Summary:

The main event in Sacramento is stellar strawweight scrap as “12 Guage” Paige VanZant takes Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson. Fresh off her highlight-reel knockout of Bec Rawlings, Paige VanZant will get her wish to fight in her adopted hometown of Sacramento. As one of the promotion’s more recognizable stars, VanZant will look to deliver big on what is her second main event spot. Drawing a dangerous opponent, Paige will face the former Invicta Atomweight champion, Michelle Waterson.

A pioneer of the lower-weight classes, Waterson will look to cement her arrival to the big show by taking advantage of this showcase spot. Having a handful of matchups fallout in the past year due to injury, we have not seen Waterson since her successful UFC debut against Angela Magana. Although a year plus off is not the best thing for a fighter, Waterson has appeared to keep active at Jackson-Wink MMA despite hitting some speed bumps. Considering that the veteran fighter has made many successful returns from layoff before, I suspect Waterson to be well-tuned a ready for the challenge ahead.

A Karate practitioner since the age of 10, Michelle is no stranger to martial arts as her skillset has expanded well beyond her Black Belt in American Freestyle Karate would suggest. Competing in MMA for almost a decade, Waterson has shown slightly different iterations of herself as she has steadily added to her arsenal. Incorporating more Muay Thai in the second half of her career, Waterson displays an ability to delegate her kicking styles uniquely. Like many Karate strikers, Michelle works well off of her lead leg as she throws the front and round kicks you would expect from a fighter with her background. However, she will seamlessly switch her kicking style as she often sets up hard Thai kicks from her power side.

When feeling in stride, Waterson will throw a spinning hook or crescent kick as she has a solid sense for intercepting her opponent’s trajectory. Although VanZant displayed kicking progressions in her last fight, I doubt that her game plan here will involve trading with Waterson at range. Despite Paige showing a change of pace by fighting on the outside with Bec, I suspect she will go back to her pressuring pursuits given this style matchup. In Michelle’s most recent loss to Herica Tiburcio, we saw Waterson struggle with the forward and top pressure from a larger fighter. Whether she was getting pushed to the fence or punished on the bottom, we saw key themes in that fight that could play out in this matchup.

Although Waterson does not emphasize on counter fighting, I feel we may see her focus on it more considering her opposition. Even if VanZant continues to show steady striking improvements, her inherent aggression traditionally translates to her head staying on center. Despite displaying the chin and toughness to take multiple counters, I doubt Paige will want to take too many strikes in a 5-round affair. If Waterson can capitalize on a charging VanZant early, we may see her dissuade Paige and force her to fight on the outside. However, if she fails to keep her preferred range, then much of the exchanges will take place inside the clinch, as I feel that space will be a key factor in this fight’s trajectory.

Both fighters are aggressive inside of the clinch but in different ways. Although Waterson was initially defensive in this space as an inherent striker, her confidence, as well as attack options, have increased as her wrestling has improved. Now able to hit hip tosses and trips of her own, Waterson can present different threats to accompany her usual body assaults from the Thai clinch. That said, VanZant has a knack for killing this striking-space in close, as she uses her hips to debase her opposition and set up takedowns and tosses of her own. Even though Paige’s preferred head-and-arm tosses have cost her back takes in the past, she may have more success in out-muscling a smaller fighter.

Despite VanZant’s dirty boxing and overall clinch tactics not being the cleanest, I see her having a slight advantage in this space as I feel it will happen on terms that favor her. For example, whether Waterson is ahead or behind, she tends reset or circle along the outside of the cage. Against a fighter like VanZant who does her best work when able to get her opposition to the cage, Michelle could be inadvertently playing into Paige’s hands if she does not show she can effectively circle out and disengage. Should the clinch battles take place along the fence, then I suspect we will see Waterson stifled by the stronger fighter.

Once this fight hits the floor, we should be treated to some fun, back-and-forth scrambles. Although Michelle is no slouch in the transition department, I give a scrambling edge to VanZant over most in the division due to her relentless will to consistently chase better positions. Despite having to be on alert for Waterson’s slick armbar setups, I feel that Paige should be able to navigate deep waters and possibly wear down on her opponent as time wears on. In fact, if any fighter finds themselves in submission trouble, I suspect it may be Michelle.

Although Waterson demonstrates the same grit and grip-fighting that makes her counterpart so hard to submit, the Karate Hottie has a tendency to overstay her welcome positionally(especially when on top), as it is not uncommon to find her fending off submission threats. Ultimately, I see this battle being a back-and-forth scramble for position that may set a record for armbar attempts, and even flying kicks. In a pick-em fight that could fall either way, I will reluctantly side with VanZant as I see her size and pressure helping sway this scrap in her favor.

