Summary:

Headlining UFC Vegas is the most potent firefight of the entire card, as Thomas Almeida squares off against Cody Garbrandt. In the rare meeting of young undefeated prospects, it is matchup’s like these that make you feel like Christmas has come early. Similar to when John Lineker fought Francisco Rivera, we will be in store for a bantamweight scrap that bears heavyweight intangibles in regards to power.

Starting off on the feet, both men employ aggressive approaches but in different ways. Almeida, the more persistent stalker, and forward mover, embodies the classic Chute Boxe stylings of old. Covering distance quickly and parlaying his marches appropriately, Almeida displays variety & volume as he fires off preset combinations at the drop of a dime. What is even more impressive than the Brazilian’s striking flow, is the fact that he rarely finds himself out of position despite his voracious approach.

Often entering with his hard right-hand(or elbow depending on the range), Almeida will accentuate his combinations off of his left side. Thomas particularly favors finishing with left hooks to the liver, as he will also unabashedly quark screw uppercuts inside the pocket. Although lacking the outside leg & head kicks demonstrated by his stablemates, Almeida handily makes up for it with his use of the left leg. Parlaying his previously mentioned Thai marches, Almeida beautifully mixes up his inside leg kicks with devastating knees off the shuffle.

Despite his impressive offensive tools, the Brazilian’s inherent aggression has allowed him to take more damage than many think he should. Although Almeida keeps his hands high with improved pocket awareness, his constant fearless attempt for the finish often encourages him to overstay his welcome inside range. Thomas has been able to get away with his fan-friendly recklessness thus far, but he will be certainly playing with fire against the combination & counter prowess of Garbrandt.

Carrying a similar narrative, Cody is also an offense-first fighter. Sharing similar defensive criticisms as his opponent Almeida, Garbrandt has since shored up many of his liabilities since working with Brandon Gibson. Always a skilled boxer, Cody has been able to get away with his aggression through his natural toughness & durability. Realizing the problems with that approach early in his career, we have since seen Garbrandt incorporate much-improved head movement and angling off of his strikes.

In fact, I feel Garbrandt’s ability to slip off angles will be a key factor in this fight. Using his aggressive engagements to bait exchanges, Cody will subtly & slightly move off center to execute his combinations. Like Almeida, Garbrandt will also initiate action with his heavy right hand, but does his cleanup-hitting with the left. I feel Cody’s left hook, in particular, will serve him well in this contest. As seen in Almeida’s bout with Brad Pickett, the Brazilian often keeps and resets his head within range. Despite retracting his hands high, this habit has led Almeida into left hooks on multiple occasions.

Garbrandt’s biggest enemy in this fight will likely be himself. Never one to back down from a brawl, Cody has a tendency to get emotional if the action is not to his liking. If he fails to keep his emotions in check against a destroyer like Almeida, he will likely find himself in the eye of the storm. However, unlike his opposition, Garbrandt wields an explosive power-double takedown that could add an interesting fold to this fight. Whether countering his opponents aggression or solidifying a round, Cody’s ability to take this fight to the floor may prove crucial. That said, Almeida has shown wrestling proficiency of his own with his underrated get-up ability.

Given each fighters stylings and ability to scramble effectively, I doubt we will see prolonged ground stanzas. I believe this fight will be decided by mere inches on the feet, making certainties for either side hard to argue. However, after putting this one under the microscope, I feel Almeida’s approach may end up costing him in this stylistic standoff. Regardless of who you like here, make no mistake about it, this is a gun fight.

Official Pick: Garbrandt – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Garbrandt – KO (round 1)

Summary:

In a creative co-main event matchup, former bantamweight champion Renan Barao moves up to featherweight to face Jeremy Stephens. After losing his title to the hands of TJ Dillashaw, Barao has since struggled to regain the form & ferocity he had early in his UFC career. No longer having to diminish himself with the cut to 135, Barao will look for a fresh start at featherweight. Welcoming the former champ to the division, Stephens will look to use this opportunity to maintain his relevancy in the standings as he has dropped 3 of 4 of his last fights. With all of Stephens’ recent losses coming by competitive decisions, his record may be deceiving as Jeremy has proved his status of a live dog time & time again.

