Vitor Belfort (24-11)

Poirier

vs.

Dan Henderson (31-13)

Roy

Vitor2

Vitor Belfort (24-11)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 38 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74″
  • Last Fight: TKO loss / Chris Weidman (5-23-15)
  • Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   Former UFC LHW Champ
+   UFC HW Tournament Champ
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   Boxing experience (1-0 as pro)
+   Jiu – Jitsu Champion(unspecified)
+   18 first round finishes
+   17 KO victories
+/-One fight in 2 yrs.(Weidman loss)
+   Improved Kickboxing
^   Effectively adding kicks
+   Accurate left hand
^   Sets up L. head kick
+/-Slips heavily to left side
^   Counter L. Uppercut – R. Hook
–    Will succeed to bottom
^   Looks to sub or stall
–    Struggles with top pressure/G&P

Hendo3

Dan Henderson (31-13)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’11” Age: 45 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74″
  • Last Fight: KO win / Tim Boetsch (6-6-15)
  • Camp: Team Quest (Temecula, CA)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   2x US Olympic Wrestling Team
+   Multiple Greco-Roman Accolades
+   Pride MW & WW Title holder
+   UFC 17 MW Tournament winner
+   Strikeforce LHW Champion
+   14 first round finishes
+   15 KO victories
–    2-7 in last four years
+   KO power/Heavy hands
+   Physically strong in clinch
+   Deadly right hand
–    Throws himself out of position
+/-Slips heavily to his right
^   Possesses R. Uppercut counter
–    Head dips low/right on entries
^   Shows counter vulnerabilities
+   Dangerous Ground & Pound

Summary:

For the evenings “main course” Brazil is treated to a rubber match between legends, as Vitor Belfort & Dan Henderson do battle one final time. When you not only consider their last meeting, but the fact that Henderson is 2-7 in the last four years, it’s easy to see why Belfort comes in as the favorite. His only losses in nine years comes to the sports best(Silva, Jones, and Weidman), but he’s only fought once in the last 2 years in what has arguably been a troublesome time in “The Phenom’s” career.  Though I do acknowledge Vitor’s positive test/level history, and his visible physical to performance variances, I try to maintain efficacy by keeping my analysis technically based and free from private intangibles or personal opinions(That doesn’t mean I don’t factor in these intangibles for my personal analysis or private plays).

With all that out of the way, let’s jump into this bouts technical action. Vitor is well known for his blitzing killer-instinct but is primarily a counter fighter. Habitually slipping to his left, Belfort possesses an excellent left uppercut-right hook counter. I would say that this is Henderson’s best chance to land his right, but in their most recent(and relevant) fight, we saw Vitor’s speed & technique prevail as his countering was spot on. Granted it’s in Dan’s entries where he’s most vulnerable, he’ll none the less have to show improvements and awareness here. With a “never say die” aggression & power, Henderson will often throw himself off balance and out of position. It’s here that he’s available for TD’s & counter punches, especially given his nature to overcorrect this by swinging back into the fire(his opponents range).

Defensively, Dan keeps his right hand high and will dip & slip hard to that side. He will have to be careful when doing this with Vitor’s looming left high kick. Sharpening and showing this tool since his fight with “Sexy-Yamma”, this could once again prove useful to Belfort with Dan’s propensity to lean heavily right. Henderson’s best chance to beat Belfort’s speed & aggression is utilize his counter right-hand set ups. As we saw in his fights with Fedor & Boetsch, Dan can still be effective with his power moving backwards. Henderson should also have an advantage on the floor, but given Vitor’s movement & Dan’s TD tendencies(10 for 27 TD’s in 39 fights) I doubt we’ll see much ground time. However, should this fight go past a second round, I feel Dan’s TD interests & overall chances of winning will greatly increase.

The one intangible I will factor in(and you should too) is the age & experience of each man’s glorious but weathered career. Though I feel Henderson’s line is mis-valued & worth looking at, I’d avoid any Fantasy picks despite this being a 5 round affair. I am self admittedly a huge Dan Henderson fan, but in unbiasedly looking at the information I give a slight edge to Belfort in this fight. Although I don’t necessarily agree that “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks”, I feel any expectations on either man should be respectfully tempered as so.

Official Pick: Belfort – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Belfort – KO round 1.

Glover Teixeira (23-4)

vs.

Patrick Cummins (8-2)

Glover3

Glover Teixeira (23-4)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’2″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
  • Last Fight: Submission win / Ovince St. Pruex (8-8-15)
  • Camp: Team Teixeira/ATT (Danbury, CT)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: B+

Supplemental info:
+   Sport Fight Champion
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   14 KO victories
+   16 first round finishes
+   4 Submission wins
+   KO power/Heavy hands
+   Solid Boxing technique
+   Good head/economy of movement
^   Rarely overextends himself
+   Excellent follow up left Hook
+   Competent TD Defense
+/-Will drop for Guillotines
+   Favors single-leg TD’s
+   Strong Ground & Pound
+/-Turtles out from bottom
^   Vulnerable to strikes/controls
–    Struggles when backs against cage
+   Good durability & recoverability

Cummins3

Patrick Cummins (8-2)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’2″ Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
  • Last Fight: TKO win / Rafael Cvalcante (8-1-15)
  • Camp: RVCA/Kings MMA (California)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: B-

Supplemental info:
+   2x All-American Wrestler
+   2x US National Team Wrestler
+   4 KO victories
+   4 first round finishes
+   75% overall finishing rate
+   Well chained TD attempts
+   Excellent reactive shots
+   Grinding top controls
^   Powerful G&P/Elbows
+   Physically strong/stopping power
–    Hands low/head leads on entry
^   Vulnerable to counter shots
–    Lacks head movement off strikes
+   Good ground scrambling
+   Excellent forward TD drive
^   Usually takes opposition to cage
+   Solid submission defense
+   Well paced & conditioned

Summary:

In the “Co-Main Event” of the evening, Light-Heavyweights Glover Teixeira and Patrick Cummins do battle. Given both men’s stylistic strengths this one breaks down fairly simply. On the feet, Teixeira possesses solid Boxing technique with a nice economy of head & overall movement. Glover will seldom kick or throw himself out of position, making him match up well with Cummins on the feet. Cummins however does show improved stand up, particularly in his distancing where he manages it by utilizing shots/TD threats. It’s when Pat closes this distance in his entries is when he’s most vulnerable. With low hands and leading with his head, Cummins will shoot his way into space(often unaccompanied by punches). Here is where Glover will have his best chance to close the show given his counter punch abilities.

