Summary:

The main event for UFC Ottawa features two of the top contending welterweights as Rory “Red King” MacDonald takes on Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Taking some time off after his fight of the year performance last July, Rory MacDonald will look to get back to his winning ways after a failed bid for the title. Seeking one step closer to said title, Stephen Thompson will look to make another statement on his steady rise through the division.

Although a Wonderboy win could be considered an upset by many standards, the oddsmakers opened up Thompson as the favorite to beat the former title challenger. Despite my official pick, I found this very surprising as most(including myself) feel that this a bad styles matchup for Stephen on paper. A technically sound and disciplined fighter with wrestling ability should be able to pose multiple problems for a free-form Karate striker. However, MacDonald’s path to victory may not be as simple against an outlier like Thompson.

Like many point-Karate based fighters, Wonderboy employs the low-handed approach that is considered fundamentally reckless within the realms of Boxing & Muay Thai. However, this style of conduction allows for a fighter to throw a multitude of strikes at various unorthodox angles. Coupled with technically sound footwork, we have seen Stephen’s natural defensive instincts steadily improve as he now combines his defensive angles with offensive counters. In other words, Thompson will step offline of an attack with just the right amount of range & angle to offensively return with immediacy(demonstrated perfectly in his last fight with Johny Hendricks).

Offensively, Thompson is just as tricky, as he often overloads his opposition with different looks through stance-switching and feints. Although primarily known for his well-disguised and dangerous kicks, I feel Stephen’s underrated punching acumen will be a key factor for him in this fight. Demonstrating almost preternatural instincts, Thompson will intercept his opposition’s oncoming attacks with consistent 1-2 combinations that are similar to a snake in the way in which he enters & retracts. Almost in a dart-like fashion, Thompson will not only move off of his offense, but often sneaks in high-kicks behind his punches(and even behind his opponents shoulders).

I know this all sounds great in theory, but how will Thompson’s skill set play into the game of MacDonald? For starters, I suspect we may see fewer kicks coming from Wonderboy given Rory’s kick-catching acumen/looming takedown threat. Working behind his patent long jab, MacDonald will force his opponent to make unfavorable choices in response to his offense. From range, Rory looks to corral his opposition into crosses & head-kicks, or force their offensive hand into coming forward as he keeps a reactive double-leg at the ready. However, Thompson’s movement can make setting up any offense difficult, as I suspect clean shots may be hard to find.

Although MacDonald has found success against switch-stance fighters like Saffiedine, he may have difficulty translating that success here. Against Tarec, Rory did a beautiful job of jabbing every time Saffiedine switched stances as this disrupted his opponent’s flow and won him the fight. That said, Saffiedine operates within the same striking standards of Rory, as the non-traditional style of Thompson may prove less symbiotic. In fact, I feel Rory’s emphasis on his jab may get him into trouble in this fight. Even though MacDonald does a great job of keeping his feet under him while moving, his tends to keep heavy on his front foot. Although this is a common side effect of a long jab with a low-level, it may fuel the more mobile Thompson’s pull & return style as he keeps lighter on the foot. Not to mention MacDonald’s lack of combination presence, which will likely allow Wonderboy to punctuate the exchanges should he achieve his angles.

Like I imagine most of you suspect, Rory will have his best chances to sway this fight on the ground. A trademark of his early UFC career, MacDonald displays a superb top-control to go along with devastating ground strikes that can turn the tide of any fight. Although he can test, or even take Thompson to task here, Rory may find difficulty in getting him to the floor. In recent years, Rory has shown to be much more selective about his shots in the open, as well as his reactive shots. With MacDonald usually keeping to high-percentage attempts, Thompson may fair well in the open considering that he operates off of angles. Most of MacDonalds offensive shots(and offense in general) comes when he can get his opposition in between the fence and inner-black Octagon lines. With this also being Thompson’s preferred fighting space, one would think this plays right into Rory’s hands.