Official Pick: VanZant – Decision

Official Outcome: Waterson – Submission (round 1)

Summary:

The co-main event in Sacramento is a showdown between UFC Fight Pass products Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall. The first fighter to come off of the Dana White “Looking for a Fight” series, Sage Northcutt stormed the UFC scene as he would compete 3-times within his first 4-months of being with the organization. Although the young gun would receive a wake-up call in the form of Bryan Barberena, Sage would rebound at UFC 200 with a hard-fought win over Enrique Marin. Now tasked with another unique challenge at welterweight, Northcutt will attempt to prove his doubters wrong as he answers Mickey Gall’s challenge.

Also storming his way into the UFC through Fight Pass programming, Mickey Gall has not been bashful in making his presence known. After finally getting his fight with CM Punk, Gall wasted no time in calling out Sage Northcutt in his post-fight speech. Receiving his wish, the 3-0 professional from New Jersey will now have his toughest test to date. When looking on at this fight on paper, it is hard not to instinctually side with the fighter who has more combat sports experience and athletic upside. However, the oddsmakers and the general public seem to have Gall the favorite, and I can see why as I present to you my take on this matchup.

Starting off on the feet, Sage will certainly have the on-paper edge in striking. Although Northcutt’s Karate stylings seldom allow him to sit down on his punches, his athleticism makes up for a large part of it as he produces pop on his explosive attacks. Possessing incredible speed, Sage will put together punches at the drop of a dime as his opposition typically struggles to get a beat on him. When feeling in stride, Sage will mix in diverse kicking attacks as he works particularly well off of his lead leg. Considering Sage’s on paper and athletic edges, his best chances of closing the show will likely reside in his ability to blitz effectively. That said, we have seen Northcutt’s aggressive approach cost him more and more at the higher levels.

With aggressive entries often equating to counter strike opportunities, they can also open you up to takedowns in MMA. Although we have not seen the full extent of Gall’s countering capabilities, we do know that he has a solid double-leg shot, both reactively and offensively. With Mickey having the on-paper edge on the floor, it will be interesting to see if Sage tries to temper his attack and measure his approach from the outside. Although range fighting seems like the smart option for Sage, it is his lack of counter presence that both concerns and surprises me in the striking realm.

Despite competing in Karate from childhood, Sage does not show the knack for countering that most Karate based fighters inherently have from years of range-finding. This could be troublesome for a fighter who notably struggles with pressure, especially if Gall is the one who comes forward on him. Although we do not have a large sample-size from Gall, he has shown us he is capable of coming forward with force and intelligence. In his brief bout with Mike Jackson, Gall demonstrated that he has a good feel for distance and pressure as he was able to stalk and feint appropriately.

Showing solid offensive fundamentals, Gall puts together punches well as his flow reflects his comfortability. Although I am sure he will continue to show fight-to-fight improvements, Mickey also will need to demonstrate his defensive awareness against the dangerous, darting attacks of Sage Northcutt. Even though the ceiling is far from certain, Gall’s efforts through the amateur ranks as well as his time spent with the Miller brothers have seemingly prepared him well. Where I start to side with Mickey’s chances of winning, is when I look at the prospects of ground fighting. It is not just that Gall has the on-paper edge there, but it is Northcutt’s propensity to take fight’s there that sells me.

From his amateur fights to his recent professional performances, Sage seemingly cannot help himself when it comes to changes gears and grappling mid-attack. Even when he is against the fence or fresh off a successful takedown stuffing, we have seen Sage get stuck on playing defense as he would re-wrestle when he probably should be disengaging. These tendencies nearly cost Sage in his fight with Cody Pfister, and subsequently cost him in his lone career loss to Bryan Barberena. After dabbling at other gyms in the past year, I was hoping to see improvements in Sage’s decision making with his last matchup.

Even though Sage would show us his gritty determination in escaping some close submission attempts, he will still repeatedly put himself in those trouble spots despite his corner’s instructions. If Northcutt has not shored up his decisions in transition, then he may be in for a rough ride with Gall. Not only does Mickey have the takedown ability to be the one who initiates ground stanzas, but he also has the skills to keep and close the show there. Displaying solid positional fundamentals, Gall will smoothly strike to assist his transitions. An avid back-taker, Mickey rarely says no to putting his hooks in, as he’ll often try to trap an arm in transit.

Although I am siding with Gall, I cannot say that I am doing so with certainty. With Sage’s looming athletic upside, this could be the fight where the young Texan starts to take his game to the next level. But, considering his lack of fundamentals from hand-fighting to hip-awareness, it hard to side with the suspect defensive-priorities shown by Sage, as I see his propensity to play with fire getting him burned here.