As good as Teixeira’s attack/counter-attacks are, he shows to struggle offensively & defensively when his backs to the cage. This is exactly where Pat will need to dictate this fight both standing and on the ground to walk away victorious. In fact, an initial tell to this fights outcome will be told within Pat’s early approach. Despite possessing an explosively well timed Power-Double(in which he uses to discourage/counter forward pressure), Should Pat allow Glover to establish the center and get comfortable, his striking & TD effectiveness may diminish. Cummins will need to keep  an “in your face” range of strikes to shots for his best chances of grounding Glover. Less we not forget that Teixeira is an underrated wrestler with good defense & get ups from the bottom.

With Teixeira proving hard to be held down, Cummins best chances top-side will be from inside the guard. From here, not only will he be able to maximize his offensive tools, but will also limit Glover’s escapes being that he favors under-hook & turtle out get ups. Should Pat succeed this much in his fight dictation, I wouldn’t bank on a finish given Glovers durability & defense. Which means if Cummins is gonna win this fight, He’ll have show the up-most discipline to do this to Glover for three rounds in hostile territory. Given that lofty task I’ll be siding with the Brazilian on this one albeit slightly. Even in a flat performance against another stylistic challenge in Phil Davis, Glover still showed the conditioning & heart to relentlessly fight back to his feet. Though Davis who rarely tires, was exhausted even after a clear victory. Though a different style of wrestler than Davis, Cummins more than possesses the tools to upset in similar fashion. With that said, I’d strongly caution any plays on this one’s outcome.

Official Pick: Teixeira – Decision

Official Outcome: Teixeira – TKO round 2.

Thomas Almeida (19-0)

vs.

Anthony Birchak (12-2)

THomas3

Thomas Almeida (19-0)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’7″ Age: 24 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 72.5″
  • Last Fight: KO win / Brad Pickett (7-11-15)
  • Camp: Chute Box (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management:Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   Legacy BW Champion
+   Brown Belt BJJ
+   15 KO victories
+   4 Submission wins
+   15 first round finishes
+   Aggressive forward pressure
+   Volume/variety striker
+   Finishes combos with L. Hooks
^   Especially liver shots
+   Dangerous lead switch-knee
+   Good elbows & uppercuts
+/-Will stand toe-to-toe
–    Takes damage(especially early)
+   Favors lead right hand
^   Head leans heavily left
+   Excellent get up ability
+   Improved TD defense
+/-Gets hurt but recovers well

Birchak1

Anthony Birchak (12-2)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 70″
  • Last Fight: KO win / Joe Soto (6-6-15)
  • Camp: Luta Elite MMA (Tucson, AZ)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: B-

Supplemental info:
+   Regional BW Titles
+   NCAA Div. 2 Wrestler
+   4x Greco State Champ (AZ)
+   Purple Belt BJJ
+   6 first round finishes
+   6 submission wins
+   4 KO victories
+   Very strong in clinch
^   Good body-lock TD’s
+   KO power
+/-Aggressive submission hunter
^   Often misses/losses position
+   Active scrambler
^   Will expose back in turtling
+   Excellent G&P/Elbows
–    Shown leg-lock vulnerabilities
–    Head high/hands low on entries
+   Volume & variety striker

Summary:

In my pick for the potential “Fight of the Night”, Thomas Almeida collides with Anthony Birchak. Almeida is a hot rising prospect from Brazil who embodies the classically aggressive “Chute Box” style. He’ll be facing his most well rounded opposition to date as he meets Birchak. Although coming from a wrestling base, Anthony shows a wild variety of techniques & aggression. This especially is apparent on the feet, where he keeps his opposition guessing from superman punches to clinch space, or fake shots into flying knees. However, the common thread here is that he keeps his head high and hands low on his entries. Favoring his right uppercut lead-ins, Anthony could particularly play into Almeida’s hands.

Thomas favors a lead/intercepting right hand of his own, which he uses to come over the top of oncoming attacks. Though Almeida’s willingness here has costed/exposed him to straight punches, Birchak’s wide open attack should prove less resistance for his accuracy. It is important to note that Thomas will turn his lead rights into counter set ups, as he leans heavily left/forward coming off his cross. This sets him up to come back hard with left hooks to the head & body. However, it’s in this high risk game that he also allows for his own counter vulnerabilities(seen in Pickett fight).

Though I give Almeida an overall edge standing, his willingness to go “toe-to-toe” makes Birchak’s KO power a live intangible in this fight. Not to mention Anthony’s shown durability & chin, you should not write this man off on the feet. That said, Birchak’s best chances will be by making this a gritty fight in clinch/grappling space. Almeida also shows improved TD defense & excellent get up abilities making the clinch the “Key Junction” in this fight. Should Birchak get Thomas down, I suspect he’ll try and test the Brazilian as we’ve seldom seen him grounded. However, I highly doubt we see any prolonged ground stanzas given each mans stylings.

