Summary:

In the newly minted main event of the evening, Johny Hendricks and Stephen Thompson will battle for welterweight title contender-ship. Coming off the most impressive win of his career, Thompson will attempt to establish his arrival against his toughest test to date. Returning from a year of competition interrupted by professional & weight related issues, Hendricks will look to reestablish his dominance amongst the division.

Despite both men’s improvements of opposing skillsets, this match should still bear clear pathway advantages as I see this going one of two ways. On the feet, not only do I feel that Thompson carries the on-paper edge, but also has certain favorable openings stylistically. Hendricks has stood and made his mark with strikers such as Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit, and Matt Brown. What’s important to note is that all of these are forward moving strikers who are not natural counter fighters. In fact, Johny has yet to face a high-level counter striker, much less a pin-point accurate world champion like Thompson.

Still showing to make strides in his striking game, Hendricks displays improved head movement and kicks off combinations. Wielding underrated leg kicks, he could test the wide-based stance of Stephen. However, with Johny being a southpaw, I expect the switch-stance Karate fighter to primarily operate from orthodox. Favoring kicks off his right leg, this stance will keep Thompson’s options of power kicks and spinning attacks in play. With Hendricks being a constant wrestling threat, I doubt Stephen spins much as I see his right head kick having success. Johny shows a natural tendency to keep his left hand low and even drop it on entries. This has traditionally opened him up to right hands and head kicks(as seen in his fights with Condit & Brown).

This could pose problems for Hendricks as Thompson wields accurate right crosses and well-disguised head kicks. Throwing consistent left to right hands, Stephen will smoothly sneak his kick over the shoulder off his darts(as seen in his fight with Dan Stittgen). Obviously, Hendricks is a much more durable & skilled fighter than to whom I referenced. Regardless, he will still be playing with fire should stay in the range of Thompson. Johny’s clear path to victory here is to abuse Stephen with his wrestling edge. Though Thompson has shown impressive improvements to his overall grappling game, I’m not sure how successful he will be in thwarting one of the division’s best.

However, Hendricks takedown game has shown to be primarily implemented against the fence. Johny has displayed the ability to corral opposition here when he needs to, but must be especially careful doing so against Thompson. Hendricks aggression has worked well against said forward-moving strikers, but he could pay against an excellent counter striker(and angle-cutter) as he’ll often throw himself out of position on entries.

I came into this fight favoring Johny Hendricks, as I believe his on-paper advantages and resume makes him the justified favorite. That being said, the off-paper intangibles of his changes in management, nutritionists, and camp are potential flags for me. Though Johny’s weight looks to be on point, we’ve still seen great fighters like Chris Weidman come in light and not perform. Between those intangibles to the glaring technical holes standing, I feel that now is the best time for Thompson’s chances. Johny could very well demolish Stephen on the floor, but will likely need to put forth a massive effort to ground Thompson in the big cage. This could be very troubling for the Texan should he not get Stephen out of there early. For these reasons I strongly caution any serious plays here. However, I do stand by analysis & official pick, which is very hard to do as a big fan of Hendricks.

Official Pick: Thompson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Thompson – Inside the distance(TKO round 1).

Summary:

The evening’s co-main event features a heavyweight showdown between Roy “Big Country” Nelson and Jared “The Big Show” Rosholt. Always a fan favorite of fight fans, Roy Nelson will be seeking a vintage victory to get him back on the winning track. Despite his losses coming to high-level competition, a win will be crucial for Roy as he’s lost 5 of this last 6 fights. For Jared, this will be the biggest name and opportunity of his career, but it will also be his most difficult test.

This fight breaks down pretty simply for me in regards to areas of advantage. Starting off on the feet, Roy Nelson holds the clear advantage in technique & fire-power. Using his deceptive athleticism, Nelson will shuffle his way into the pocket behind feints. Often prodding his left hand and changing levels, Roy will look to create defensive uncertainty in range as he unloads devastating right hands. Though possessing underrated leg kicks, going to the well here will actually serve Roy best in this fight.

As big right hands are Nelson’s most notable weapons, they are also Rosholt’s most notable weakness. Aside from occasionally dropping his guard in exchanges, Jared tends to retract his left hooks low & slow. This has opened up Rosholt to right-hand counter shots in particular(as seen his recent fights with Copeland & Johnson). Jared does, however, move his head well off his right crosses. This will be crucial for Rosholt if he means to enter space, as I see wrestling being his most tangible path to victory. With Nelson having his back to the wall figuratively, Jared will have mimic this physically by driving Roy to the fence. We’ve seen opposition effectively wear on Nelson and disrupt his momentum here. This is also the space where Rosholt is most successful at completing takedowns.

Albeit not the most exciting style, Jared’s positional rides could steal him rounds should he find himself on top. However, Roy has shown underrated and improved wrestling skills of his own. With the only 2 men to take him down in 11 fights being Daniel Cormier & Stipe Miocic, Jared will certainly have his work cut out for him. As even the elite have had little success in holding Roy down, I have a hard time seeing Rosholt doing what he wants to.

