UFC London: Manuwa vs Anderson Breakdown

Summary:

The main event in London is a battle between two of light heavyweight’s most promising talents as Jimi Manuwa meets Corey Anderson.

An athletic outlier who took up arms in this sport late in life, Jimi Manuwa has continued to impress us with action-fights each time out. Stunning the oddsmakers against Ovince Saint Preux in October of last year, Manuwa now has his sights set on derailing the rise of another contender.

A raw talent who won season 19 of The Ultimate Fighter, Corey Anderson has shown to be a poster boy himself in regards to hard work. Moving to New Jersey to train under the tutelage of Mark Henry & Co.(Nick Catone included) for the better part of two years, we have seen consistent fight-to-fight improvements from Anderson.

Starting off on the feet, we essentially have a pairing of two pressure-fighters who go about achieving their goals in two different ways. The more technical striker in Manuwa will utilize pressure through feints to force his opposition into uncomfortable exchanges.

Despite often throwing his strikes in no more than one-to-two at a time, Manuwa arguably makes up for this with the accuracy of his arsenal. Mixing his targets up appropriately, the Englishman conducts traffic brilliantly off of his lead side. Whether he is variating his left hooks from body-to-head or sneaking in switch-kicks upstairs/to the inside leg, there is no soft side to Manuwa as everything seems to carry potency.

A more traditional pressure-fighter in regards to the realm of MMA, Corey Anderson achieves his desired cooking temperatures through a high-output approach of striking volume and transitional takedown threats. Using this rise-wash-repeat method, Anderson will steadily tenderize spirits as he marinates his flavor into fights.

Even though Anderson’s striking volume has won him many of rounds in the Octagon thus far, it is his transition game that makes him effective. Similarly to his stablemate Frankie Edgar, Anderson mixes in volume and variety to keep his opposition behind the 8-ball.

However, despite Anderson’s ever-growing offense, he still has shown defensive liabilities that could see the light in this fight. Like many high-volume strikers, Anderson runs the risk of getting hit early and often if his entries are not technically sound from hands to feet.

Sometimes overstaying his welcome inside of space, we have seen Anderson countered and caught by big rights hands in his battles with Gian Villante, Tom Lawlor, and Shogun Rua. Despite Manuwa not being your traditional “lay in wait” counter striker, he demonstrated the effectiveness of his right hand in his last fight as he followed OSP’s lackadaisical strike retractions and intercepted him over the top.

Should “Mr. Anderson” stay inside of the Manuwa’s matrix for too long, he could meet a similar fate as he has shown a chin that is more than human. However, Anderson has also recovered from all but one of those sticky situations as he has arguably come back stronger in(and within) every fight.

Where my opinion starts to shift, is when looking the prospects and potential of grappling exchanges. As we have seen with so many young up-and-comers who have wrestling bases, they often fall in love with their striking for better or in the big picture, often worse. That said, Anderson’s last fight, in my opinion, was a sign of positive trends and trajectory.

Although Anderson’s previous opponent was not necessarily the best measuring stick in regards to raw skills, it was the American’s approach that impressed me the most as he elected the path of least resistance and utilized his patent transition game.

Not only was Anderson able to ground his opponent, but he also was able to keep him down, a problem that has been a persistent theme in looking closely at his previous fights. Anderson always displayed a solid understanding of levers and wrist-rides as he would actively pick off his opposition’s posts, but his eagerness to apply his high-volume offense would often allow for openings to stand.

Noting this issue, Anderson showed to adjust his approach against Sean O’Connell, utilizing heavy shoulder pressure to keep positions as well as implementing safer rides like a three-quarter mount(ala Demian Maia).

Even though I feel that Manuwa has an underrated deep-half game that he uses to create scrambles and stand, the technical specifics of Anderson, coupled with his recent choices, tells me that Manuwa may be in for rough waters should he end up having to work from the bottom.