However, like the initial assessment of on-paper advantages, outliers like Thompson can often put a wrench in things. One of the best lateral movers in the sport, Stephen is more than comfortable capitalizing off the counter or resetting to range. More importantly, keeping within earshot of the cage allows Thompson to defend takedowns using the fence. Making fight-to-fight improvements on his wrestling, Stephen now shows comfort in keeping upright and countering clinches. Proving himself in these departments against fighters like Hendricks, Ellenberger, and Cote, I would not be surprised if he can give fits to MacDonald. Should Rory fail in close, he will need to mind Stephen’s strikes off the break as I see that being a key opening for Thompson. Although MacDonald has all the tools to win on paper, I feel that the alternate operating systems of Wonderboy will dictate the terms of this fight.

Official Pick: Thompson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Thompson – Decision

Summary:

Canada’s co-main event features a fantastic pairing of kickboxing veterans, as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off with Patrick “The Predator” Cote. Never one to back down from a fight, fan-favorite Cowboy Cerrone will be going into enemy territory for this bout. Although this will be Donald’s second official fight at 170-pounds, this will be his first time facing an actual welterweight. Originally debuting in the UFC’s light-heavyweight division, Patrick Cote has seemingly had a career resurgence since moving down to welterweight. Riding a three-fight winning streak, Cote will be looking to make a big statement on Canadian soil.

From his hard fought resume to his highlight-reel head kicks, it is not hard to see why Cowboy comes in as the favorite for this contest. However, I see some stylistic flags that I feel may favor his Canadian counterpart. Although most of Cerrone’s losses come at the hands of southpaws, the common thread of struggle in victory & defeat for Cowboy is the way in which he deals with pressure fighting. Most of Cerrone’s primary weapons are only in play when he is the one conducting the dance. When he is not leading, Donald will look to retreat and reset the terms of offense to his preferred range.

The problem with that equation lies within Cerrone’s upright posture, as he will often exit with his head straight up and hands slightly out of defensive position. Against competent pressure strikers, this habit has traditionally opened up Cerrone to right-hands as we saw in his fights with Eddie Alvarez & Edson Barboza. Considering that Cote’s renown for his devastating power and right-hand setups, I feel that punch, in particular, will likely be a key factor in this fight. Initially known for his pocket brawling abilities, Patrick Cote has steadily sharpened his technical kickboxing game.

Consistently stalking his opponents, Cote compliments fundamentally sound footwork with feints in the effort to draw out his opposition’s counters. Considering the kicking acumen of Cowboy, I suspect Cote will double up in the feinting department as he did against previous kicking threats in Kyle Noke & Stephen Thompson. If Patrick can continually force this fight into pocket & clinch ranges, I feel that he should come out on top of most of the exchanges. And if forward pressure and durability fail to earn Cote a fight-changing shot, I suspect it will help him gain favor on the judges scorecards.

In the spirit of winning rounds, Cote also has shown a knack for late-round takedowns that have been a staple in his resurgence. Showing a decent reactive shot, Cote’s most technical improvements come off of his single-leg chains and finishes. That said, Cowboy will be no easy task to take down as he bears underrated wrestling abilities of his own. Although Cowboy has the skills to take down the Canadian, Cerrone has only shown to shoot when stunned as of late. In his fights with Barboza, Alvarez, and most recently Oliveira, Cowboy was hit by said over-hand right availabilities before deciding to engage in grappling.

Regardless of who ends up on top in grappling exchanges, the key junctions on the ground will lie within the transitions. Though primarily known for his guard game, Cerrone is most lethal with his submissions while scrambling in transit. However, Cote has shown to make solid defensive choices in the scramble that may make him difficult to catch soberly. Cowboy’s best chance of hurting Cote may be by catching him on the way in with a knee(similarly to how Kyle Noke did in round 2 of their fight). But if Cerrone fails to hurt the durable Cote, he may ultimately find himself fighting for kicking range and eating shots off of the break.

Official Pick: Cote – Decision

Official Outcome: Cerrone – TKO (round 3)

Summary:

In a potential fan-friendly scrap at light-heavyweight, Canada’s Steve Bosse takes on the always game Sean O’Connell. Despite Bosse’s previous bouts of injury and inactivity, the French Canadian is now making a second career run as he currently stands 1-1 in the UFC. No stranger to fighting in enemy territory, Sean O’Connell will look to get back on the winning track after a disappointing loss to Ilir Latifi earlier this year.

