Summary:

The main event for UFC 199 stays in the spirit of rematches as Luke Rockhold defends his title against Michael Bisping. Originally slated to rematch Chris Weidman, Luke will now rehash pleasantries with Michael Bisping as the Englishman was more than happy to replace the injured former champion. Despite this not being the best of circumstances for Bisping to receive his title shot, Michael is coming in confident fresh off his upset victory over Anderson Silva. But with only two weeks to prepare for a fighter like Luke Rockhold, we will soon see if Bisping’s acceptance of this challenge is courageous or foolhardy.

Being no stranger to adversity, Bisping has spent the last three years of his career fighting with one eye. Even though he has managed to hold the best striking defense in middleweight history(at a current rate of 66.7%), the Englishman has shown the tendency to lower his right hand. From preemptively parrying to clocking out early in exchanges, this habit has traditionally exposed Bisping to left hooks & high kicks. Unfortunately, this scenario cost Michael greatly in his match with Vitor Belfort as he suffered a detached retina. Although this has added to Bisping’s right-sided vulnerabilities(as seen in subsequent fights), the ever-improving martial artist has shown to make adjustments intelligently since then.

Demonstrating clean exits away from his right side(weak side), Bisping’s avoidance of Luke’s left side will be paramount given how their strengths align. With plenty of experience and sample size against southpaws, Bisping displays a solid outside foot awareness. In fact, he did a good job of executing his angles in his first encounter with Rockhold until getting caught. Although achieving the proper angles, Michael failed to commit and capitalize with his combinations. Even though Rockhold’s check hook is renown for stifling offense, the champion has a tendency to lean his head heavily to the left. We saw Vitor Belfort pick up on this habit as he searched with spinning wheel kicks to that side, and we even heard Weidman’s corner repeatedly call for Chris to expose it in their bout.

Since Bisping had that first fight with Luke, we have seen Michael make concerted efforts in improving his punch commitments under Jason Parrillo. Despite Anderson Silva’s head & trunk movement, we saw Bisping successfully achieve the follow-up left & right hooks he lacked in his initial encounter with Rockhold. Keeping himself afoot & attacking from the proper side will most certainly be Michael’s best chances in this fight, but I am not sure he will have the gas tank to support consistency. Should Bisping slow, there will be no room for rest as Rockhold reminded us of the extent of his opportunism in his last outing. Demonstrating a natural ability for technical destruction to go along with his god given frame, Rockhold could very well put a stamp on this fights momentum should he ground the Count.

I know the majority of this breakdown focused on Bisping’s perspective, but I found it particularly appropriate given the narrative of certainty for Rockhold heading into this fight. And although I may agree with the masses, I always make sure to give a fair argument for the opposing side of my pick. I was one of the few who officially took Bisping against Silva and would love to see him come through here, however, with two weeks notice it is hard to see Michael making it out of the kitchen without being burned.

Official Pick: Rockhold – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Bisping – TKO (round 1)

Summary:
Serving as the co-main event in Los Angeles is a showdown for the Bantamweight title as Dominick Cruz defends his belt against Urijah Faber. Completing what was one of the greatest career comebacks in sports history earlier this year, Dominick Cruz will attempt to ascertain his position as the best in the world. Looking to have the final say, Urijah Faber will attempt to achieve UFC gold after multiple crawls to contention. With each man holding a victory over the other, expect high-tensions in this rubber match of rivals.

Despite Dominick only fighting three times since their last encounter in comparison to Faber’s eleven, the skill progression’s/gaps in performances of each fighter is a lot closer than the numbers would suggest. Granted Cruz is an outlier of proportions that defy sample size, but he has none the less managed to return in a sharper form of himself. Utilizing “darts” & “crouches” from both sides, Cruz will continually shift stances to set up his attacks and stifle his opposition.

