Summary:

The main event for UFC Phoenix is a firefight in the featherweight division as Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez welcomes back the legend, BJ “The Prodigy” Penn. Winner of the first season of TUF Latin America, the ascension of Mexico’s top prospect has been a quick one as Yair has looked good against deceptively tough competition. Now finding himself in the deep end of the pool after a successful 5-round run, Rodriguez will attempt to add one of the biggest names in the sport to his resume as he faces his toughest test to date.

A man that needs no introduction, BJ Penn will go down as one of the most courageous and talented characters to ever step inside of a cage. One of the first multi-divisional champions and multiple weight-class competitors in the UFC, Penn broke the boundaries that most men abided by, and he did it for love–not money. All that aside, it has not been smooth sailing for the Prodigy in the latter chapters of his career as he attempts one last ride into record books by once again accomplishing the unthinkable.

With a strong, negative narrative already existing from the oddsmakers to the pundits, not many are giving a chance to the Hawaiian Hall of Famer. Although it is hard for me to criticize this attitude due to my official pick, I do feel that this fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest as I will use this breakdown as an opportunity to highlight the potential plot holes to this interesting story.

Starting off on the feet is a battle between a fundamentally sound technician and a dynamic, storm riding striker. A poster boy for potential, it can be hard to see the forest through the trees in regards to deciphering the values of flashiness versus effectiveness when talking about Yair. Unabashedly translating his Tae Kwon Do base into the highest level of martial arts, Rodriguez displays the devastating level of attacks that may very well blemish BJ’s record of never being knocked down. That said, there is a lot to look out for in this matchup as Yair will be facing an experienced fighter who can exploit the developing areas outside of his kicking game.

As a Tae Kwon Do black belt myself, I can truly appreciate Yair’s technique applications, but I also immediately noticed his lack of hand presence and habitual one-sided ways. Despite the constant stance switches and dazzling displays, Rodriguez seldom throws any strikes off of his left side. Aside from the occasional straight left or hook, Yair barely clears 10-attempts off his left side per round(not including ground strikes). This single-sided approach makes Rodriguez’s stance switching crucial, as it opens up options and gives the illusion of a dual-sided repertoire.

Criticisms of Rodriguez’s presence at boxing range aside, his age, as well as other intangibles, suggests that he may make larger leaps than usual in regards to fight-to-fight improvements. In fact, we saw an upgrade to his left-hand in his last fight with Alex Caceres. Although he still did not throw it often, Rodriguez was able to hit Alex with hard left crosses from southpaw on multiple occasions throughout the contest. That said, Yair’s right-sided sensibilities may serve him well in this particular matchup.

Even though BJ Penn was long-regarded as having some of the best boxing in MMA, his did a lot of things defensively that would end up costing him later on in his career. Keeping a slightly low lead hand, BJ would subtly bait his opposition to exchanges with him as he relied heavily on his head movement to fuel his counter game. Despite Penn being able to out-strike many in this fashion, we have seen him become much more hittable as the opposition has gotten younger and the strikes have come faster.

Nevertheless, BJ is back with one of the best boxing coaches in the game, Jason Parillo, who was also present during the strongest run of Penn’s career. Even though you cannot expect the duo to defeat father time, Parillo looks to have Penn’s hands a lot sharper this time around. Despite Jason being in BJ’s corner for his last fight, he was not a part of Penn’s preparation as we saw an experimental style crash and burn. That said, should Parillo and Penn sync back up to their old ways, we could see the Prodigy exploit some of Yair’s defensive liabilities.

Like many traditional based martial artists who leap in-and-out, Rodriguez tends to keep his head upright with his hands low. Although Yair demonstrated much-improved head movement in his last fight, he tends to get caught coming in as left hands have been the common culprit when facing opposition from either stance. Considering that Penn is renown for his jab, this could be something worth watching for as BJ’s left hand is the quiet killer of his arsenal.

Even in a devastating defeat to Nick Diaz, Penn was able to disrupt and retaliate against the offensive rhythms from Stockton’s finest with his left jab and hook, as we would see the evidence of this written on Nick’s right eye. That said, BJ may have trouble finding his distance against the non-stop(and sometimes sporadic) movement of Rodriguez. For that reason, I suspect we may see Penn employ an approach that is similar in nature to his fight’s with Lyoto Machida and Kenny Florian.

Against Machida, we saw Penn demonstrate his ability to shut down distance and force a dog fight. Although BJ would lose a competitive decision, he still showed the importance of this principle as Penn arguably came the closest to beating Machida until Shogun Rua came around. At UFC 101, we would witness Penn utilize a heavy dose of feints to draw out the kicks of Kenny Florian as we would see the Prodigy punish him for every bite he took. Although I would like to believe that BJ is still capable of doing that, I suspect he may close the distance in a fashion that is similar to his fight with Fitch.