A former Hockey enforcer, Bosse has seamlessly translated his natural athletic abilities into his MMA game. Not just a skilled dirty boxer inside, Bosse has also made technical strides in his striking these last few years. Training for a boxing bout before making his return to MMA, Steve has shown improvements in moving with his punches. Bosse’s athleticism particularly shines through in his movement, as he closes the distance deceptively fast. In fact, I feel speed will be the key factor for him in this matchup.

Although Steve may have a speed advantage, that does not mean O’Connell is an athletic slouch by any stretch. The former collegiate football player has shown that he bears the intangibles of durability, power, and a fighter’s heart that can help turn the tide of any battle. Consistently stalking forward, O’Connell throws with an impressive flow of volume, especially for heavier weight fighter. This trudging Nick Diaz-like style has shown it can be costly for O’Connell who often overwhelms his opposition after surviving the initial storms.

However, it is in Sean’s forward moving high-volume approach that usually gets him into trouble. Despite displaying improved head movement off of strikes, Sean still traditionally takes damage by the virtue of his stalking style. With his significant strikes landed ratio nearly identical to his strikes absorbed(6.5 per minute), O’Connell’s fights can often feel like predicting a coin flip. That said, I believe O’Connell brings certain tools that may serve him well.

With Bosse’s particular boxing acumen, the French Canadian demonstrates a heavy crouch upon his entries that he often uses to set up his right hand. However, in leaning so heavily to his right side, Steve subsequently leans his head into any attacks that come from that direction(as seen in his fight with Thiago Santos). Although O’Connell is not particularly known for his left high kicks, Sean does possess an accurate left hook that could see the light of day. Not to mention O’Connell’s patent right-hand follow-ups, which could be especially effective considering Steve’s habit of retracting his left-hand low.

That said, Steve does not make himself as available in exchanges as Sean is a custom to, as I feel the French Canadian’s footwork will help his efforts here. I am a big fan of Sean O’Connell fights as I believe he has all the intangibles to make this the type of war he thrives in. However, his propensity to pressure may play into Bosse’s hands as I ultimately feel that speed will be the difference.

Official Pick: Bosse – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Bosse Decision

Summary:

In another encounter in the UFC’s lightweight division, Olivier Aubin-Mercier squares off against Thibault Gouti. A finalist off TUF Nations, Aubin-Mercier has been steadily improving his game at the Tristar Gym. Coming off a hard-fought loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira earlier this year, the French Canadian will look to get a win in his home country. Attempting to play the spoiler, Thibault Gouti will make his second appearance in the Octagon as he searches for his first UFC win.

Spending the last 8-weeks at Jackson-Wink MMA in New Mexico, it will be interesting to see what improvements the French-based fighter has been able to make. Regardless of those intangibles, Gouti appears to be a fast learner when you look at his 4-year career span and fight-to-fight improvements. Developing a particular taste for the ground game, the Frenchman possesses a solid double-leg as he changes levels surprisingly well. Demonstrating technical intricacies such as shoulder pressure and positional floating, Thibault will look to steadily work over his opponents from topside before attacking with submissions.

The problem with that approach is that it is also his opposition’s specialty, as Aubin-Mercier’s accolades would suggest an on-paper advantage. A multiple-time Judo champion, Olivier has subsequently taken quickly to both Jiu-jitsu and MMA. Teaming up with Firas Zahabi in Montreal, Aubin-Mercier has added to all phases of his game, including his ability to transition in between them. Although he is not at the level of stablemate Georges St. Pierre, Olivier displays a consistent process as he steadily improves each time out.

Although I am not sure how much Aubin-Mercier will elect to stand with Gouti, his recent experiences in the Octagon proved he has the tools and composure to stay competitive. Although Olivier throws a solid left-hand and right hook, his best weapon is undoubtedly his left power kick. Against an orthodox opponent, this kick should certainly have play in this fight. However, that lane of striking is a two-way street that could work against Olivier. Despite not hailing from a background in striking, Thibault throws a solid right cross off of his jab that could find it’s home in this fight.

