UFC Fight Night 74 Breakdown
by Daniel Tom
on Thursday, August 20th, 2015
No Comments
Max Holloway (13-3)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11”, Age: 23, Weight: 145 lbs, Reach: 69″
- Last Fight: Submission win / Cub Swanson (4/18/15)
- Camp: Gracie Tech / Hawaii Elite MMA (Ohau, Hawaii)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-Stance/kick boxing
- Risk Management: Excellent
- Overall Fight Grade: B+
Supplemental info:
+ Circles well offensively & defensively+ Dangerous attacks from both stances
– Keeps weight on lead leg = more vulnerable to leg kicks
+ Good cardio, gets stronger as fight endures
+ Good striking defense & head movement
+ Good chin/Never stopped
+ Great striking volume & variety
+ Can make adjustments mid fight/mid combo
+ Improved Grappling defense & TD defense(78% success in UFC)
? Overall ground skill level?
Charles Oliveira (20-4)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11”, Age: 25, Weight: 145 lbs, Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: Submission win / Nik Lentz (5/30/15)
- Camp: Macaco Gold Team Brazil (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: B
Supplemental info:
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Dangerous everywhere especially in transitions
+ Good leg kicks & left hook
+ Decent cardio & pace/Dangerous till the end of the fight
– Leaves head high, open to overhand rights specifically
? Slightly questionable chin (stopped twice in UFC)
+ Dangerous Submissions, Chains attacks impressively
+ Maintains good composure even when under fire
+/- Only 35% in UFC TD attempts but will pull guard effectively
Summary:
Max Holloway is getting better every time we see him, and right now he’s on a hell of a run(6-fight win streak). From offensive to defensive movement I see Max outclassing “DuBronx” on the feet. Oliveira who throws good leg kicks and has a decent left hook, tends to keep his head high and left guard slightly low. This will be especially bad if Max can establish his rhythm & right hand early. However, I believe Oliveira has the edge in the over all ground game, and as much as I could pontificate on how good he is there.. the real question is, Can he get this fight to the mat? On paper Holloway’s 78% successful TD defense to Oliveira’s 35% TD offense suggest it will be enough to keep the majority of this one standing. But as we’ve seen(most notably in his fight against Stephens) Oliveira has clever ways to pull guard & force ground fighting off brief clinches/transitions. That being said, I believe the footwork that makes Max’s striking so good also accentuates his TD Defense/availability to be taken down. This will open up Holloway’s round by round increasing volume & variety which should get him the victory if not a stoppage late in the fight.
Pick: Holloway
Neil Magny (15-4)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 28 Weight: 170 Reach: 80″
- Last Fight: Sub Loss/Damian Miai (8/1/15)
- Camp: Grudge Training Center (Denver, CO)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/ Volume Striking
- Risk management: Fair to Moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: B-
Supplemental info:
+ Good cardio & work rate
+ Never stopped by strikes/recovers well
+ Good offensive volume by angling off
+ Under rated wrestling/TD’s
+ Technical Grappler
– Will fight to opponents strong suit
? Mental status on short notice/last performance?
Erick Silva (18-5)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 170 Reach: 74″
- Last Fight: Sub win/Josh Koscheck (3/21/15)
- Camp: Team Nogueira/X-Gym (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch Stance/All over the place
- Risk Management: Poor
- Overall fight grade: C+
Supplemental info:
-/+ Shortest avg. fight time in UFC/Questionable cardio
+ Never submitted/Black Belt BJJ
-/+ 1-1 career fighting outside of Brazil
+ Explodes in & out dangerously on feet
– Struggles against grinding fighters/Grapplers
+ Great finishing instinct from all positions
– Breaks mentally & physically under consistent pressure
Summary:This is a tricky fight to breakdown because I feel that both fighters are mis valued on & off paper. When you really look at Silva’s record I’m pressed to see the hype on this kid coming to fruition. First of all, this “kid” is gonna be turning 32 compared to his opponent at 28 yrs. His biggest victory was Josh Koscheck who was on a 4 fight losing streak headed into their bout on short notice in Silva’s backyard of Brazil(a country he’s only fought outside of twice going 1-1) Don’t get me wrong, Erick Silva has incredible moments inside devastating transitions. The problem is those moments came during low level opposition, and the UFC didn’t do the young prospect any favors by sprinkling in stylistically unfavorable Top 10 match ups(Jon Fitch, Dong Hyun Kim, and Matt Brown). These jumps in competition levels were clearly too extreme for Silva being that not only did he lose these fights, he lost in devastating fashion. I believe these took premature miles off Silva mentally & physically and not a lot of people account for this. That being said, Silva has plenty of weapons that I think will be effective against Magny. He throws great left hooks and body kicks from the South paw stance, and has some nice spinning attacks from orthodox. These could hurt Magny and although Neil has never been stopped by KO, he has/can be hurt enough to fall into a Silva sub which a very likely outcome here.
