Summary:

The newly minted main event for Sioux Falls features a barnburner at bantamweight as Michael McDonald does battle with John Lineker. After two years away from the sport, Michael McDonald made a successful return earlier this year in a stunning win over Masanori Kanehara. Looking to regain his status as a title contender, McDonald will now look to capitalize on the opportunity ahead. Standing in his way is a former flyweight, as John Lineker looks to turn the heads of fans and fellow bantamweights alike.

With this shootout being between two of the heaviest hitters in the division, expect this fight to contest(and likely be decided) standing. Arguably the more technical striker, Michael McDonald will have to rely heavily on his range management being the longer man. Despite being 6 inches taller than his Brazilian foe, McDonald only holds a 3-inch reach advantage which makes his footwork in this fight extra important.

Circling just outside of his opponents range until finding his own, Michael times his initiations to intercept his oncoming opposition. Executing this in a similar fashion to Thomas Almeida, McDonald also shares the accountabilities of the aggressive Brazilian. Although he does not overstay his welcome as much as Almeida, Michael is still vulnerable to counters due to the nature of his aggression. Despite changing his level and getting his head slightly off center, McDonald’s willingness to exchange once committed inside could cost him in this contest.

Similar to when Super Mario acquires the star of invincibility, is John Lineker in the way in which he walks down his opposition with impunity. With a renown power that changes the course of fights with a single shot, it is Lineker’s durability that makes his game so scary. Don’t let his short stature fool you, despite lacking bounce to his step the Brazilian closes distance deceptively well. Cutting off the cage and feinting forward, Lineker will look to force exchanges from his pressure. Wielding devastating hooks from both sides to the head & body, John usually enters off his opponents strikes as they retract(something to watch for in this fight).

However, the Brazilian is not without pocket liabilities of his own. Unabashedly throwing hooks from left to right with little regard for defense, we have seen Lineker eat punches with no signs of getting full. That said, Lineker will be facing another fighter with freakish power as I see the uppercut potentially posing him problems. Not only is Linker short, but he also tends to lean low and forward when committing to combinations. With the right uppercut being McDonalds most accurate & dangerous punch, this could be something to look for in this fight.

Regardless of how standing exchanges fare, I feel that Lineker will have to more favorable plan B. Although McDonald is more dangerous in the submission department, his arsenal is primarily off of his back due a lack of wrestling presence. Despite displaying explosiveness in his hips, Michael still shows susceptible to being taken down(especially when against the fence). Even though McDonald surely has the skills to submit Lineker on paper, he tends to succeed bottom more than he arguably should.

If Michael hangs out on his back in this fight, he may find himself at the end of Lineker’s punches as well as the judges scorecards. That said, it is hard to be certain of either man’s ground intentions given their past reluctance in this field. With McDonald’s striking success usually predicated on his ability to dictate distance, range management will be the key factor for Michael as he will need to stay away from the cage.

Even though McDonald moves well laterally, he has trouble establishing counters from those angles as it is not his strong suit. Coupled with Lineker’s knack for forcing fights to the fence, Michael may handicap himself if he allows the battles to contest in the Brazilian’s kill zone. In fact, anytime McDonald finds himself in between the cage and inner-black Octagon lines, he will need to be on high alert.

Unless Michael can establish his power and the terms of range early, he may find himself behind the higher striking volume of Lineker. Although it would be crazy to count out McDonald’s chances of stopping or submitting the Brazilian, I give a slight edge to the more active and proven man. With only one fight in nearly two years, it is hard to confidently back Michael McDonald. Regardless of who you like here, make no illusions, this is a gun fight.

Official Pick: Lineker – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Lineker – KO (round 1)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX Sports 1 is a fantastic flyweight fight between Louis Smolka and Ben Nguyen. Putting together a 3-fight winning streak since his lone career loss, Smolka has steadily been making a name for himself at 125 lbs. Another quietly ascending contender, Ben Nguyen has slowly strung together an 8-fight streak over the past 6-years. Although Nguyen has established residency across the world, he originally hails from Sioux Falls as Ben is undoubtedly excited to make his return. That said, Smolka’s last three wins have come in enemy territory as he looks to score another upset.

