UFC Kansas City: Johnson vs Reis Breakdown

Summary:

The main event for UFC on FOX is a title fight in the flyweight division as Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson takes on Wilson Reis.

Considered by many to be the sports best pound-for-pound tactician, Demetrious Johnson has continued to display dominance amongst his contemporaries. Now, with Anderson Silva’s record for title defenses before him, Johnson will attempt to further cement his name in the history books of MMA.

Seeking to spoil the party is Wilson Reis, the division’s number three ranked contender who has quietly put together wins at 125-pounds. A veteran of the competitive grappling scene, Reis has also made his way around the MMA circuits as well, earning himself a title during his decade-long career.

Starting off on the feet, I suspect the champion will enjoy his biggest on-paper advantages as I see Johnson’s speed and footwork playing his most crucial role for success. Since entering the organization in 2011, we have seen steady but tangible improvements from Johnson.

Demonstrating a preternatural sense of range, Johnson has been able to apply his speed to technics as he finds angles beautifully from both stances. Not only can the champion fight from each side, but he can also shift smoothly between southpaw and orthodox as he attacks in combination.

In looking at past footage of Johnson against southpaw strikers(or fighters briefly assuming the southpaw stance), the champion seems to favor lead right hands as I suspect he will be looking for those here.

Not only is the lead cross a fundamental go-to for the layout of an orthodox versus southpaw matchup, but right hands, in general, have been the common culprit for Wilson Reis as he has been knocked down in 4 of his last 7-fights. Even in the Brazilian’s last two bouts against Hector Sandoval and Yuta Sasaki, we saw Reis hit early and often as his head will sometimes go upright upon retreat.

However, in Reis’ defense, he has shown improvements otherwise as he does a better job of actively moving his head more. And despite not owning a stoppage from strikes on his record, Reis will present some weapons that are worth watching for in this fight.

Like many southpaws, Reis has an affinity for the check right hook as I see that punch serving him well here. Sure, this is a punch that I often pontificate upon and homer for on a personal note, but that does not change the fact that check hooks can be useful against aggressive on-comers who are finding the first beat in exchanges.

Reis also owns a nasty liver kick that could pay potential dividends in this fight. Regardless of a fighter’s chin, toughness or recoverability, liver shots scientifically shut down all. That said, Johnson does a good job of generally avoiding this shot with his angle awareness and footwork as I predict he primarily operates out of the southpaw stance to take this strike away.

Considering that Wilson Reis’ best chances in this fight are arguably on the floor, the battles inside of the clinch will be even more crucial. Unfortunately for Reis, the clinch space is also an arena where the champion holds an on-paper edge.

A flow master and multi-tasker, there is no better examples of Johnson’s brilliance then when watching the evolution of his game inside of the clinch.

After being dropped in his first fight with John Dodson, Johnson intelligently adjusted by taking the fight into the clinch. Using a myriad of grips to trips, or strikes into high-crotch hikes, Johnson has developed quite the taste for breaking his opposition in close. Since then, we have only seen these skills sharpened as we last saw the champion dismember an Olympic wrestler within his comfort of the clinch.

Nevertheless, Johnson will be facing a solid takedown artist who will be looking to kill clinch space and get in close. Favoring the body lock, Reis sticks to his opponents like a sweaty article of clothing, chaining off from singles to doubles as he sucks the hips out from under his opposition.

Even though I also lean toward the champion in regards to a wrestling edge, the statistics show that he is not beyond getting taken down in his fights. However, keeping Johnson down is another issue entirely as he effortlessly creates scrambles and springs up at will.

That said, Johnson’s wrestling sensibilities often have him inherently turtling-out to stand as this method can sometimes cost back takes. Considering that Reis is amongst the division’s best when it comes to finding the back, Johnson will need to be extra diligent in the way in which he elects to stand.

Despite the defensive acumen of Johnson, Reis possesses the top pressure and controls to potentially bank him rounds as I see that being his most realistic path to victory. Though Johnson could just as easily wear him down from topside(especially come the later rounds), Reis is very crafty from the bottom, particularly from his x-guard as he utilizes it well to create scrambles.

With the odds for these type of fights often forcing gamblers to find creative angles of play, I ultimately recommend caution here. Although the favorite is a clear one, Reis has the veteran craft and grappling controls to make this a lot closer than the odds project. But with the Brazilian’s striking defense standing, I suspect the champion will capitalize at range and off the breaks as a stoppage sooner rather than later would not surprise me.

Official Pick: Johnson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Johnson – Submission (round 3)

Summary:

The co-main event in Kansas City is arguably the most competitive fight on the card as “Thug” Rose Namajunas takes on Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson.