The critisicm I have is that he only throws in singles & doubles with the occasional 3rd on standing combos. He also throws them with such physical and mental intent that when they don’t land or take out his opponent, we see Silva thoroughly break down after round 1. And as we’ve seen, Magny can get hurt early and still surmount big comebacks getting stronger and increasing in activity as the fight endures. I was a big fan of Magny’s latest run and don’t feel his resume quite represents the progress he’s made as a fighter but my worry for him here is his mental state. If you’re gonna get completely outclassed on the floor it might as well be to arguably MMA’s best Grappler Damian Miai. But in a fight where Magny looked mentally defeated before even starting what was a poor performance, makes me hesitate on viewing that fight as a condemnation of Neil Magny’s skills. My only other critique of Magny is that he has the preponsity to allow the fight to take place in his opponents strong suit. This is especially noticed when facing strong ground fighters, which has made many of Magny losses and even victories difficult to watch at times. If you believe Magny can make it out of the first round then his chances I feel double to win this fight. But given the reasons above I have to give a very, very slight edge to Silva overall getting it done early. If you are thinking of playing this fight all I can recommend is looking at Erick Silva by sub prop, the over, or Magny decision/round 3 if you feel he survives the storm.
Pick: Silva
Josh Burkman (27-11)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 72″
- Last Fight: Submission Loss/Dong Hyun Kim (5/23/15)
- Camp: The Pit Elevated (Salt Lake City, UT)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-Stance/All around striker
- Risk Management: Poor to fair
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplemental info:
+ Good chin/Never stopped
+ Very athletic/KO power
– Does not scramble/transition intelligently
? Submission defense questionable
+ Dangerous with all strikes in arsenal
Patrick Cote (21-8)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 35 Weight: 170 Reach: 71″
- Last Fight: Decision win/Joe Riggs (4/23/15)
- Camp: BTT Canada (Montreal, Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplemental info:
+ Never KO’d/Recovers well
+ Only lost once in Canada (Alan Belcher 2010)
+ Improved wrestling & Takedowns
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Applies good final minute pressure to win rounds
Summary:
Match ups like this can be hard to view, both are older fighters who have been active 12-15 yrs, but both have also maintained a notable durability. For me, this fight comes down to: can Burkman out volume & technique Cote on the feet while making intelligent decisions when he needs too? We’ve seen Cote struggle with superior Grapplers/Ground fighters but I don’t see Josh fitting that bill. If anyone has the edge in not only KO power but also chin, it’s Burkman. Not to mention the natural gifts and pure physical & mental toughness of a Josh Burkman with his back against the wall is something to factor in. But I do believe Cote is durrable enough and more importantly, he applies a more intellegent in-fight approach at this advanced stage of his career. I think that this, coupled with Cote’s conservative-style volume and knack for ending rounds with TD’s & ground control will earn him the decision here. I’m a huge Burkman fan but in my opinion Cote’s one of the more appealing live dogs on this card.
