Summary:

The main event in Mexico City features a showdown between the former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos and the division’s most dangerous contender in Tony Ferguson. Looking the bounce back from a crushing defeat to Eddie Alvarez earlier this year, Rafael Dos Anjos will have no easy path back to his recently lost title. Standing in the Brazilian’s way is Tony Ferguson, who aside from a decision loss to Michael Johnson back in May of 2012, has remained perfect in the UFC’s deepest division. That said, Tony will be risking his 8-fight winning streak against a hungry former champion.

Starting off on the feet, we will be subject to an interesting battle of pressure fighters. However, each man applies said pressure in slightly different ways. Although Dos Anjos is no stranger to marching forward with success, the Brazilian is a bit more flexible in his approach as he will circle just outside of range when he needs to. I suspect that we will see the disciplined Dos Anjos apply that measured approach of pressure here. An almost frantic forward mover, Tony Ferguson can seldom be found taking a back step in watching tape on his fights. Whether he is feinting or throwing, Ferguson consistently puts pressure on his opponents as he looks to half-step his way into kill shots.

That said, Tony will likely need to lean on his jab as I see that being a key factor in this fight. Not only will the length of an accurate jab be useful against the oncoming pocket engagements of RDA, but the angle in which Ferguson throws it could be particularly effective against the Brazilian. Usually keeping his lead hand low, Tony’s jab will come at a slightly upward angle which could find it’s home against a shorter, shelling opponent. However, missed jabs could cost Ferguson dearly as Dos Anjos loves to slip and rip his way into the pocket.

Typically slipping off to his right side, Dos Anjos will throw his left hand down the center as he variates between the head and body. Whether RDA is throwing his hard left hands or Thai kicks, the Brazilian will usually counterbalance his attack with his right hook as I suspect this may be the strike to watch for from the former champ. Not only does Tony’s tall stature make him available for such shots naturally, but he is also typically caught upright when retracting his strikes low. Considering that RDA likes to collide strikes and follow retractions, the Brazilian’s power will be most potent in these spaces.

However, Rafael has some tendencies of his own the may make him vulnerable inside the pocket. Often planting his heels to hold his ground, Dos Anjos tends to get wide on his retractions as he wings his shots from left to right. Although RDA usually has the upper hand in these stanzas(being that he is bombing from below), he will still need to be mindful of Ferguson’s dangerous and diverse arsenal. The shot I see being most effective for Ferguson is his uppercut. Even though Dos Anjos does a better job of retracting his strikes, he typically reverts to a shell guard that traditionally exposes him to uppercuts(going all the way back to his loss against Stephens and as recently as his win over Pettis).

The biggest on-paper edge in striking should come within the kicking realm. Between training in Singapore to his work with the renown Rafael Cordeiro, RDA has steadily found a way to bring baseball bats into the Octagon in the form of his legs. Embracing his southpaw stance, Dos Anjos will throw his left leg with impunity to the liver and lead legs of his opponents. Even when blocked, you can see the discomfort in it’s recipients as RDA hits with an arm breaking intent. Considering that Ferguson broke his arm defending kicks from a southpaw in his lone UFC loss, expect Dos Anjos to be throwing early and often. Although Tony is primarily a puncher, he will still have a presence at kicking range due to his preferred weapons of choice.

Despite not being known as traditional Thai kicker, Tony throws a decent teep kick that could disrupt an oncoming RDA. Although Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis would both inevitably lose to Dos Anjos, they were each effective with their front kick variations nearly every time that they threw them. Considering that Tony already appears to carry one in his toolkit, we may see him utilize it more to capitalize on his length. Whether they are kicking or clinching, I feel that the key-intangible will come down to who has the takedown intent. In looking at Dos Anjos’ recent career trend and Tony’s traditional struggles, it is almost a no-brainer that RDA should have a clear motive in making his way topside(which is probably why he is favored on paper).

However, almost all of Dos Anjos’ takedowns are attempted when he can get his opponent’s back to the cage, a place that you seldom find Ferguson. For someone who rarely takes a back step, Tony does a deceptively good job at slipping & rolling his head out of ugly spots and darting off to safe angles. Couple that with his already solid sprawl and takedown defense(when he’s not dropping for submissions), and things may start to get interesting should RDA be forced out of his preferred fight. The Brazilian does have a reactive shot that I see being effective against an aggressive El Cucuy, but largely only goes to it when under heavy fire. Should Tony be the one who pursues the takedowns, then I feel that RDA will be in real trouble of the script being flipped.