We saw Cruz use these tactics in his last meeting with Faber as Dominick’s movements & feints made it difficult for Urijah to get a beat on him. Subsequently, Faber was forced to look for counters for the majority of the fight. Although Faber was able to score knockdowns and keep things competitive, Cruz was ultimately able to out point him as he dictated the overall action. Not to mention, some of those knockdowns were scored on Dominick as he was switching stances, as being caught off balance is a common defensive side-effect of shifting.

Regardless of their first encounter, Urijah has made improvements of his own in the past few years. Despite his reluctant/rocky relationship with Duane Ludwig, Faber has shown much tighter technique as he strikes with more purpose and process since his time spent with Ludwig. Utilizing feints more intelligently, Urijah will now incorporate more jabs & hooks to set up his patent right hand. These skills will be crucial if Faber means to abandon his prior approach countering, as I suspect he may do in this fight. But the problem in being aggressive with Dominick Cruz is that you will likely play right into his hand.

As we saw in last fight with TJ Dillashaw(and as was stated in my breakdown prior), Cruz will utilize a style of shifting to counter aggression referred to as “opening the gate” in traditional martial arts. Often from the crouch position, Dominick will swing his lead foot back as this will not only switch his stance but change the overall terms of the exchange. Done in a way that lends a false sense of perception to his opponent, this technique flows fluidly into Cruz’s check hooks which counters aggressive on-comers as this was apparent in his last outing.

Although Faber will most certainly need to have that on his radar, I feel that the uppercut may play a role in this matchup. A possible carry-over from his level-changing takedown feints, Faber’s head will often come dangerously low and forward in his entries. Not only can you see this cost him uppercuts in his last match with Cruz, but Urijah was also caught similarly in recent bouts with Frankie Saenz & Cisco Rivera. Cruz, who commonly uppercuts off his crouches, has seemingly sharpened this technique as it was very present in his last bout.

Similar to Dillashaw versus Cruz, I do not expect prolonged ground stanzas given each man’s ability to scramble effectively. Although I suspect both men will have motives to take the other down, they both embody styles that seem to stifle each other. Favoring low-risk positional rides, Cruz’s more catch-style of wrestling often keeps him from overcommitting himself into traps & reversals. Urijah, on the other hand, thrives on grappling chaos as he is quick to initiate a scramble. Faber’s disregard for what are traditionally bad positions is why he is so difficult to hold down. Electing to turtle out from the bottom, Urijah will often risk getting his back taken as we saw in his fight with Iuri Alcantara.

However, with Cruz’s said style I see these exchanges leading to get-ups as it did in their second encounter. And just like in that fight, I feel Faber’s best chances here will be by striking off the breaks. With Dominick disguising his entries with everything short of a smoke bomb, I suspect Urijah will once again look to unload on the exits. A Faber win would make for a fantastic story, but I ultimately see his stylistic chances as a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” scenario. Faber can either approach aggressively or gamble on the counter shot, but I see both paths playing into the champions style and likely the scorecards as well.

Official Pick: Cruz – Decision

Official Outcome: Cruz – Decision

Summary:

In a fun featherweight affair, number five-ranked Ricardo Lamas squares off against number four-ranked Max Holloway in a high-stakes matchup. Despite being thrown to the wolves early on in his UFC career, Max Holloway has steadily learned to swim as he now finds himself on the brink of title contention. Looking to stop Max’s 8-fight winning streak is former title challenger Ricardo Lamas. Snapping Dennis Bermudez’s 7-fight streak back in 2014, Lamas is no stranger to playing the spoiler.

As impressive as Holloway’s winning ways have been, he has yet to face a strong wrestling threat since a razor-thin decision loss to Dennis Bermudez back in 2013. Although Max has shown brilliant glimpses of ground progress in his subsequent bouts, Ricardo’s wrestling prowess alone should raise stylistic flags coming into this fight. That said, I am not so sure Ricardo’s style will mix well with Max in the overall scheme of things.

