Summary:

The main event on FOX is a classic styles match as two of the division’s most respected competitors in Demain Maia and Carlos Condit collide. Mentioning the possibility of retirement following his fight-of-the-year candidate with Robbie Lawler last January, the Natural Born Killer has apparently rethought his stance as he now meets Demian Maia. Arguably the division’s top contender next to Stephen Thompson, Maia will look to cement his case by extending his five-fight winning streak against a dangerous fan-favorite and perennial Top-5 fighter.

Although this fight has much more depth than your typical “striker versus grappler” matchup, Carlos Condit has the clear advantages on paper for however long this contest remains on the feet. Although the New Mexican native may not lean heavily on his in patent kicking diversities, his renown knees, and elbows will undoubtedly be at play. More importantly, I feel the improvements within Condit’s boxing and footwork(which I suspect is in thanks to Brandon Gibson) will be crucial in keeping him a threat standing. Despite Demian not likely exchanging with Condit(as this has been his trend since dropping to welterweight), the Brazilian has some legitimate striking tools that could serve him well in this fight.

Even though Carlos has made excellent improvements in his offensive head movement, his head still tends to go upright upon retreat as he slightly leans to his right side. This tendency has traditionally made Carlos more open to left hands as opposed to anything else. With Maia’s straight left being his most effective strike, expect the Brazilian to look for this on the feet when aiming to get Condit’s attention or respect. Aside from that, let us not get too hung up in the striking realm as this fight will likely be decided by the grappling exchanges. With that in mind, it can be easy to see this as a trap fight for Carlos as wrestling pressure has seemingly been the common culprit in most of his defeats.

When you consider that Maia is 17-2 in the UFC when able to score a minimum of just 1-takedown, it is hard not to see a path for the Brazilian to take against Condit. However, numbers do not always tell the story in our sport as there are multiple takeaways here. Although 84-passes in 23-fights looks impressive, it could also suggest that Maia can dominate from bell-to-bell within his own realm and still not produce a finish. Now that is no critique on Demian, as his style secures him rounds and is exciting for grappling fans such as myself to watch. That said, Maia’s style of grueling but steady pressure has gotten him into trouble late in fights where he could not find the finish.

Although those trends may be troubling, you cannot deny the mastery in which Maia operates. Most impressive are the evolutions of his wrestling, as Demian has found a style that melds his MMA and Jiu-jitsu game into one solid sword. Not only does Demian wield an improved reactive shot that serves him well against aggressive strikers, but it is his ability to produce results against the cage that will likely come to light in this fight. Deceptively strong inside the clinch, Maia demonstrates an excellent use of under-hooks and a preternatural ability to keep his hips in close. What is most fun to watch is the slick leg dexterity in which Demian utilizes to finish his takedowns, as his background in Judo and Karate show themselves in these spaces of sweeps & trips.

Despite Condit’s quiet improvements to his takedown defense under grappling guru Ricky Lundell, I do not doubt that Maia will be successful in getting this fight to the floor on multiple occasions. That said, it is the skill sets & knowledge that a coach like Ricky Lundell can bring to Carlos that are so valuable, as we have seen steady improvements in their subsequent camps together. Often compared to Maia’s previous opponent in Matt Brown, Carlos conducts himself in an aggressive manner from the bottom, as he falls back on his breakneck pace to eventually win out fights should his submissions fail. That said, I feel Condit offers a much more technical and diverse game than Brown(which is no slight on Brown), as I feel Carlos’ guard-game may be a crucial stifling point in this fight.

Like many long framed grapplers, Condit poses the problems you would expect from the bottom, whether it is high-guard options or the angles in which he can get leverage on his submission attempts. However, it is the intricacies of Carlos’ guard game that will at the very least give Demian a different look than he has been accustom to in the UFC. Not just using his long legs to climb into attack positions from the guard, Condit is one of the few guard players north of the UFC’s lightweight division, who maintains persistent efforts in hip elevation and debasing his opposition. Preferring to operate out of a guard variation known as K-control, Carlos will under-hook his opponent’s leg as he looks to slide his shin across the belly and up into the chest of his opposition. This combination allows Condit to compromise the base of his opponent while opening up offense on his terms. Assisting this effort is Carlos’ free hand, in which he will either use to throw strategic strikes(in a baiting effort) or help win the defensive/offensive grip battles.