Official Pick: Gall – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Gall – Submission (round 2)

Summary:

In a potential barnburner in the bantamweight division, Urijah Faber makes his last stand against Brad Pickett. Despite having a rough go of things recently in his career, Urijah Faber is a pioneer of the lighter weight classes as his place amongst MMA history is unquestionable. Faber’s featherweight reign in the WEC was legendary as his battles with Jens Pulver provided promotional gold that put the California Kid on the map. Now, almost a decade later, it seems only right to put his career to bed in the same place that it came to life.

Looking to spoil the Sacramento homecoming is another crafty veteran in Brad Pickett. Seemingly experiencing a similar career arc to his counterpart, Pickett has self-admittedly struggled in finding the proper door to make his exit. Although the oddsmakers are not too kind in his chances, I believe there is still some fight left in the Englishman. Despite being a willing participant in wars and sporting a crooked nose to show for it, Brad Pickett demonstrates solid fundamental footwork and head movement. Whether Brad is changing his angles of attack or slipping and returning, he always moves with a purpose when coming forward.

Working well off of a crouch, Pickett will feint takedowns as he comes up with his patent uppercut-hook combinations. This stalking style could be effective against Faber, who’s darting attacks fueled by his speed, make him difficult to time. If Faber is not careful, he may find himself landing the initial shots, only to be followed-up on as he leaves the pocket(in a similar fashion to his fight with Frankie Edgar). Although Pickett’s left hook is the punch he prefers to punctuate with, I feel that the uppercut may be the punch to look out for in this fight.

A possible carry-over from his level-changing takedown feints, Faber’s head will often come dangerously low and forward on his entries. Not only can you see this cost him uppercuts in his battles with Dominick Cruz, but Urijah was also caught similarly in recent bouts with Frankie Saenz & Cisco Rivera. If Faber is careful on reading Brad’s dips, he could run into a momentum-shifting shot. That said, I feel that Urijah will have his own potent spots standing in this fight. Despite Faber’s offense often being criticized for its predictability, his patent right hand will be live in this matchup.

Although Pickett keeps a good sense of things inside the pocket, his propensity to trade often leaves him open for counters by nature. Considering that Urijah’s counter-cross is his most effective punch, I suspect that will be the strike to watch out for from him. Despite having a rocky relationship with Duane Ludwig, Faber has shown to strike with more purpose and process since his time spent with Duane. Utilizing feints more intelligently, Urijah will now incorporate more jabs and hooks to set up his patent right-hand though touch-pull-return setups. That said, Faber could be playing with fire anytime he overstays his welcome inside the pocket.

Where this fight looks more favorable for Faber, is when looking at potential ground stanzas. From his positional awareness in scrambles to his deadly chokes in transit, you do not have to look far to see why Urijah has an on-paper grappling advantage. And although Pickett is one of the best MMA wrestlers to come out of England, the majority of his improvements are offensive ones as his aggression often allows him to be taken down. Given that basic equation, the American’s prospects begin to look fruitful as Urijah will likely have multiple opportunities to find a finish. That said, Brad is quietly technical in the ways he chooses to stand.

Whether he is bellying-down with a hard over-hook or carefully using the cage to assist an under-hook getup, you will seldom see Pickett give his neck or expose his back soberly. If the Brad can successfully thwart takedowns or get back to his feet, he can make this fight significantly closer due to the nature of his volume and output. However, when you consider that the Englishman has been knocked down and or taken down in 4 of his last 5-fights, it is hard not to favor Faber to find the submission in transition. Although I agree that Urijah should be the betting favorite in this fight, I feel that the oddsmakers are a bit off as I see this one being closer than the line suggests.

Official Pick: Faber – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Faber – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX is a welterweight war as Alan “Brahma” Jouban takes on “Platinum” Mike Perry. A name that has always excited hardcore fans, Alan Jouban returns from a fight-of-the-night performance against Belal Muhammad this past summer. Advocating for Top-15 recognition, Jouban will likely earn himself a spot should he get past the task ahead. Showing to be an instant character upon arrival, Mike Perry has made his presence known in one way or another. That said, the Team Sparta product has shown us in just two fights that there is more than meets the eye.

In what is my most anticipated matchup on this card, I expect this fight to resemble MMA’s equivalent to a high-speed chase. Both men will be trying to edge out the other at a breakneck pace, but only one will reach the border without wrecking. Considering the striking sensibilities of both fighters, I suspect the majority of the match to contest standing. Although each man is arguably at their best coming forward, I suspect Jouban will be the one who plays Matador as he is the craftier counter fighter. As seen in his previous bouts, Alan will often revert to countering on the outside when his offensive stanzas fail to produce stops or swings in the momentum.