Jared will also have to be mindful when striking inside the clinch. Although he wields a solid right uppercut that could find similar success as Barnett’s did, Rosholt’s clinch game isn’t as defensively sound. Utilizing a traditional collar tie as opposed to Josh’s slick grip fighting, Rosholt’s dirty boxing style allows more leverage & lanes for his opposition. With Jared’s said defensive liabilities getting him hurt and/or dropped in 5 of his last 7 fights, I don’t think he makes it out of the kitchen without being burned.

Official Pick: Nelson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Nelson – Unanimous Decision.

Summary:

In a dangerous contest of light-heavyweights, Ovince “OSP” St. Preux will do battle with Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante. With both men carrying aggressive styles and finish-friendly resumes, I doubt the judges will be needed for this fight. Feijao, in particular, has not seen the scorecards in victory and only once in defeat(loss to Ryan Bader). Losing 3 of his last 4 fights in a four-year span, a win here will be crucial for Cavalcante’s career. This will be no easy task as he’s drawn the ever-improving St. Preux. Despite coming off a loss to one of the division’s best, OSP has shown consistent fight-to-fight improvements and potential.

Starting off on the feet, Rafael will stalk forward similarly to a Thai March. Possessing good head movement and a hard right cross, Feijao looks to draw engagements through gun fights. This will be his best chances of winning should OSP oblige, however, the Haitian’s inherent footwork would suggest otherwise. Utilizing his natural speed & athleticism, St. Preux will actively change range and attack angles through shifts in his movement. This could fuel the frustration shown by Cavalcante when not allowed offense on his terms.

With Feijao showing to be most effective & accurate when aggressive, this subconscious caveat could play right into St. Preux’s style. Though OSP wields powerful left kicks & crosses, I feel his shifting hooks will serve him best. Displaying a shift variation referred to in traditional martial arts as “opening the gate“, the Southpaw will swing his lead foot backward into an orthodox stance. This deceptively changes the attack range and perceptions of OSP’s opposition. It also allows St. Preux to keep his accurate left hand in play, as we saw this in perfect depiction against Shogun Rua(I also refer to this technique in my Cruz-Dillashaw Breakdown as Cruz has been masterfully doing this for years).

Although I give OSP a slight advantage in wrestling, he’ll need to mind his neck on shots as Feijao has an excellent guillotine. If St. Preux does choose to engage in grappling, I feel he will be more successful than their on-paper rankings suggest. Showing excellent grip fighting awareness, OSP consistently battles for inside hand positioning when in the guard. This opens up his devasting ground strikes that we saw on full display against Cody Donovan. When getting up is a difficult option, Feijao will often succeed closed guard and could subject himself to some harsh weather. Couple these technical habits with Rafael’s propensity to fade under pressure, I feel St. Preux will just need to “add water” to make this one work.

Official Pick: St Preux – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: St Preux – Unanimous Decision .

Summary:

For the main card’s flyweight attraction, number one ranked Joseph Benavidez takes on Zack Makovsky. As two of the division’s most technical & well-rounded fighters, we could be in for three rounds of high-speed chess. With both men coming off a run of decisions, expect each fighter to use this stage to make their statements.

Though both southpaws, each man approaches the striking game differently. Utilizing a shelled guard and bladed stance, the more defensively minded Makovsky will move soundly behind his lead jabs. Firing off an accurate left cross, he displays exceptional head movement off throwing it. Not only does this make him difficult to counter, but parlays perfectly into Zack’s transitional takedown entries.

Despite Makovsky’s impressive technical acumen, I favor Benavidez in the standing exchanges. Showing constant improvements & evolutions, Joseph employs a much more active and unpredictable style. Consistently changing angles & stances through a series of shifts, Benavidez is constantly dictating the offensive terms. Though still dangerous blitzing forward with hooks, it’s his developments in counter fighting that is most interesting.

Primarily standing in southpaw, Benavidez has shown a recent trend to fire off weapons from orthodox. Often stepping back into this stance to give the perception of retreat, Joseph will draw opposition into his counter right hand. Though effective with his punches, Benavidez’s kicking game may serve him best in this fight. Although Makovsky shows to be defensively sound, the weight distribution of his said bladed stance makes him vulnerable to leg kicks. Already wielding powerful left Thai kicks, Joseph could disrupt Zack’s movement should he set aim on his thighs.

Makovsky’s strongest chances in this match will depend on how effectively he can implement his wrestling game. Being able to take down opposition multiple times has been a common thread and a key to all Zack’s UFC victories. However, he will have to be careful of Benavidez’s notorious guillotine choke. Although Makovsky has some of the best takedown transitions in the division, his most effective finish is the high crotch. This single-leg variation puts Zack’s head position high and on the outside. Knowing that this move aligns his neck within a guillotine choke’s grasp, Makovsky does a beautiful job of throwing his hips across his opponent’s body as completes the takedown. Not only does this defend against the choke, but it keeps him a step ahead and into side control.

