UFC Fight Night 76: Poirier vs Duffy

Summary:

For Dublin’s main course of the evening, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier meets “Irish” Joe Duffy. Before starting off into the skill set of Joseph Duffy, it’s important to note that his standing game is largely timing & movement based. On initial view of his standing guard, Joe’s low hands don’t suggest a “Good” risk management rating. However as you watch film on Duffy, you’ll begin to see his “robot-like” systematic & technical approach. Though Joe’s excellent timing ties in his countering off head movement & deceptive speed changes, it’s his footing that actually supports/dictates his game. Footwork & timing will be crucial against a Southpaw like Dustin, luckily Joe has faced many Southpaws in his career. In watching said film, Duffy’s footwork is like literal clockwork. He consistently looks to set  attack angles or achieve “the outside foot position” that Orthodox/Southpaw fighters battle for. From here, he’ll prod/feint his way in drawing out counters or defensive weaknesses.

Both Joe & Dustin’s footwork takes place in what I refer to as “engaged range”(not hanging back to counter nor consistently blitzing forward). When fighting in this range a technical skill set is a must, however it’s often the faster/more aggressive man who dictates. Both men show to be technical & athletic but I give the speed advantage to Duffy(especially in the striking dept). That said, Dustin Poirier has shown more fight to fight improvements in every area since moving back up to Lightweight. At Featherweight it was clear he was diminished by weight cutting , as we saw a talented & aggressive fighter struggling with what his body could output/absorb. Despite being hurt and or dropped in 6 of his last 10 fights, Dustin’s showed to take shots much better at this weight.

I expect a physically prepared & technically improved Poirier, and with that in mind, I chose to focus on his core tendencies for my analysis. Defensively, Dustin will often revert to a “shell defense” which will traditionally open up body shots & uppercuts. Though Duffy utilized uppercuts more in his Boxing career, he has shown a proven MMA arsenal of body attacks. For me however, Dustin’s biggest defensive liability in this fight is his tendency to drop his right hand on entries/pocket exchanges. This in particular opens him up to a left hook, which just so happen to be Joe’s most accurate & well timed punch. Duffy consistently through the contest will look to time opponents on their way in, or make them pay on his/their way out of the exchanges. That all being noted, a similar truth can be told from the other side.

Though Duffy possesses good head movement & rolls well with punches, he also will keep a low lead hand/guard. Despite keeping his chin tucked to his shoulders, Duffy is still open for right hooks. As fate would have it, Dustin carries an aggressive & accurate right hook. When feeling in stride, Poirier will tac on/often fire nice straight left in recent fights(attributed to his boxing skill work in which he’s recently done plenty). This all being said, I feel Dustin’s best chances striking will be through kicks. Duffy has shown a susceptibility to leg kicks given his stance, and Dustin can exploit this/create openings should he choose.  Poirier’s best kick is his left body kick, and could be doubly effective if he mixes in the left high kick. Though Duffy has shown to be defensively sound, he leans heavy to the right side of his guard. You can effectively block kicks from this style, but we’ve also seen guys lean low to block a body kick and instead receive a headshot(Nogueira vs Herring 3).

If Dustin can’t shift the momentum standing, I suspect he’ll follow his natural suit of forward cage attack pressure.  From here, expect Dustin to mix dirty boxing with TD attempts in effort to test Duffy’s ground/neutralize him standing at the very least. Duffy however is used to this approach in past fights, and has shown good cage & TD defense. Given the styles & mat times in both men’s career, I don’t expect long grappling stalemates . On the ground both men are multi-talented submission artists,  with the key difference I see here being their scrambling ability. Dustin primarily looks to sweep or transition technically, where as Joe creates & capitalizes on scrambles, where he’s shown to sharp shoot subs in transition. Poirier has shown to give his back in scrambles & has even lost rounds to it in the past.