Although the former champion’s smash & pass styling has served him well on top, I do not feel he is nearly as effective when on the bottom. Usually electing to retain guard despite not having an active bottom game, we have seen RDA traditionally struggle with fighters who can wrestle. Despite making huge improvements to his getup game and overall wrestling in recent years, Dos Anjos still shows to struggle when defending shots as a tired Anthony Pettis was able to score a takedown in the fourth round of their fight. Although that is in no way a condemnation of RDA’s abilities(as he was able to get right up), it does show me that Tony is likely but a choice away from making this into a difficult fight.

That said, Ferguson is not know for taking traditional shots as he prefers to initiate his grappling efforts in the form of a front-headlock. A huge proponent of the snap down, Tony will create his own opportunities to take the fight into his realm as we saw Ferguson seal Vannatta’s fate by catching Lando in a front-headlock as he was rolling away from his punches. Considering how well Tony transitions between chokes to back-takes from here, the front-headlock will undoubtedly be a key-factor in this fight. Although Dos Anjos keeps a strong posture inside the clinch as he seldom overstays his welcome, Tony’s height and length will naturally create scenarios that will keep the former champ in check anytime his level lowers. Failed shots from RDA could also give way to these situations, or at the very least dissuade further attempts as the fight wears on.

Regardless of who ends up on top in the ground stanzas, I feel the scale of this fight will eventually slant to one side. Dos Anjos has an ideal grappling style to contend with Tony Ferguson. A positional grappler with solid submission defense, Dos Anjos does a good job at keeping his hands inside(on the chest or inside bicep controls) as he maintains a form of head-to-head pressure. This type of fundamental top game is great for disrupting or defending against high-guard styles like the rubber guard. That said, Tony has showed a steady improvement to his fight IQ as he is much more urgent in not allowing positions to stagnate. Even in his victories, we have seen Ferguson succeed rounds due to his willingness to fight from his back. Although RDA has the skills to recreate that type of environment, I feel that his efforts may evolve into diminishing returns should he not produce a finish.

Although both men are training at altitude and are already known for their conditioning, I believe that Ferguson’s ferocity is on another level in regards to pace. Whether it is his hard work or natural ability, Tony consistently fights at a breakneck pace that not only drowns his opposition, but also comes close to drowning himself in the process. However, a durable chin and preternatural ability to compose and recover has kept him alive in the sink-or-swim environment he creates. Even if RDA takes control early on(which is likely considering Tony tends to have a tough first round), I feel that the wheels will start to come off as soon as this fight enters the scrambling realm.

Even though RDA is no slouch in the scramble, I feel Ferguson is on another level as I see his patent granby roll playing a big factor in close spaces. Whether he is looking to ground a fighter or control a scramble, RDA favors re-wrestling for double-legs or transitioning to side rides when appropriate. Although these are solid control options in MMA, they still allow enough space for your hips to hit a granby roll if you know what you’re doing, and Tony Ferguson does. In fact, we have seen Ferguson hit his granby rolls in mid-air against Josh Thomson as he reversed what were solid attempts from the Punk. If Tony is not taking a leg or a limb in his rolling efforts, the scramble usually makes for a space that forces the opposing fighter to chose between standing and re-wrestling.

It is in these specific exchanges where I see the former champion potentially slipping. Even if RDA avoids giving up a front-headlock through the typical routes of a failed shot or turtle-out, his favored getup technique(especially inside of a scramble) is an under-hook getup. Although I am a huge proponent of the under-hook to single-leg getup in MMA, this technique can make you vulnerable to guillotines and D’arce chokes if you are not careful. Unless you are diligent with your head to hip position and keep your under-hook below the ass(as opposed to underneath the armpit), then you inherently put yourself at risk of these chokes–especially against a specialist with long limbs like Ferguson. Unless Dos Anjos can catch an upright El Cucuy early and often, then I see the former champion eventually drowning in his own success and likely suffering his first submission loss.

Official Pick: Ferguson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Ferguson – Decision

Summary:

The co-main event for Mexico City is fun fight in the lightweight division as Diego Sanchez welcomes Marcin Held to the UFC. The original Ultimate Fighter winner with a pro-career dating back to 2002, Diego Sanchez is still competing in the UFC’s most stacked division. With no easy tasks at lightwieght, Sanchez will meet Marcin Held who has spent the last five years of his young career cutting his teeth in the Bellator organization.