Though possessing excellent ground striking & an aggressive sub game, Anthony will often make hasty/slightly technically deficient attempts that cost him position(even his back with his habit of turtling). Speaking of wrestling related habits, Birchak also shows to leave his legs for the taking in ground transitions(threatened/caught with leg-locks in last 4 of 4). Almeida also shows to threaten Heel Hooks in the scramble and whether he can catch Anthony or not, he should be able to use these opportunities to stand at the very least.

I actually like Birchak’s style & aggression for this fight, and I feel the odds are off as he’s a very live dog. But given the facts at play, I’ll be leaning toward the fight-to-fight improving prospect to get it done in his backyard. I cannot stress enough how close this fight actually is, and caution any plays for Almeida’s high price. That said, he is worth looking at for your high tier Fantasy picks given this ones promise for action. “When two Tigers fight, one losses but both end up maimed.” Expect high risk and high reward at it’s finest.

Official Pick: Almeida – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Almeida – KO round 1.


Alex Oliveira (12-3-1)

Poirier

vs.

Piotr Hallmann

Roy

CowboyOliveira1

Alex Oliveira (12-3-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’11” Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 77″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Joe Merrit (6-27-15)
  • Camp: TATA Fight Team (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   Pro Muay Thai experience
+   BJJ Blue Belt
+   8 KO victories
+   9 first round finishes
+   Strong in clinch
^   Looks for body-lock TD’s
+   Consistent back taker
+   Good counter striking
^   Accurate L. Hook – R. Hand
–    Lacks volume & urgency
+   Underrated counter-wrestling
+   Solid Chin/never stopped

Piotr2

Piotr Hallmann

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’9″ Age: 28 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
  • Last Fight: TKO loss / Magomed Mustafaev (6-20-15)
  • Camp: Gym Flamingo (Poland)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C

Supplemental info:
+   European LW Titles
+   7 KO victories
+   7 Submission wins
+   8 first round finishes
+   Physically strong & durable
+   Improved transitional wrestling
+   Good cage/clinch pressure
–    Heads dips on feints
–    Propensity to take damage
^   Shows good recoverability
+   Favors single-leg variations
+   Grinding top-game

Summary:

Once again in the deep Lightweight waters, Alex Oliveira meets Piotr Hallmann. With both men owning finish rates north of 80%, this one has some on-paper potential. Starting out on the feet, Hallmann will come out with consistent forward pressure. Favoring straight punches, he puts his strikes together well often finishing with chopping leg kicks. Piotr does however show defensive deficiencies, particularly when feinting his way inside. Piotr utilizes feints to set up strikes and keep his opponent guessing. In doing so, he has a tendency in over exposing his head by bringing it out and forward with his hands. This is where he traditionally has gotten hit and will have to be careful against a counter striker like Oliveira.

Alex will be more than happy to play Matador here, as he shows a natural ability to move in & out of range. Always looking to angle off, Oliveira wields an accurate left hook – right hand that Piotr will have to mind. With the larger and more proven arsenal, I have to give Alex the advantage standing. Piotr’s also the more defensively liable man given his stated issues(dropped in 3 of last 5). That being said, Hallmann is insanely tough and shows great recoverability. We’ve seen Piotr on many occasions outwork/out will opponents despite being hurt and tired.

Hallmann’s best chance of winning this fight is turning it into a grinding grappling affair. Showing a decent take down variety from the clinch, his single-legs should serve him best given Oliveira’s long frame. However, Alex shows underrated counter-wrestling and could find himself on top if Hallmann’s not careful. On the floor I give the overall scrambling & submission advantage to Oliveira, which means Piotr’s positional game will have to be on point. Hallmann’s showed progress in this part of his game when working with John Crouch & The MMA Lab.

Since departing with him, this will be Piotr’s second fight camp done in Thailand. With that said, I’m not sure what strides he’s made there or how it will translate(no slight intended). Should his transitional grappling falter, he could be subject to the active back-taking of Oliveira. From here, Alex could potentially steal control time should he not find a finish. In summation, this fight is so close it may come down to who fades first. With the new IV ban and both men’s admittance to struggle making Lightweight, fading could be a live intangible here. But with all things being equal, I’m siding with the hometown “Cowboy” to get the job done.

Official Pick: Oliveira – Decision

Official Outcome: Oliveira – KO round 3.

Gilbert Burns (10-0)

Poirier

vs.

Rashid Magomedov (18-1)

Roy

Gilbert1

Gilbert Burns (10-0)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’10” Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
  • Last Fight: Submission win / Alex Oliveira (3-21-15)
  • Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   BJJ World Champion
+   2nd Degree BJJ Black Belt
+   6 Submission wins
+   8 first round finishes
+   Aggressive cage pressure
^   Breaks off for strikes
+   Powerful right leg kick
+   Strong clinch
^   Variety of Trips/TD’s
–    Counter strike susceptibility
^   Strike retraction/exiting range
+/-Reverts to shell defense
+   Active & efficient passing
+   Excellent scrambling IQ
^   Dangerous submission variety

Rashid3

Rashid Magomedov (18-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70.5″
  • Last Fight: TKO win / Elias Silverio (12-20-14)
  • Camp: Gorec/ATT (Florida/Russia)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Good
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   M-1 WW Title Holder
+   Master of Sports: Boxing (Russia)
+   8 KO victories
+   5 first round finishes
+   Excellent lead left kicks
+   Accurate right hand
+   Good distance management
+   Variates levels in attacks
+   Strikes off breaks/transitions
+   Effective counter puncher
^   Times/accesses attacks well
–    Susceptible to inactivity
+   Good TD defense (92%)
+   Scrambles/gets up well
?   Questionable overall ground skills

Summary:

In what is my most anticipated bout of the evening, Lightweight prospects Gilbert Burns & Rashid Magomedov do battle. This will be each man’s toughest test to date, as they will attempt to make statements in the UFC’s deepest division. Given both men’s consistent approach & this stylistic “Striker vs. Grappler” match-up, this one is pretty straight forward. Rashid will look to use his efficient footwork & distance management to dictate the striking traffic. Here he shows to methodically breakdown & measure opponents with a solid jab and varying(head, body, and thigh) lead-leg kicking attacks. Though his left body kick arguably is his best weapon, it’s Magomedov’s counter punching abilities that will serve him best here.