Given the durability and drive of Jouban’s stubborn counterpart, I suspect that this fight will contest in similar spaces to each man’s last match. Although Alan struggled in fending off Belal Muhammad in his previous bout, Jouban was also without his left hand for most of that match as it will certainly serve him well here. Despite Perry winning in his last time out against Danny Roberts, we saw the Platinum one hit on multiple occasions with counter left hands throughout the contest. Considering that the counter left hand is Jouban’s best punch, this could be a shot worth watching for, especially if Alan throws his counters straight like a cross.

Although Perry has demonstrated glimpses of excellent slips and rips, he lacks overall head movement as he is primarily offensively-minded. Even though Mike displays good reaction times in his blocking and shelling, his head and body typically stay on the centerline as straight strikes are usually Perry’s common-culprit. Jouban also wields lethal liver and head kicks that could see some light in this fight, however, Perry’s defenses showed to hold up well against Danny Roberts(who had some clever setups).

Keeping a low standing guard, Perry does a good job on inherently blocking his body while goading his opponent into attempting a head shot. Backed by a granite chin, Perry keeps right hand–left hook counters at the ready as he retaliates at the drop of a dime. Although Alan should still have the slight speed advantage in this matchup, I feel Perry’s style is a potent foil for a fighter who traditionally gets caught being over-aggressive in exchanges. Where things start to get more worrisome for the fan-favorite fighter, is when looking at Alan’s prospects of fighting smart and looking for the counter.

As previously stated, Alan will often revert to countering along the outside when faced with a durable and determined stalker(as seen in his Alves & Muhammad matches). The problem with operating in this space is that Jouban will be playing inside of Perry’s preferred Killzone. Anytime Mike can get his opponent in between the fence and inner-black Octagon lines, expect violence. Whenever Alan has struggled in striking exchanges, it was usually inside of this space as we saw him have trouble with fighters like Tumenov, Alves, and Muhammad here.

When under fire, Alan will often call upon his clinch game where he has shown to be effective from whether he is defending shots or unloading elbows. If Alan is unable to establish his clinch, he well often change his level like he is going to shoot, but instead will push his opponent away for space. Against an opponent like Perry who wields devastating knees, Jouban will have to be careful anytime leans forward or changes his level. Although Alan’s posture awareness is usually on point as he comes from a Muay Thai base, Perry has a knack for landing his knees whenever he is in range.

In fact, when looking at many of Mike’s finishes dating back to Preston Parsons, Perry’s knees will often initiate the end as they seem to have an almost irreparable effect. With that in mind, it will be interesting see if Jouban elects to shoot any takedowns, as his wrestling has progressed under the tutelage of Kenny Johnson. Although Alan may have an on-paper advantage on the floor, I am not sure it will translate in his fight given Perry’s shown improvements. Despite Alan making improvements to his wrestling game, he does not typically make an initiative for top position as he is traditionally known for his bottom game.

On the flip side, Perry’s athleticism has translated well to the wrestling department as he is deceptively agile. Demonstrating a solid base and balance, Perry defends takedowns like it is almost second nature to him. Carrying competent takedown abilities of his own, Mike shows to be an effective ground striker as he seems to make it his number one priority. Earlier in Perry’s career, he showed a surprising amount of intelligence when it came to knowing when to bail on a position. Now, showing more confidence and competence, Perry will re-wrestle for position or even put his hooks in when appropriate. Should Perry find himself topside, Alan could be in trouble if he cannot scramble to safety.

Even though Jouban is the more technical fighter from top to bottom, Perry shows the ability to make improvements each time out which make his performances hard to forecast as a growing fighter. If Alan cannot stun or stop Perry off of his counter crosses or liver kicks, then I suspect his propensity to play inside of the Platinum one’s Killzone will cost Jouban here. As a fan of Alan, I hope I am wrong and that the veteran takes this opportunity to teach the young fighter a lesson. However, considering that Alan carries similar defensive liabilities, I have to side with the man who is more durable and has arguably the more athletic-upside. If you intend on siding with either man for a play, I suggest sprinkling lightly as this is the most potent gunfight on the card.

Official Pick: Perry – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Jouban – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Da Silva def. Craig
• Hirota def. Miller
• Covington def. Barberena
• Moontasri def. Morono
• Emmett def. Holtzman
• Aldana def. Smith
• Wineland def. Mizugaki
• Serrano def. Sandoval
• Velickovic def. Aliev

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