For that reason, I will be interested to see the way in which Manuwa elects to defend takedowns. A previously mentioned outlier, the Englishmen’s athleticism translates well into his hips as he has a solid reactionary sprawl. Working a deceptively good front-headlock game, Manuwa’s appetite for Guillotines have cost him at the higher levels as he has a tendency to give position away.

Should Manuwa play it smart, I give him a decent shot at thwarting Anderson’s attempts in the early going. However, if Manuwa fails to get his game going on the feet, I feel that the takedown threats will eventually wear down the Englishmen’s defense and offense alike.

Regardless of where this fight takes place, I believe it comes down to who can implement their terms of pressure more effectively. Though I initially came into this bout leaning toward Manuwa as his pressure is as technical as it is menacing, he is also much more reliant on needing an exact temperature to implement his game.

In both victory and defeat, Manuwa has typically struggled(at first or altogether) when it comes to establishing his rhythm against moving targets in high-pressure environments. Despite facing an opponent who can be hittable when he elects to trade, I suspect we will see Anderson continue his trend of transitional grappling to trouble the Englishman.

Although Manuwa has struggled to fight frequently at 37-years of age(1 bout in the last 18 months), he has stayed active in what has subsequently been his quickest turnaround in years. Training in Sweden with the likes of Alexander Gustafsson, I expect Manuwa to come in top form for this bout.

That said, the Englishman has typically tired the longer fights go as I am not sure how much of that aspect can be adjusted given his frame and sensibilities. And considering he is scheduled to go five rounds against an opponent who seemingly does not tire, I see Manuwa’s chances of winning this fight decrease dramatically should he not find a finish by the end of the second round.

In a main event that can be too close to call with confidence, I will be siding with the more well-rounded fighter in Anderson as I feel his style is better suited for a five-round affair, and could also be a potential on-paper antithesis for a fighter like Manuwa.

With betting trends moving Anderson toward dog money, I would be lying if I told you I was not taking a shot. Ultimately, I recommend playing this one lightly and enjoying heavily as this matchup will likely tell us a lot about each man moving forward.

Official Pick: Anderson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Manuwa – KO (round 1)

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC London features a fun fight in the welterweight division as Gunnar Nelson takes on Alan Jouban.

With injury precluding his participation in Dublin last November, Gunnar Nelson will make his return in a potential barnburner of a matchup. Standing in the European prospects way is Alan Jouban, an all-action fighter who has steadily been building his game to make a run toward the Top-10 of the rankings.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two technicians who are not afraid to mix things up. Though I feel the on-paper edge should point in the direction of Alan Jouban, there is a lot to like about Gunnar Nelson’s game.

Like many Karate or traditional martial arts based strikers, Gunnar Nelson demonstrates a preternatural understanding of space as he uses his wide stance to shuffle in and out of range. Accentuating Nelson’s stance-switching style is his ability to fire lightning fast crosses down the pipe from both sides. Although Nelson’s punches and placements are effective, he tends to lack in follow-ups and overall output in regards to decisively stamping exchanges.

Despite showing solid head & overall movement, Nelson’s low-handed approach has cost him at the higher levels. In his fights with Rick Story and Zak Cummings, we saw Nelson repeatedly hit by left hands both coming forward and off the counter.

Against a fighter who can counter and come forward well with his left hand, Nelson will have to be especially careful when navigating strike zones with his low-handed standing guard. Potent left hand aside, there is a lot more to Alan Jouban’s game than just that weapon.

A dynamic Muay Thai stylist, Jouban has made his money with excellent combination striking as the working model is not shy when it comes to creating chaos. Wielding weapons at all ranges from cartwheel kicks to shovel hooks, Jouban demonstrates a superb economy of motion in his movements and accuracy within his shot selection.

The tradeoff to Jouban’s aggressive approach is obviously his habitability as he has been dropped, stunned, or stopped in 4 of his last 5-fights. Though Nelson’s punches may not seem super potent, they certainly carry pop as his precision could easily get the job done in regards to dropping Jouban.