In a fight with one of welterweight’s finest, BJ would remind us of his veteran craft and ability to kill space and wrestle. Considering that Penn’s wrestling is an underrated aspect of his game, I have a suspicion he may try to test the grappling of Rodriguez. When looking at Yair’s ground game on paper, it is on the floor where I see him potentially getting caught speeding. Although his leg dexterity does him a lot of favors as far as translating his dynamics, the developing fighter still shows signs of a possible lack of awareness in some positions.

Even though Rodriguez showed less of a propensity to get into leg entanglements(needlessly) his last time out, he may get more than he bargains for if he fails to bail during the appropriate openings and overstays his welcome. Facing one of the few fighters that will have better leg dexterity than his own, Yair could quickly find himself in quicksand should he fall prey to leg weaves and chair sits that fuels one of the best passing games in the sport. From the notable arm traps in transit that Penn utilized to earn his lightweight title to the improvisational transitions he used to mount Renzo Gracie, I still feel that the Prodigy can take Rodriguez to school, even at this advanced stage of his career.

However, that statement comes with the caveat of Penn being able to get on top as I feel his chances from the bottom will likely venture south the more he is forced to fight from there. As we have seen in MMA, controlling or finishing a fight from full guard is a tough sell no matter who you are. And although BJ has everything from flexibility to technical ability, he typically sticks to the same guard set-ups as he favors butterfly in-steps from his left side and a foot on the hip from his right. Considering Yair that is working with a high-level talent like Luiz Claudio, I imagine he his coming in prepared as he has shown measurable improvements from topside.

In his fight with Andre Fili, we saw Yair apply excellent placement of his shin to pin down the lower extremity of Fili’s inner-thigh, which in turn allowed him to keep Andre grounded. Rodriguez would continue to show similar upgrades to his top game in this next fight, as he would use his positional improvements to outwork Alex Caceres in regards to overall output. However, if Yair gets greedy in searching for a finish or falls into a scramble, his free-flowing approach may come at a high cost against a grappler the caliber of Penn. Although Yair is a competitor who appears to thrive inside the chaos, we have seen brighter prospects have to pay their taxes at some point in this sport.

Regardless of the fact that I am giving Penn more of a chance than most, I feel that the oddsmakers are correct in the sense of who the favored fighter should be. That said, I still do not agree with the lines as I suggest strong caution in playing the favorite here. As an admitted BJ Penn fan, this is the one time where I would love for my prediction to be wrong. But as an Analyst, I have a hard time siding with the Prodigy should he not get going early. In a sport the sacrifices it’s old, storybook endings are hard to come by as I see this one going to the rider of storms that is Yair Rodriguez.

Official Pick: Rodriguez – Decision

Official Outcome: Rodriguez – TKO (round 2)

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC Phoenix is a promising scrap between two submission specialist as Joe Lauzon takes on Marcin Held. A longtime fan favorite and staple of the organization, Joe Lauzon is still bringing the heat every time he steps into the Octagon. Coming off of a close decision loss to Jim Miller back in August of last year, Lauzon will look to get back on the winning track here. Seeking to spoil the party is Marcin Held, a Polish standout who has cut his teeth largely in the Bellator organization. Fresh off of a tough debut against Diego Sanchez, Held will look to get back on the winning track.

Starting off on the feet, we essentially have a battle of similar boxing-centric styles. Although I give a striking edge to Lauzon on paper, I do not feel it will be by a large margin as his Polish counterpart has displayed the fight-to-fight improvements that young fighters tend to make. Despite Held’s grappling intentions being no secret, the Pole has punched his way into space much more convincingly in recent bouts. Marcin has also demonstrated better hand-positioning as he retracts and throws from a more proper standing guard. I believe that Held’s best strike is his left hook, as I suspect this will be something to watch for from him.

Although Marcin primarily moves forward when throwing his hooks, he adapts them into checks nicely when throwing them defensively. That said, the left hook is also Lauzon’s money punch. Even in looking back almost a decade ago, you could see that Joe had a good handle on his left hand in his victories over Jens Pulver and Kyle Bradley. With the old boxing adage of “don’t hook with a hooker” holding true in MMA, I feel that Held will be the man more at risk in these scenarios. The reason being is that Marcin has a tendency to lean and stay loaded to his right side. Although a fighter leaning to their power side is not necessarily abnormal, I doubt it will help Held as this habit will only further put him into Lauzon’s power shots.

Despite hooking being risky, I feel that Held’s uppercuts could potentially pay some dividends in this fight. Even though Lauzon is excellent about keeping his hands high and strike retractions on point, he has a tendency to revert to a shell guard which traditionally opens up body shots and uppercuts. Although Joe arguably won his last fight on many scorecards, we saw Jim Miller have success in following Evan Dunham’s playbook by countering with shots to the body and straight up the middle. That said, we have still yet to see Held maintain a solid striking process as he is still developing his game as a young fighter.