Dustin has also shown susceptible in past fights to Triangle Chokes(though never officially caught). This is due to his general posture & hand fighting(or lack of) when on top. This could be something to look for given it’s Duffy’s favorite submission(6 finishes Pro & Am career). This fight is so fun on paper that it felt like a crime to try and breakdown. But after doing so I gotta side with Joe Duffy’s technical consistency to get it done inside the distance. I suspect he’ll be one the more if not most expensive Fantasy picks on the card. That said, he’s also a 5 round main event fighter with a 93% finish rate.

Official Pick: Duffy – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Bout scratched due to injury.

Summary:
In the evenings newly minted “Main Event” of the evening, Patrick Holohan welcomes Louis Smolka to Ireland. However this won’t be Smolka’s first time on enemy turf as he’s played crowd spoiler in previous UFC victories. At first glance, these two fighters have many similarities. They both are 5’9″ Flyweights who keep their hands low & head high. With an equal taste for risk in their offense(Flying knees/Kicking varieties) and defensive tendencies(traditionally taking damage), this can be difficult to dissect. As you begin to study Holohan, his sporadic footwork & attack immediately standout. This being an overall positive in that it forces opponents to play “catch up” or guess what’s next. Though Smolka’s consistent pacing & composure should negate this, he will have to mind the body attacks Paddy presents here.

Whether defensively slipping & ripping to body, or his offensive kicking game, Paddy will throw off explosive but shuffling movements. It’s in these unique entries that Holohan shows consistent vulnerability. Though the right cross is also Smolka’s most susceptible punch, Holohan actually keeps an even lower guard with far less head movement. Not only do I feel he’s more defensively liable here, he is also out gunned in the counter to this equation.. which is, who here posses the better right to capitalize on said vulnerabilities? Despite showing a nice kicking variety, Smolka leans heavily on his crisp volume boxing. While showing good dictation with his left jab/hooks, it’s his accurate counter right hand that is his best punch/most potent factor here.

Paddy’s best chance standing will be using body/low kicks to set up his uppercut(which served him well last time in Ireland). In exchanges, Smolka has had a bad habit of shelling with his head leaned forward(and hanging out longer than need be). Couple this with his with his shown low kick liabilities, Holohan can hurt/stiffle Louis here. I suspect Paddy will use his entires(successful or not) to push into clinch/cage space. Holohan shows improved Cage TD’s/Wrestling, which is the exact part of Smolka’s game he’s shown to lack presence in. Paired with a solid positional top game, Paddy can potentially steal momentum/rounds should he be effective.

Once this fight hits the mat(and it will) both men are technical scrappers. The main(and most crucial) differences here bing their bottom/scramble game. On bottom/in bad spots, Smolka always keeps composure as he actively looks to sweep or stand. He is very good at creating & capitalizing on scrambles to get top or back positions. Holohan uses his frame well to support his crafty ground creativity. But when on bottom he’ll use it primarily to lock his opponents up as apposed to effectively attack. In fact, it’s when he attacks that he often makes openings for his opposition. In both his victories & defeats Holohan has been passed, mounted, controlled, and pounded for time periods.

Despite being urgent & active in scrambles, Paddy usually finds himself a hair behind(or even his back taken) in these exchanges. I’m a big believer that scrambles win fights(especially in the Flyweight Division) and for that reason I have to slighty side with Smolka to get it done here. I  wouldn’t suggest leaning heavy on either man, and given their resiliencies, I’m not counting on anyone quitting.

Official Pick: Smolka – Decision

Official Outcome: Smolka -RNC – Rd. 2

Summary:

In this next bout, Reza Madadi returns from two plus years out of action to meet Norman Parke in his backyard. Freestyle wrestler and one of Sweden’s top MMA prospects, Madadi was on his way up the Lightweight ladder. But after being convicted for involvement in a burglary, he had to take time away from the sport. Immediately since his release he jumped right back into high intensity training at All-Stars Gym. Though I’m sure that Reza is working very hard, nor is he having to overcome injury per say, “Ring Rust” is still a statistically real factor. Especially when facing a a young active contender in home/hostile territory. With said intangibles, we’ll have to base Reza’s analysis off his core strengths/tendencies, and the assumption he’ll try and pick up near where he left off.