Starting off on the feet, Lamas is deceptively fast off the foot as he demonstrates a diverse arsenal of kicks. Despite showing improved check hooks and head movement off of his strikes, Lamas has struggled to develop a presence in the pocket as he favors an all-the-way-in or all-the-way-out approach. Often striking in straight lines, Ricardo heavily relies on his speed and reactionary level changes to keep him safe. What I found particularly strange upon reviewing tape on Lamas was his complete lack of counter striking, as Ricardo almost always elects to defend and will only attack after resetting comfortably.

Against a striker who utilizes angles and unrelenting volume such as Holloway, Lamas may find difficulty in dictating the range and finding his shots. Max also does an excellent job of incorporating feints with his footwork, which could do him wonders in this fight when you consider Ricardo’s propensity to bite hard with parries. Subtly switching stances as he shifts laterally, Max will deceptively draw his opposition into following him as he executes attacks that catch them off guard. Showing superb timing, Holloway will usually wait till his opposition is in mid-motion before attacking and angling off.

Holloway’s commitment to mixing up these techniques traditionally make takedowns difficult to setup. Especially for someone like Lamas, who favors his attempts when his opposition’s back is to the cage. Treating the fence like it is electrically charged, you will seldom find Holloway hanging out in this space. Even when he is found or confined here, Max demonstrates solid defensive fundamentals to accompany his slick grip fighting as this allows him to counter clinches effectively.More importantly, Max display superb strikes off the break as I see that being a key factor in this fight.

With Lamas reluctant to counter as he circles out, look for Holloway’s strikes off clinch breaks and exits to help sway momentum his way. Ultimately, I feel Max’s volume, feints, and movement will freeze up Ricardo’s overall game. Whether by scorecards or late stoppage, I expect the featherweight division to have a new title contender.

Official Pick: Holloway – Decision

Official Outcome: Holloway – Decision

Summary:

In a middleweight matchup of two accoladed veterans, Dan Henderson welcomes Hector Lombard back to the division. Moving up from welterweight, Hector was hungry for a quick turnaround after a disappointing loss to Neil Magny in March. Also looking to get back into the cage after an extended camp, the legendary Dan Henderson will once again attempt to get back on the path to glory.

In what feels like a heavyweight affair, both men still carry the knockout power and aggressive natures that got them to the dance. However, Hector is the fighter who has shown to maintain his reaction times as he should hold a clear speed advantage. That said, Lombards athletic supremacy does not come without a caveat. Demonstrating a propensity to fade as the fight goes on, Hector is very dangerous in the first round and subject to activity lulls throughout contests.

Should Henderson weather an early storm, the savvy veteran could potentially exploit Lombard as the battle wears on. The problem with that is, I am not sure how confident I am that Dan’s chin will hold as he has been dropped or stopped in 7/10 of his last fights. Not only that, but Henderson’s on-paper tendencies may play into Hector’s on-paper strengths. Often leaning his head heavily to the right, Henderson keeps his devastating H-Bomb loaded. However, this habit leads Dan into the power side of southpaw attacks as we saw in his most recent bouts with Vitor Belfort.

Although Hector does not possess the kicking acumen of Belfort, the Cuban Olympian does wield a destructive left uppercut as this was the culprit in Dan’s first stoppage loss to Vitor. Henderson will not only have to mind this on his entries but also the deceptive check right hook of Hector. Dan’s best chances of winning this fight may come from his counter right hand as opposed to his traditional offensive H-Bomb. As we saw in his fights with Fedor Emelianenko & Tim Boetsch, Henderson can still be a threat when going backward. If Lombard sleeps on Dan’s abilities here, he may be in for a rude awakening.

Despite Henderson’s well-accoladed career in clinch fighting, he may not have the technical edge in this matchup as he was accustom to early in his career. A technically competent fire hydrant inside the clinch, Hector has been proven difficult to deal with as he bears explosive trips & tosses that he carried over from his Judo background. I am not sure that Henderson can successfully navigate Lombard’s threats at this stage of his career as I feel Hector will use clinch opportunities to stall or score points.