Where things start to get even more exciting is when this party hits the floor. Not only does each man wield an underrated wrestling game, but they are also both not afraid to throw themselves into advantageous positions as well as slick submissions. Although Lauzon is the more measured fighter, he showed us in his last fight that he is not afraid to parlay a caught kick into a leg lock. Despite Held having a knack and ability to drop for leg locks from many positions, he favors working his attempts when he can get his oppoents to the fence. Similar to Rousimar Palhares, Held will typically transition into his leg locks off of single-legs from this space.

However, Lauzon is not one who is pressured easily to the fence as he is the one who is usually doing the pressuring. Furthermore, I feel that Joe’s elbows may play a relevant role in this fight anytime these two are in tight quarters. Given that Lauzon shows the stronger wrestling chops for MMA as well as the fact that Held has the propensity to sacrifice position for submission, I feel that Joe will likely be the man who ends up topside for the majority of these scenarios. Even though Held has other submissions he likes to chain off from, a large part of his grappling game is based on his ability to get to a leg.

Although Held typically has an inherent leg-lock and grappling advantage over his contemporaries in MMA, I do not feel that Held will have those same comforts here. Despite not being your typically credentialed BJJ black belt, Joe Lauzon is a longtime No-Gi grappler who is well versed in leg locks. More importantly, Lauzon is well versed in leg lock defense as he demonstrates the fundamentals that I feel will keep him safe. Maintaining an excellent base when on top, Joe does a good job playing high or controlling the head when faced with a grappler who is trying to get underneath him.

In his last outing with Jim Miller, Joe showed a good discipline when playing from topside as he was facing a grappler who has a knack for debasing his opposition. If Held fails early and often in the first round, then I suspect he may be in for a long night of eating elbows and scrambling for positions. Held has also traditionally tired as fights wear on, which makes me think he may find himself in a sink or swim scenarios that will likely favor Lauzon. Even though Joe used to show similar susceptibilities when it came to chasing submissions off cliffs, I suspect his prior experiences will lend themself nicely here as I see Lauzon finding a finish late.

Official Pick: Lauzon – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Lauzon – Split Decision

Summary:

In a competitive welterweight affair, Court McGee meets Ben Saunders. A longtime staple and inspirational figure amongst the organization, Court McGee will look to put back to back wins together for the first time since 2013. Standing in his way is Ben Saunders, who is also trying to get back in the swing of things as he looks to come up big here.

Starting off on the feet, we essentially have a promising matchup of two high-output welterweights. Although I feel that Saunders is the more dangerous striker, there is a lot to like about McGee’s game. Coming from a background in both boxing and karate, Court mixes the two seamlessly into his mixed martial arts game. Mixing in the occasional kicks with his combinations, McGee does so without sacrificing his fundamentals.

I feel that Court’s biggest strength in this fight will be his footwork. A deceptively good mover, McGee hits angles and lateral motions surprisingly well as he does his best work when firing off these opportunities. Should Court get going early, Saunders will likely find himself fighting a two-front war as McGee’s output tends to pay off in the long run as far as scorecards are concerned. However, I feel that Saunders has a slightly bigger toolkit as he will present some challenges of his own.

Despite drawing from a vast array of martial arts influences, Ben Saunders’ Muay Thai has spoken the loudest for him on the feet. A long and rangy welterweight, Ben utilizes his reach well as he quietly carries one of the highest landing percentages amongst his contemporaries. Although I feel his more plotting nature may put him at a movement disadvantage against McGee, Saunders’ sweeping Thai kicks could help him compensate for this by corralling Court into his strike zone.

Throwing kicks from high to low, Saunders does a good job of mixing up the looks that he gives his opposition. That said, he does sometimes throw his kicks naked(without strikes for disguise) which could cost him counters if he is not careful. We saw Patrick Cote capitalize on this as he would follow back the single-strike retractions of the taller man to get inside. Should McGee find his range and rhythm early, it will be interesting to see what Saunders does to adjust his approach.

Although it would not surprise me if McGee attempted to stick and move for this fight’s gameplan, he has a strong tendency to push into clinch space when coming forward with his punches. Considering that the clinch is also a place that Saunders operates comfortably from, it will be interesting to see who wins out. In Court’s defense, he seems to keep good posture to go along with his hip awareness whenever he is working on the inside. However, the long frame of Saunders only needs small openings to abuse leverage points the bring about elbows and knees.