From here, Condit has a multitude of submission threats from triangle chokes to leg-locks or options of sweeps and scrambles. Although I feel that K control is a great tool for MMA in the appropriate hands, I am sure that Maia should have an answer for this as well as any other guard type you throw at him. That said, I believe that this guard style is the antithesis to Maia’s top game in regards to styles that will make him work. Similar to the great Rickson Gracie, Demian focuses his game on the mastery of fundamentals. Although you cannot understate the effectiveness of his approach, the Brazilian often takes the same path each time when advancing from topside.

Maintaining consistent pressure, Demain will elevate his hips as he utilizes his leg dexterity to complete leg-weaves or knee-slice passes. With Condit’s guard style providing him with an initial wall to work behind, it will be interesting to see how he uses this space as his activity will likely make Maia earn his advances. In my opinion, the key-junction in this fight will take place within the scrambles created by these scenarios. Although Carlos is one of the best at getting back to his feet, he tends to turtle out sometimes, which could give your back to a specialist like Maia. That is where I feel Ricky Lundell’s presence will come in handy, as Carlos now shows the hand-fighting and wrestling awareness that may help him navigate these spots.

Though Condit’s slow burn will likely cost him takedowns as well as rounds early on, I feel that the on-paper advantages of Maia will start to unwind should he not find a finish by the third(a round where he traditionally tires). We all talk about a “1st round Rumble” or “5th round Robbie“, but my favorite MMA trope is the “3rd round Carlos Condit”. Whether we are talking about the head kick landed on St. Pierre, the momentum shifts against Diaz & Lawler, or the demon that came out to fight Johny Hendricks in their final frame, a “3rd round Carlos Condit” is a consistent and dangerous being. Please do not mistake my enthusiasm for bias, as a dominate performance and finish by Demian would not surprise me, nor should it surprise you as I caution playing this one. Although I do believe that Maia has the tools to win the majority of the battles, I feel that Condit will have the proper intangibles to win the war.

Official Pick: Condit – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Maia – Submission (round 1)

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC on FOX is a promising predicament as the former lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis drops down to featherweight to meet Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. Coming off of a 3-fight losing skid, Anthony Pettis is searching for a career rejuvenation at a weight-class he has long talked about visiting. Looking to the play the spoiler, former lightweight Charles Oliveira will once again welcome another fighter to the division.

Despite Pettis coming down a division, he will be the smaller and shorter man on fight night. Not only that, but Oliveira is accustom to fighting larger men as most of his UFC competition have been current or former lightweights. That said, Pettis should have the advantage for as long as this fight stays standing. Although Oliveira has a decent Muay Thai game, he has shown little adjustments over the course of his UFC tenor. Although he has made some improvements in the areas of footwork and defense, the long framed Brazilian naturally seems to keep upright in both his approaches and retreats.

Consistently reverting to a shell-defense, Charles has traditionally been susceptible to body shots. In fact, 2 of 3 TKO losses sustained by Oliveira were triggered by body shots that seemingly crippled the Brazilian. Whether or not this specific fragility is due to the issues Oliveira has had making the weight(officially missing the limit 3 times at featherweight), body kicks will be the strike to look out for considering Pettis throws them with impunity. However, Anthony may not throw them so liberally given that body kicks are the easiest to get turned into takedowns(as seen in Oliveira’s last fight with Jury).