Pick: Cote
Chad Laprise (10-0)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
- Last Fight: Decision Win/Bryan Barberena (4/25/15)
- Camp: Adrenaline MMA/Tristar Gym (Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Good
- Overall Fight Grade: B
Supplemental info:
+ Disciplined kickboxing approach
+ Puts together combos very well
+ Scrambles back to feet well from gaurd
– Lacks high level competition
+ Shows a technically conservative attacking style
+ Cuts angles well offensively & defensively
+ Underrated/Improved TD’s
– Despite winning, Faded in last fight
Francisco Trinaldo (17-4)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
- Last Fight: Split Decision Win/ Norman Parke (5/30/15)
- Camp: Evolucao Thai (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw/Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplemental info:
+ KO power/Physically strong athlete
+ Shows improved technique in striking combos
+ Strong top game/Ground and pound
+ Faced top opposition/UFC veteran
+ BJJ Brown belt
+ Will always grind out positions if allowed
+ Showing fight to fight improvements despite age
– Gas tank inconsistent and bares watching
Summary:
Trinaldo has faced harder opposition and is much more experienced. His heart alone has kept him in fights, got him out of bad spots, and has even won him close decisions. He’s yet to be stopped but I have a hard time seeing the 36 yr. old getting the “W” here. Despite actually adding to his game in his advanced age, I feel Laprise will be too much for him. The undefeated Tristar talent has a speed, technique, and even a volume/aggression advantage over the Brazilian. Laprise impressively & consistently owns the black octagon line that runs just inside the cage keeping his opponents at constant & limited retreat. Despite not having the best showing in his last fight against Bryan Barbarena, Chad’s overall game gets better every time we see him. Never count out the heart & natural abilities of Francisco Trinaldo but I see Laprise getting his hand raised at the end of this one.
Pick: Laprise
Oliver Aubin-Mercier (6-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
- Last Fight: Submission Win/David Michaud (4/23/15)
- Camp: H20 MMA/Tristar Gym (Montreal, Candada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: B-
Supplemental info:
+ Canadian National Judo Team(Black Belt)
+ Good left hand & left power kick
+ Good clinch pressure & intellegence
+ Manages distance on the feet well
– Does not move head off of combos
^ Leaves himself open to counter strikes
+ All wins via submission
+ High level training partners/camp
+ Good TD variety from the clinch
Tony Sims (12-2)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
- Last Fight: KO Win/Steve Montgomery (6/27/15)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Colorado)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance/Boxing
- Risk Management: Good
- Overall Fight Grade: B
Supplemental info:
+ 7 time state boxing champion
+ KO power/Heavy hands
+ Wrestling background
+ Great footwork/always switching & stalking
+ All wins via stoppage
+ Good TD’s in the open & off combos
+ Purple Belt BJJ
-/+ Fighting on 3 weeks notice
+ On active win streak including short notice fights
Summary:
Aubin-Mercier is looking better every time we see him in the cage. I really like his in fight IQ, especially when he can get the fight to where he wants which is primarily using his clinch game to take the fight to the floor. But Oliver has shown to struggle when he can’t manage the striking distance or get the fight on the mat. He’s also been hurt by par to sub par strikers, and I believe Tony Sims spells trouble for him. I believe Sims skill levels are more dangerous than anyone Oliver has fought on his record. Tony has excellent foot work in which he uses to control/disrupt distances, setting up TD’s, and switching stances within to set up devestating punches. Aubin-Mercier also has a tendency of not moving his head off strikes & combos which will make him vulnerable to Sims power shots. This is in my opinion the best dog play of the card, and with his 100% finish rate in victory, he may not be a bad candidate for your roster in Fantasy Fighting.
Pick: Sims
Maryna Moroz (6-0)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 23 Weight: 115 lbs Reach: 67″
- Last Fight: Submission win/Joanne Calderwood (4/1/15)
- Camp: YK Promotion (Ukraine)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Boxing
- Risk Management: Fair to poor
- Overall Fight Grade: C+
Supplemental info:
+ Finished every opponent
+ 5 wins via armbar
+ Former Ukraine National Boxing Team
+ Good right hand & left kick
Valerie Letourneau (7-3)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 32 Weight: 115 lbs Reach: 68″
- Last Fight: Decision win/Jessica Rakoczy (4/25/15)
- Camp: American Top Team (Coconut Creek, Florida)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
- Overall Fight Grade: C-
Supplemental info:
+/- All 3 loses to top competition
+ High level training partners/camp
+ Solid striking combos/technically proficient
? Overall ground skills?
Summary:
Valerie is a very tough and skilled veteran. She trains with good partners at American Top Team, but I believe Maryna is a young prospect on her way up. I think Moroz will be able to get this fight to the ground by TD’s/Guard pulls. There I believe Moroz’s aggressive submission game will overwhelm Valerie, who in her last bout showed to struggle against a lower level opponent who should not have made it a ground fight. As far as on the feet, Maryna has a solid right hand that she’s not afraid of following up on. This is the same punch that Valerie has shown vulnerability too in past fights. I’m siding with the youth on this one, especially by submission.
