Summary:
The first main event for UFC Fight Week is a big one as Rafael Dos Anjos defends his title against Eddie Alvarez. With his only loss in the last five years coming at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dos Anjos has steadily climbed his way to the top of the division. Looking especially good as of late, Dos Anjos will attempt to cement his supremacy amongst the historically most stacked division in MMA. Once again embracing the underdog status is Eddie Alvarez, as the former Bellator champion looks to capture the one title that has eluded him thus far in his career.

If you are not already condemning me for my pick, let me first state that I came into this match up leaning heavily toward Dos Anjos as I feel he is the justified favorite. However, after diving into the history of each man, I found some potential flags that lead me to believe this is closer to a “pick’em” fight as I feel the line is off here. Although I have no problem conceding to the narrative that Dos Anjos can get this done decisively, I feel that writing off a fighter like Alvarez’s chances in this matchup could be a dangerous thing to do. Regardless of who you like in this fight, I will attempt to provide some counterpoints worth considering as I explain why I am siding with the underdog.

It is easy to see why the betting lines and narratives seem slanted in this matchup given our propensity for short-term memory and surface level value in MMA. You have one fighter in Rafael Dos Anjos, who minus one hiccup, has looked like nothing short of a wrecking machine in the last few years. That said, one could argue that many of his recent victories also came over stylistically favorable matchups mixed with odd performances by his opposition(Diaz, Cerrone, & Pettis). Then you have another fighter in Eddie Alvarez, who after a long-awaited contract dispute made his way into the UFC with deceivingly unimpressive performances. But again, you could argue that this was due to tough matchups accompanied with circumstantial intangibles(From the layoff to debut against Cowboy, to the altitude & altered vision against Melendez).

I do not mean to insinuate nor take anything away from the fighters or fights mentioned above, but I do feel it is an important reminder of how looks can be deceiving. The fight game does not care about betting favorites or hype, as we have all been confounded by the results of this sport time-and-time again. That said, I will be breaking down this matchup the same way I do the rest, by using in-cage evidence to forecast how these styles may collide.

In the striking department, there is a lot to like from the champion Rafael Dos Anjos. Under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, we have seen RDA develop into a full-fledged southpaw threat. Showing a natural ability to kick with force, Dos Anjos has steadily refined his technique & timing as he favors shots to the liver and inside leg with precision. Applying his underrated technique and timing to his hands, RDA has also sharpened his cross-hook combinations as he variates them well to the body. Traditionally being the shorter man, Dos Anjos relies on his foot speed and ability to out-move his opponents, which is what makes this particular matchup so interesting.

Despite Rafael’s disciplined footwork and deceptive distance closing abilities, he will be facing one of the better lateral-movers in the division. With a style of footwork rooted from boxing, Alvarez demonstrates a solid understanding of angles and movement. Often operating out of a crouch(weight low & heavy over the power side), Alvarez will exercise his options of countering inside or stepping off to his left by utilizing a dart(in a similar fashion to Dominick Cruz). Although Alvarez has been more conservative in his approach as of late, he still consistently circles and steps to his left side. Moving left will come in handy for Alvarez as this leads him away from the power side of Dos Anjos’ attacks.

That said, Eddie’s propensity to move left coupled with his low-handed standing guard has traditionally cost him right-hand counters in his fights. In fact, Alvarez has been dropped or stunned in 7 of 10 of his last fights with right-hands often being the common culprit. Although most of RDA’s danger lies in his left side, the Brazilian throws an underrated right hook that I see being the biggest threat to Alvarez. However, most of the champion’s checkmarks in regards to striking reside within the offensive aspects of this fight. As impressive as those offensive improvements are, I am not so certain RDA has improved in the same ways defensively.

Even though Dos Anjos is the one who is usually pursuing, he will typically revert to a shell defense when under pressure. Although improved head & foot movement assists his defensive efforts, the shell RDA utilizes traditionally leaves openings for body shots & uppercuts. Despite Alvarez not showing the pressure fighting he was renown for earlier in his career, he still lands a solid 3.27 strikes per minute(surprisingly just above the champion). And considering that the uppercut is Eddie’s most dangerous punch, this could be a factor that rears it head in this fight.