On the feet, Madadi keeps a basic variety of Boxing attacks. Possessing a solid long jab, he’ll use this to set up hooks & uppercuts. The uppercuts, or even hooks if thrown to the body, would serve him well given Norman’s “high shell defense”. I would also recommend kicks as both men show vulnerabilities here, though oddly enough neither man favors these attacks. When Norman’s knees are healthy, he possesses a nice left power kick, though I doubt he’ll lean on that given Reza actively looks for “kick catch” TD counters. This fight for me comes down to who can establish/defend the take downs.

Take down defense percentages can be deceiving here being that Reza hasn’t really been tested in his UFC career, where as Parkes been consistently tested. Madadi prefers a double leg take down off strikes, where he’ll use solid corner cutting/”Barzegar” finishes. But since Norman is a Southpaw this will not be directly available. Against previous Southpaws, Reza’s shown slightly awkward entries(in which he already leads with his head) and has paid for it with counters that hurt/dropped him. This will be something to look for given Norman’s accurate left cross counter. However, once Madadi does establish a clinch he has shown a good single-leg variety, which I feel he’ll need to get Norman down.

However, he’ll have his work cut out for him given Parke’s good balance, core strength, and under-hook awareness. Should he get Parke down, I see him struggling(like others have) to advance/keep him there. Reza shows good hand fighting & GNP from inside the guard, but when he passes/transitions from here he tends to allow an “empty hip space”. This traditionally opens up guard retentions/get ups, and if you have decent “Butterfly Guard” you can really reek havoc here. Where as if Norman is able to get on top, we may see more opportunities for GNP given his style. Parke possesses some nasty elbows and could use them here to create openings once on top.

Reza, when forced to scramble, will habitually turtle up like a lot of wrestlers. But choosing to regather himself/stall from here could cost him the round, or even the fight given Norman’s active back hunting(Not to mention his 6 RNC finishes). Ultimately, I see this fight being an overall close affair, with sloppy exchanges to stalemates on the feet. I can see Parke hurting Madadi standing, but with Reza’s recoverability to Parkes conservative style pressure, I don’t see a finish. Outside of Reza stunning Parke with an uppercut and forcing a bad shot into a Guillotine.. This is Parke’s fight to lose. Given both men’s durability/recoverability and said intangibles.. I’d avoid this one.

Official Pick: Parke – Decision

Official Outcome: Parke – Decision

Summary:
This next bout is one of the more stylistically fun match ups on the card. Undefeated prospects Nicolas Dalby and Darren Till meet for their toughest tests to date. Both men are striking specialists with distinctly different styles. Darren, a Muay Thai specialist, shows to stalk opponents using a measured “Thai Marching” aggression always keeping kicks chambered. Where as Dalby, a more Karate based fighter, uses intelligent footwork to launch crisp boxing & deceptive kicks. As they both posses brilliant weapons, it’s the movement that will dictate the standing momentum. Darren throws an accurate inside leg kick and will have to lean on it in this match up.

Dalby’s game is heavily reliant on his movement, and this kick could effectively hamper that. Till also wields a strong left body kick he likes to mix in. The most dangerous strike I see Till threatening with, is his offensive/counter left hand. He has the accuracy to catch Dalby coming in, or in pocket exchanges where Dalby has shown vulnerabilities to left hands. Ultimately, I feel Dalby’s movement will stack the deck in his favor of preventing Darren from hitting his mark.

