Summary:

Headlining the main card on FOX Sports 1 is a literal showdown of Cowboys. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone who was originally slated to fight Tim Means(pulled for USADA violations), will now face Brazil’s Alex “Cowboy” Oliviera. With 3 out of his 4 UFC bouts being on short notice, this should be old hat for Alex Oliveira. Also not shy to last minute stand-ins, Donald Cerrone will look to get back on the horse after coming up short in his recent title attempt.

As familiar as the MMA mainstream is with Cowboy Cerrone, the charismatic Cowboy Oliveira’s 2015 run has made him appear on the radar of many. From his fan friendly style to his unmistakable smile, there is a lot to like about the former bull rider. Although knockout power and aggression often speak louder than technique, it is the quiet traits of Alex that are most impressive. Primarily his ability to deceptively dictate the striking range, as the Brazilian will utilize his length & lateral movement to set up attack angles. Even though his arsenal is borderline basic(favoring left hook-right hand/uppercut combinations), Oliveira displays instinctive head movement off entries and in between punches. This style has kept him above water thus far in his career, but he won’t be carrying his usual advantages into this gun fight.

Similar in size, Donald will also be a big step up in skill for Oliveira. Despite a 4-inch reach advantage for Alex, I feel Cerrone’s kicking game will give him an edge in weapons range. With low hands and little kick offerings of his own, Oliveira will be relying on his footwork should he not show adjustments in this fight. In particular, I feel the way in which Alex applies head movement may cost him when exchanging with Donald. Showing a natural ability to slip punches or roll underneath, Oliveira does so with his head largely unprotected. This type of movement will make Alex available for knees & head kicks, which is troubling when you consider his opponents strengths.

From dangerously disguised head kicks to accurately intercepting his opposition with knees, Cerrone’s ability to read openings should give him the edge standing. Alex could try and disrupt Cerrone’s striking rhythm by implementing his strong clinch game against the fence. Although showing improvements in this area of his game, Oliveira still may lack the proper takedown technics to contest with Cerrone. Wielding a highly underrated wrestling game himself, I feel Donald can negate any “plan B” for Alex or even employ his own. If Oliveira is successful in grounding Cerrone, he may get more than he bargained for given Donald’s notorious guard game.

Alex’s best chances in this fight will certainly be in the opening frame. With Donald being suspect to slow starts, Oliveira’s quick & aggressive establishments could pay off early if he pours with a heavy hand. His right hand, in particular, will serve him best given Cerrone’s often upright head position. Though Donald’s body vulnerabilities have shown to be more apparent, Alex’s attack arsenal seems completely devoid of any body shots. It is hard not to be a fan of Cowboy Oliveira, but unless he makes big style adjustments he could find himself out-gunned here. I do however recommend caution as the off-paper intangibles make this shoot out a lot closer than it appears.

Official Pick: Cerrone – Decision

Official Outcome: Cerrone – submission (round 1)

Derek Brunson (14-3)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1″ Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 78″
• Last Fight: TKO Win / Sam Alvey (8-8-15)
• Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
• Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Moderate

Supplemental info:
+   3x Div.2 All-American Wrestler
+   BJJ Blue Belt
+   7 KO victories
+   10 first round finishes
+   3 Submission wins
+   KO power
+   Good power double takedown
+   Strong pressure against fence
^   Takedowns & strikes off the break
+   Solid top/positional control
^   Consistent pressure & strikes
+   Manages distance well
+   Subtle shuffle step entries
^   Closes distance & sets up strikes
+   Deadly left head kick

Roan Carneiro (20-9)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 37 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 75″
• Last Fight: Submission Win / Mark Munoz (2-28-15)
• Camp: American Top Team (Atlanta, GA)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Good

Supplemental info:
+   Regional MMA Titles
+   Multiple Grappling Accolades
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   9 first round finishes
+   3 KO victories
+   9 Submission wins
+   Strong inside clinch
^   Sticky body lock controls
+   Excellent transitional grappler
^   Active & technical back taker
+   Underrated wrestling ability
^   Div. 1 in Brazil
+   Has not been taken down in 5 yrs.
+   Solid striking fundamentals
^   Good defensive technics

Summary:

Pittsburgh’s co-main event features a battle of Top 15 middleweights as Derek Brunson takes on Roan Carneiro. Making a quiet but stern ascension, Brunson has been fighting his way up the Zuffa ranks for quite some time. He will now face one of his most experienced opponents in the veteran Carneiro. With a seemingly late career resurgence at 37 years old, Roan has showed a better grasp and execution of his overall game. Needless to say both men will be looking to crack the Top 10 and mainstream audiences radar with a win here.