Aside from the obvious possibility of Dos Anjos catching Alvarez in the early going, I feel that the wrestling exchanges should be a key factor in this fights outcome. Both fighters have shown a recent trend in solidifying rounds with takedowns & activity, which should make the wrestling battles even more competitive. Although Dos Anjos has made improvements to his offensive wrestling, I am not certain he has made the same strides defensively. Though most point to RDA’s shortcomings against Khabib as an outlying performance amongst his sample size(and I’d agree), Dos Anjos has still shown he can be taken down prior to and since that performance.

Even though Dos Anjos was able to immediately get back to his feet, the only two fighters who have tried to take down RDA since Nurmagomedov were both successful(Jason High and a tired Anthony Pettis in the 4th round). That said, it is hard to get a clear sense of Dos Anjos’ takedown defense considering his stylistic matchups since Khabib. Although Alvarez is no Nurmagomedov, he is an underrated wrestler as he demonstrates solid takedown chains that could pose problems for the champion. Although Dos Anjos displays good defense from the fence that could contest this, his aggression has shown to make him vulnerable to reactive shots in the open. With Alvarez spending the better part of this last year working his wrestling and MMA game with Frankie Edgar & company, I expect Eddie will look to exploit these opportunities should they arise. I also have a hard time seeing RDA grounding Eddie with consistency given Alvarez’s takedown defense rate of 91% (not to mention that he scrambles well back to his feet).

Ultimately, I feel that the entire camp of Mark Henry & company could be a crucial fit for a “wrestle-box” type fighter like Alvarez. Although Alvarez enjoyed his time with the Blackzilians down in South Florida, he stated that it wasn’t quite the right fit for him. After extensive work in New Jersey for this extended camp, we may see a new & resurgent Alvarez. In my opinion, Eddie’s camp adjustments coupled with his proven gameness give him an intangible edge in this battle. Even though I concede Dos Anjos as the justified favorite, this has all the signs of a trap fight as I recommend caution playing this one.

Official Pick: Alvarez – Decision

Official Outcome: Alvarez – TKO (round 1)

Summary:

*STATED BIAS: Due to my affiliation with Xtreme Couture MMA I will be opting out of analyzing this matchup as Roy Nelson has spent the duration of his camp there. I apologize for shorting you a breakdown on the main card, but I hope you understand my stance and effort for professionalism.

Official Pick: *Nelson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Lewis – Split Decision

Summary:

A sleeper candidate for a fight of the night bonus, the always exciting Alan Jouban welcomes Belal Muhammad to the UFC. One of the organizations usual suspects for performance bonuses, Jouban brings gameness and excitement no matter how dangerous the opposition. Originally slated to face Nordine Taleb, Alan will instead face a replacement just as talented in Belal Muhammad. Although taking this fight on 3-weeks notice, the recently crowned Titan FC champion has been in prior contact with the UFC and is more than ready to make his debut.

Coming from a wrestling base, Belal has shown consistent fight-to-fight improvements in all areas of his game, particularly his striking. Doing a great job of keeping his feet underneath him, Muhammad can stalk or counter with nearly equal effectiveness. Coupling his abilities to manage distance with his fight IQ, Muhammad intelligently works with what his opponent gives him as he steadily takes the steering wheel in his fights. Although his hard leg kicks have helped punctuate recent performances, I feel that Muhammad’s left hand may serve him especially well against Jouban.

Wielding consistent volume with his left jabs & hooks, Muhammad fundamentally follows-up his strikes accordingly. Deceptively accurate with his left hand, he could catch and or disrupt Alan’s attacks. Often in mid-exchange or when throwing from his left side, Jouban’s right hand/guard tends to drop as this can open him up to left hooks(as seen is his fight with Seth Baczynski). Positive points to his game aside, there are still many questions that need to be answered by Muhammad. In watching footage on Belal from the last few years, I could not find instances of how he reacts to being hurt as he carries a solid poker face and is seldom significantly hit.