Using consistent lateral movement & angles, I suspect Nicolas will move to/attack from Darren’s right side. This being his weak side given his prodominantly one sided single attacks. Though possessing excellent kicks of his own, I believe Dalby’s punches will be more effective in these exchanges. Darren tends to fight tall with his head high, this particularly opening up the right hand. It also opens up Tills availability for power double-leg TD’s, the main TD choice for Dalby. Though not the best at cutting his corners(TD finishes), he does keep an emphasis on a low hip body lock attacks(crucial for taking down tall well based opposition).

From here, Dalby doesn’t show anything to threaten a finish per say, but this can steal rounds and stifle Till’s stand up(given looming TD threats). This tactic in particular is something Dalby consistently & intelligently pursues. However, if he fails here/Darren can press Dalby to the cage, it could be trouble for the Dane. Till has good clinch knees and trips TD’s from here he could use to get on top. Till shows a competent top game and deadly in close elbows as well. Given the small cage at play, Darren’s best chance is to use his kicks to help get off the cage & force these exchanges.

That said, with both mens durability/chin, I’m not sure I see a finish materializing. Neither man has been thoroughly tested on their back, which could mean whomever gets on top, could win the round and answer some questions about the other man. I see Dalby’s movement and volume getting it done on the feet, with his TD pressure edging out the cards. Ultimately I feel this will be a close hard fought decision for both men.

Official Pick: Dalby – Decision

Official Outcome: Majority Draw

Summary:

With the biggest odds disparity on the card(according to Vegas) Steven “Stevie” Ray meets Mickael “Ragnar” Lebout. With being able to judge these types of matches confidently based on statistics, I try extra hard to make sure the “in fight logistics” match up. That being said, I have to quite agree with odds on this one. The intangible factors here is that Lebout is still young in his MMA career, and he shows consistent fight to fight improvements. Mickael’s best chance in this fight is keeping it a striking affair.

On the feet, he shows good footwork that he’ll have to use to keep range. From here, he shows an accurate left hook with variating right hand attacks. Given Ray’s Southpaw stylings & left hook availability, this could pay dividends. That coin however, bares an equal flip as “Stevie Ray” bares an equally(if not more) accurate left straight-right hook combo from this stance. Factor in his kick pressure & stopping power, this could also prove a long night standing.

“Ragnar” posses some solid kicks as well, mainly his left switch kick. The availability of that kick however being limited(against a Southpaw), and with leg kicks perhaps invitting TD entries, Lebout may stick to punches here. Whether using cage pressure or his improved TD entry game, I suspect Stevie will get this to the ground. Despite not having a traditional ground base, Lebout shows a really well rounded “in fight IQ”. His lack of a fundamental or technical game however, shows to cost him positions and rounds.  Especially when facing an opponent like Ray, who shows a smothering top game using shoulder pressure & GNP to pass/open up finishes.

Lebout is very tough and yet to be stopped so I won’t make any garuantees there. Stylistically I see Stevie Ray being able to dictate this fight(ground fighting in particular) without serious threat. Look for Ray to showcase maturity in this match, but as always be careful with putting weight into heavy favorites.

Official Pick: Stevie Ray – Decision

Official Outcome: Ray – Decision

Summary:

Another potential fight of the night match up as Neil Seery meets Jon Delos Reyes. Don’t let the age fool you(36 being advanced for a Flyweight) because Neil Seery still shows the timing, pace, and will to compete/beat some of the division best. The oddsmakers also believe this in making him a respective slight favorite over Reyes. However young in his career, Jon shows fight to fight improvements and is hard to put a value on. Especially when you consider the competition level of his 1st two UFC fights, and the manner in which they unfolded.

Aside from the intangible factor of Jon’s skill development, the second biggest intangible is the Irish crowd. Not only can they influence judges on fight outcomes, but also influence the intensity & anxiety of a first round. Especially when you have a fighter in Delos Reyes who is an already aggressive starter. In viewing footage of Jon, he shows to come out fast looking to establish  a “Boxing range” and put hands on his opposition. In particularly, he posses an accurate left hook and dangerous right hand.

