Summary:

Headlining UFC Chicago is a battle of bantamweight contenders as the former champion Holly Holm takes on the division’s dark horse Valentina Shevchenko. Coming off a disappointing title defense earlier this year, Holly Holm will attempt to get back on track with a win over an accoladed striker. A resident of Peru and native of Kyrgyzstan, Valentina Shevchenko was born into a martial arts family. A practitioner since the age of four, Shevchenko has amassed multiple titles in K-1 & the IFMA(an organization where she fought & beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk 3-times), but this will be by far her highest profile fight to date.

A headlining fight on FOX aside, Holly Holm is one of the few fighters who’s accolades in striking can contend with Shevchenko’s. An inspirational relationship between Holm and her head coach Mike Winkeljohn, we have steadily seen Holly grow alongside the talented stable at Jackson-Wink MMA. Being long, athletic, and disciplined have been the staples in Holly’s boxing game that have shown to carry over well to her MMA game. The addition of being able to use kicks(as she originally started in kickboxing) have only helped in flourishing her abilities to finish combinations and fights alike. Holly’s kicks are also a key player in her distance management, something I suspect she will need in full-force for this contest.

Although I am officially going with the underdog, I have no illusions of how or why Holly Holm is the favorite coming in. Aside from Jackson’s being a renown “super gym”, they do a particularly good job of implementing round-winning ethics. As one of their most disciplined fighters, Holly has had little issue cementing close rounds or closing out dominant ones with measured flurries. In facing a traditionally slow starter like Shevchenko(a carry over common from traditional Muay Thai), Holm’s disciplined output & distance management will likely earn her the edge early, justifying her projected chances according to Vegas odds. However, Holly’s ultra-disciplined approach can be a double-edged sword as I attempt to state why I see Shevchenko having success.

It can be dangerous to over value one name and overlook the other in this matchup, as the limited sample size of budding female divisions serve as a reminder that styles make fights. Although this is Valentina’s biggest stage to date, she will be the most dangerous striker Holly has faced in MMA by a long shot. Although both women carry impressive accolades, Shevchenko has arguably faced a higher level of opposition as she has competed worldwide consistently for the last decade. The quiet factor(and possible theme) for me in this fight, is the rare matchup of two southpaw strikers.

Although a common striking stereotype is that orthodox stances struggle against southpaws, a southpaw fighting another southpaw presents it own unique factors. With the premise of this generalization being that southpaws are rarer to find in the practice rooms, Orthodox fighters are often not getting the consistent reps needed to be optimal against southpaws. For this reason, southpaws can also be befuddled when running into a fellow lefty, due to the fact most have inherently based their games off orthodox stance opposition. That said, I am sure both fighters will be aptly prepared for what lies ahead.

Holm, will obviously have the on-paper edge in regards to preparation, as she will surely have a healthy amount of southpaw looks at Jackson-Wink MMA. Although splitting her camps between her home of Peru and Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand, Shevchenko’s best training partner will be her sister Antonina Shevchenko. Another product of Valentina’s fighting family, Antonina is also a multiple-time Muay Thai champion who fights southpaw and is of similar height & stature to Holm. That said, Holly Holm’s athleticism and movement can be difficult to duplicate.

Even though Holm’s efficiency and discipline are impressive, she is a bit predictable in the plays that she runs. A consistency of patterns that she carried over from boxing, Holm will usually circle to her left to reset, and move to her right when attempting to achieve attack angles. Supported by her previously mentioned athletic attributes, Holly’s understanding of subtle technics(like her outside-foot-awareness) has made her successful against what has mostly been orthodox fighters. In reseting/circling to the left, Holly gets her opposition to follow as she quickly shifts the other way striking on the exit.

When doing so, Holm does a good job of getting her head offline as she throws her patent cross down the center. That said, Holly’s tendency to exit exchanges towards her opponents weak side now gets flipped around when facing a southpaw. With Holm’s right side being Shevchenko’s power side, Holly will have to be careful overcommitting given Valentina’s accurate cross-counters and Thai kicks. With that in mind, I suspect we will see more lead leg side kicks from Holly as these traditionally give way to her left sided retreats/exits.