That said, I see Jouban being the one who has an advantage the longer this stays standing, which makes me wonder how Nelson will play his hand. Given that Nelson has admittedly struck with fighters like Rick Story and Albert Tumenov for longer than he should have, we could see him get more than he bargains for if he continues his past trends of low-urgency takedown intentions.

Nevertheless, Nelson should have the clear edge on the floor as I suspect the Renzo Gracie black belt will attempt to ground his opposition. Applying a pressure-to-pass type top game, Nelson will seamlessly flow his way to the mount position.

Despite Jouban having an underrated game off of his back, I see him potentially running into trouble when trying to stand. Often opting to turtle out and tripod up to a standing position, we have seen Jouban almost have his back taken in recent bouts while attempting to get up.

Although Jouban also demonstrated intelligent technics to prevent these advances, he will be facing a different level of grappler in Nelson, who is a back-taker that thrives when is opposition turtles as he is particularly crafty from a front-headlock.

As a big fan of Blackhouse’s Kenny Johnson(Bolt Wrestling), I have long waved the flag of the work Jouban has put in with him as I do feel he has improved his wrestling. However, defending takedowns from Nelson(who has also improved his takedown game), will only be part of the problem as I feel Jouban may find himself in the pressure cooker anytime he elects to stand.

In a fight where I am siding with the favorite, I do stress caution as I honestly feel that this matchup is a lot closer than the line leads on. Not only do I think that Jouban is a live dog here, but I also believe that his shot selection lines up nicely to Nelson’s traditional vulnerabilities to left hands. That said, I ultimately feel that Nelson’s grappling threat is too real to ignore, and dangerously close to ‘game-over territory’ as I see him eventually getting it done after a few close scares.

Official Pick: Nelson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Nelson – Submission (round 1)

Summary:

In a potential barnburner in the bantamweight division, Brad Pickett will make his final walk to the cage as he meets Marlon Vera.

A fan favorite for many years due to the countless battles he has put on, Brad Pickett will make his swan song in front of a hometown London crowd.

Looking to spoil the party on short notice is Marlon Vera, a man whom many know is fighting for the welfare of his daughter.

As touching as Vera’s story can be, do not be fooled as the family man outside of the cage quickly turns into a dogged competitor whose savagery is reminiscent to a young Roberto Duran. Typically showing no mercy from the sound of the first bell, Vera demonstrated a more measured side in his last time out.

With a lot of the positive changes for Vera coming by way of Team Oyama, the young fighter honed in his hooks and worked more off of jabs on the feet. Although he may be at an on paper disadvantage in regards to technics, Vera’s sometime-sporadic nature will keep him dangerous throughout the bout as he will mix in explosive flying knees with traditional strikes.

Considering Pickett’s tendency to dip forward, Vera’s strikes up the center such as knees and uppercuts may serve him well. That said, the Ecuadorian fighter still shows to be in the developmental process as I suspect the veteran fighter in Pickett will have a lot to choose from as far as approach goes.

Despite being a willing participant in wars and sporting the crooked nose to show for it, Brad Pickett demonstrates solid fundamental footwork and head movement. Whether Pickett is changing his angles of attack or slipping and returning, he always moves with a purpose when coming forward.

Working well off of a crouch, Pickett will feint takedowns as he comes up with his patent uppercut-hook combinations. Though his dipping tendencies come with the costs mentioned above, I suspect the boxing Brit should have the edge standing, assuming he can find his rhythms and follow Vera’s strike retractions.

Keeping a good sense of things inside the pocket, Pickett’s propensity to aggressively trade has often left him open for counters by nature. And considering that Pickett has been stopped, dropped, or stunned in 4 of his last 5-fights, it is not hard to see where things can start to go south.