Although Gilbert continues to demonstrate improvements under Henri Hooft, he shows counter availabilities on strike retractions and exiting range. This will be Rashid’s best chances to sway momentum given his accurate counter-right and check left-hook(which I particularly see giving Burns trouble). Once hit or outdone in exchanges, Gilbert often reverts to a “shell defense”. If this happens, Burns will have to mind Magomedov’s said body attacks. Though Rashid doesn’t show one punch KO power, you can visibly see the displeasure of his opponents once cleanly landing.

Despite showing a durable chin, I doubt Gilbert will play more than he has to here. I heavily suspect Burns to utilize his aggressive forward pressure into clinch/cage space. Though lacking the Sambo & Wrestling credentials of his Dagestan counter-parts, Magomedov maintains a 92% TD defense rate. That said, the times he’s been taken down was from the cage clinch(where he’s also shown control susceptibility). This particular position is a strong suit for Gilbert, and what I believe to be the “Key Junction” in this fight.

Should Burns get Magomedov down, it could be a very long(or short) night for the Dagestani. Although Rashid’s training partners at American Top Team rave about how hard he is to hold down, Gilbert’s top/transitional game is at another level. With both men young in their MMA careers, their fight-to-fight improvements will be the intangible factor at play. Regardless of the outcome, I see this being a close fight that should bare lessons & maturity for both men. That being said, I’m leaning toward the more well-rounded Blackzilians prospect to edge this one out. I caution plays heavily here, and instead recommend the classic “Avoid & Enjoy!”.

Official Pick: Burns – Decision

Official Outcome: Magomedov – Decision.

Fabio Maldonado (22-8)

Poirier

vs.

Corey Anderson (6-1)

Roy

Fabio1

Fabio Maldonado (22-8)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’1″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 75″
  • Last Fight: Decision loss / Quinton Jackson (4-25-15)
  • Camp:American Top Team (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
  • Risk Management: Poor
  • Overall Fight Grade: C

Supplemental info:
+   22-0 as Pro Boxer
+   Brown Belt BJJ
+   14 KO victories
+   6 first round finishes
+   Accurate shot selection
–    Hands low/Head upright
^   Propensity to take punishment
+/-Durable but weathered chin
+   Excellent tempo changing
–    Shows TD susceptibility
–    Ineffective from bottom

Anderson2

Corey Anderson (6-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’3″ Age: 26 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 79″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Jan Blachowicz (9-5-15)
  • Camp: Ricardo Almeida BJJ (New Jersey)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   2x All-American Wrestler
+   Blue Belt BJJ
+   Training w/Mark Henry & Co.
+   Good strike to TD transitions
+/-Short notice fight(3 weeks)
+   Accurate left hook
+   Consistent volume  & output
–    Lacks leg kick defense
–    Stationary head in pocket
+   Solid Double-leg TD’s
+   Active elbows/G&P

Summary:

In the first fight on the main card, Light Heavyweights Fabio Maldonado and Corey Anderson square off. Though taking this fight on 3 weeks notice, Anderson claims to have already been in shape and actively searching for a fight. Looking at each man’s styles & tendencies, their respective paths to victory are clear. Maldonado being the more predictable fighter, will look to keep it standing at Boxing range. From here, he plays possum in pocket exchanges using deceptive tempo changing to draw out brawls. This is where he’s most dangerous as he possesses accurate counters and momentum shifting body shots.

Corey will have to avoid the brawling and stick to his game if he wants to be victorious here. Working with Mark Henry & Frankie Edgar’s team, Anderson shows an ever improving transition game. From accurate volume punches to well executed Double-legs, Corey only gets better every time we see him at 26 yrs of age. I expect him to lean heavy on his transitional wrestling skills, especially given how their strengths & weaknesses line up. Fabio shows take down susceptibility with glaring deficiencies in his ground game. Corey’s best chances are exposing this early and sticking it/Maldonado like glue.

Fabio is traditionally a slow starter, and usually gives up the first round(losing 7 of 10 opening rounds in the UFC). However, Fabio does possess the heart & durability to mount comebacks should Corey falter. This looming threat in particular will be a stern mental test in Mr. Anderson’s young career. I’m a big fan of Fabio Maldonado as he certainly holds the intangibles/tools to upset here. But between the on-paper stylings to the trajectory of their careers, I see Corey taking this one. Though lacking shown killer instinct & KO Power, I’d expect a gritty decision over a stoppage.

Official Pick: Anderson – Decision

Official Outcome: Anderson – Decision.

Gleison Tibau (33-11)

vs.