That said, judges scorecards and on-paper advantages may not matter considering the serendipitous matchup of these two violent strikers. Stalking in a similar fashion to his Nova Uniao stablemates, Barao traditionally comes forward with a full clip on the ready. Wielding a classic Muay Thai repertoire, Renan will occasionally show his wild side with surprisingly accurate spinning attacks. Although his right-hand is most prominent on the highlight reels, Barao possesses an effective left hook that may serve him well in this fight.

Even in his devastating losses to TJ Dillashaw, Renan Barao was still able to land left hooks throughout the contest(especially when thrown as a check). Against an aggressive striker like Stephens, a check hook can become your best friend as we saw Yves Edwards find success with this in his fight with Jeremy. Never the less, the surface level of Barao’s striking skills can be deceiving as we have recently seen the former champion’s aggressive style taken to task in the last two years.

Despite his dynamic attack ability, Barao has steadily become predictable in his plots. These subtle dips in his step often tip off Renan’s oncoming attacks, as his aggression has seemingly enabled him to overstay his welcome in exchanges of late. Barao also reverts to a shell defense, that coupled with his dipping tendencies, have traditionally exposed the Brazilian to uppercuts. Considering Stephens throws a devastating uppercut, I feel this will be a key punch to look for from the little heathen.

In a similar spirit, Stephens also presents a unique threat in the form of knees that may see some light in this fight. As he brilliantly stated after his victory over Dennis Bermudez, Stephens will look for his opposition to heavily put their weight over their front foot, as this opens up knees and uppercuts. Considering Renan consistently keeps heavy on his front foot, this could be something to look for as Barao comes forward.

I feel that Barao’s best chances of closing this show will be on the floor or in transition. Although I am not sure how Renan’s size will translate to this division, he possesses an underrated strength and takedown ability inside the clinch. Even though Stephens has some solid wrestling ability of his own, he was taken down from the clinch in his last three fights. Never the less, Stephens will be at his highest risk while transitioning back to his feet. Often turtling-out to stand, Stephens runs the risk of getting his back taken by the more proficient scrambler in Barao.

Stephens is no slouch in defending submissions as we saw him successfully thwart the attempts of specialist, Charles Oliveira for three rounds. Demonstrating intelligent grip fighting, a sober Stephens may prove difficult to catch. That said, a single back take from Barao could cost him a round positionally as it did with Oliveira. Although I do not disagree with Renan coming in as a slight favorite, I am not sure a durable knockout artist will be the best matchup for Barao to get his groove back.

Official Pick: Stephens – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Stephens – Unanimous decision

Summary:

In a welterweight pairing that promises action, Tarec Saffiedine will take on the returning Rick Story. Due to a recent run of injuries, we have not seen Rick Story in action since his 5-round victory over Gunnar Nelson back in October of 2014. Now with a clean bill of health, Rick will look to use this main card spot to continue his journey.

Standing in his way is Tarec Saffiedine, who has also struggled with fight activity due to injuries in the past few years of his career. With an undisclosed injury sustained late in Tarec’s camp, it will be interesting to see how close to competition level he will be. With that intangible stated, let’s take a look at how these two stack up technically.

Although Story has shown striking improvements since moving shop to the MMA Lab, Saffiedine is still the superior striker on-paper. One of the most proficient switch-stance fighters in the UFC, Tarec will effectively fire off jabs from both sides as this allows him to dictate and disrupt striking tempos. With Tarec’s patent leg kicks that usually come behind his straight punches, Saffiedine’s approach should be straight-forward against an aggressive looping puncher like Story.

That said, Story has shown time and time again that his application of aggression is not as simple as it seems. Displaying improved head movement and an understanding of angles, Rick has shown to be just as dangerous off the counter as he is coming forward. In fact, Story shifts particularly well going backward, as he scored knockdowns against Kelvin Gastelum & Gunnar Nelson by deceptively countering on retreats.

With Saffiedine possessing the advantages at range, he will likely be trying to avoid pocket exchanges with Story. However, Tarec will need to be careful when exiting the pocket as his last three knockdowns(or times he was clearly stunned) have all come off the break. Since Story is most dangerous when striking off the break, I suspect this will be a key factor in this fight.