Although resetting to the left should serve Holm well on paper, the perceived “weak side” of the southpaw stance is an area I feel Shevchenko is especially dangerous within. When her previous opponents have tried hard to achieve attack angles around her lead foot, Shevchenko has had no problem showing off her Tae Kwon Do base as she throws spin back & hook kicks with surprising accuracy. More specifically, Valentina’s best punch is her check right hook as I feel that will be the strike to look for in this fight. Although Holm operates at safe distances and displays a solid sense within the pocket, she often conducts business with her head exposed.

For the reasons listed above, Holly has been able to get away with this side effect to her style thus far. However, Holm’s most notable loss in boxing was due to her exposures within the pocket. In her first fight Ann Sophie Mathis, we saw a slightly more aggressive version of Holly as she classically leaped in & out to score. Although there were many punches in the lead-up to Holm’s defeat, the right hook that set things off stood out the most to me as Holly was caught rolling out to her left with her head unprotected. Upon further film study, I found that an unprotected head was a common theme for Holly when exiting and entering exchanges. Though Holm came back to defeat Mathis, we saw Holly’s point scoring style personified as she edged out rounds and avoided exchanges.

Holm also showed a tendency to lunge heavily in that rematch, which to me, was a sign of subconscious caution to a hard-hitting threat. That said, lunging heavily forward can often expose your head further and make you easier to counter. We saw a less accoladed striker in Raquel Pennington eventually pick up on Holly’s patterns, as Raquel was able to land counter right hands with regularity by the third round. Against a solid counter fighter like Shevchenko, it will be interesting to see if Holly can make the proper adjustments through the course of five rounds.

Although I do not expect much grappling from either striker, the clinch is where the x-factors lie as takedowns may be a key to solidifying rounds. Holly Holm surprised us all with the extent of her clinch game when she successfully fended off an aggressive Ronda Rousey last year. Displaying a solid positional awareness, Holly works well with under-hooks or uses deep over-hooks as she frames her opponents hips with her forearms to prevent base disruption. However, when her opponent was able to get in on her hips or achieve a body lock(ala Miesha Tate), Holm struggled defensively. Although Holly has other clinch tools that she has carried over from boxing, I do not feel they are as applicable to the grappling intricacies of our sport in comparison to Muay Thai for example. More specifically, traditional Muay Thai, an area in which Shevchenko’s style embodies the most.

A devastating striking art with an often overlooked emphasis on clinch wrestling, Shevchenko embraced & excelled in the grappling aspects of Muay Thai as it became a huge key to her success. When most of Valentina’s opponents were attempting to achieve traditional Thai plums, Shevchenko would opt for almost Greco Roman-like body locks. Killing hip space with immediacy, Shevchenko would also shut down her opponents leverage to strike or counter-grapple. Once achieving the body lock, Valentina instinctually slides beneath her opponents arms and around to their backs. From here, Shevchenko would show her mean streak with hard knees into her opponents glutes & thighs that parlayed into smooth debasing takedowns that she used to punctuate her presence.

Although I give Shevchenko an edge in the overall grappling, she shows a drastic skills-gap in regards to her bottom game. Even though Amanda Nunes is one of the more dangerous fighters in that division to have on top of you, we saw a lack of get-up technics and options employed by Shevchenko. With Holly sharing similar criticisms in her last fight, the fighter who ends up in top position will likely have the advantage in grappling scenarios. Ultimately, I do not see a lot of mat time as I feel this contest will be decided on the feet. Though it may start slow with each fighter preferring to counter, I suspect things to stay competitive through the fights duration. For that reason, I recommend caution in playing this one as I feel the Kyrgyzstani finds her counter shots before the final bell.