Given each man’s aggression and intentions on the feet, it is hard to say just how long the stanzas will last. However, the longer things remain standing, the more likely Sanchez will be at an advantage considering his opponents strengths. Although Sanchez is the better striker on paper, I do not feel it will be by much as his Polish opponent has displayed the fight-to-fight improvements that young fighters tend to make. Despite Held’s grappling intentions being no secret, the Pole has punched his way into space much more convincingly in recent bouts.

Marcin has also demonstrated better hand-positioning as he retracts to–and throws from a more proper standing guard. Held’s best strike by far is his left hook, as I suspect this will be the strike to look for from him. Although Marcin primarily moves forward when throwing his hooks, he adapts them nicely into checks when thrown defensively. Not only is the check-hook an excellent weapon against aggressive strikers, but Sanchez has traditionally struggled against that strike in particular throughout his career. Often coming forward with a low hand-position, Sanchez also has a tendency to retract his strikes low and wide.

These tendencies have traditionally opened up Diego to hooks off the counter and inside exchanges. However, that same aggression is also what makes Diego so dangerous as he will throw his arsenal unabashedly coming forward. Although he is often associated with his wide hooks and uppercuts, I feel that Sanchez’s patent left Thai kick will be the most troubling shot for Held. Not only will the striking-lane of Diego’s left kick be wide open given the stance matchup, but Marcin has a tendency to lean heavily to his right side. Although a fighter leaning to their power side is not neccesarily abnormal, I doubt it will help Held as this habit will only further put him into Diego’s power strikes.

Where I feel this fight gets exciting, is the moment things hit the floor. Of all the things said on Diego Sanchez, surprisingly little is said about his grappling game as I feel it is underrated. Although Sanchez has not leaned on his grappling as heavily as he once did, this is a fight where his skills will undoubtedly be called upon and tested. Regardless of who can ground the other fighter, these grappling exchanges will not be decided over simple top versus bottom scenarios. Each grapplers game is heavily reliant on the scramble, but both go about it in different ways.

Coming from a more traditional wrestling base, Diego will utilize switches or out-swim his opponents positionally when looking to turtle and stand. Although his submission skills are seldom on display, Sanchez is a superb back-taker as he shows a preternatural ability to snatch a back in transition. Marcin Held, on the other hand, will succeed to traditional trouble spots before creating a scramble that will flip the fortunes of those involved. As a leg-lock specialist, Held is the perfect type of grappler to disrupt traditional stylings as leg-locks allow you to attack and create scrambles from positions where most players feel helpless from.

As an experienced competition grappler who is not shy about dropping for a leg himself, one would think that Diego should be able to navigate the trouble spots and out-scramble his opposition. That said, Sanchez’s aggressive nature on the feet–often follows him to the floor as I suspect that may get him into trouble here. Not only is Held’s level of submission chaining a real threat, but the Pole’s kill zone resides in a neighborhood that Sanchez often travels through. Even when winning positional stanzas, Sanchez’s said aggression tends to cost him these positions through failed transitions and submission attempts.

A superb scrambler with solid submission defense, Sanchez has been able to get away with his sporadic stylings thus far. However, he may finally get caught speeding considering that Held makes his money when his opposition thinks they are working for a better position. Even when Diego is controlling a position, you will seldom see Sanchez emphasize any type of head control which I find very troubling for this matchup. Whenever grappling a leg-lock specialist or superior scrambler, controlling the head his key in killing their momentum and intentions of getting underneath you.

Unless Diego can overcome his habbits and grapple in a more disciplined style, then we may see Sanchez in some precarious positions that we are not acustom to. Although Diego has the skills and experience to win this fight everywhere on paper, his traditional agression and recent career trends make it difficult to pick him. Even though he should be favored on the feet, Diego has been dropped or hurt in 8 of his last 11-fights. With a debuting fighter facing an aging veteran in a potent styles fight, I suggest staying away from any major plays. That said, I feel Sanchez’s propensity to play with fire will get him burned unless he finds another way home.

Official Pick: Held – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Sanchez – Decision

Summary:

In a fun featherweight fight, Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas meets Charles “Du Bronx” Oliveira. Coming off a hard-fought loss to Max Holloway last June, Lamas will look to get back on the horse after a disappointing card cancellation, where Ricardo was originally slated to headline against BJ Penn. Filling the void of an injured Penn is Charles Oliveira, who is also eager to get back in the 145-pound Que following his loss to Anthony Pettis this past Summer.

Starting off on the feet, I expect we will see the Muay Thai marching of Oliveira versus the circling and setting offense of Ricardo Lamas. Despite the wrestling and grappling credentials of Lamas, he is deceptively agile on the feet as he throws spins kicks and evades attacks almost effortlessly. However, the strange part about Ricardo’s striking style is that you will seldom, if ever, see him attempt to counter his opposition. That said, I do not think that will necessarily be a bad thing against a fighter like Du Bronx.