Pre and post-TUF 20, there have been a lot of expectations for the young Rose Namajunas. Now, coming off of her first hiccup since the TUF Finals, Namajunas will attempt to get her name back into the title picture with a win here.

Standing in her way is one of the division’s fastest rising contenders, Michelle Waterson. A former atomweight champion in the Invicta organization, Waterson has continued to find success up a weight class as she seeks to cement her status as a contender and enter the Top-5.

A Karate practitioner since the age of ten, Waterson is no stranger to martial arts as her skill set has expanded well beyond her black belt in American-freestyle karate would suggest. Competing in MMA for almost a decade, Waterson has shown slightly different iterations of herself as she has steadily added to her arsenal.

Incorporating more Muay Thai in the second half of her career, Waterson displays an ability to delegate her kicking styles uniquely.

Like many Karate strikers, Waterson works well off of her lead leg as she throws the front and round kicks you would expect from a fighter with that background. However, she will seamlessly switch her kicking style as she often sets up hard Thai kicks from her power side.

When feeling in stride, Waterson will throw a spinning hook or crescent kick as she has a solid sense for intercepting her opposition’s trajectory.

Despite giving a slight edge standing to Waterson due to her level of technics and variety, she will need to show she has an answer for Namajunas’ jab early. Amongst the many of Namajunas’ improvements since coming off TUF 20, the one thing that impresses me the most has been her active and educated left hand.

Although Namajunas is naturally longer than the bulk of her contemporaries, she has steadily shown that she can accentuate her length as she steps into her long jabs concisely. More impressive than her jab accuracy, is the fact that Namajunas does a good job of measuring risk versus reward in regards of whether or not to follow-up with a cross or back out of range.

That said, Namajunas will need to be on point early and often with her output if she means to stop the surmounting momentum of her fearless opponent.

This fight’s temperature should significantly start to rise whenever these two ladies tangle inside of the clinch.

Both fighters are aggressive inside of this space but in different ways. Although Waterson was initially defensive in this space as an inherent striker, her confidence, as well as attack options, have increased as her wrestling has improved.

Now, able to hit hip tosses and trips of her own, Waterson can present different threats to accompany her usual body assaults from the Thai clinch. Considering that Namajunas’ last two opponents found success inside of this space, expect Waterson to explore her strengths of knees to the body and punches off of the breaks.

Nevertheless, the ultimate question inside the clinch(as well as this fight IMO)—is whether or not Waterson will be able to stop the wrestling engagements of Namajunas. As impressive as the improvements to her jab has been, Namajunas has also made major gains in the grappling department as she has taken all five of her UFC opponents down.

Namajunas also displays solid under-hook applications that could thwart Waterson’s get-ups, not to mention a shoulder pressure that she uses to pin opponents or even persuade them to escape in a particular way that exposes their back(seen multiple times in her fight with VanZant).

Regardless of any perceived advantages, I do not see the ever-improving Waterson being easy to ground or keep down.

However, Waterson does have a competitive edge and confidence to her game that can often cause her to overstay her welcome inside of grappling exchanges.

Despite demonstrating the grit and grip-fighting that can make a fighter very hard to submit, Waterson’s gameness has consistently cost her positions in victory and defeat as it is not uncommon to find her fending off submission threats.

Although Waterson has an underrated submission game, especially off of her back that she can threaten with, she may further expose herself should her initial attempts fail.

For example, Waterson has a slick armbar that she often parlays into in a scramble opportunity should she not score a catch.

That said, in doing so, the backward roll involved in getting back to her base off of a failed armbar can often open up the back. And considering that Namajunas has never lost the fight in which she was able to secure a back mount, I expect the scrambles in this fight to be as fun as they are crucial.

In what I feel is the tighest fight on the card competitively, I suggest keeping your money away from this thing as far as betting goes. Since the sample sizes on both sides are deceptive, fight-to-fight improvements can be tricky to forecast.

Ultimately, I will be reluctantly siding with Namajunas as I feel the timeoff to improve and train with larger female fighters will serve her well here. And though I am wishing Waterson well as she is currently firing on all cylinders, we have seen how the UFC promotional machine can effect fighters, for better or worse.

Official Pick: Namajunas – Decision

Official Outcome: Namajunas – Submission (round 2)

Summary:

In an important affair that takes place at middleweight, Ronaldo Souza and Rober Whittaker will attempt to stake their claim amongst the logjam of contenders atop the division.

Long hailed as the unofficial title challenger for quite some time, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza has only lost once since entering the UFC, and that was a close decision to the current contender in waiting, Yoel Romero. Finishing his subsequent opponents since his lone UFC loss, Souza will seek to finish out his contract with all the chips in his favor should he come away victorious once again.