Even though Saffiedine more than has the skill and stamina to stick & move, he habitually finds himself operating from the outside which could be a detriment in this fight. A persistent pressure fighter by nature, Story is most consistent with his combinations when his opposition is in between the fence and inner-Octagon lines. If Saffiedine chooses to circle inside Story’s preferred kill zone, he will need to be as sharp as a sword.

Given each man’s styling, I doubt we will see prolonged stalemates on the floor. I do feel that Story is the better on-paper grappler, and will have more motive and ability to take this match to the mat. However, Tarec is an underrated grappler, as there is more than meets the eye in his takedown defense. As a fan of technicians, Saffiedine has always been a fun watch since his days in Strikeforce. That said, I do not feel this is a good style matchup for him, as I once again preach the underdog value of a durable southpaw.

Official Pick: Story – Decision

Official Outcome: Story – Decision

Summary:

In a Muay Thai maelstrom at middleweight, UFC staple Chris Camozzi takes on the surging Brazilian veteran Vitor Miranda. In a fight that measures up to be an all-out war, each man will look to parlay their recent momentum by taking full advantage of this main card showcase.

Although both fighters strike from Muay Thai bases, Miranda is the more technically refined practitioner as his well-accoladed past would suggest. Like Chris Camozzi, Miranda’s striking was also stifled early on in his MMA career due to grappling pressure. Since Vitor’s debut with the UFC, we have seen steady improvements in his takedown defense and overall wrestling ability. Even though Miranda often retreats toward the fence, he demonstrates comfort & efficiency in operating from this space.

Staying calm and collected, Miranda’s defenses and get-up ability usually forces his opposition to exert much more energy than he does. That said, he will likely not have to worry about this with Chris Camozzi. As his statistic accolades would suggest, the long & durable Camozzi prefers to make his money at range. Staying behind an active jab, Chris keeps a consistent flow of leg kicks coming as he does a good job of mixing in teeps and mid-level kicks. These tools coupled with his ability to dictate range will likely be Camozzi’s best chances at a victory.

Even though Camozzi has solid offensive accuracy he can stand by, his willingness to exchange has shown to expose him defensively. Displaying a tendency to keep his head upright(especially when exiting space), Camozzi traditionally takes damage in both victory and defeat. Chris also tends to keep/retract his left-hand low when exchanging, which could cost him against the attacks that Miranda brings from that side. Wielding deceptively accurate jabs and leg kicks of his own, Miranda will smoothly sneak his patented right head kick over his opposition’s shoulder.

Durable southpaws often make for deceptive underdogs, but unless Camozzi can establish his terms early, he may find himself outclassed by a superior striker. And even though Chris’s chin has allowed him to surmount comebacks before, his propensity to take shots may get him burned here as he will surely be playing with fire.

Official Pick: Miranda – Decision

Official Outcome: Camozzi – Decision

Summary:

The fight that I am looking forward to most resides in the welterweight division, as fan favorites Jorge Masvidal and Lorenz Larkin face-off. Both men were 2-0 since making the move to 170-pounds until dropping close decisions in their most recent bouts. Masvidal lost a razor thin decision to the former champion Benson Henderson last year in Korea, whereas Larkin found himself on the wrong side of the scorecards in a close contest with Albert Tumenov. No stranger to suspect scorecards, Masvidal will look to combat his criminally underrated career by leaving this one out of the judges hands. And with a willing dance partner like Lorenz Larkin, we should be in for quite the show.

Both men are technically sound strikers, as they each demonstrate diversity & flexibility whether they are attacking or countering. However, both men also struggle with pressure fighting as I suspect that will be the key factor in this fight. For my money, whoever decides to lead first on the dance floor should have the edge in striking exchanges. In looking at each fighter’s ring generalship that man will probably be Masvidal, as he employs the more straight forward approach.

Although Lorenz is more than capable of effectively coming forward, he tends to favor using his creativity at range. Larkin usually carries a speed advantage over his opposition that compliments his footwork and anti-grappling agenda. Given the looming grappling threat of one of American Top Team’s most underrated wrestlers, I suspect Lorenz will stay on his horse when attacking Masvidal. Despite being a former light-heavyweight, I suspect Larkin will still have a slight speed advantage over Jorge.