Abel Trujillo (12-6)

Roy

Tibau3

Gleison Tibau (33-11)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
  • Last Fight: Submission loss / Tony Ferguson (2-28-15)
  • Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Good
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   Wrestling State Champ (Brazil)
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   12 first round finishes
+   12 Submission wins
+   92% TD defense
+   Physically strong & durable
+   Times Double-lgs well
+   Shows improved striking
+   Strong left cross
–    Will chase/expect himself
–    Right hand tends to drop
+   Neutralizing clinch game
+   5 RNC victories
+/-Gas tank bares watching
+/-Possible weathered chin

Abel4

Abel Trujillo (12-6)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’8″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
  • Last Fight: Submission loss / Tony Ferguson (12-6-14)
  • Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C

Supplemental info:
+   NAIA Collegiate Wrestler
+   5 KO victories
+   5 first round finishes
+   KO power/physically strong
+   Excellent knees to the body
–    Upright & aggressive striking
^   Opens up TD availability
–    Hands low/head high
^   Right hand availabilities
+   Strong ground & pound
+   Dangerous R. hand – L. hook
+/-Turtles out in scramble
^   Back taking vulnerabilities
–    Pace shows to fade
+   Durable Chin

Summary:

In this heavily muscled Lightweight affair, Gleison Tibau meets Abel Trujillo. With each man’s consistent styling, this fight breaks down similarly to a “Striker vs. Grappler” match up. Though an NAIA collegiate wrestler, Abel prefers to stand and impose his KO power. He does tend to keep his hands low and head high(especially in pocket exchanges) making him equally susceptible. However, Trujillo shows to have quite the durable chin making him dangerous here. As we’ve seen with past opponents who discover this opening, Abel will eat their best shots and make them pay for reaching too far.

Tibau shows a nice straight left and improved overall striking, but should avoid standing too long with Trujillo. Given both men’s defensive liabilities, exchanging hooks is essentially a dice roll. Gleason’s best chance in this fight is to lean on his grinding grappling style(something Trujillo has traditionally struggled with). Tibau also holds the key factor in that regard with his excellently timed double-leg take downs. This is not only his most efficient move, it’s also shown to be an effective counter to Able’s upright forward pressure.

Should Abel defend successfully and enter his own offensive clinch space, he does wield affective knees to the body that could pay dividends. However, Tibau possesses a strong & neutralizing clinch game that should negate this. It’s also rare that I give Tibau the gas tank edge in match-ups, but given Trujillo’s shown susceptibility to fade, I gotta slightly lean toward Gleison. His overall proven experience and consistent game plan should give him the edge. Although Abel clearly holds the power & ability to upset, if he fails early it could be a long night in Brazil.

Official Pick: Tibau – Decision

Official Outcome: Tibau – Submission round 1.

Johnny Case (21-4)

vs.

Yan Carbral (12-1)

 

Case1

Johnny Case (21-4)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’1″ Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 72.5″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Frank Trevino (6-13-15)
  • Camp: Power MMA (AZ)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: B-

Supplemental info:
+   Regional LW Titles
+   Wrestling Base
+   BJJ Purple Belt
+   14 first round finishes
+   15 KO victories
+   11 fight win streak
+   Excellent footwork & movement
^   Sets up strikes & TD’s
+   Strong hips/TD defense
+   Good scrambles/get ups
^   Uses butterfly guard well
+   Accurate right hand
+   Solid top game/G&P
^   Good hand/grip fighting

 

Yan4

Yan Carbral (12-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
  • Last Fight: Submission win / Naoyuki Kotani (10-25-14)
  • Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   TUF Brazil Alumn
+   BJJ World Champion
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   5 first round finishes
+   11 Submission wins
+   Active & effective passer
^   works for full/back mount
+   Good G&P shot selection
–    will succeed bottom
–    Hips elevate during passes
^   Space allows guard retention
+   Improving stand-up
^   Good right hand & power kick
–    Shows signs to fade

Summary:

In another potentially fun Lightweight affair, Johnny Case and Yan Cabral go head-to-head. Cabral is a talented BJJ World Champion coming out of the renown Nova Uniao. Here he has diligently worked on his MMA game and sharpened his striking up. On the feet, he shows his camp’s staple of Muay-Thai stylings. Though lacking overall volume, he shows improved defense, counter-rights, and offensive power kicks.

That said, he does not match up well with Case when it comes to standing and trading. Johnny uses excellent movement & footwork to dictate range, keeping his opponents at the end of his punches. He’s also shown an improved TD/counter TD game, in which he can smoothly transitions to. Though his athleticism translates well with his TD’s in open spaces, he’s shown TD availabilities in the clinch. This is Cabral’s best chance to get the fight in his strong suit.

On the ground and especially on top, Yan is most dangerous. Using good strike selections and a relentlessly active passing game, Cabral methodically will make his way to mount. Should he get here, he poses many submission threats and controls that can at the very least steal the round. However, in his largely “float & flow” top game, he tends to leave his hips elevated. Unlike a rookie who would do this mistakenly, Cabral uses this space to bait overcompensating defenses. For example, from half guard, he’ll elevate his hips in blatant effort to free his leg and pass to side control.

Most people from bottom will naturally try and use this space to get back into the fight. It’s here Yan uses his recently liberated leg to misdirect as he jumps to mount. That all said, Cabrals space baiting style has shown to be stifled as he’s faced UFC level competition. In watching his UFC bouts, opponents have been able to reverse & reclaim guard multiple times. For this reason, should he get Case grounded I don’t think he keeps him there long. Not only being an active scrambler, Johnny also has a very effective butterfly guard(which stylistically poses problems for Yan’s style).

These factors, coupled with Johnny’s ever improving counter wrestling should get him top-side on the majority of grappling exchanges. Here I can see his solid hand fighting and G&P causing fits for Cabral. Similar to his Nova Uniao counter parts, Yan possesses underrated counter wrestling. But with a lack of offensive shot pressure, I see Johnny Case dictating the “where” and “how” of this fight. Unless Yan can shift the momentum early and capitalize, Cases chances only increase given Yan’s shown susceptibility to fade.

Official Pick: Case – Decision

Official Outcome: Case – Unanimous Decision.


Clay Guida (32-13)

vs.