Although it may not sound like it from reading this summary, I have been a huge Dan Henderson fan for the past decade of following this sport. There is nothing more I would love to see than Hendo ride off into the sunset with a win, but I am not sure that this is the matchup for that.

Official Pick: Lombard – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Henderson – KO (round 1)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card is a fantastic scrap in the lightweight division as Dustin Poirier takes on the returning Bobby Green. Plagued with injuries & adversities in the most recent chapters of Green’s career, Bobby will look to regain the momentum he had before his last fight against Edson Barboza back in 2014. Standing in the way of Green’s homecoming is Dustin Poirier, who has shown an incredible resurgence since moving back up the 155-pounds.

From their street personas to their technical skill sets, it is hard to imagine a scenario where this fight is not exciting. Although I expect this match to hit the mat on multiple occasions, I feel each man’s wrestling and scrambling abilities will make the majority of this fight play out standing. Despite his accoladed wrestling base, Bobby Green prefers to stand and strike with his opposition.

Stalking forward, Green will switch his stances up and often lead with a variety of kicks or darting left hands. Although criticized for keeping his hands low, Green is deceptively competent in slipping & rolling with punches as he utilizes a variation of the Philly Shell. Coupled with an in-fight trash talking acumen, Bobby’s style of approach often puts doubt or draws out his opposition prematurely as he looks to capitalize in exchanges.

Despite Green’s accusations of previous opponents avoiding exchanges, I doubt he will have to worry about that in this fight as Dustin Poirier is always willing to oblige. Consistently using a healthy variety of strikes, Poirier displays a technical aggression that at a certain point was beginning to cost him at featherweight. However, since moving up the lightweight, Dustin has shored up his footwork and defenses while maintaining his volume.

Regardless Poirier’s shown technical improvements, his aggressive stylings naturally leave him within the range of strikes. Left hands, in particular, have traditionally troubled Dustin as his right-hand has a tendency to lower in exchanges. Considering that Bobby is very active & accurate from his left side, this may be Green’s best opportunities to score in this fight. That said, Dustin has made concerted efforts in his boxing technique since his original appointment with Joe Duffy, as Poirier has been consistently working with top talent in Florida.

I believe the key intangible in this fight lies within the wrestling engagements. Many would argue that Green has under-used his underrated grappling skills throughout his UFC career, but I doubt that trend will change for this fight considering Poirier’s finishing prowess on the floor. Not just a multi-versed submission threat, it is Dustin’s activity and ability to scramble that makes the scrappy fighter a handful. I feel that Poirier should be able to largely dictate the grappling stanzas if he can ground Green, but getting him down will certainly be the big question.

Even though Bobby maintains an upright approach, his fast-twitch reactions and footwork make it difficult for his opposition to get in on his hips from the open. However, Green has shown susceptible to takedowns when forced against the fence. Luckily for Dustin, he specializes in cutting off the cage and forcing his opposition backward. Traditionally overwhelming his opponents with volume and dirty boxing, Poirier’s shown takedown motives & improvements off the fence will likely serve him well in this fight(or score with the judges at the very least).

With neither man the type to go quietly into the night, expect a close and competitive war. Although the skill set of Green can pose some serious problems for Dustin on paper, I feel that the intangibles stack heavily in the favor of Poirier. Although his aggression has got him caught speeding before, I believe Poirier’s shown fight-to-fight improvements(and seemingly upgraded chin) will ultimately see him through. If Green fails to hurt Dustin or sway the momentum early, I could see him getting outworked on the judges scorecards.

Official Pick: Poirier – Decision

Official Outcome: Poirier – TKO (round 1)

Preliminary Card Predictions

• Ortega def. Guida
• Dariush def. Vick
• Penne def. Andrade
• Miller def. Caceres
• Breese def. Strickland
• Wilson def. Da Silva
• Mutapcic def. Casey
• Kim def. Reyes

For the complete analysis of future & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com