With both fighters possessing technically aggressive and crowd-pleasing styles, expect every phase of this fight to be competitive and exciting. Starting on the feet, however, is where I expect to Nguyen to have a slight advantage as he is the more dangerous man. Despite being known as an aggressive striker, Nguyen prefers to counter as he uses pressure to draw out his opposition’s attacks and capitalize. Using excellent feints and footwork to initiate this, it is Ben’s head movement off his strikes and stance-shifts that make him so effective inside the pocket.

Although I could see Ben stunning Smolka by slipping and coming over the top, I suspect he may show more southpaw looks as he searches for his patent left-cross. Not only is that Nguyen’s best punch, but it is also a strike that has troubled Smolka in the past. Whether it was Hoolohan’s left cross off a stance shift or Vaculik’s left jab from orthodox, Louis’ often upright head position has accommodated many straight shots. Considering Smolka’s lone career loss came to a southpaw, do not be surprised to see Nguyen show more “lefty” looks than usual.

However, Nguyen will have left-handed liabilities of his own in this matchup. Although Ben does a good job of getting his head off of the centerline, his propensity to throw left hands often leads his head off to his right side. Coupled with Nguyen’s aggression in exchanges, this has traditionally cost him left hook counters. Even though Ben has shown to take shots well, he will still need to be mindful as Smolka’s check hook is his most accurate punch. Whether he is kicking at a distance or dealing out elbows & knees inside the clinch, Louis largely dictates traffic off of his left hand.

Operating behind an active jab and cross, Smolka attempts to set up strikes and stay long as that will undoubtedly serve him well against Nguyen. Although Louis likes to throw unorthodox Karate style kicks, they may come in handy in deterring some of Nguyen’s head movement at the very least. That said, I feel Smolka’s best chances to win this fight are in the clinch and on the mat. Nguyen is more than competent working inside or breaking from the clinch, but Smolka has shown to use his lengthy frame as an active blanket of non-disseminating offense.

Whether he is operating out of a Thai clinch, dirty boxing, or driving low for legs & hips, Louis has a knack for forcing action against the fence. If Nguyen fails to avoid this trap or losses discipline, he may get sucked into Smolka’s dog fight and find himself on the floor. However, as is accustom in the Hawaiian’s approach, Louis will present opportunities to his opposition early. Although Smolka has thankfully shown less head & arm throws, Louis still tends to give his back when attempting tosses and takedown variations. The Hawaiian will also give his neck when entering in on hips, something that Cariaso used to compromise Smolka’s approach in their fight.

If Nguyen has solid head control or can work well off a guillotine, then we may see Smolka get stifled. That said, Louis has a unique grappling style where he succeeds small battles so that he can win the bigger ones. In fact, if Nguyen fails to establish himself early in ground stanzas he may fall into the downward spiral that is Louis Smolka’s scramble game. An interesting dichotomy of grappler, Smolka possesses the technical flow chart of a black belt that is fueled by the offensive eagerness of a white belt. Whether he is sweeping, standing, shucking, or sitting out, Smolka is snake-like in the way that he denies his opposition complete control.

Even though I give an edge to the Hawaiian on the mat, Nguyen will be a tough challenge as he has an underrated ground game. Although he shows to be competent from his back, Nguyen is a handful if he is allowed to work from topside. Displaying excellent striking posture from inside the guard and seamless transitions in his advancing, it is the little things that tell me Nguyen possesses more skills than meets the eye. In his last fight, for example, Ben was able to control and finish Ryan Benoit from back mount. However, Nguyen showed solid fight-IQ by dismounting to a single hook rides on multiple occasions to maintain his position.

If Nguyen can implement his game early off of Smolka’s mistakes, we may see his skills take the Hawaiian by surprise. That said, if Ben ends up on the bottom in the exchanges, we could see Smolka take the steering wheel. In a match that is this close on paper, you will find little certainties in my prediction. However, I am a firm believer that scrambles win fights, especially in the lower weight classes. For that reason, I will be siding with Smolka as I recommend caution in playing this one. It is a shame that my two favorite dark horse contenders have to do battle, but this is likely your best bet for the fight of the night.

Official Pick: Smolka – Decision

Official Outcome: Smolka – TKO (round 2)

Full Card Predictions:

• Lineker def. McDonald
• Ferguson def. Vannata
• Samman def. Boetsch
• Oleinik def. Omielanczuk
• Noke def. Nakamura
• Smolka def. Nguyen
• Murphy def. Chookagian
• Alvey def. Spicely
• Casey def. Stanciu
• Holtzman def. Pfister
• Yahya def. Lopez
• Clark def. Nicholson

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