Carrying more shown weapons standing, I give a slight edge to Brunson on the feet. Although he wields heavy hands & kicks, it’s his ability to close the distance that is most impressive. Using his own amalgamation of a Thai March & “shuffle-step”, Derek will deceptively move forward and set up strikes. Feinting and fakes will be a must against the technically and defensively sound Carneiro. Rarely throwing himself out of position, Roan displays basic but effective offense. His counter right hand, in particular, could be effective if Derek gets careless. Brunson should have the edge in firepower but his aggression sometimes leads him out of position.

With both fighters durability and styles, I expect much of this fight to take place in close quarters. Given that, neither man has succeeded a takedown in over five years, the clinch battle should be a key factor in this fight. Since both men are largely “top players”, I believe whoever scores a takedown should have an advantage. Although Derek’s athleticism & skill may make him harder to hold down, he will need to be very cautious if put in a position where he needs to stand. Like many wrestlers, their get-up methods are habitually based on turtling out to stand.

Despite being a very effective escape in MMA, it is also a risky one in that it will briefly open the back to be taken. These openings can be devastating against a back-take specialist like Carneiro, who displayed this exact scenario in his last bout with Mark Munoz. However, Brunson demonstrates a solid positional and defensive game that should keep him above water. I am a huge fan of late-career resurgences, and would love to see Roan get the win here. But it is hard to go against the fight-to-fight improvements of Derek and the quality of opposition he has faced. Although he is a justified favorite, I feel this fight is a lot closer than the odds have it. Proceed with caution.

Official Pick: Brunson – Decision

Official Outcome: Brunson – Inside the distance.

Cody Garbrandt (7-0)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’7″ Age: 24 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 65.5″
• Last Fight: Dec Win / Enrique Briones (7-11-15)
• Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+   Wrestling Titles & Accolades
+   32-1 as an Amateur Boxer
+   6 KO victories
+   4 first round finishes
+   KO Power
+   Accurate check hook
+   Deadly right hand
^   Counters / Intercepts
+   Underrated kicks
+   Fast hand speed & footwork
+   Explosive double-leg takedown
+   Excellent scramble ability
^   Gets back to feet
+/-Willingness to brawl
^   Engages emotionally

Augusto Mendes (5-0)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 66.5″
• Last Fight: Sub win / Donald Williams (7-7-15)
• Camp: MMA Lab (Arizona)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+   BJJ World Champion
+   Black Belt BJJ
+   1 TKO victory
+   2 first round finishes
+   4 Submission wins
+   Excellent ground control
^   Solid submission set ups
+   Shows good takedowns
+   Displays competent striking
+   Hard right body kicks
–    Left hand slightly low
–    Head upright in exchanges
–    Fighting on 7 days notice

Summary:

With John Lineker stepping out due to illness, Cody Garbrandt will now face the undefeated Augusto Mendes. The MMA Lab once again saves the day with it’s short notice stable, as Mendes will certainly have his work cut out for him in fighting Cody “No Love“. Seeming undeterred from this new challenge, the confident Team Alpha Male prospect will look to use this stage to make a statement.

Aside from the seven-day notice, I feel the standing exchanges will present the most problems for Mendes. Despite competing at Bantamweight, Augusto shows a more plotting approach that could play into the hands of Garbrandt. Possessing excellent foot speed & movement, Cody’s footwork should dictate the angles and overall terms of offense. Mendes also shows to keep his left-hand low with his head upright in exchanges. I feel this will make him wide open for Garbrandt’s deadly right-hand.

Augusto looks to have strong kicks standing, but I suspect those will only lead to takedown and counter opportunities. Though I am sure Mendes would not mind making this a ground fight, I doubt Cody’s wrestling will allow him much say. With extended mat time not looking to be on the menu, Augusto’s best chances to catch Garbrandt will likely be in transition. But with Cody training with some of the best transitional finishers in MMA, it’s difficult to see things materializing for the Brazilian here.

Official Pick: Garbrandt – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Garbrandt – TKO (round 1).

Dennis Bermudez (14-5)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 66″
• Last Fight: TKO loss / Jeremy Stephens (7-11-15)
• Camp: Long Island MMA (NY)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+   TUF 14 Finalist
+   NCAA Div. 1 All-American
+   4 KO victories
+   4 first round finishes
+   4 Submission wins
+   Consistent pace & pressure
^   Athletic / well conditioned
+   Good fundamental footwork
+   Hard leg kicks & knees
+/-Aggressive entries
+   Excellent takedown defense
^   Solid balance & base
+   Strong inside clinch
+   Great scrambling & positional awareness

Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-8-2)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’7″ Age: 37 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 69″
• Last Fight: Decision win / Jason Knight (12-1–15)
• Camp: T-Blood (Japan)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Moderate