Though showing the power to knockdown opponents, he also has trips/TD’s when in clinch range. Defensively however, he tends to lower his hands on entries, especially when exiting range. Given that Seery is an excellent counter puncher, this is where Jon will be most vulnerable. Though Neil keeps an overall defensive discipline, he will slighter lower his right shoulder/standing guard in exchanges. This opening him up to a left hook as well, both men will have to be aware of this.

As previously stated, I believe the first round will be a heated affair, where I feel Delos Reyes will be the more dangerous man. That being said, should Seery weather the storm/avoid taking too much damage early, he should able to dictate the standing pace. If his accurate left hook-right hand follow up doesn’t open a finish, it’s looming threat & stance switching may prove troublesome to Jon. I believe Delos Reyes’s best chance in this fight is to use the small cage to his advantage and force ground exchanges.

Despite an improved submission game, Jon shows hard and effective ground & pound. Though Neil traditionally has shown good defense on the ground, he does so by utilizing a strong over-hook from bottom(a clear go to position). But I don’t suspect that will be easily available with Jon’s style inside the guard. Using good hip positioning & pressure, Reyes keeps a high posture to deliver strikes. The most important factor on the ground for me(especially at Flyweight) is the scramble game.

This particular area has shown to be(especially in his last fight) one of the few areas Neil struggles in. This is crucial considering the scramble/transition game is where Delos Reyes is strongest. Neil is physically tough and technically tight defensively, so a finish is hard to see. Unless Jon can hurt tim, his best chances of catching a sober Seery will be in the scramble. Regardless, I see this a very close and hard fought contest. I really like Delos Reyes style and believe he has more than what it takes to upset. But unbiasedly, I believe Seery will edge him out technically if not on the cards.

Official Pick: Seery – Decision

Official Outcome: Seery – Guillotine – Rd. 2

Summary:

In this Women’s Straw-weight bout Aisling Daly will face Ericka Almeida. Ericka who is a very experienced BJJ competitor, is looking the get her first UFC victory. Successful against largely low-level opposition, she struggled in her UFC debut with tougher competition. Traditionally, Almeida will steadily stalk, using good lead right hand entries to clinch. From here, she strongly favors trips though is often overpowered/reversed to her back. Defensively, she offers little resistance with a low loose guard.

Though showing to be physically durable and mentally tough, she often comes straight forward into attacks. This could prove an active playground for Daly should she have not made improvements to her game here. Despite Aisling showing similar defensive liabilities, she also offers more head & feet movement. This coupled with her stronger striking variety should grant her dictation over this part of the fight. If Daly chooses to exercise her cage pressure TD’s, Almeida’s shown little resistance or fundamentals in TD defense.

Ericka is competent in transitions, and though largely successful at the low-level, Daly will still need to stay defensively minded. Almeida’s ground experience outside of MMA hasn’t shown to exactly transition smoothly. Mainly her confidence in guard, with a reluctance to get off bottom. As we saw in her last bout against Carneiro, once losing the positional battle, she succeeded bottom giving away rounds. This is the main aspect of Ericka’s game that hopefully she addressed.

If not, she’ll be subject to the positional pressure fighting of Daly. Aisling will more than likely attempt to strike-pass her way to a mount, and look for her traditional arm-bar finishes. Should she fail to finish, I still see her being able to weather the Brazilian storm to victory. However, when dealing with female matches where one or more fighters are yet established, I generally avoid/caution plays heavily.

Official Pick: Daly – Decision

Official Outcome: Daly – Decision

Summary:

In this European Middleweight clash, Scott Askham meets Krzysztof Jotko. In breaking down this match, both fighters have similarities in their standing to overall game. Both are Southpaw counter strikers who mainly direct exchanges to cage/clinch stanzas. As far as intangible factors go, we just got our first in “Southpaw vs. Southpaw”. As much complaints Southpaws garner from the “gen pop” of strikers, its actually Southpaws who generally dislike facing other Southpaws more. It makes sense when you think about it, with an overall lack of left handed looks, most Southpaws develop a striking game around orthodox styles.