Looking to foil the Brazilian’s plans is Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker, a fighter who I, amongst many, have pronounced the darkhorse of the middleweight division. Initially hitting the UFC scene as a welterweight who came off of winning the TUF Smashes series, the young Whittaker would outgrow his frame as he found instant success up a weight class.

Now, riding a 6-fight winning streak(five of which coming at middleweight), Whittaker will attempt to come through as an underdog yet again as he steps up to the fighter that many have arguably been avoiding for some time.

Starting off on the feet, we essentially have a battle between two pressure-fighters. Though meeting in the middle and slugging it out is not beyond possibility, these matchups typically see the more flexible fighter adapt their approach.

In which case, I see Whittaker being the man more likely playing off of the backfoot given Souza’s threats and relentless history of pressure. Steadily stalking his opposition, Souza will utilize feints to bait opponents into exchanging with him. Once able to get a bite, Souza will often unleash his patent counter cross or change his level for a shot.

Although Whittaker does not drop his lead hand as dramatically(in an effort to get a beat on under-hooks & attack at odd angles), he still tends to keeps his guard a bit low as right-hands have been his common culprit defensively.

Despite Whittaker keeping his hands low, he truly does have impressive reaction times to his head movement and overall techniques. Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Whittaker has developed into one of the most dangerous and unique strikers in the division.

Using a combination of speed, accuracy, and a fluid economy of movement, The Reaper will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many Karate based strikers, Whitaker will show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.

Considering the level-changing takedown threat of his opposition, I suspect Whittaker may be a bit more conservative, at least early on, with his blitzing combinations. Instead, I suspect we may see his aforementioned off-beat deception utilized in a countering effort.

Whittaker, of course, has a competent sense for the counter as he throws a dangerous check hook that I see being effective anytime his opponent comes forward in this fight. Not only is this Whittaker’s most renown punch, but left hooks and or strikes from that side have typically been successful against Souza.

Whether it is conscious or not, some fighters seem to maintain a certain “defensive priority” in regards to what clocks on their radar and what does not. In Souza’s case, I feel that he has an excellent read on right hands and or strikes from an opponent’s power side, but does not seem to read or prioritize checks and counter strikes as efficiently.

Couple that with the fact that Souza’s striking defense is heavily reliant on head movement(a skill that often goes first with age), and we could be looking at a recipe for disaster anytime the Brazilian plants inside the pocket to land follow-up shots, a habit he has shown in space.

Potential striking advantages aside, the real skills disparity in this fight takes place on the floor, a realm where Ronaldo Souza rules with an iron fist.

Not all Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champions are created equal in MMA, and there is no better example of that than arguably Jacare. Even when watching him grapple with a Gi on, you could easily see why Souza would make the early plunge into the fight scene.

A natural when it came to technics, it was the wrestling the and athleticism of Souza that often made him stand out amongst his contemporaries. Now, over a decade later, you almost forget the Souza ever wore the Gi as his No-Gi grappling has been an art in itself to watch, especially the way in which he translated it into MMA.

Effortless floating to and from his favored base of operations that is half-guard, Souza will exercise his options like a kid in a candy store. Whether he is using a Kimura to advance to side control or a head & arm choke to cut to mount, Whittaker will likely be in quicksand should he find himself this deep into Souza’s game.

I apologize if I come off as discounting the ground game of Whittaker as I am sure he has continued to improve his grappling, but this fight depends on him stopping Souza earlier in the route––which brings us to the key junction of this fight: the clinch.

Though Souza has a reactive shot in his toolkit, the Brazilian favors attempts along the fence as 90% of his shots happen whenever his opponent back steps in between the inner-black Octagon lines and cage. And with his initial shot not usually finding success, it is the adjustments of Souza against the fence that typically earns him the takedown, which makes the way in which Whittaker defends all the more important.

For example, when fighters are reliant on more traditional defenses such as sprawls or battles for under-hooks, they typically lose to Souza(unless they’re a freak wrestler) as these defenses involve a commitment to contact, which in turn can lead to more grappling.

Considering that Whittaker does not rely on these traditional defensive tropes, I feel that The Reaper’s takedown defense is even more promising than the listed 93% success rate would suggest.

Aside from the fact that his footwork makes it difficult for his opponents to set up their shots, Whittaker also shows the small technical intricacies that make him difficult to ground or hold down when grasped.

Working diligently on his wrestling over the past few years, we have seen Whittaker show the small signs of improvements a young fighter should be making from fight-to-fight.

Already possessing a strong base and balance, Whittaker’s hip and grip awareness have also improved. Not only has Whittaker shown the ability to defend shots while hopping on one leg, but he also emphasizes a wrestling fundamentals that are often overlooked: grip & hip awareness.

Not only does Whittaker utilize grip breaks and wrist controls, but he also is disciplined about conssitently circling out to his opponent’s weak side, which in turn dissuades re-shots and takedown chain adjustments.

