Summary:

UFC Rotterdam culminates in a heavyweight showdown as Alistair Overeem meets Andrei Arlovski in the main event. Coming off an impressive knockout over Junior Dos Santos last December, Overeem will look to further his 3-fight winning streak and make a claim for the title by beating another former Champion. Coming off a disappointing loss to Stipe Miocic earlier this year, Andrei Arlovski was where Alistair is now, as he was seemingly one win away from a title shot of his own. Still in the mix, Arlovski will look to complete his comeback story by upsetting Overeem in front of his home crowd.

To add to the high-level of intangibles that already come in heavyweight fights, these two men have been training in the same facility as one another for the past few years now. Although they are not reportedly friends by any stretch and have spent surprisingly little time training with each other, the nature of this situation may likely produce the unexpected. Often when fighting someone from the same gym, the common knowledge of coaches or the fighters themselves can add a subconscious insecurity to the equation. In other words, when two fighters who are familiar with one another meet, the emotions often take over and usually manifest themselves into boring fights or barn burners.

We saw one part of this scenario play out in Arlovski’s fight with former stablemate Travis Browne. In fact, 3 of 5 of Andrei’s last bouts have come against former Jackson-Wink affiliated fighters(Browne, Mir, & Schaub). Although Overeem is the justified on-paper favorite, facts like that lead me to believe the intangible advantages are with Arlovski. And despite the advancing age of 37, the former UFC Champ still carries the skills needed to win this fight: speed and power.

Keeping a natural spring in his step, Andrei still displays the agile foot & hand speeds that have kept his game going through all these years. Utilizing feints & throwing just enough variety to set up big shots, Arlovski is deceptively accurate with his patent right-hand. That said, Andrei arguably favors his right-hand too often as he has become very predictable in his approach. More troubling than his approach is his retreats, as Arlovski still shows a bad habit of backing up with his head high. Andrei will have to mind this against an accurate striker like Alistair, especially off the breaks as Arlovski tends to retract his hands low.

Andrei’s best chances on the feet will be by applying pressure to Overeem. Alistair has a dangerous & dynamic arsenal at his disposal, but the Reem requires a lot of space to operate effectively. Fortunately for Overeem, Andrei shows a very measured aggression behind his feints as he often repeats the same patterns. Not to mention that this is a 5-round affair and with Arlovski showing a suspect gas tank in recent years, I question how hard he will be able to push Alistair in this fight.

Never the less, there will still be ample opportunity that will likely come Andrei’s way if he can capitalize. Although Alistair’s shifting attacks could especially be effective given Andrei’s manner of retreat, Shifts are by nature an aggressive tactic that leaves the door open for counters. And considering how Overeem will often close distances with low hands, he could get more than he bargains for if he’s not careful with his favored knee entries.

Although Andrei has abandoned offensive grappling long ago, his Sambo roots still holds strong in his clinch game as he stifles not only takedowns but the overall action as well. Regardless of this I still feel that Overeem should have a distinct advantage inside the clinch. Even though Alistair is known for his devastating knees, he has shown effective hip-rotations from the body-lock in recent bouts. In his fight with Struve, we saw Alistair use this to rotate the Skyscraper to the floor where he finished the fight. Whereas in his fight with Roy Nelson, he was able to parlay failed rotations into opportunities by guiding his oppositions weight/direction right into strikes off the break(Similarly to Holm vs Rousey).

Should Alistair get Arlovski down, expect a subtle but important battle in regards to grip fighting. A master staller, Arlovski has no shame in his intentions for over-hooks & collar-ties to avoid damage. In fact, he has consistently earned stand-ups with this method as officials are usually quicker to stand up heavier fighters. That said, Overeem does an excellent job at hand-fighting which in turn makes him so effective in striking from the top. It is hard to see this one going the full 5-rounds, but I said the same thing with Dos Santos & Rothwell. Although I would love to see Andrei score the upset, it is hard to go against the hometown hero in this one.