Official Pick: Shevchenko – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Shevchenko – Decision

Summary:

Serving as the newly minted co-main event is a fantastic lightweight fight between Edson Barboza and Gilbert Melendez. A fun stylistic matchup of two of the division’s most exciting fighters, this battle will also serve as a crucial crossroads for both men. Still in search of the one title that got away, Gilbert Melendez will look to surmount another run at the top as he returns from a one-year suspension. With age & activity being the intangibles for Gilbert on paper, the former Strikeforce champion looks to be in great shape heading into this bout.

Standing on the other side to welcome Melendez back is Edson Barboza, who despite recently going 2-2 in his last four fights is arguably showing an upswing in trajectory. Making the permanent move to New Jersey, Edson is now training full-time with Mark Henry & company as he attempts to take his career to the next level. Storming onto the scene with thunderous leg kicks, Edson became renown for his initial impressions as he has only added to his arsenal in subsequent years. However, since doing his training camps with Mark Henry, we have steadily seen Barboza’s boxing game come to life.

Edson always possessed an underrated counter right-hand(seen early in his Cerrone fight) but has since developed his left hand. Throwing his jab with much more efficiency, it is the improvements of his check left hook that may serve him well in this fight. Using the check hook to punch out of exchanges or catch opponents coming in, I suspect it may come in handy against an engaging Gilbert Melendez. Predominantly a pressure fighter for the better part of his career, you would have to imagine that Melendez will look to dust off said skills for this particular styles fight.

As much as Edson Barboza has added to his arsenal, the key to finding success against him has always remained the same, pressure. Requiring space to operate his striking regiments, the Brazilian has seemingly struggled against pressure fighters who can wrestle(Jamie Varner, Danny Castillo, Michael Johnson, and Tony Ferguson). As one of the more renown pressure-fighters in the division’s history, Gilbert Melendez certainly has the style and skills to win this fight. However, he will truly have to spawn the Gilbert of old and abandon the brakes for this battle.

In comparison to his career in Japan or the early days in Strikeforce, we have seen Melendez mature into a more measured pressure fighter. Refining his boxing and overall game with his Nor-Cal collective, we have seen Gilbert use his pressure to initiate engagements and open up counters. Utilizing his length and left-hand behind feints, Melendez commits himself inside with his eyes open as he often looks for his right hook variations. Mixing in a healthy amount of uppercuts, Gilbert will also work to the body with impunity.

That said, Melendez’s inconsistent fight activity has seemingly lead to inconsistencies in his pace and performances. Assuming Gilbert comes in with the proper intent and tools for this task, the jab will be a key player in his approach. Whether Gilbert is looking to set up a shot or his patent right-hand, the jab will likely support his efforts in either realm. The jab will also play a role for Barboza, as this will be his first line of defense and the connecting piece to his offensive options. Considering that solid jabs have disrupted Edson in his fight with Cerrone as well as Gilbert when facing Thomson, it will be interesting to see who establishes their striking-lanes first.

Aside from the on-paper advantages, I believe Barboza’s edge will come to life given Gilbert’s boxing based stance. Pressuring forward with heavy feints and jabs, Melendez tends to keep his weight loaded on his front leg. Traditionally, this has made Melendez susceptible to leg kicks, as we have seen 4 of 5 of his last opponents consistently score and do damage there. Now facing the most devastating leg kicker in the organization, Melendez’s legs may be vulnerable whenever in range. Considering the right-handed counters of Gilbert, expect Edson to continue his trend of inside leg kicks to quell this threat and disrupt his opponents base.

Not only leg-kicks but also body kicks have been one of the more common culprits landed on Gilbert. Keeping his guard high, Melendez seemingly attracts body-kicks as he makes a conscious effort to catch them and counter. Although he has scored most of his takedowns in the open this way, he will undoubtedly be playing with fire against Edson. Ultimately, Gilbert’s success will hinge on his ability to push the pace as pressure-fighting will be the key factor in this fight.

If he can ground Barboza early, it will likely be a good sign for Gilbert. However, it will not be a certainty as Edson is hard to hold down. The Brazilian bears an underrated butterfly guard that he utilizes well to get back to his feet. Whether he is against the fence or working from a modified guard, I imagine Edson has only continued to fill in these holes working with Frankie Edgar & company.