Both men lack footage or recent/relevant match ups against Southpaws, so determining if one man will have an advantage is difficult. Generally you can expect two types of fights in a Southpaw clash. One being, a technically conservative fight for fear of vulnerability. Or two, the anxiety & insecurity translates to an overly aggressive affair. Given that both men are counter fighters with spurts of inactivity, don’t count on a first round finish.

More specifically on the feet, Jotko uses heavy movement to set up his strikes & counters. Though showing good timing with slick elbows, coupled with a decent cage clinch himself, it’s he who is often pressed to the cage. With this in mind, he is going to make adjustments being in the smaller Octagon. Askham is a tall & long fighter, who despite possessing good counters of his own, shows a solid cage & clinch striking game.

Scott also wields a dangerous variety of kicks(primarily left body kicks) which can help corral Jotko into operating space. Scott has also put more emphasis on this TD/top game, where he shows some nasty elbows inside the guard. Though showing some TD availability to long fighters(common opponent Cedenblad), I believe Jotko has the better TD defense & scrambling ability. Jotko’s best chance at winning this fight is to be aggressive. He’ll need to use his speed & athletic advantage to close the distance and reverse the cage clinch game on Askham.

In this process, Scott traditionally leaves his head high and open for overhands(Sturve vs Nelson). Not to mention, Askham also shows difficulty defending his hips, which could open up TD’s and steal rounds for Jotko. This fight comes down to who can establish the clinch game, and from the footage I’ve seen, I slightly lean toward Askham here. His solid head position & discipline should pay dividends, with his accurate knees being something to keep an eye on. Overall this should be a close contest, with small promise of high output scoring.

Official Pick: Askham – Decision

Official Outcome: Jotko – Split Decision

Summary:

In this next contest, Cathal Pendred looks to get back on track against the rising Tom Breese. Tom is a now Tristar trained prospect coming out of the UK. A fight finisher from his Amateur to Pro career, Breese leans heavily on his grappling base. On the feet, Tom shows crisp boxing with a long jab and accurate left cross. These are not only good weapons for his length & frame, but should also prove effective against Cathal’s wide open entries.

Pendred, consistently enters space with his hands/guard low as his head stays high throughout exchanges. This means that despite his durability and constant movement, he gets hit way more than he should. Cathay offers deceptively heavy shots, but with his speed & single shot approach, he’s struggled to be effective in the UFC. Although Breese has shown improved kicks(primarily left power kicks), I believe Pendred is still the more diverse kicker, and could use that to stifle action.

Though kicks can also help Tom slow the pace of Pendred, it’s his right hand he should focus on. As a Southpaw who lacks hooks, a right/check hook would serve him well. Cathal Pendred has been hit, hurt, and dropped by right hands in 5 of his last 5 fights. Cathal’s best chances in this fight is employing his cage clinch pressure game. Grinding in this range can neutralize standing & ground threats. This is not only the strongest part of Cathals game, but Tom’s most vulnerable area we’ve seen from him.

Breese loves utilizing over-hooks(whizzers) in which he’ll use solid knees to set up trips/tosses.  This coupled, with his length/height, has often showed to cost him body lock clinches/TD’s. However, should Cathal take Tom down, it won’t be a picnic. Even when out wrestled, Tom will maintain said over-hooks and parlays it into ground offense. Immediately he’ll angle off his hips looking to attack/sweep using his excellent leg dexterity. In fact, his overall leg/attack coordination is amazing for such a large & long grappler.

As if superior size, strength, and technique aren’t enough, it’s his timing that brings his skills together. Without sacrificing technique, Tom shows creative and sharp approaches to hit submissions in transition. Given Pendred’s strength, heart, and Grappling competency, he won’t go easy into the night. I do however, believe that the answers to this fight lay in the ground exchanges. . This is where I see “the Octopus”sucking Pendred in and capitalizing where his past opponents couldn’t.