Where I feel this scale begin to shift in Pickett’s favor is when looking at potential grappling stanzas as I believe the Englishman’s wrestling will make the difference. One of the more underrated wrestlers to come out the UK(as far MMA is concerned), Pickett wields a solid reactionary double-leg that I see him leaning on when things get hairy.

With the takedown defense statistics being slightly deceiving, Vera has not yet shown to have a strong emphasis for stuffing shots. Often opting to succeed bottom in stanzas through leg scissor attempts or guard pulls, I could see Vera allowing Pickett to work from topside during multiple portions of this fight.

Despite Vera getting most of his submission wins from his back, I still give Pickett the edge on the floor as he usually displays good hand-positioning inside of the guard. However, Pickett is not beyond his mental lulls as we saw Michael MacDonald catch him with a triangle choke from a simple setup.

Should Pickett sleep on the skills of Vera, it could be another upsettingly short night for him. That said, I feel that the Brit can scramble with the best of them as I see a sober Pickett being difficult to pin down.

Pickett also does a good job of getting up intelligently even when he does end up grounded. Whether he is bellying-down with a hard over-hook or carefully using the cage to assist an under-hook get up, you will seldom see Pickett give his neck or expose his back.

With short notice being par for the course for Vera’s career, I do not expect that to play as big of a factor for him as it would others. Regardless, Vera has some clear on-paper hurdles headed into this fight with Pickett as I see the old war dog having one last hurrah in what should be a competitive scrap until the end.

Official Pick: Pickett – Decision

Official Outcome: Vera – TKO (round 3)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card in London is a fantastic featherweight fight as Arnold Allen squares off with Makwan Amirkhani.

One of England’s top prospects, Arnold Allen has done his country proud since entering the UFC as one of the youngest members on the roster. Looking to land on the radar of official rankings, Allen will attempt to derail another rising contender.

Seeking to spoil this homecoming is Makwan Amirkhani, who is also amongst the list of future stars for both the featherweight division and Europe alike. Now training with SBG Ireland, Amirkhani will be aiming to make his arrival known by scoring big on the main stage.

In what seems to be a close fight on paper, I feel that this matchup of developing talents will come down to the potential adjustments/advancements of each man when you consider that this will be the second fight under new coaches for both fighters.

For Amirkhani, this will be his be his first full camp under John Kavanagh as his last outing was a bit of a mixed bag in regards to preparation. Persevering nonetheless, Amirkhani would earn himself a victory over a game Mike Wilkinson.

Though Amirkhani would win, he would do so in his typical(albeit effective) fashion. With John Kavanagh being a coach who incorporates his fighter’s natural tendencies, I do not see much being made in regards to change, especially considering the general outline of this matchup.

For Allen, this will be his second time around with Firas Zahabi as he put in a full camp in Canada for this fight. Although we have seen mixed results when it comes to high-level Tristar transplants, I would argue that Arnold Allen is a positive amongst that equation as he shows signs of an upward trajectory.

With most top-level coaches and camps not being beyond tells and tendencies, the Tristar camp, in my opinion, typically focuses on instilling three core things into their fighters: Jab fundamentals, ring generalship, and wrestling for MMA.

Even though some may argue the returns on those values, we have seen these methods serve as a legitimate connecting piece for many fighter’s games. And despite only having one camp with the Canadian team under his belt, Arnold Allen demonstrated the effectiveness of Zahabi’s stylings as the young Englishman would immediately integrate said principles into his game throughout his last contest.

Working behind a measured jab, Allen would naturally command generalship of the ring as this also helped him avoid the wild exchanges that typically caused trouble for him in the past.

Although Allen will have a clear edge standing in this fight, it is not an advantage that can be heavily depended upon when you consider Amirkhani’s grappling abilities and the commitment he has coupled to it. Similar in spirit to an Aljamain Sterling, Amirkhani will use his strikes to prod and bait exchanges that will take place on his terms.