Although I do not doubt that Belal can overcome adversity, it is nice to see a fighter thoroughly tested in that department before making their UFC debut against a firestorm like Alan Jouban. That said, despite Alan’s fast finishing fights, he tends to start slightly slow as he is usually susceptible to getting hit early. Even though Belal is a bit of a slow burn himself, he has recently stated in interviews that he recognizes Alan’s trend and intends to come on fast. With that being noted, I feel that pressure fighting will be a key factor in this fight. And not just who is pressuring, but more importantly, how the opposing fighter reacts to said pressure.

Despite Jouban’s style being shown to make clear pathways for pressure fighters, we have seen him successfully ride storms time-and-time again due to his ability to capitalize in the chaos. Although this style of operation is a two-way street, Alan will likely need to create such chaos if he means to take Muhammad into unfamiliar territory. With this being Jouban’s seventh fight with the UFC, this is the type of matchup where he will need to embrace his growing veteran status. Although you may not be familiar with the name Belal Muhammad, you will likely remember it after this fight as I suggest you stay away from playing this one. That said, my pick is Jouban as I feel his output and experience will earn him the more favorable terms of fighting.

Official Pick: Jouban – Decision

Official Outcome: Jouban – Decision

Summary:
In the always exciting lightweight division, “Irish” Joe Duffy takes on Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke. Coming off a hard-fought loss to Dustin Poirier earlier this year, the Tristar transplant will look to rebound with a victory here. Standing in his way is Mitch Clarke, who is also looking to get back on track after a tough loss to Michael Chiesa last year.

Despite injuries keeping Clarke to just 3-fights in the past 4-years, the Canadian fighter has still managed to work hard and steadily improve fight-to-fight. With many of those improvements coming from his camps at the MMA Lab, Mitch has spent this training camp down in New Mexico at Jackson-Wink MMA. It will be interesting to see what gameplan Greg Jackson & company employ, although, for me, Clarke’s path in this fight should be an obvious one.

Although Mitch has demonstrated improvements to his offensive & defensive game standing, I don’t feel his footwork & combinations will be on par with Joe Duffy as I give the Irishman a clear striking advantage. Not just a technically diverse and sharp striker, it is Duffy’s deceptive speed changes that make him so dangerous as I feel that will be a key factor in this fight. Subtly setting a perceived rhythm, Joseph will lull his opposition into a false sense of security before exploding and intercepting with accuracy.

Even though Clarke will have to be careful of the former boxer’s crafty jabs & hooks, the Canadian may find some success in the kicking department. Despite Duffy operating well offensively out of a boxing stance, he traditionally suffers defensively in regards to leg kicks. With that being a common side-effect from that stance, the heavy-legged Clarke could capitalize here and dissuade some of the Irishman’s movement. Ultimately, the Canadian’s best chances lie within getting Duffy to the ground.

A durable grappler with an aggressive takedown game, Clarke poses the stylistic puzzle pieces that could prove very troublesome for a fighter like Duffy. That said, the Canadian holds a 19% takedown success rate as he’s gone 3-for-16 in attempts over the last 5-years. When able to steer his opponents to the fence, Mitch displays a solid ability to chain together his favored single-leg variations. However, Clarke often lacks the executing explosion to turn his corners and finish his takedowns.

Regardless of whether Mitch finds wrestling success or not, it is the manner in which Duffy reacts to the pressure that will decide this fight. Although pressure fighting and wrestling were a clear path in Duffy’s last defeat, I don’t think we should be too quick to condemn him on that performance given his opposition. An underrated grappler and improved wrestler, Dustin Poirier was able to control Duffy particularly well against the fence.

Although Dustin did his part technically to ensure the fight stayed there, Duffy’s willingness to fight off his back was troubling. If Duffy does not adjust the approach in his get-up urgency, Clarke may be able to climb into his game and perhaps even steal a round. Even though Duffy displayed serviceable takedown defense before entering the UFC, I feel Clarke’s pressure will give us a good look at where the Irishman’s skillsets lay. Ultimately, I believe Duffy’s footwork and movement will limit Clarke’s availability for takedowns as his speed and accuracy will likely be too much.