Pick: Moroz
Daniel Jolly (5-0)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: ?
- Last Fight: Decision Win/Josh Foster (5/3/14)
- Camp: Rubicon FS/Austin Kickboxing Academy (Texas)
- Stance/Striking Style: ?
- Risk Management: ?
- Overall Fight Grade: ?
Supplemental info:
+ Undefeated Fighter
-/+ Low activity (avg. 1 fight a yr.)
– Padded record/low level competition
Misha Cirkunov (9-2)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 28 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: ?
- Last Fight: Submission Win/Shaun Asher (5/22/15)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture (Ontario, Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: ?
- Risk Management: ?
- Overall Fight Grade: ?
Supplemental info:
+ Good training partners & gym
+ Good fight activity
+ Decent opposition/variety of finishes
Summary:Not a lot of information/footage on these guys so not much too say. Going with the younger, more active fighter who was originally scheduled and not coming in on short notice. Cirkunov’s ground heavy style should be enough to shut out the opposition here.
Pick: Cirkunov
Yves Jabouin (20-10)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 36 Weight: 145 Reach: 68″
- Last Fight: TKO loss/Thomas Almeida (4/25/15)
- Camp: Tristar Gym (Montreal, Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair to poor
- Overall Fight Grade: C-
Supplemental info:
– Multiple losses by ground & pound
+ Good footwork & angles
+ Disciplined striker
? Chin? (stopped 5 times/3-5 in latest run)
+ Underrated TD’s
+ Former Amateur Boxing Champ
+ Nice left switch kicks with combinations
Felipe Arantes (16-7-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age:27 Weight: 145 Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: Decision Loss/Andre Fili 10/25/14
- Camp: Chute Boxe (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Poor
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplemental info:
+ Strong ground & pound
– Can get flustered on the feet & give opprotunities
+ Fights in explosions & intervals
+ Good chin/never stopped
+ Decent TD’s against the cage
+ Tae Kwon Do & Judo background
? Cardio for 3 hard rounds bares watching
Summary:
Arantes fights can be difficult to call because despite solid skill sets on the ground & feet, he fights in intervals of exploding forward/reversing position or succeeding/inviting points to be scored on him when frustrated on the feet. This has made his wins and loses much closer contests than they need to be. All that said, if he comes in shape he should have more than enough to win and even stop the veteran Jabouin. Yves 36, is getting up there in years & miles especially for a lighter weight fighter. And if Jabouin finds himself on his back he could be stopped given that Arantes strongest part of his game is Yves most vulnerable. It’s gonna be hard to say who shows and who doesn’t in this fight and for that reason I’m avoiding plays on it.
Pick: Jabouin
Nikita Krylov (18-4)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 23 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 77.6″
- Last Fight: Submission win/ Stanislav Nedkov (1/24/15)
- Camp: Vale Tudo MMA (Keiv, Ukraine)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair to Poor
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplemental info:
+ 19 first round finishes
? Never been the distance/Cardio untested
+ Strong variety of weapons on the feet/good work rate
– Takes damage & risks position when he attacks
– Lacks quality wins/struggles with good opposition
Marcos Rogerio De Lima (13-2-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 75″
- Last Fight: TKO win/ Igor Pokrajac (12/20/14)
- Camp: o11 MMA Team (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Fair
- Overall Fight Grade: C-
Supplemental info:
+ KO Power (10 wins via stoppage)
-/+ Only been the distance 3 times
+ Decent counter wrestling
+ Very good leg kicks
– Lacks quality wins/struggles with good opposition
Summary:
For obvious reasons this is a tough one to call. Both have a long list of first round finishes but both also lack quality wins and struggle when facing mid to above average opposition. I like Nikita’s work rate and the weapons he posseses can take out or wear down DeLima, but I wouldn’t be surprised if DeLima can halt Krylov’s offense with strong leg kicks & KO counter hooks. I’m gonna side with the youth’s chances with work rate & variety to get this done, but make no mistake.. this is a gun fight.