Although Oliveira will undoubtedly be open for counters as he comes forward, the Brazilian welcomes these engagements as his game is built to capitalize inside of chaotic, close quarters. Whether he is unleashing knees & elbows or looking to take the fight to the floor, Du Bronx can instantly become dangerous whenever you are within his grasp. With Lamas not being one to play inside the pocket, I expect to see his standard stick-and-move approach as The Bully favors prodding with his diverse kick arsenal.

Despite a lack of accuracy in his spinning attacks, Lamas more than makes up for it with his powerful body and leg kicks. In fact, I believe that Lamas’ leg and body attacks will be a key factor in this particular matchup. No slouch when it comes to kicking, Charles has some nice kicks of his own as he throws solid teeps and leg kicks off the shuffle. However, the Brazilian has always seemed to lack a defensive presence when it comes to blocking kicks–particularly when thrown to the body.

Consistently reverting to a shell defense, Charles has traditionally been susceptible to body shots. In fact, 2 of 3 TKO losses sustained by Oliveira were triggered by body shots that seemingly crippled the Brazilian. Whether or not this specific fragility is due to the issues Oliveira has had making the weight(officially missing the limit 3-times at featherweight), body kicks will certainly be the strike to look out for from Lamas.

Where things start to get tricky–is when this fight hits the clinch. A place that is usually considered a safety zone for Lamas, now becomes a consistent danger zone to the touch as Oliveira needs only but a limb to initiate his sticky style of clinching. It will be interesting to see what adjustments Lamas makes to his clinch game, especially in the under-hook and head position department when considering what Charles can do with the grasp of a neck or over-hook.

I suspect we may see Lamas elect for a body lock whenever these two are in close. We saw Hatsu Hioki and Nik Lentz both have success early against Du Bronx by utilizing a body lock to navigate the clinch and take him down(although they were both ultimately submitted). Never the less, the body lock is a solid takedown option as it helps neutralize guard attacks and increases pass percentages once you hit the floor. However, the second you touch down on the mat with Oliveira you have to be on high alert for a sneaky submission attempt.

That said, it is not the first attempt of Oliveira you need to worry about as the Brazilian chains submissions one-after-another like he is firing them from an M-60 machine gun. Charles will use his diverse approach to force his opposition into poor decision making as he capitalizes on traps or drowns them in interweaving submission waves. Even though Du Bronx is dangerous from all positions, Lamas shows the positional awareness and defensive tendencies that should help him stay safe.

Diligent with his hand positioning, Lamas fights very well from inside the guard as his grip fighting fundamentals allow him the opportunities to deliver devastating blows. Intelligent hand positioning is also the silent hero when it comes to disrupting an opponent’s offense, as I suspect Lamas will be looking to do plenty of stifling against the aggressive Oliveira. Where I see Lamas at a potential disadvantage–is anytime these two get into a scrambling scenario. Although Ricardo is no slouch when it comes to scrambling, it is the way in which he does so that may put him at risk with Oliveira.

Even though I am a big fan of fighters choosing to use transitional spaces and scramble opportunities to re-wrestle for position, this effort often involves giving your head as you reach in for a single or double-leg takedown. Despite these techniques serving Ricardo well in his MMA career, giving a head or front-headlock position away to Du Bronx can be as good as a death warrant. Having a knack for finding a neck in transit, Oliveira’s long frame also allows him to lock up Anaconda variations(Bronx choke) as we saw the Brazillian hand Hatsu Hioki his first submission loss.

I agree that Ricardo Lamas should be favored to win this fight as he has more paths to victory, but this is a close contest no matter which way you cut it. Ultimately, I see Ricard able to dictate the terms of battle which is why I will be siding with him as my official pick. That said, I recommend caution in playing this matchup due to the intangibles and trap-fight feel that Du Bronx often brings.

Official Pick: Lamas – Decision

Official Outcome: Lamas – Submission (round 2)

Summary:

In a battle of Top-15 lightweights, Beneil Dariush takes on Rashid Magomedov. A stablemate and friend to former champion Rafael Dos Anjos, Beneil Dariush has made a name for himself as he ascends the UFC rankings. Standing in his way is a Dagestani who has yet to taste defeat inside the Octagon, as Dariush draws the division’s dark horse, Rashid Magomedov.