What is more impressive, is Whittaker’s ability to go from thwarting takedown attempts to striking off of the breaks. Even against an aggressive wrestler like Derek Brunson, Whittaker was able to circle effortlessly off the fence and come right back with an uppercut as I feel that striking in these small spaces will potentially pay off big against Souza.

Even though Souza has the skills to stop Whittaker standing, his best chances will likely be early on in the bout. Due to Whittaker’s reliance on range-finding and rhythm, he is often more hittable in the early going as he is still trying to establish his distance.

That said, Souza’s key to a victory here will ultimately rely on his ability to get this fight to the floor. As someone who initially picked him to win this fight, I would not be surprised to see Souza submit Whittaker as he is the deserved favorite here.

However, in looking at Souza’s relevant history, I do not feel he has faced many fighters who can counter as the ones he has faced were also the ones who have beat him. And though part of me is rooting for Souza as he is the deserved contender to the crown, Whittaker may have the precise components to spoil his storyline.

Official Pick: Whittaker – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Whittaker – TKO (round 2)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX is a fun featherweight fight as Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens takes on Renato “Moicano” Carneiro.

A fan favorite for his aggressive stylings, Jeremy Stephens will certainly be carrying a veteran status into this matchup as he greets a rising Brazilian talent.

Despite only having one fight in the last sixteen months, Renato Moicano has garnered a quiet excitement from hardcore fans as the Brazilian prospect shows some promise.

Steadily developing an aggressive Muay Thai arsenal, Moicano will consistently stalk his opposition as he looks to set up hard kicks that he variates from both sides. Putting together his punches when feeling in stride, the Brazilian does a particularly good job of striking his way in and out of the pocket with accurate hooks.

Should Moicano utilize his hooks in the form of checks, we could see him catch Stephens by surprise as we saw this technique pay dividends for Yves Edwards in their bout.

Never shy to exchange, Stephens’ propensity to brawl has traditionally left him open for counters. That said, we have seen technical improvements in Stephens’ game since moving to Alliance MMA.

Incorporating feints and setups, Stephens has added to the effectiveness of his pressuring approach. Incorporating more kicks into his repertoire, Stephens will sneak in dangerous head kicks in between leg assaults and punch combinations.

Although Moicano shows the confidence and durability to stand with Stephens, he may get more than he bargains for should he fall into a striking war and rhythm with the American.

I believe that Moicano’s best chances at victory will involve taking this fight to the floor. However, I am not sure the Brazilian has yet developed the wrestling chops to do so. Despite demonstrating his improvements in takedown defense and scrambles in his last time out, Moicano will likely need a lot more if he intends on grounding Stephens.

One of the more underrated wrestlers in the division, Stephens has worked diligently on his defense in later stages of his career as we have seen him successfully thwart off solid takedown artists.

Nevertheless, Should Stephens get taken down, he will be at his highest risk while transitioning back to his feet. Often turtling-out to stand, Stephens, runs the risk of getting his back taken by a proficient scrambler.

Not only is taking the back of specialty of Moicano(as he does so with instantaneous opportunism), but all of the Brazilian’s wins come by way of rear-naked-choke, making these small exchanges all the more crucial.

That said, Stephens is no slouch in defending submissions as we saw him successfully thwart the attempts of specialist, Charles Oliveira for three rounds. Demonstrating intelligent grip fighting, a sober Stephens may prove difficult to catch(unless Moicano finds a way to compromise him first).

Ultimately, I agree with oddsmakers in making Stephens the favorite here. Although Moicano has the intangibles of skill and fight-to-fight improvements to score an upset, this more advanced version of Jeremy Stephens does not appear to be losing any steam as I see the veteran’s pressure banking scorecards and possibly even earning him a late finish.

Official Pick: Stephens – Decision

Official Outcome: Moicano – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Nelson def. Volkov (*stated bias: Scouted for Nelson)
• Duquesnoy def. Williams
• Magomedov def. Green
• Elliott def. Smolka
• Sterling def. Mendes
• Clark def. Collier
• Sanchez def. Smith
• Cummings def. Coy
• Evans-Smith def. Vieira

Recommended Plays:

Props worth looking at(5Dimes.eu):

-Demetrious Johnson “ITD” +162 (1 Unit)
-Whittaker “by KO” +312 (0.5 Unit)
-Whittaker/Souza “Fight DNGTD” -245 (2 Units)

Playable favorites for your parlays:

-Rashid Magomedov
-Tom Duquesnoy
-Jeremy Stephens

Fights to avoid:

-Sterling vs Mendes
-Namajunas vs Waterson
-Sanchez vs Smith

For the complete analysis of future & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com