On the ground, the on paper edge should be firmly on Saunders’ side. An experienced black belt under Ricardo Liborio, Ben has been able to work out a lot of his techniques in high-level rooms like American Top Team. Leaning more toward the rubber guard stylings in recent years, Saunders seem to have a solid grasp of his frame and how to use it at this point in his career. Preferring to work from high guard variations, Ben likes to keep his options open as he chains off from triangle to Omoplata threats.

Moving well for a man of his stature, Saunders is most dangerous when working for submissions in transition. That said, Court’s style may shut down a surprising amount of Ben’s game. Although McGee’s game is not particularly flashy, it is strong with fundamentals as styles like this tend to stifle many types of offense. Whether he is floating through positional rides or pushing against the fence, Court seems to maintain a solid sense of when to bail out of bad spots. However, if he ventures too deep into Saunders’ web, McGee may get taxed by an unsuspecting trap.

In what is an incredibly close fight on paper, I am siding with Saunders as I feel that he presents more threats standing and on the ground. That said, if Saunders does not find success in the first round, we may see McGee’s consistent output and pressure payoff in the long run. My advice is to stay away from playing this match and instead enjoy what should be a competitive affair.

Official Pick: Saunders – Decision

Official Outcome: Saunders – Split Decision

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX is a fun flyweight fight between John Moraga and Sergio Pettis. Coming off of two back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, Moraga will seek to score a much-needed comeback in front of his home state. Standing in the way of Moraga’s homecoming is Roufusport standout, Sergio Pettis. Brother to Anthony Pettis, Sergio will look to establish his name in the flyweight division by making it three straight here.

For different reasons than heavyweight fights, flyweights can also be hard to predict as most of its competitors are well-rounded and technical enough to take the fight in a different direction if need be. That said, my read on this fight felt pretty clear as I feel this battle will hinge on a few things. Starting off on the feet, Sergio should have the clear edge in the striking department given his tools and technics. Coming from a traditional Tae Kwon Do base, Sergio has, in my opinion, done a better job than his brother in regards to translating this style to the cage.

Although Sergio is not as flashy as his brother, nor does he have the highlight reel to compare, there is an economical flow to the way in which he mixes his punches and kicks, and he also works at a much more consistent pace. Not only does Sergio do a good job at mixing in his kicks seamlessly, but his point fighting style of footwork has translated well to his boxing as Pettis will use his heightened sense of range to fuel his pulls and returns. Even though Sergio has accurate jab-cross continuums he works well from, he will need to respect the power coming back at him.

One of the bigger men of the flyweight division, John Moraga is a heavy-handed fighter who was arguably one punch away from dethroning Demetrious Johnson a few years ago. Even though it has been an up and down road for the former All-American since his shot at the belt, he has continued to make efforts of improvement at the MMA Lab. Working with Eddie Cha on his striking, we have seen measurable improvements to Moraga’s overall technique as he throws some underrated leg kicks.

However, throwing leg kicks could cost him in this match considering Pettis’ propensity to catch kicks and counter. Although the on paper accolades will tell you that Moraga will want to take this fight to the ground and grind Pettis out, John rarely leans on his wrestling in the typical sense. Even though Moraga’s game is not devoid from traditional shot entries, the former All-American favors scoring his takedowns from the clinch as he will usually look for them against the fence.

Moraga arguably does his best work from a front headlock as he has some slick trips, chokes, and ride transitions from here. That said, Sergio is no slouch inside the clinch as he shows to keep good posture to go along with his consistent hand-fighting and under-hook awareness. Working with Izzy Style Wrestling for his past few camps, we have seen steady improvements to Sergio’s wrestling, especially in the transitional phases of his grappling.

Already demonstrating crafty leg dexterity and wrist controls, Sergio now shows more process and understanding to his actions as he was able to successfully navigate out of some tight spots in his last bout. Regardless of who initiates the grappling, I feel that the ground stanzas will ultimately favor the fighter who ends up on top. Although both fighter’s bottom games have cost them in the past, I feel that Sergio is the man with more options as he shows a knack for hitting sweeps and reversing position.

At the end of the day, I believe this fight will come down to each man’s output and who can establish their terms. Although Pettis has a tendency to fight fire with fire, he puts out more volume and fights at a higher overall consistency. Even though Moraga is a Jack of all trades, he has the tendency to lull activity as he often allows his opponent to establish their terms. That said, Moraga is a guy who picks up late as he will be dangerous throughout this contest. If Pettis is not careful or slips, Moraga may be able to capitalize in a similar fashion to his stablemate, Alex Caceres.

Official Pick: Pettis – Decision

Official Outcome: Pettis – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Klose def. Powell
• Saenz def. Mendes
• Oleinik def. Pesta
• Martin def. White
• Ansaroff def. Jones-Lybarger
• Harris def. Sherman
• Christensen def. Mihajlovic
• Asker def. Smoliakov