Supplemental info:
+   Shooto Lightweight Title
+   Shooto Rookie of the Year
+   12 KO victories
+   16 first round finishes
+   10 Submission wins
+   Heavy hands
+   Will switch stances
^   Kicks & shots from southpaw
+   Manages distance well
–    Wild / low-handed entries
+   Strong pressure against cage
^   Favors double-leg takedowns
+   Excellent top game
^   Suffocating head & shoulder pressure

Summary:

In a fun featherweight matchup, Dennis Bermudez looks to get back on track against the crafty Tatsuya Kawajiri. Despite being the veteran fighter, Kawajiri will be the one carrying a win streak into the octagon. Getting caught by two of the divisions best, Bermudez will surely be setting his sights on another winning streak.

Starting off on the feet, is where I feel the New York native will have his biggest advantage. Demonstrating technically aggressive footwork, Bermudez’s consistent pressure may give fits to Kawajiri and possibly force bad shots. When not pressuring for the takedown, Tatsuya will shuffle along the outside switching his stance. This distance disruption will usually buy him enough time to engage. From southpaw, he offers decent enough kicks and takedown entries. However, he will often fancy ineffective spinning back-fists that may cost him against Bermudez.

Wielding an excellent reactive-shot of his own, Dennis packs an accurate counter right hand that could find it’s home should Tatsuya get wild. With that said, Dennis has also shown susceptibilities to right hands. Carrying his left hand slightly low and coming in aggressive is how Bermudez was caught in his last two fights. Although Kawajiri has the skills to tangibly time Dennis, I suspect the Japanese fighter to continue his trend of offensive wrestling. Suffocating his opposition into the cage or onto the mat, Tatsuya has been able to dominate most at featherweight with strength and fundamental positioning.

Where the rubber may fail to hit the road is that he is facing a better wrestler with superior athleticism & conditioning. With an active clinch game of his own, the key factor for Bermudez will be his ability to out-scramble Kawajiri. I have always been a big fan of Kawajiri’s role in Japanese MMA, but with Bermudez holding the best takedown defense in UFC featherweight history(92%), it’s hard to see Tatsuya gaining his necessary momentum here.

Official Pick: Bermudez – Decision

Official Outcome: Bermudez – Decision

Joe Riggs (41-16)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 71.5″
• Last Fight: DQ win / Ron Stallings (9-5-15)
• Camp: MMA Lab (AZ)
• Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Moderate

Supplemental info:
+   Former WEC Middleweight Champ
+   Strikeforce Interim WW Title
+   Brown Belt BJJ
+   29 KO victories
+   27 first round finishes
+   7 Submission wins
+   KO Power
+   Dangerous left hand
+   Crafty check right hook
+   Strong in clinch
^   Favors body lock takedowns
+   Solid transitional grappler
^   Underrated back taker
+   Hard elbows / ground strikes
–    Shown cut & injury vulnerabilities
–    Reluctant kick defense

Chris Camozzi (22-10)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’3″ Age: 29 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 75.5″
• Last Fight: Decision win / Tom Watson (8-8-15)
• Camp: Factory X Muay Thai (Denver, CO)
• Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
• Risk Management: Moderate

Supplemental info:
+   TUF 11 Alum
+   Multiple Regional MMA Titles
+   Brown Belt BJJ
+   7 KO victories
+   7 first round finishes
+   6 Submission wins
+   Accurate distance striker
^   2nd most strikes in UFC MW history
+   Excellent leg kicks
^   Most landed in UFC MW history
+   Active long jab
+   Underrated Guillotine
+   Improved takedown defense
^   Good under-hook awareness
–    Struggles when pressure fought
+   Solid chin / never stopped

Summary:

In a middleweight scrap of two UFC veterans, Joe Riggs will take on Chris Camozzi. With both men having a knack for making fights close, I can understand if this match is hard to get a beat on. Starting off on the feet, I feel Camozzi will have an inherent advantage in the southpaw vs southpaw matchup. From an active long jab to hard leg kicks, Camozzi’s overall arsenal should translate effectively.

Joe Riggs has made strides in his striking in regards to his head/offensive movement. However, he shows a reluctance to checking and defending leg kicks. This could be very troublesome considering Chris has landed the most leg kicks in UFC middleweight history. I feel Camozzi’s length and distance striking will give Joe fits should he not find his way inside.

Despite both men holding Brown Belts in Jiu-Jitsu, I feel Riggs should be the more technically skilled MMA grappler. Riggs has a very underrated transition game and ability to take backs in scrambles, but it’s floating on top delivering elbows where Joe makes his money. I feel that taking this fight to the ground will be Riggs strongest recipe for success. However, Joe favors his takedowns from the clinch, which is a place where Camozzi is strong.