Keeping a lightning-fast level change in his back pocket, Amirkhani will typically waste little time in shooting in on a double leg takedown. Displaying an ability to chain off to different takedowns when he needs to, it is Amirkhani’s deceptive strength that is most impressive as he only needs to be within hoisting distance of his opponent’s hips to launch them.

That said, Amirkhani can arguably get too comfortable with his abilities at times as he as a propensity to feed his neck into Guillotine threats during these small pockets of adjusting his takedown angles. Despite avoiding that choke thus far in his career, he still needs to be careful as Arnold Allen showed us in his scrap with Allen Omer that he has dangerous choke variations that he uses to counter takedown attempts.

The Englishman’s underrated grappling game aside, this fight ultimately comes down to Arnold Allen’s wrestling and submission defense. Whether you look at his lone loss against Marcin Wrzosek or the spots that have traditionally troubled him in past fights, wrestling pressure has typically been the Achille’s heel for Allen.

With that in mind, my initial lean was toward Amirkhani as I could see his wrestling and grappling superiority being enough to negate the advantages of Allen. But after re-watching the last performance from each fighter, I saw improvements and pathways that slightly shifted my opinion.

Not only did Allen display measurable improvements to his wrestling, but he specifically showed it in his defensive fundamentals from both the clinch and in the open(via reactionary sprawls). Though I still feel the former Finnish wrestler will be able to get Allen down in this fight, I can see the Englishman making Amirkhani work hard and hustle for these positions, which make things interesting considering his last time out.

Despite being able to implement his game with near immediacy against Mike Wilkinson and dominate for two rounds, Amirkhani would start to fade come the beginning of the third. Although this seemed strange initially, Amirkhani has shown similar lapses before that border between mental and physical as the fights wear on.

Using his wrestling to dictate positions to this favor, Amirkhani was able to get away with little adjustments or improvements to his game when competing on the regional circuits. Excelling from positions like the font-headlock, Amirkhani would struggle from others as he would find himself repeatedly(and arguably needlessly) fighting from bottom after failing at heel hook attempts.

Although Amirkhani seems to be past the trappings of leg-lock success, he still showed to succeed positions in his last fight. Whether it was from fatigue or an over-confidence in abilities, Amirkhani could find himself under the gun should he give a fighter like Allen an inch back into the fight.

In fact, if Amirkhani fails to find a finish early on, I suspect his chances to damper on paper. That said, I feel the that Amirkhani will have his best opportunities to close the show when Allen attempts to get back to his feet.

Utilizing my favorite get-up technique for MMA, Allen will typically go with a single-leg to stand when that option is available. However, Allen will also turtle out to stand in more chaotic scrambles as he tripods upright. Although I am also a fan of this style of stand-up, Allen has the propensity to take an extra beat in performing it which has shown to cost him back takes in the past.

Considering that Amirkhani’s submissions are strongest from the front headlock and back mount, Allen will undoubtedly be inside of the danger zone anytime he elects this method to stand.

In a fight that feels like a coin flip on paper, I suggest keeping both of these competitors away from your parlays no matter who you like. Even though Amirkhani could demonstrate grappling superiority, I suspect he may be swimming upstream should he not find the finish as I see Allen fighting his way back onto the scorecards late.

Official Pick: Allen – Decision

Official Outcome: Allen – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Duffy def. Madadi
• Stewart def. Borroso
• Johnson def. Omielanczuk
• Luque def. Edwards
• Diakiese def. Packalen
• Breese def. Bamgbose
• Johns def. Entwistle
• Askham def. Scott
• Lansberg def. Pudilova

Recommended Plays:

Props worth looking at(5Dimes.eu):

-Anderson – Inside the distance: +300 (0.5 Unit)
-Breese – Inside the distance: -145 (1 Unit)

Playable favorites for your parlays:

-Brett Johns
-Tom Breese

Fights to avoid:

-Lansberg vs Pudilova
-Askham vs Scott
-Stewart vs Barroso

For my complete works of past UFC breakdowns and analysis visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned to FloCombat.com