Official Pick: Breese – inside the distance

Official Outcome: Breese – TKO – rd. 2

Summary:

In this next Featherweight clash, Robert Whiteford gets a quick turn-around against the returning Darren Elkins. Given their styles, and how Whiteford looked early in his UFC career, it’s easy to see why Elkins is favored here. Playing the traditional spoiler, Darren leans on his durability to force wars of attrition. That said, he’s struggled in recent fights winning 2 of his last 5. Not to mention, he’s been hurt and or dropped in 4 of his last 5 outings. One could speculate this is due to his years of tough competition, and the manner in which he fought.

Win or lose, I believe this fight will tell us a lot about where Elkins is at in his career. Despite his counterpart Whiteford being a year older, he’s younger in MMA, and I don’t feel he’s quite reached his ceiling. That said, this fight should also tell us a lot about Rob’s potential. I feel Whiteford’s best chances in this fight is on the feet, where he should be stylistically superior. Elkins has put a lot of work on his striking through the years, primarily in Boxing.

Darren, traditionally pressures forward  as he favors “1-2-1″(jab, cross, jab) entry combinations. Though showing consistent straight punches, this also makes him predictable. This could be troublesome when facing an opponent like Rob, who is a timing based counter puncher with better footwork. Darren is most vulnerable when throwing his right hand on entries. His head, like clockwork will lean and expose forward, as his left hand/shoulder drops. This opens up availabilities for right hooks & uppercuts, which just so happen to be Whitefords most active & effective punches.

Though Rob shows good lateral movement, and Darren Primarily fights in straight lines, the small cage should assist Elkins in corralling the Scotsman. I believe Darren’s best chances are obvious choices here; get Rob to the cage, take him down, and wear I’m out. With that said, Elkins effectiveness in those areas have shown a steady decline (20% TD success in last 10 fights). Not to mention his own shown TD vulnerabilities, especially in his aggressive off balance blitzes.

Whiteford has well timed double legs along with a good offensive & defensive clinch game. Though showing competent defense, it may serve Rob better to initiate TD’s of his own.This could could take Darren out of his game, or at the very least steal a round/catch a breather. Should he fail to stifle Darrens attacks, the pace & pressure will make it a long night for Rob. As much as I could see that very scenario, I feel Scotland scores the upset here.

Official Pick: Whiteford – Decision

Official Outcome: Elkins – Decision

Summary:

In this Middleweight matchup, Bubba Bush returns against Garreth Mclellan. Both men come from competitive athletic backgrounds, and that physically translates to their styles. Particularly Bubba Bush, a former Wrestler, wastes little time blitzing into clinch/cage space. He does however, show little striking variety and ground defense. Especially on his entries, where he commits power but keeps his head upright and open. This was exposed in his last fight, and this is also Garreth’s best chances to win this fight.

Mclellan, who’s a former Rugby player & Karate Champion, fights from a Southpaw stance. From here, he posses a solid left body kick, and well timed counters(particularly off his lead hand). This window of catching Bubba coming in will be even smaller considering the Octagon size at play. This should force more in-close clinch fighting where Bubba is shown to be more effective. Garreth has shown vulnerabilities in his TD defense, especially in his last fight(where he was taken down by a Welterweight at will).

I see Bubba’s inside to outside clinch trips playing a role here. Garreth is a Physically tough individual who won’t make it easy, but I don’t see this fight going the distance if Bubba gets on top early. Despite the factors of both mens finishing abilities, there are too many intangibles for me lean heavy on either man(mainly Bush’s inactivity/state he comes into this fight). I do however think Bubba gets it done, but I would be careful in playing this one.

Official Pick: Bush – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Mclellan – TKO – Rd. 3