Pick: Krylov
Sam Stout (20-11-1)
Staple Info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
- Last Fight: KO loss/ Ross Pearson (3/14/15)
- Camp: Team Tompkins (London,Ontario)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: C-
Supplement info:
+ Good kickboxing technique
+ Underrated TD defense
– Chin in question (KO’d last 2 fights)
+ KO power (but only 1 win by KO in 7 yrs)
? No longer training with high level partners/Gym
Frankie Perez (9-2)
Staple Info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: TKO loss/ Johnny Case (1/18/15)
- Camp: Ricardo Almeida Jiu Jitsu (New Jersey)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplement info:
+ Good accuracy & shot selection on the feet
– Propensity to end up on bottom when engaging for TD’s
+ Dangerous in transition game
– Not shown to be effective from Guard/Bottom
+ High level training partners & coaching
Summary:
These guys both are coming off TKO/KO stoppages that I’m sure mentally took their toll. I think this fight comes down to who’s likely to recover better and who’s likely to repeat performances. In this case I’ll be siding with the younger less shop worn fighter in Perez, who’s also had a little more time off to recover. I’m a Sam Stout fan but these past few, nearing many years have not shown favorable nor promising for Sam. It’d be nice to see him leave the sport on a win and his all around skills are very under rated. All that said, I still gotta side with Perez here. He has failed and ended up on bottom when engaging his better opponents in grappling, and that may not cost him the fight here but it could cost him a round. But if he keeps with his good foot work & head movement, picking his shots consistently, then Frankie can very much cruise to a decision here getting him back on track.
Pick: Perez
Chris Beal (10-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 30 weight: 125 lbs Reach: 68.5″
- Last Fight: Decision loss/Neil Seery (1/24/15)
- Camp: Knuckle Head Boxing (Ventura, CA)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
- Overall Fight Grade: C+
Supplemental info:
+ Very strong physically/Heavy hands
+ Good striking fundementals
+ Good base in top control
– Inactive & lack of technique on bottom
? Questionable cardio at new weight class of 125
Chris Kelades (8-2)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 68″
- Last Fight: Submission loss/ Ray Borg (2/14/15)
- Camp: FIT Plus (Nova Scotia, Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
- Overall Fight Grade: C
Supplemental info:
+ Good heart & endurance
– A little wild with his striking at distance/mid range entrances
+ Strong Jiu Jitsu/Grappling base
– Propensity to be taken down
Summary:
If Beal can keep this fight standing & control range or on the ground maintain a conservative top game, it’s his fight to win. But if he has a bad weight cut or has minor-major mental hiccups, the strong hearted Kaledus can take advantage of the potential inactivity of Beal, especially on the ground where his best chances of winning the fight are. Despite being in Canada, if this fight goes to the judges it could favor Beal with his fight style & history of favorable decisions.
Pick: Beal
Shane Campbell (11-3)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
- Last Fight: TKO Loss/John Makdessi (4/25/15)
- Camp: Toshido MMA (British Columbia, Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Poor
- Overall Fight Grade: C-
Supplemental info:
+ 2 titles in Muay Thai & Kickboxing
+ Good variety of power kicks
+ Good activity & shot selection offensively
– vulnerable to overhands & hook punches
– active off back but lack of top game/sweeps
– Has difficulty making the weight/cardio bares watching
Elias Silverio (11-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 28 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: TKO Loss/ Rashid Magomedov (12/20/14)
- Camp: Team Silverio (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Fair to moderate
- Overall Fight Grade: B-
Supplemental info:
+ Great variety of strikes & shot selection on feet
+ Physically strong/KO power
– Has not shown to adapt/change game plan well
+ Good ground IQ & strong top game/passes
+ Underrated offensive wrestling
+ Big for weight class, keeps good diet
Summary:
I like Campbells shot selection & activity on the feet. But if he fails to control the range or hurt Elias with his kicks, then Silverio will have plenty of opprotunity to unleash powerful counters, and utilize his wrestling to secure top position. Which is where I feel he has his biggest advantage in this fight is on top. You can see the results of training with Damian Miai by watching Silverio’s powerful Jiu Jitsu top game, slicing & passing defenses. I think he’s had a good amount of time to recover from his loss and will get back on track here.