In my opinion, Pettis will still have an edge in these scenarios given his speed, and the fact that Charles carries himself so upright that you rarely see him in a position to capitalize. Regardless of Anthony’s advantages standing, the key-junction in this fight will take place inside the clinch. A place where Oliveira prefers to score his takedowns from, Anthony’s anti-clinching abilities will be put to the test here. Despite losing close scorecards due to control time in his contest with Eddie Alvarez, Pettis displayed steady improvements to his defense and base maintenance.

Pettis did an efficient job of using the fence to stand, as the found a nice balance between not fully turtling out nor fully giving his head in the process. Given Oliveira’s back taking tendencies and his acumen for chokes off a front headlock, Pettis will need to be on point when looking to get back to his feet. With Anthony having a similar taste for submissions in regards to guillotine & guard attacks, he should have an inherent edge in sniffing out the sneaky Brazilian’s attempts. That said, it is not the first attempt of Oliveira you need to worry about, as the Brazilian chains submissions like he is firing them from an M-60 machine gun.

One-after-another, Oliveira needs only but a limb to initiate his sticky style of clinching, as Charles will use his diverse approach to force his opposition into poor decision making. Capitalizing on the drop of a dime, Oliveira will dive onto a submission as his attacks come in interweaving waves. I do not doubt that Pettis has the technical wherewithal to withstand as I’m sure he is well-trained, but the real question that underlines this fight for me is his mental state. With the main stretch of his UFC career coming in the form of quick nights at the office, it is not hard to see why Anthony got so high to take this fall in the first place. Still well within his prime at the age of 29, Pettis has not suffered the traditional miles that many others have thus far in his career.

With his physical capabilities arguably in full working order, I feel that the psychology of Pettis will be more of a factor in this fight than the actual weight cut. Although Anthony tends to operate near the fence(the preferred place for Oliveira’s takedowns), I feel that his lateral movement and anti-clinch acumen will allow him to get off in the big cage. Assuming that Anthony comes in clear and operating at a minimum of 75%, I suspect he will find a finish before the final bell. However, I would be lying to you if I said I was confident in picking Pettis given his recent trend. With Oliveira being more live than the odds suggest, I recommend caution playing this one as I’ll be sitting back and enjoying the fireworks.

Official Pick: Pettis – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Pettis – Submission (round 3)

Summary:

In what should be a fun fight in the strawweight division, Paige VanZant squares off with Bec Rawlings. Coming off a brief hiatus in which Paige participated in ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars”, the young VanZant will look to bounce back from her first UFC loss suffered last December. Seeking to play the spoiler is Bec Rawlings, an Australian contestant of TUF 20 who will look to build some more momentum since coming away with a win last March.

Starting off on the feet, I suspect Rawlings should hold a clear technical advantage in regards to striking. An often underrated striker, the Australian has made improvements to her overall game since moving shop to Alliance MMA in San Diego. Despite not kicking as much as Paige, nor most of her opposition, Rawlings does deceptively well at range once establishing her in-and-out rhythms. Working behind an improved jab, Bec often opts to finish her combinations with left hooks and uppercuts. Considering that VanZant has yet to display defensive head movement of note, expect the Australian’s punches to be live and seeking so long as this fight stays standing.

Despite traditionally eating shots on her way in, VanZant turns into a Tazmanian Devil in regards to her work rate on the inside. A decent dirty boxer herself, Paige will quickly change her agenda to takedowns as she does a good job of getting her opposition against the cage. Regardless of her success in grounding Bec, expect Paige to push for these positions as Rawlings has typically struggled here in the past. With VanZant likely looking to ground Bec, she will need to be careful in the way in which she favors going for takedowns. Often over-committing to hip tosses or head & arm throws, Paige tends to expose her back when failing upon executions.

Although VanZant is arguably the better scrambler, Bec shows a knack for taking backs in those situations where she can find her opponents turtled. That said, we have seen the Paige is no easy out in regards to submission attempts and her ability to take a shot. Despite Bec being no slouch with her ground striking acumen from topside, I feel that the scrambling ability of Paige will expose the previous problems of Rawlings’ career against girls who can out-position & scramble her with consistency. Although I am officially picking VanZant, I strongly disagree with the current betting lines as I feel this is closer to a pick em fight. With Rawlings’ power, size and experience being making her a live dog, I would caution any strong plays either way for the current asking prices.