Thiago Tavares (19-6-1)

UFC on FOX: Guida v Hioki

Clay Guida (32-13)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’7″ Age: 33 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Robbie Peralta (4-4-15)
  • Camp:Jackson-Wink MMA (Nomad)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Good
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   Multiple Regional Titles
+   Wrestling Base
+   13 Submission wins
+   12 first round finishes
+   Scrambles well/Hard to control
+   Sporadic footwork & movement
^   Stifles opponents offense
+   Good distance management
+   Excellent cardio & conditioning
+   High pace/never tires
+   Strong cage grappling pressure
–    Leans head forward/over right side
^   Open to uppercuts & knees
–    Subject to fight avoidance
+   Good R. hand L. hook

MMA: UFC Fight Night 47-Tavares vs Peralta

Thiago Tavares (19-6-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’7″ Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70″
  • Last Fight: TKO loss / Brian Ortega (6-6-15)
  • Camp: Team Tavares (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   Multiple Regional Titles
+   Black Belt BJJ
+   13 Submission wins
+   8 first round finishes
+   Scrambles well
^   Always looks for back
+   Excellent top control
+   Favors Double-legs
+   Taken down 15/16 UFC opponents
+   Solid ground & pound
+   Active right hand
+   Good knees from clinch
–    Stopped in last 2 of 4
–    Possible weathered chin
+   Underrated Wrestling ability

Summary:

In this battle of long-time UFC veterans, Clay Guida collides with Thiago Tavares. Both men have acquired many miles throughout their respective careers, and any expectations on either man should be tempered as so. Given both fighters all-around style & activity, their current state of skill-sets & staying power will be tested. Though usually starting aggressively by establishing an “in your face” range, Tavares may tread more carefully given Guida’s consistent TD threats.

Clay shows an evolving sporadic footwork game in which he uses to dictate & disrupt distance. This method usually takes opponents out of their game, and(as we’ve seen in the latter of his career) can make for awkward stalemates standing. Guida has improved his feints which he’ll use to set up nice right hands & hooks. He does however have a tendency to lean too far forward/to the side on his feints and entries. This will increase the availability of Thiago’s hooks and knees(which he actively looks for in clinch space).

Tavares almost shows a mirror opposite in regards to standing vulnerabilities. Showing to block hooks well with his shell defense, Thiago struggles avoiding the straight punches. Luckily for him, Clay shows a lack of those specific punches in his attack. For those reasons I have to give the edge standing to Tavares. In the grappling department, Guida is more of a grinder, but both men show strong active top games. That said, it’s hard to find footage of either man consistently grounded, so don’t expect long floor stalemates.

Given each mans counter wrestling ability, expect most of the grappling to take place in the clinch battles & scrambles(especially against the fence). However, Tavares is an excellent back-taker, and should he hurt/establish position on Guida it could be trouble. Especially considering the RNC(rear naked choke) is Thiago’s favorite submission(4 finishes), and Guida owns 4 losses via this very technique. The biggest intangible in this fight is Guida himself. His said sporadic style makes this fight hard to call and easy to avoid. But with all things considered, I feel Tavares’s larger skill-set(with some help from the Brazilian crowd) should edge out the rounds and the overall fight.

Official Pick: Tavares – Decision

Official Outcome: Tavares – Submission round 1.

Kevin Souza (15-3)

vs.

Chas Skelly (14-1)

Kevin2

Kevin Souza (15-3)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 74″
  • Last Fight: KO win / Katsunori Kikuno (3-31-15)
  • Camp: DS Team (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C-

Supplemental info:
+   Jungle Fight Champion
+   14 KO victories
+   11 first round finishes
+   KO power/dangerous hands
+   Accurate left hook
^   Favors R. Cross body set-up
+   Good movements & feints
–    Keeps hands low
^   Looks to draw/bait counters
–    Counter right hand availability
–    Lead leg vulnerabilities
^   Leg kicks & single-leg grabs
–    TD availability/susceptible defense
+   This camp at Blackzilians
–    Defensive & inactive from bottom

UFC Fight Night: Soriano v Skelly

Chas Skelly (14-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 73.5″
  • Last Fight: TKO win / Jim Alers (2-14-15)
  • Camp: Team Takedown (Texas)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   NAIA All-American Wrestler
+   7 Submission victories
+   5 first round finishes
+   Excellent & effective scrambler
^   Always looks for the back
+   Good knees from clinch
+   Strong lead right hand
+   Shows competent leg-lock game
+   Physically & mentally strong
–    Hands drop off punches/exchanges
–    Left hand/guard low
^   Shows right hand availability
+   Strong TD’s from clinch
+   Durable chin/never stopped
+   Effectively/awkwardly enters space

Summary:

In another fun and classic styles match-up, Kevin Souza welcomes Chas Skelly to Brazil. Though his first fight overseas/in Brazil, Skelly’s mental toughness and stated preparation for this bout should negate this. Chas’s most challenging aspect of this fight will certainly be in the standing exchanges. Though working hard and showing improvement on his striking, Skelly tends to retract his hands low off punches and exchanges. Specifically, he keeps his left hand/standing guard low, opening up right hand opportunities.

This could be especially bad considering Kevin Souza wields a deadly right hand. In watching film on Souza it’s clear he leans heavily on his boxing skills, as he appears to structure his MMA game to support it. Kevin likes to keep a low stance(to increase TD defense) and generally low hands(to bait counter strikes). From here, he favors a lead right Cross body shot to further his effort of drawing out offense. Often he’ll throw this at a blatant half-speed in order to set up his dangerously accurate left hook. These deceptive speed changes are signs of a good striker, and the strong point of Kevin’s game.

That said, Chas Skelly’s shown pressure fighting style doesn’t suggest he’ll stay & play Souza’s game for long. Though not the prettiest of technique, Chas shows the power & ability to change the pace and course of the fight. Particularly, Chas has an accurate lead right hand which he doesn’t shy from in making his entries. This could play a big factor standing given Souza’s susceptibility to right/counter right hands(shown in the Eddiva fight). Though Skelly can overexpose himself leaning forward on entries, Souza’s low stance & lack of kicks/knees(for fear of TD’s) should provide an open lane for Chas to test his shots.