Official Pick: Overeem – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Overeem – TKO (round 2)

Summary:

The co-main event in Rotterdam features a crossroads match at heavyweight, as Antonio “Big Foot” Silva meets Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. With only three victories between them since 2012, this fight should speak loudly as to where each man is in their career. In what is arguably the most intangible filled fight on the card, I will attempt to highlight what we may be looking at in this contest.

For Stefan Struve, this will be a chance to not only return home but return to the form that earned him the title of prospect. Having a tougher time than most young fighters do when it comes to adjusting to his growing frame, Stefan’s troubles came to be due to a heart-related issue. Thankfully Struve was properly medicated and cleared to return to action, however, we still haven’t quite seen the same fighter as before.

Stefan said on the Anik & Florian Podcast that everything fell apart after his fight with Hunt, as he feared to push his heart back to the same breakneck pace as before. In looking back at his last four fights, you can see that Stefan was struggling to pull the trigger. Genuinely excited and confident for his return home, Stefan promises that he is fully recovered and ready for this fight.

Facing noted health issues of his own, “Big Foot” Silva has struggled in recent years after a TRT ban and multiple failed tests. Demonstrating inconsistent performances and even in-fight durabilities, Antonio’s only official win in over three years was over another fighter who was on his way out. Always a hard worker, Big Foot has doubled his efforts for resurgence as he has been training religiously at American Top Team.

With only 13 takedown attempts between both men’s UFC careers, I am not sure I expect a ground-heavy approach from either fighter. Although, I do feel that Antonio may have more motive to do so, especially given his toolkit and the way they stack up on paper. That said, Silva primarily attempts his takedowns against the fence, an area where Stefan has shown market improvement. Despite an aging Minotauro Nogueira not being the best measuring stick as far wrestling goes, Struve did show some real technical improvements in not just defending takedowns, but killing clinch engagements and circling out.

Although Struve’s fight with Rosholt was seemingly stranger, we still saw Stefan show these improvements as he was able to defend & adjust as the fight went on. Despite that being one of the more painful fights of recent memory, I do not feel it is a condemnation of Struve’s potential career. That said, if Stefan finds himself on the bottom of Big Foot, he cannot afford to be as lackadaisical as he was against Rosholt.

Known more for his knockout power, it is Silva’s ground striking that is truly devastating, as the Black Belt’s positional based game compliments it well. Even though it does not take much to get Antonio going from topside, he may not find the success he is accustom to as he faces the rare opponent who is larger than him. Moving deceptively well for big man, Struve does so by displaying an excellent use of leg dexterity to compliment his length. Also demonstrating solid agility in his hips, Struve has shown to parlay failed submissions and guard-retentions into get-up opportunities in recent fights.

Even though both men may have their chances on the floor, I feel this fight may ultimately be decided standing. There, both men show similarities in style & susceptibilities, from their attack arsenals to overhand availabilities(caused by their height/upright standing guards). Although Silva has shown more consistency in stringing together combinations, he traditionally is only effective when getting his opponents back to the fence. That’s where I see the overall exchanges favoring Struve, who has a solid Teep kick and ability to circle that may dictate the terms of offense.

Heavyweight MMA is insane to try and predict on its own, much less in a fight like this, as I strongly caution any plays here. With both men’s health issues & inconsistencies, I have to believe that the 28-year old fighter has more upside than the 36-year old who has been hurt or dropped in 6 of 7 of his last outings.

Official Pick: Struve – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Struve – TKO (round 1)

Summary:
In a battle of Europe’s top welterweight prospects, Gunnar Nelson and Albert Tumenov will each be looking to make a statement in Rotterdam. Steadily stringing together wins and creating rumblings amongst hardcore fans, Tumenov will now get his biggest name opponent on his second main card stint. Coming off a tough loss to Damian Maia last December, Gunnar Nelson will look to get back on track with a win over the tough Russian.

Although appearing to be a striker vs grappler matchup at first glance, I feel this fight comes down to distance management. What makes that hypothesis so interesting is that each fighter’s game is dependent on their conduction of distance, as each man will apply their mastery of range through different methods.