Official Pick: Duffy – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Duffy – Submission (round 1)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on UFC Fight Pass is a fantastic welterweight matchup as undefeated Alberto Mina takes on the dangerous veteran Mike Pyle.

Although a veteran of martial arts himself, Alberto Mina has had a very measured approach to his MMA career. Only fighting three times in the past five years, Alberto will look to cement his presence amongst the UFC’s welterweight division. Standing in the Brazilian’s way is his toughest test to date, as he draws the always dangerous Mike Pyle. The term “crafty veteran” is an overused one in MMA, but that term has no better poster child than Mike Pyle. Although he is far from a child at forty years of age, the oldest active fighter in the division will be out to prove once again that he is still one of the most well-rounded & dangerous in the game.

Studying Judo & Brazilian Jiu-jitsu from a young age, Alberto Mina has shown to be more than just a Jiu-jitsu champion inside the cage. Despite not fighting with consistency throughout his career, Mina shows a surprising amount of craft and composure in his fight game. Demonstrating steady improvements to his striking, Alberto displays competency at multiple ranges. Putting his frame to good use, Mina stays long with his punches as he mixes in healthy looks of kicks and knees. Although Alberto does not appear to be a power puncher, he is deceptively effective with his technique and timing as he seemingly capitalizes at the correct times.

A steadily evolved striker himself, Mike Pyle’s arsenal of attacks have come into their own late in his career. Showing improved movement and awareness inside the pocket, we have seen Pyle’s right hand consistently deliver damage in his fights. Although craft inside the clinch is something he is renown for, Mike has recently thrown knees & elbows into the fold that have rounded out his offense with great effect. Although I feel Pyle is the more technically skilled fighter on the feet, there may be key areas he could be vulnerable to in this fight.

Despite retracting his right-hand high, Pyle tends to get hit with follow-up left(and right) hands due to his natural upright posture in retreat. With that said, I feel that Alberto’s left hook may come into play being that that’s his most accurate punch. However, the Brazilian bears similar defensive openings of his own as he tends to keep his head high coming off of his strikes. Although Alberto has a decent sense of avoiding counters, relying too heavily on his length could cost him in this contest.

Despite the majority of Mina’s finishes coming on the floor, I doubt he will have the same superiority in this match regardless of his accolades. Well-rounded, underrated, and crafty are all gross understatements on Mike Pyle’s ground game. Now I am not saying his game is beyond reproach, but for a guy with no official ranks or accolades, he is one of the best you will find. Where most ground specialists still require specific conditions for their game to be effective(Top players, Guard Players, Scramblers, etc.), Pyle can operate competently and comfortably from all positions. Whether he is chaining his submissions to his sweeps or stealing souls with his positional riding abilities, Pyle more than possesses the skills to compete with Mina.

Furthermore, I feel Pyle’s chances will grow in the grappling department if he is the one deciding it’s terms. Despite an improved double -leg entry, Mina traditionally shoots without any punch setups or feints. Although his aggressive attitude to get after it has often rewarded him ground stanzas, Alberto’s approach has been less effective against higher-level competition. Considering he is facing one of the more notoriously hard guys to get down, I feel the wrestling acumen of Pyle will likely dictate initial exchanges.

My ultimate assessment of this matchup is that the areas in which Mina favors to win fights are the same areas that Pyle specializes in. Whether it’s clinch fighting, guard playing, or figure-4 gripping, I feel that Pyle is much more versatile and proven in these positions. Even though Alberto has seemingly found ways to win his fights thus far, I believe that Pyle presents a matchup that can audit Alberto’s inconsistent activity & arsenal. Unless Mina can catch Pyle and get him out of there early, then the Brazilian may ultimately find himself in quicksand the longer this one goes.

Official Pick: Pyle – Decision

Official Outcome: Mina – TKO (round 2)

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Baghdad def. Makdessi
• Birchak def. Lopes
• Munhoz def. Doane
• Arantes def. Sanders
• Burns def. Sajewski
• Vieira def. Beltran
• Luque def. Herrera

For the complete analysis of future & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com