Regardless of the flow of grappling or striking stanzas, I suspect Olivier will be able to corral Gouti to the fence in efforts to control him. Not only is this a staple of Aubin-Mercier’s game, but it is also a place where Thibault lacks experience given his background in a cageless French MMA scene. Ultimately, I feel Olivier’s grappling is more proven at a higher level as I see that being the deciding factor here.

Official Pick: Aubin-Mercier – Decision

Official Outcome: Aubin-Mercier – Submission (round 3)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card is the UFC’s first female flyweight fight, as Valerie “Trouble” Letourneau takes on Joanne “JoJo” Calderwood. Coming off a failed bid for the strawweight title last November, the former bantamweight will search for middle-ground as Valerie looks to get back on the winning track. Now training in her Canadian counterpart’s backyard, Scotland’s own Calderwood will also be looking to experiment her skill set at a new weight class.

As seen above in the above supplemental sections for both ladies, these two fight styles line up very similarly on paper. Since both combatants possess a solid takedown defense rate with a high propensity to trade, I suspect most of this match to contest standing on the feet. With both women’s stalking tendencies tailor-made for a collision course, I will attempt to give my take on what we could see from each fighter.

Also known as “Dr. Kneevil“, Joanne Calderwood has a knack for knees on the inside or off the shuffle. Feinting effectively off of her Thai marches, Calderwood enters off a multitude of strikes she carries in her arsenal. Favoring uppercut-hook combinations to get going, Joanne often scores with a nice check-jab as she exits exchanges. In fact, I feel Calderwood’s propensity to finish combinations off of her left side will serve her particularly well in this fight, especially considering that Letourneau has traditionally struggled with her right eye in contests.

Even though Valerie’s lack of head movement and willingness to trade consistently costs her damage, the same can be said for Calderwood. Similar to a Thomas Almeida, Calderwood’s aggressive application of combinations often come with the cost of counters. Consistently countered by right hands over the top in her last few bouts, this will certainly be a key factor for a Letourneau victory as that is her best punch. Valerie also possesses excellent check hooks and left switch kicks she uses to dissuade her oncoming opposition.

However, I feel the kicking advantage in this contest should belong to the Scottish fighter. Although Calderwood’s leg kicks may be very effective given Letourneau’s last outing, I see Joanne’s teep kick carrying some real value in this fight. As seen in Calderwood’s fight with Ham, she packs a powerful and accurate teep kick. Considering Valerie was caught by this technique on multiple occasions in her fight with Joanna Jedrzejczyk, this could be something to look for from Calderwood.

Just as their ground skills are a wash on paper, the clinch battle may be equally challenging for each fighter. Calderwood does a deceptively good job inside the clinch as she keeps an excellent position of her head at all times. Keeping busy with elbows and knees, one would think the Muay Thai maelstrom of Calderwood would command an advantage. However, Letourneau’s over-hook approach in close was able to nullify the ferocious forearm framing of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, as I don’t suspect the Canadian will make things easy for Calderwood.

In what is a very close fight, I feel this contest’s key intangibles lie with Calderwood and her last year spent training at Tristar Gym. When you look at Joanne’s skill set on paper, the main things missing are wrestling applications, ring generalship, and jab fundamentals. With all three of those things being something that Firas Zahabi specializes in instilling into his fighters, this could be a perfect fit as we may see a much improved martial artist. Ultimately, I feel Letourneau struggles when faced with Muay Thai based strikers that can match her in volume. Although I am leaning toward Calderwood to get the nod, I recommend caution if you intend on playing this all-action affair.

Official Pick: Calderwood – Decision

Official Outcome: Calderwood – TKO (round 3)

Preliminary Card Predictions

• Saggo def. Silva
• Cirkunov def. Cutelaba
• McCrory def. Jotko
• Soto def. Beal
• Alvey def. Theodorou
• Jones-Lybarger def. Markos
• Covington def. Meunier
• Herrera def. Bagautinov

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