Like many Karate or traditional martial arts based strikers, Gunnar Nelson demonstrates a preternatural understanding of space as he uses his wide stance to shuffle in & out of range at will. Accentuating his stance-switching style is Gunnar’s ability to fire lightning fast crosses down the pipe from both sides. Although Nelson’s punches & placements are effective, he struggles when it comes to overall output and follow-up. Despite showing solid head & overall movement, Gunnar’s low-handed approach has cost him at the higher levels. In his fight with Rick Story, we saw Nelson repeatedly hit by left hands from both stances as he failed to adjust. Gunnar will have to mind his low-handed pocket navigations with an accurate counter striker like Tumenov.

Not your typical counter striker, Tumenov will not lay back in wait nor frantically work the outside to achieve his shots. Instead, Albert takes a more technically aggressive approach, as the Russian will antagonize his opposition by stalking forward with firm feints. And like lighting a match in a room drenched with gasoline, all Albert needs is one bite to spark-off a maelstrom of technical combinations. Although not as flamboyant in his movement as Nelson, Tumenov does a textbook job of managing range through resets off his feints and an excellent outside-foot-awareness. Albert also does a superb job of subtly stepping-off angle to deliver right hands or in his last bout against Larkin, digging left hooks to the body. However, with Nelson’s aforementioned low-handed approach, Tumenov’s signature left hooks should be key here, as he is accurate offensively and off the counter.

Although Albert should have the on-paper advantage standing, the Russian has a glaring hole in his kicking defenses that may be Gunnar’s best chances on the feet. With most of us remembering Tumenov’s lack of leg checks in his last fight, he also has a propensity to eat body kicks. Often baiting kicks to catch and trip counter, I doubt Tumenov will look to take down the Renzo Gracie Black Belt. It will be interesting to see Nelson’s approach on the feet, but ultimately his best chances are on the floor. With the clear on-paper edge going to Nelson on the mat, the lack of sample size for Tumenov’s ground game makes a counter argument difficult. With that said, here are a few reasons why Gunnar’s ground advantage may be null-in-void for this fight.

Tumenov has been taken down very few times in his UFC tenor, as the few officially scored came off Albert’s aggression allowing him out of position. Since then we have seen Tumenov mature in not only his manner but his aforementioned distancing tactics. With that said, Gunnar’s best chances to ground the Russian would ideally be with a reactive double-leg. However, Nelson does not traditionally attempt those, as all his takedowns in recent years has come off clinch trips & scrambles near the fence. Demonstrating a solid takedown defense in this area at a rate of 83%, I feel Tumenov will make it hard for Nelson to achieve his traditional terms of takedowns. Tumenov treats the cage like an electric fence as his active footwork and sense of urgency makes him hard to get a hold of here.

If Nelson does manage to get Albert down, he has more than enough technical acumen to get the job done against most in the division when on top. Applying a pressure-to-pass type top game, Gunnar will seamlessly flow his way to the mount. If Gunnar gets that far it could be a short night for Albert, however, Nelson will have to mind his floating and respect his opposition in transition. Displaying deceptive core-strength & ground competency, Tumenov has a knack for timing his opponents advances. If Nelson is not careful, Albert will use these opportunities to sweep or scramble back to his feet as he has done before. Although Gunnar grabbing a back in transition could come to fruition, I ultimately feel that his dependency for takedowns and tendency to play on the outside will cost him in this gunfight.

Official Pick: Tumenov – Decision

Official Outcome: Nelson – Submission (round 2)

Summary:

In a fun clash of Muay Thai strikers, bantamweights Germaine De Randamie and Anna Elmose are set to collide. A 10-time Muay Thai World Champion, Germaine De Randamie is steadily rounding out her MMA game as this will be her fourth appearance in the UFC. Anna Elmose, on the other hand, will be making her organizational debut with only three professional fights. However, like her opponent, Anna also carries a storied striking history as she will look to upset the hometown fighter.

Despite not having an officially listed reach, I suspect the 5-foot 3-inch Elmose will be at a significant length disadvantage to the long frame of De Randamie. That said, Anna is used to this discrepancy as her aggressive nature will often allow her to compensate in the distance closing department. Even though Elmose has demonstrated an ability to move her head competently, her aggression often gets her hit on entries.