If Larkin can dictate the distance and draw Jorge into a battle of range-finding, he will have his best chances of picking apart Masvidal as I see leg kicks in particular being effective. Although Jorge’s footwork is not as flamboyant as Larkin’s, he closes the distance deceptively well as he utilizes subtle angles to enter. What makes Masvidal such sound stalker is the fact that you will rarely catch him out of position. Not only does this keep Masvidal’s striking & countering arsenals open, but it also lends to his takedown defense, as he consistently keeps balance in his form.

Should Masvidal get his pressure game going, we may seem him expose some of Larkin’s defensive tendencies. Although Lorenz moves well laterally, he will often retreat toward the cage in a Philly Shell(Power hand high with head tucked into the lead shoulder as the lead hand hangs low). Traditionally, this has opened up Lorenz to right hands when caught up against the cage(as seen in his fights with Philippou & Brunson). Considering Lorenz tends to circle on the outside, he could be playing with fire whenever he finds himself between the fence and inner-black Octagon lines.

With the biggest skill differential residing in the grappling department, Larkin will need to be especially mindful in clinch situations. Although Lorenz has made improvements to counter-grapple from in close, his over-prioritization of defending takedowns ultimately limits his offensive threats & overall clinch game. Against a multifaceted threat like Masvidal, Larkin may likely find himself in trouble, especially if Jorge takes this fight to the floor. Even if Lorenz can break the clinch and avoid being taken down, he will still need to be careful when exiting space, as even a lackadaisical Masvidal is consistent with striking off the breaks.

I am self admittedly a huge fan of both fighters, but have a hard time going against the man with the bigger arsenal. Without seeing Larkin’s ground game since his 2014 bout with Derek Brunson, it is hard to make a fair assessment of where he stands. That said, their sample sizes of grappling acumen seem to reside on separate ends of the spectrum, as Masvidal’s craft & in-fight IQ is on another level. With neither fighter the type to go quietly, this is likely your early contender for Fight of the Night.

Official Pick: Masvidal – Decision

Official Outcome: Larkin – Decision

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX Sports 1 is fantastic lightweight scrap as the veteran, Josh “The People’s Warrior” Burkman draws the always dangerous Paul “The Irish Dragon” Felder. With both men recently righting their ships with hard-fought victories, this fight will be a good measuring stick for the current momentum of each fighter’s career.

Starting off on the feet, I suspect we will see a classic pairing of aggressive stalkers & counter fighters as each combatant is consistent with their approach. Felder is the more forward moving fighter, as he will utilize a variation of Thai-marching to stalk & feint his way inside. Whereas Burkman primarily makes his money off the counter, as he will parlay his aggression(and chin) into high-risk exchanges. I expect Josh will lean on his craftiness from the outside, as he will look to play matador with the oncoming Irish Dragon.

Although Burkman can powerfully variate his attacks from both stances, he primarily throws from his right side. That does not mean Josh is a one-sided fighter, but throwing from his left-side may serve him well in this fight. Burkman has a solid left hook in particular that may find its home, especially when you look at Felder’s past performances against fighters like Ross Pearson. That said, Felder may be harder to counter than expected.

Despite being known for his forward pressure, Felder does a good job at feinting his way inside. As we saw in Burkman’s fight with Cote, he struggles to find his rhythm when being drawn out prematurely with feints. I expect that this facet of Felder’s game has only improved since moving shop to New Jersey to train with Mark Henry & company. If Felder can bait Josh effectively, we may see his striking variety and volume advantages come to life.

Burkman’s best bet may come by mixing in his underrated takedown game. As we saw in Josh’s last fight, he still demonstrates the ability to change gears when he needs to. However, Burkman scores most of his takedowns off the fence, a place Felder is very familiar defending from. Demonstrating a fundamental understanding of takedown defense, Paul has steadily improved his abilities in counter grappling. In his last fight, we saw his progression here, as he was able to threaten and eventually finish with his deceptive submission acumen.

As a fan of tough veterans like Burkman, you cannot be too quick to count someone out. That said, all the on-paper signs point to the Irish Dragon in what I imagine will be a three round war.

Official Pick: Felder – Decision

Official Outcome: Felder – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions

• McMann def. Eye
• Trujillo def. Rinaldi
• Uda def. Collier
• Campbell def. Koch
• Caraway def. Sterling
• Milstead def. De La Rocha

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