Demonstrating solid under-hook awareness, Chris has steadily improved his takedown defense over the years. This has also helped Camozzi incorporate offense into his clinch via hard knees & elbows. Although Riggs is more than capable of taking Chris to the ground, I feel Camozzi should be able to shut a large amount of attempts down. I hate to come off as discounting Joe Riggs as he is a true veteran of the sport. But after repeated injuries, cuts, and mental lulls, it’s hard to pick him confidently here.

Official Pick: Camozzi – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Camozzi – TKO (round 1)

James Krause (22-7)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’2″ Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 75″
• Last Fight: Sub win / Daron Cruickshank (7-25-15)
• Camp: Glory MMA & Fitness (Missouri)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
• Risk Management: Moderate

Supplemental info:
+   TUF 15 Alum
+   Amateur MMA Titles
+   Brown Belt BJJ
+   6 KO victories
+   16 first round finishes
+   14 Submission wins
+   Accurate long jab
+   Deceptive front & head kicks
+   Will switch stances
^   Hard kicks from southpaw
+   Sneaky speed changes
–    Struggles with volume
–    Shown body shot availabilities
+   Dangerous submission game
^   Competent from all positions
+/-5/26 in takedowns (last 8 fights)

Shane Campbell (13-2)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0″ Age: 28 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
• Last Fight: Dec win / Elias Silverio (8-23-15)
• Camp: Toshido MMA (Canada)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
• Risk Management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+   North American Muay Thai Title
+   Kickboxing Accolades
+   Purple Belt BJJ
+   5 KO victories
+   3 first round finishes
+   2 Submission wins
+   KO power / heavy kicks
+   Aggressive pace & pressure
+   Will switch stances
^   Deadly liver kicks from southpaw
+   Devastating leg kicks
+   Improved wrestling ability
^   Good takedown defense
+   Active transition & submission game
+/-Will fight from bottom
+/-Willingness to exchange

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX Sports 1 the UFC will once again turn to it’s Lightweight division as James Krause battles Shane Campbell. Having mixed showings since his arrival, Krause will be looking to score his first win streak in the organization. A well-rounded & exciting fighter, James is the slightly favored and more experienced on paper. However, the Canadian kickboxer may be much more live than the numbers show.

Known primarily for his dangerous striking, Shane Campbell possesses an underrated submission & wrestling game. Working with David Lee at Toshido MMA, Shane has steadily been rounding out these aspects of his game. In watching his previous fights, it’s clear that Campbell has been conditioned to counter wrestle. With few opponents willing to strike for extended periods of time, most of Shane’s matches involve him thwarting grappling efforts.

With Krause not possessing the most aggressive nor effective takedown game(25% UFC success rate), I expect most of this fight to contest and likely be decided on the feet. However, I do feel James carries a slight advantage in his overall ground game. Although Shane displays solid submission defense, he will have to mind his position in scrambles given Krause’s back taking ability. That said, it’s standing where I see the scales shifting toward Shane.

Both men are offensively minded strikers who like to use their hands to set up kicks. Carrying a natural reach advantage, James wields a nice long jab that he can use to disrupt Campbell’s aggressiveness. As seen in his fight with John Makdessi, Shane will not shy from a gun fight if engaged. However, James will have to commit to giving & taking as Makdessi did if he means to follow that path.

Often referred to as “tall-guy defense”, both fighters show a natural tendency to keep their head upright and even lead-off movements with it. Although this will keep head kicks in play, I see body kicks being the key factor in this fight. Being hit and hurt to the body in 3 of his last 6 fights, I’m not sure I like Krause’s chances against one of the best body kickers in the game. With uncanny liver accuracy, Campbell only needs the tips of his toes to steal your soul. James is super tough and technically well-rounded but looks to struggle in what Shane carries in spades.

Official Pick: Campbell – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Krause – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions

• Strickland def. Garcia
• Sarafian def. Bamgbose
• Webb def. Coy
• Smith def. Leleco
• Reneau def. Evans-Smith
• Murphy def. Faszholz
• Hamilton def. Abdurakhimov

Recommended Plays

Pieces for your parlay:

-Chris Camozzi
-Cody Garbrandt
-Dennis Bermudez

Props worth looking at:

-Shane Campbell – Inside the distance
-Cody Garbrandt- by KO/TKO
-Dennis Bermudez – by Decision

Fights to avoid:

-Derek Brunson vs Roan Carneiro
-Daniel Sarafian vs Oluwale Bamgbose
-Alex Garcia vs Sean Strickland

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Donald Cerrone
-Cody Garbrandt
-Chris Camozzi

Low Tier Picks:

-Alex Oliveira
-Shane Campbell
-Roan Carneiro

For the complete analysis of future & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com

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