Though awkward, Skelly is overall effective in entries as he looks for single-leg & body-lock TD’s. I suspect he’ll get this fight to the floor given Souza’s vulnerable hips & overall rudimentary TD defense. Though Kevin has competency in using the cage, he shows to be largely defensive & ineffective from the bottom. Though I’m sure Kevin has been working very hard & improving this part of his game, as he’s spent a lot of time with the Blackzilians this camp. Those intangibles aside, I don’t see him on the same technical or competitive level as Skelly.

Superior wrestling & submission game aside, it’s Skelly’s scrambling ability that sets him apart. Always looking of take the back or to hit submissions in transition(of which he has a deep arsenal of) it’s hard to see Kevin making it out of the kitchen without being burned. If you’re looking for “high scoring finisher” for Fantasy MMA, Then your eyes are probably looking toward Souza. But unless Kevin catches Skelly with an intercepting “home run” shot, I’m fairly certain Skelly takes this and possible puts him away.

Official Pick: Skelly – Decision

Official Outcome: Skelly – Submission round 2.


Viscardi Andrade (17-6)

vs.

Gasan Umalatov (15-4-1)

Viscardi1

Viscardi Andrade (17-6)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 75″
  • Last Fight: Decision loss / Nico Musoke (2-15-14)
  • Camp: Gracie Fusion (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: D+

Supplemental info:
+   TUF Brazil Alumn
+   BJJ Champion(Black Belt)
+   8 first round finishes
+   6 Submission wins(5 RNC)
–    2 fights in 3 years
+   KO power/heavy hands
+   Explosive striking entries
+   Strong overhand right
–    Gets sloppy in pocket exchanges
–    Vulnerable when exiting range
+   Active & aggressive pace
^   Especially in top position
–    Gas tank bares watching
–    Susceptible to TD’s
+   Always looks to finish

Gasan1

Gasan Umalatov (15-4-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’11” Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 71″
  • Last Fight: SD loss / Cathal Pendred (10-4-14)
  • Camp: Fight Nights Team (Russia)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: D

Supplemental info:
+   Master of Sports: Wrestling (Russia)
+   Russian Grappling Champion
+   6 first round finishes
+   7 Submission wins
+   Strong clinch game
^   Favors “Double-unders” to TD’s
+   Good lead left hook
+   Shows kicking variety
+   Solid TD defense(89%)
^   Excellent hip adjustments
–    Subject to inactivity
–    Hands low/head open
–    Slips/leans heavy to right
+   Hard to hold down
–    Shows good chin/durability

Summary:

In Brazil’s final Fight Pass prelim, Viscardi Andrade meets Gasan Umalatov. Both men are coming off over a year each of inactivity making the intangible factor high of this fight. The possibility of this being a sloppy affair only strengthens when examining each man’s style. Though both hold heavy ground credentials, the’ve shown difficulty being effective at the higher/UFC level. I would like to say Viscardi’s aggressive transitional Jiu Jitsu style is more dangerous on the ground, but given Gasan’s solid clinch/TD defense(89% in UFC) and his neutralizing grappling style, I suspect this one to stay standing.

On the feet, I also feel Andrade is the more dangerous fighter, but he’s also the more defensively liable man. With an already low standing guard, Viscardi tends to get in wild exchanges. This in particular will be Gasan’s best chances given his counter punching style. However, he also keeps low hands(particularly his left side) which could open him up to Andrade’s best punch.(overhand right). The most troublesome  aspect of Gasan’s style is his propensity for inactivity, which in my mind gives an overall advantage to the more aggressive Andrade(especially in Brazil).

That said, Gasan’s lone UFC victory came in Brazil against the more experienced Paulo Thiago(a similarly styled fighter who also carries heavy fading potential). With both mens durability & styles I see a finish either way very unlikely. On paper I’d like to lean toward Andrade, but if he’s to win this one, he’ll likely have to out pace & out-fight Gassan for a hard three rounds(which can be hard to swallow given potential cardio issues). Not to mention Gassan shows a solid chin & conditioning he can use to outlast the Brazilian should he tire. When inactivity, aggression, and intangibles meet, it’s often a close & sloppy affair. I’d avoid all plays/Fantasy picks on this one.

Official Pick: Unamlatov – Decision

Official Outcome: Andrade – Unanimous Decision.

Pedro Munhoz (12-1

vs.

Jimmie Rivera (17-1)

MMA: UFC-TUF Brazil 3 Finale-Munhoz vs Hobar

Pedro Munhoz (12-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’6″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 65″
  • Last Fight: Submission win / Jerrod Sanders (10-4-14)
  • Camp: Blackhouse/Kings MMA (california)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Good
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   RFA Bantamweight Champion
+   2x No-Gi Brazil Champion
+   6x BJJ state champ (Brazil)
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   4 first round finishes
+   6 Submission wins(75%)
+   Good base/balance on top
+   Looks for Double-legs against cage
+   Strong body kicks & teeps
+   Powerful leg & head kicks
+   Accurate in close elbows
+   Excellent Guillotine(4 finishes)
+   Dangerous leg-lock transitions
+   Improved defense/head movement
+/-Will go to shell defense
+   Good in the scramble

Jimmie2

Jimmie Rivera (17-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’4″ Age: 26 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 68.5″
  • Last Fight: KO win / Marcus Brimiage (7-18-15)
  • Camp: Team Tiger Schulmann (New Jersey)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Good
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+   Ring of Combat Champion
+   King of the Cage Champion
+   Cage Fury Fighting Champion
+   3rd degree Black Black(Tiger Schulmann)
+   2 first round finishes
+   KO power/heavy hands
+   Mixes in body work well
^   Right hand-left hook
+   Effective right leg kick
+   Good distance management
+   Tight striking defense
+   Strong Cage/Clinch Pressure
+   Shows strong top-game/G&P
+   Consistent 2-3 punch combos
+   Catches & counters kicks well
?   Questionable overall ground game

Summary:

This next “Fight of the Night” candidate, is one the closest stylistic matches of the evening as Pedro Munhoz meets Jimmie Rivera. Thought different in styles, both men are aggressive forward moving strikers which should create for fun momentum swings. Rivera shows a disciplined kickboxing game favoring his hands, where as Munhoz is a Muay Thai stylist who leans more on kicks. Pedro has an excellent variety of leg/head kicks and body teeps. He likes to march forward with said attacks looking to get into clinch range where he has accurate in-close elbows.