As much as I am a fan of Gilbert Melendez, the Santa Ana native’s lack of activity makes it hard to have confidence in what we will see from him. And given Edson’s subtle signs of an upswing, I suspect the momentum will be on his side as I feel the oddsmakers are correct in making him a slight favorite. Bet lightly and enjoy heavily, as this match up has fight-of-the-night potential written all over it.

Official Pick: Barboza – Decision

Official Outcome: Barboza – Decision

Summary:

In a heavyweight showdown, Francis Ngannou welcomes Bojan Mihajlovic to the UFC. Storming onto the scene last December with a devastating knockout win over Henrique da Silva, this will now be Ngannou’s third bout with the organization as he once again faces a debutant. Despite starting his career off with three consecutive losses, Bojan Mihajlovic has not dropped a bout in the subsequent decade since. Stepping up to the big stage, we will likely see where the Serbian stands.

Like many fighters entering from foreign mixed martial arts markets, Bojan lacks the quality opponents on his resume to grasp an accurate assessment of his skills. The thing about these matchups is that Mihajlovic may also be unaware of his operating level, as we have seen many fighters come in undefeated only to succumb to the pressures of their first UFC experience. Despite a big task ahead in facing Ngannou, Mihajlovic possesses certain skills that may serve him well in this contest.

Although undersized for the division at a stout 5’11”, Mihajlovic is deceptively quick as he puts his frame to good use. Prodding with flicking jabs and hard low kicks, Bojan will look to close the distance whenever possible. Whether he is coming directly into the clinch or making his way in off a failed shot, Mihajlovic’s intentions are clear as he shows some wrestling sensibilities. Though wielding a decent double-leg, Bojan scores most of his takedowns from the clinch as he works well with body locks. That said, the tall Frenchman he is facing will also prove to be a tall task to take down.

Despite the slightly upright operating posture of Francis, the Cameroon native keeps a good sense of his space as he manages distance well. Demonstrating a deceptive athleticism & agility within his hips, Ngannou has shown the ability inside and out of the Octagon to defend or return to his base. Coupled with the addition of under-hook fundamentals, we have seen Francis improve in his ability to defend takedowns and get back to his feet.

Accustom to his opposition trying to take him down, Ngannou has spent the early portion of much of his fights having to defend from the fence. Spreading out his 6’4″ frame into a wide-base, Ngannou keeps calm and collected as he demonstrates surprising muscular endurance despite his build. If Bojan fails to ground Francis or establish himself early, then he will likely be relegated to striking on the outside ranges. A place where he will be at an on-paper disadvantage, I doubt things will bode well for Bojan if forced to fight on Francis’ terms.

Despite his solid jab and low kicks, Mijahlovic keeps his standing guard slightly low as he retracts his strikes even lower. Though able to get away with such habits at the lower-level, this could cost Bojan dearly against a striker like Ngannou. Despite the imposing presence and knockout power, Ngannou refreshingly relies on neither to get the job done. Whether throwing straight or variating his patent up-jabs & shovel-hooks, Francis conducts traffic off of his left hand. Keeping active and accurate with it, most of the danger will come from that side as it is the common conduit to his combinations.

The most impressive thing about Ngannou is the fact that he has only competed in combat sports for three years. In such time, the Frenchman has shown maturity and development that is very uncommon as I am interested to see his progressions. Whereas his counterpart, Mihajlovic, has been competing for four times as long showing little consistency or developments outside of winning. With this being a heavyweight contest between two men who are still largely unproven, I suggest strong caution in any big plays here. However, given Ngannou’s success in thwarting the takedowns of Curtis Blaydes(NCAA Champion) in his last contest, I suspect he will be able to do the same here as he finds the finish before the final horn.