If Elmose does not show improvements in her defensive priorities, Germaine’s hard & accurate punches could very well make her pay. De Randamie also has excellent footwork as she works in, and circles out of range effectively. Mixing-in consistent leg kicks, Germaine also times an accurate uppercut that could find a home against her shorter opposition.

Despite the solid striking arsenal and athletic movement, De Randamie has shown she is not impervious to being pushed against the fence. Here, is where I feel Anna will have her best chances in this contest. Displaying deceptive strength inside, Elmose is active in the clinch as she will consistently strike and relentlessly work. Particularly powerful when inside the pocket, Anna is most dangerous when punching off breaks.

Elmose also displays concerted efforts in her takedown game, and could pose problems on top as she shows solid positional awareness. That said, De Randamie demonstrates a much stronger understanding of the clinch and application of under-hooks. Utilizing a gable-grip variation, Germaine displays a unique hybrid of an over-under control and Thai-style clinch. The under-hook allows De Randamie to fight for a better position while the grip leverage assists her in delivering knees.

Although the lack of sample size makes skill progressions hard to forecast on the ground, I feel the clinch should be the key factor in this fight. Even though Anna has the key intangibles for an upset, I feel Germaine’s length, strength, and experience will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Official Pick: de Randamie – Decision

Official Outcome: de Randamie – TKO (round 1)

Summary:

In an interesting clash of styles, light-heavyweights Nikita Krylov and Francimar Barroso are set to do battle on the main card. One of the fewer heavier weight fighters to come out of Nova Uniao, Francimar Barroso has been steadily searching for a standout performance. Riding a two-fight winning streak, the Brazilian is now tasked with turning away a young lion in Nikita Krylov.

From his aggressively dynamic attack arsenal to his soft-spoken nature, actions truly do speak louder than words when it comes to Nikita Krylov. Although the young Ukranian has shown improvements since entering the UFC, his knack for fast finishing fights has left us wanting to see more. Now faced with an opponent who has the opposite propensities, it will be interesting to see how Krylov deals with Barroso’s ability to slow down the game.

Primarily circling the outside and switching stances, Barroso will look to time his opposition on his or their way inside. Although he favors body kicks from southpaw, the Brazilian packs hard leg kicks from both stances similarly to his Nova Uniao stablemates. The glaring hole in Barroso’s game is his lack of overall volume and urgency. Although his improved takedowns have allowed him to temper blitzing opponents, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is surprisingly inactive & ineffective from dominant positions.

Opposite from Francimar’s measured approach is the all-offensive minded Nikita Krylov. A well noted aggressive striker, the Ukrainian’s Karate background comes through in his dynamic & dangerous kicking game. His utilization of front kicks and consistent follow-up punches will be key for his offense considering Barroso’s linear approach. Despite Krylov’s lack of defensive priorities, I feel his takedown defense will be his main vulnerability standing in this fight. Although Francimar is not particularly efficient or diverse in his takedown game, he should have the competency to put down Nikita, as I am sure he will attempt to take him to task.

That said, we have seen activity & offense unwind the on-paper advantages of superior positional players when forced to work. Ultimately, that is how I see these two styles stacking up against one another. Nikita should make more than enough mistakes for Barroso to capitalize on this fight, but the Brazilian’s lack of activity & killer instinct may subsequently render him to reacting. There, Nikita’s questionable but aggressive choices will force Fracimar further away from his fight and closer to the fire.

Official Pick: Krylov – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Krylov – Submission (round 2)

Summary:

Due to my personal & professional affiliations with Xtreme Couture MMA, I have chosen not to break this match down.

Official Pick: No pick.

Official Outcome: Kowalkiewicz – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions

• Wade def. Khabilov
• Cedenblad def. McLellan
• Tuck def. Emmett
• Madadi def. Cabral
• Horiguchi def. Seery
• Edwards def. Waters
• Gates def. Sasaki

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