Despite Magomedov being one of the most skilled strikers in the division, Dariush will be his stiffest test standing thus far in his UFC tenor. Although Beneil came into MMA as an accomplished grappler, he has steadily rounded out his game under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro. Initially more of a stick-and-move stylist, Dariush has developed a taste for pressure-fighting as he has gotten more and more comfortable moving forward.

Prodding jabs with his right-hand measures the target for Beneil, as the Iranian usually favors unleashing a left cross or kick to follow. Although Dariush’s left hand appears to get more dangerous each time out, his baseball bat for a left leg may be his best weapon in this fight. Throwing it with accuracy and impunity, he could slow down the consistently moving Magomedov should he find his range early. That said, Rashid’s footwork and management of distance are the quiet x-factors in his game.

More of a slow burn than a slow starter, Rashid Magomedov will steadily find his rhythm as he primarily looks for the counter. Depending on the matchup, a technical–counter fighter can do quite well when faced with a pressuring opponent, especially if their footwork is in order. Rashid, for example, is traditionally difficult to pin against the fence due to his application of defensive pivots which allow him to angle out. These options are crucial when facing a fighter like Dariush, who looks to land his big strikes and takedown attempts in that space.

Where I see Magomedov having an edge in the exchanges, is when I look at the strike retractions of Dariush. Already carrying a slightly-low standing guard, Dariush will also retract his strikes low as well. Against an accurate counter striker like Magomedov, Beneil may get more than he bargains for in exchanges. In fact, I feel that Rashid’s check left hook will be one of the strikes to look out for in this fight. Even though the Iranian does a good job of getting his head off the centerline, he tends to lean heavily to his right side.

Not only does this put Dariush in the danger zone for a check hook, but it will also put him in the path of Magomedovs lead left kicks. Possessing excellent speed and dexterity in his legs, there is little telegraph to the kicks of Rashid Magomedov. Not only does the Dagestani use them to punctuate his combinations, but he will also sneak them in over his opponent’s shoulder when drawing them in off of a baiting jab. Should Magomedov slip Dariush’s initial offerings, the Iranian may find himself on the losing end of exchanges should he not mind his head and hand positioning.

Although I see Magomedov having the edge standing, Dariush’s advantages will certainly be on the ground. A jiu-jitsu player who’s game converts well to MMA, Dariush’s rock solid composure translates seamlessly to his grappling. Displaying an excellent pressure from topside, Beneil will use his shoulder to pin down his opponent’s head. From here, Dariush will look to threaten with an arm triangle choke, but usually only uses it as a smokescreen to disguise a pass. Should Magomedov find himself on the floor, he will likely have these tricks and more thrown at him.

The problem for Beneil is that I am not so sure he will be able to take this fight to the floor. Averaging only one takedown per fight, Dariush does not need much in regards to opportunities to find a finish. That said, a lot of the ground stanzas that Dariush has capitalized on has come more from his opponent’s mistakes than his successful takedowns. Against a fighter who is renown for his takedown defense and movement, these opportunities may become fewer as the fight moves forward.

Even if Beneil can get Rashid to the fence, his favored single and double-leg variations may be difficult to execute considering that Magomedov is excellent at utilizing high and tight over-hooks. Using the over-hook to hoist his opponents upward, Rashid makes it difficult for attackers to establish control of his hips. Magomedov also displays an excellent base and balance that surely helps assist his upright efforts. Although there is not a huge sample-size on Rashid’s ground game, he has been in some troublesome spots that show me he has a solid positional awareness and understanding.

When most people are impressed by high-flying submissions, it is the little things that impress me most about a martial artist. Magomedov shows glimpses of this in his grappling by the way in which he applies certain intricacies. Whether he is disrupting his opponent’s grip with a wrist control or appropriately framing away with his back to the fence, Magomedov shows the grappling IQ that not only impresses me–but tells me that he is aware of where he needs to be against dangerous grapplers. Although Dariush is more well-rounded than Magomedov’s recent submission opposition, I feel that the Dagestani’s slick counters and elusive footwork will likely earn him a decision.

Official Pick: Magomedov – Decision

Official Outcome: Dariush – Decision

Summary:

Due to my personal affiliation with Xtreme Couture MMA and it’s fighters, I have chosen to not breakdown this matchup.

Official Pick: No pick

Official Outcome: Grasso – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Bravo def. Puelles(*main card)
• Perez def. Arantes
• Soto def. Beltran
• Griffin def. Montano
• Andrade def. Briones
• Alvey def. Nicholson
• Reyes def. Novelli
• Barzola def. Avila

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