Regardless of this, anytime Zack puts his neck near Joseph he will be playing with fire. In fact, it’s this technical intricacy that I feel will dictate the ground exchanges. For example, both men show fantastic under-hook awareness and use of butterflies to achieve get-ups. However, Makovsky’s position reversals & reestablishments are heavily predicated off his single-leg engagements. I for one, am a big fan of get-ups and reversals from single-leg positions. Unfortunately, the trade-off is that these positions allow your head & neck into the game. I feel this may ultimately play into the hands of Benavidez who has made a career off dictating grappling positions via head control. With this technical standoff not likely producing a finish, I’d avoid any fantasy picks here.

Official Pick: Benavidez – Decision

Official Outcome: Benavidez – Decision.

Summary:

In a what should be a fun light-heavyweight styles match, Misha Cirkunov meets the debuting Alex Nicholson. With the UFC 196 main event dropping out, the move to FOX Sports 1 was a nice improvisation. Not without consequence, it seems the main card will now include lesser known fighters in the effort to conserve the balance. Regardless, this is a fantastic showcase opportunity for both fighters to score big on the main stage.

An athletic powerhouse, Alex Nicholson shows to be very technically capable for a former heavyweight. Despite moving very well, it is his aggressive scrappiness that has set him apart thus far in his career. Although showing competent kickboxing skills, Alex shows a flair for the wild side favoring superman punches and spinning back-fists. Despite this style earning him stoppage victories, it’s also gotten him consistently countered and takedown. Often throwing himself out of position, he could play right into the game of Misha Cirkunov.

An athletic specimen in his own right, Cirkunov is a grappling based martial artist who has steadily progressed his career. Not only has he shown the ability to end fights standing, but he also displays solid defensive fundamentals. In keeping tight hand positioning and moving his head, I feel Cirkunov should be able to safely navigate his way inside. I expect the clinch exchanges to be most telling, as I suspect that will be the key factor in this fight. Although Nicholson’s takedown defense should fair better in the cage(as most of his previous fights took place in a ring), he still shows to struggle with his positional awareness.

With his lone submission win coming by guillotine choke in his amateur career, Alex has pursued it defensively in almost every fight since then. However, with Misha’s lack of traditional wrestling entries, I doubt he will be able to significantly threaten the BJJ Black Belt. Should Cirkunov get on top and start to work, it could be a short night for both men. Nicholson looks to be incredibly tough and physically resilient, but this may be too much too soon. Showing to be on a completely different level on paper and in the cage, it’s hard not to side with the Latvian here.

Official Pick: Cirkunov – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Cirkunov – Inside the distance(Technical Submission round 2).

Summary:

Kick starting the main card on FOX Sports 1 is a solid pairing of welterweights, as Mike Pyle takes on Sean Spencer. As a favorite to fans & fighters alike, the veteran Pyle will look get back on the winning track. Also coming off a loss(albeit controversial), Sean Spencer is back in the hunt after one year plus outside the Octagon.

I see this fight going one of two ways, and neither of which involve the judges. Starting off on the feet, I give the overall striking edge to Sean Spencer. The Golden Gloves champ shows disciplined head movement & footwork, as he smoothly creates angles and attacks. The volume striker also shows a knack for establishing range early. This could be particularly troublesome for Pyle as his last four TKO stoppages have come in the beginning of rounds. That being said, I don’t feel Sean quite fits the bill of those who have stopped Pyle(MacDonald, Brown, Mein, and Ellenberger).

Despite being a technically sound boxer, Spencer has yet to show us his killer instinct and stopping power inside the Octagon(as I’m sure he has it). Which is why Mike will have to be especially mindful in retreat as his head tends to go upright. With Spencers said volume over power-shot style, he remains a threat late into rounds showing a slow burn. Though displaying excellent head movement on his pulls & returns, Sean will have to be careful when dipping his head near the center line. Pyle has dangerous knees and counters that could make Spencer pay for his pattern predictability.

Although Pyle can compete with Spencer’s on paper strengths, I’m not so sure the same can be said the other way around. Despite one-dimensional criticisms, Spencer has shown active improvements in his counter wrestling. That being said, he still wields a box cutter in comparison to Pyle’s swiss army knife of MMA Skillsets. Still showing to struggle with under hook principles, it is Spencer’s urgency & athleticism against the cage that keeps him upright. Aside from his first UFC bout with Rafael Natal, all of Seans opponents since have had difficulty grounding him.

However, none of those fighters have the same grappling prowess as Pyle. Known for his crafty clinch & guard game, Mike has a solid reactionary shot to add to his trips and throws. Being one of the first & few men to take down Rory Macdonald, I feel that Pyle should be able to exercise his advantages. I must admit that I have been a big supporter of Mike Pyle throughout his career. That said, I assure you my ethical due diligence here as I stand by my work. Regardless, this match heavily screams caution of any serious plays due it’s on & off paper intangibles.

Official Pick: Pyle – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Pyle – Inside the distance(TKO round 3).

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