Since training under Rafael Cordeiro (Kings MMA) he has shown fight-to-fight improvements in his striking, and I believe he has more weapons standing. that said, I expect distance control & defense being the difference on the feet. Despite showing much improved head movement, Pedro will still often revert to a shell defense. This traditionally opens up body shots, uppercuts, and rogue hooks in which Rivera wields plenty. Not to mention Jimmie’s propensity to throw these punches off kick-catch counters, Munhoz will have to be most careful here.

As far as distance management goes, Rivera shows a natural ability to stay just outside range while maintaining a constant offensive threat. This coupled with Jimmi’s forward pressure & pace could make it a difficult night for Pedro, especially if he doesn’t hurt Rivera/dictate the clinch. Though extensive ground footage on Jimmie is hard to come by(making him hard to value overall) the obvious on paper advantage goes to Munhoz given his ground base. If he can get on top he’ll be especially dangerous as he’s shown hard to shake off & dangerous in the transitions(hunting Guillotines/subs).

That being said, the clinch will also be the “Key Junction” in this fight. Both men show good TD defense, but the question will be if Rivera’s is good enough to stop Munhoz. Pedro has worked a lot on his wrestling with Kenny Johnson at Blackhouse, but given Rivera’s shown solid base, he’ll need more than his patent double-leg off the fence. This is a very hard match to pick with both men showing little weaknesses. However, I feel Rivera’s overall pressure, pace, and volume will make a slight difference. I’d caution plays here and instead sit back and “crack one open” in what is my official pick for Fight of the Night.

Official Pick: Rivera – Decision

Official Outcome: Rivera – Split Decision.

Matheus “Nicolau” Pereira (10-1-1)

vs.

Bruno “Korea” Rodrigues (4-0)

MatheusPereira

Matheus “Nicolau” Pereira (10-1-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’4″ Age: 22 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 67″
  • Last Fight: KO win / Derinaldo Silva (8-24-14)
  • Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: D+

Supplemental info:
+  TUF Brazil Alum
+   Strong ground & pound
^   Active in transitions
+   Good in scramble
+   Clinch trips/TD variety
–    Hands lower in exchanges
^   Shows right hand availability
+   Improved boxing
+   Intelligent top game

Korea2

Bruno “Korea” Rodrigues (4-0)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’6″ Age: 24 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 67″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Jafel Filho (8-24-14)
  • Camp: TATA Fight Team (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Poor to fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: D

Supplemental info:
+   TUF Brazil Alum
+   Training at ATT this camp
+   Diverse kicking angles
+   Accurate spin kicks
^   Spinning R. hook/side-kicks
–    Hands low/head high
–    Leans head forward/gives Guillotines
^   Takes damage/recovers well
+   Looks to get back to feet
?    Questionable overall ground skills

Summary:

In the evenings curtain jerker, TUF Brazil alum Bruno “Korea” Rodrigues meets Matheus “Nicolau” Pereira. From what footage I could gather on both men, this fight should breakdown pretty simply on paper. Bruno(although I could not confirm) shows to have a Tae Kwon Do base, favoring space to throw a variety of kicks. Though primarily switching stances for left power kicks, he fancies accurate spin hook kicks(to the head) and spinning side-kicks(to the body) from orthodox. However, his best option in this fight may be his right hand given Matheus’s defense. Thought showing fight-to-fight improvements in his overall striking, Matheus has shown to lower his hands  in exchanges opening up this particular punch.

Despite showing overall durability/recoverability, Nicolau has been dropped with this punch in victory & defeat. He’ll have to mind his overall defense when standing with Bruno. On the ground is where I feel Matheus has an advantage in this fight, making the clinch this matches “Key Junction”. Bruno shows athleticism in clinch space, but is overall defensive as he’s mostly fending off TD’s and trying to get back to his feet(in which he does a decent job of). However, Matheus also appears strong here, showing offensive knees & a variety of trips/body-lock TD’s. On the ground(especially on top) he shows an intelligent & aggressive transition game, where he uses ground & pound to open up passes & submissions.

Bruno’s best chance is utilizing his variety & conditioning to put on a high pressure/volume attack. In Matheus’s fight with Pedro Nobre he showed to struggle with this kind of attack. Should his aggression backfire and lead to TD’s, Rodrigues could be in for a long night. A lot of intangibles at play with little information, especially on their progresses made this past year. But with given footage & styles I’ll be leaning toward the grappling of Matheus to get it done here.

Official Pick: Pereira – Decision

Official Outcome: Pereira – Submission round 3.

Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Thomas Almeida

Low Tier Picks:

-Dan Henderson

Pieces for your parlay:

-Johnny Case
-Alex Oliveira
-Chas Skelly

Props worth looking at:

-Almeida vs. Birchak – inside the distance
-Chas Skelly by Submission
-Johnny Case – inside the distance

Fights to avoid:

-Guida vs.Tavares
-Burns vs. Magomedov
-Andrade vs. Umalatov

For the complete undercard analysis & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com



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