Official Pick: VanZant – Decision

Official Outcome: VanZant – TKO (round 2)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX is a rematch between two of the most beloved lightweights to compete in the division, as Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller square off one more time. Since their epic battle four years ago at UFC 155, both men have gone on to trade wins & losses in their careers as that bout clearly took something out of each competitor. Between the noted health issues of each fighter and their respective family members in last few years, it is not hard to see why consistency has been hard to come by for either man. That said, I am going to assume that each fighter is near top form as their gameness is unquestionable.

Starting off on the feet, I expect Miller’s Muay Thai arsenal to carry it’s same inherent advantages as before. A southpaw who celebrates his stylistic edges, Miller does a good job at finding the inside angle to deliver his left crosses and short elbows. We saw Jim excel early on in their first meeting as he found his rhythm faster than Joe did, which allowed him to open up a cut and get going. Usually following up his left hands with a cleanup hitting check right hook, Miller’s vicious inside leg kick was the real key to punctuating his punches. Using the inside leg kick as an entry into his combination work, Miller was able to off balance Lauzon from the jump and get the edge in exchanges.

Although he is also known as one of the division’s more aggressive fighters, Joe Lauzon is also one of the most intelligent as I will be looking forward to seeing what adjustments he will make in the rematch. Primarily drawing from a boxing based toolkit, Joe has some dangerous elbows of his own that I am sure he will be looking to use. That said, I suspect we may see more knees and punches to the body of Miller. Not only did Joe have the most success here in regards to striking with Jim, but we have seen Joe steadily develop these tools more since that fight.

Although Miller has been susceptible to body shots in the past, most of his trouble standing stems from his control of the center lane. Whether it is the jabs of Nate Diaz or the check knees from Cowboy Cerrone, Jim’s striking arsenal has shown to struggle when forced to fight at his opponents preferred range. So regardless of Lauzon’s approach, he will likely need to establish his range down to center lane to build on any success he finds. As far as defenses go, Lauzon is traditionally the more hittable man as he has a tendency to plot and revert to a shell-defense.

With these habits opening up Lauzon to body shots of his own, I the suspect striking traffic will once again become a two-way street. With the striking portion of this fight likely going to the man who establishes himself first, it will be interesting to which fighter can exploit the ground stanzas in their favor. With both men renown for their submission grappling abilities, we saw an exciting array of back-and-forth scrambles in their last outing. As has been accustom to their careers, each fighter employs an aggressive style of transitional grappling that can quickly turn south should a finish not materialize.

However, both Jim and Joe have seemingly noted this side effect to their style as they have each made adjustments in the subsequent years. Demonstrating a more measured approach from their top control to overall output, Jim Miller, and Joe Lauzon have each shown veteran savvy in regards to being realistic about their limitations. With each fighter difficult to submit when sober, I suspect the exchanges will be close as it may come down to whoever ends up on top. With Lauzon showing more of a trend for control as Miller shows a propensity to fight from his back, I give a slight edge to Joe to find his way topside.

Considering where these two fan-favorites are at this stage of their career, it is hard to ask for anything else as these fighters have given more than we can imagine. With both Joe and Jim still dealing with injuries that have plagued them from their first fight, all I can hope is that these two come away safely here. With an official pick being all but a formality for me in regards to this fight, I will be siding with Lauzon this time as I feel his trends are a bit more reliable. That said, there is no certainty in this matchup as I feel it is just as close as their first encounter, albeit for different reasons.

Official Pick: Lauzon – Decision

Official Outcome: Miller – Split Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Alvey def. Casey
• Bochniak def. Barzola
• Di Chirico def. McLellan
• Campbell def. Silva
• Laprise def. Gouti
• Hunter def. Janes
• Kennedy def. Ricci

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