Official Pick: Ngannou – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Ngannou – TKO (round 1)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX is a fantastic female fight as Felice Herrig squares off against Kailin Curran. A veteran of both kickboxing and MMA, Felice Herrig is once again tasked with turning away another young contender. Fighting in her home state of Illinois, Felice will undoubtedly be motivated to get back on track with a win here. Getting her first taste of the big stage, the young Hawaiian Kailin Curran will look to capitalize on this spot as she attempts to show further improvements.

Like many fighters who enter the UFC early and undefeated, Kailin Curran was fastly tested as she ultimately dropped her first two fights despite being competitive in both(and even dominating one until getting caught). Though brief mental lapses may have lead to those defeats, it is hardly a condemnation of Curran’s skills as she is still a young and developing fighter. Under the care of Ryan Parsons, Kailin has trained with many high-level camps like Kings MMA and the former Reign Training Center. Now training with the likes of Jason Parillo at the RVCA Gym, it will be interesting to see what improvements Curran has made to her striking and other areas.

With last years FOX card in Newark being the last time we saw Felice, the question for Herrig is whether or not the year-plus layoff will produce positives or negatives. Training in her usual camp of Team Curran(Jeff Curran) in Illinois, Felice looks to have brought in former foe Carla Esparza amongst others to help her prepare for this battle. Looking in tip-top shape in the lead-up, Herrig will need to have her condition dialed-in in what will likely be a three round war.

Despite Herrig being the more accoladed striker, I feel Curran may have a slight edge standing. With both ladies displaying durable chins, I suspect volume will be a key factor in this fight as I feel Kailin throws with more volume and consistency. Not only that, but I also believe that the Hawaiian may prove to be the better puncher. Pulling and returning her jabs & crosses preternaturally, I only suspect Curran’s striking prowess has improved under the tutelage of Jason Parillo. Not to mention having the luxury of training partners like Cris Cyborg, I suspect Kailin will be prepared to trade with Felice in this fight.

If Felice elects to participate in striking range, she will need to have her patent kicking game on point. Herrig throws a good variety of kicks but often lacks the punches and set-ups to get her momentum going. That said, Kailin Curran will have to be careful when throwing her kicks Felice’s way. Like many Muay Thai practitioners who transfer to MMA, Herrig has a knack for catching kicks and countering as she has scored many takedowns in this fashion. Although not known for her top control, Herrig is more than proficient enough to eat some control time and edge out what will likely be close rounds.

That said, I feel Felice will be most dangerous from the bottom in this particular matchup. Possessing superb leg dexterity(another carry-over from kickboxing), Felice has deceptive submission and guard retention abilities. With these attributes earning Herrig three armbar victories, that will likely be Curran’s red flag in this fight given her troubles in the past. Not only was Kailin defeated with an armbar in a fight she was dominating, but similar submission catches(although only caught once) have been a theme thus far in her career.

Although I am sure Curran is getting solid training as she continues to improve, she has a tendency to overstay her welcome when operating from certain top positions. Now being on top is, of course, a good thing in MMA, however, there are some principles of technics that have shown to cost Curran in the past. Whether inside her opponents guards or settling in off advances, Kailin tends to float a bit too much in limbo as opposed to playing all-the-way-in or out. Though this habit is common amongst grapplers of all levels, it has also cost Curran close-calls in both victory and defeat.

With the sample size of women’s MMA making it one of the more traditionally harder divisions to decipher, this seems to be a straight forward crossroads matchup. However, similar to what the oddsmakers suggest, I also feel this is closer to a “pick’em” fight as I recommend strong caution in playing this one. That said, I suspect Kailin’s striking volume and scrambling ability will make the difference in edging out tight rounds, as I feel the Hawaiian will earn a hard fought decision.

Official Pick: Curran – Decision

Official Outcome: Herrig – Submission (round 1)

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Saenz def. Wineland
• Elkins def. Pepey
• Usman def. Yakovlev
• Prazeres def. Cottrell
• Oliveira def. Moontasri
• Sullivan def. Urbina
• Alers def. Knight
• Henrique def. Smolyakov

For the complete analysis of future & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com