Summary:

Serving as the newly minted main event for UFC 206, Max Holloway will take on Anthony Pettis for an interim featherweight title. With the UFC long having a holdup atop the featherweight division, the organization has seemingly stripped Conor McGregor of his belt, which will now go to Jose Aldo who awaits this fight’s winner. For Max Holloway, this is a chance to cement his status amongst the top of the division as he is riding the wave of a 9-fight winning streak. For Anthony Pettis, this is a chance to fast-track his goal of holding gold in two divisions as this will be the former champion’s second fight at 145-pounds.

As their on-paper stylings would suggest, I suspect the majority of this fight will be on the feet. Although both men are highly skilled strikers, I believe the former lightweight champ should have a slight edge within the kicking realm. Coming from a Tae Kwon Do base, Anthony Pettis has been able to bring in a spectacular array of kicking attacks into the cage. Balancing out his traditional stylings under the tutelage of Duke Roufus, we have seen Pettis round out his attacks with punches and feints to help set up his fight-ending kicks. As flashy as some of the kicks on his highlight reel may be, Anthony’s body kick is probably his best tool as he can unload them from either stance.

Although Anthony’s ability to read and react to his opposition is impressive, he will have all he can handle in trying to get a beat on the consistently moving Hawaiian. Showing solid striking and footwork fundamentals since coming onto the scene, we saw Max Holloway turn a corner in his Cub Swanson fight. Now demonstrating technical evolutions from fight-to-fight, Holloway is embracing his creativity and range in his movements and attacks. Subtly switching stances as he shifts laterally, Max will deceptively draw his opposition into reacting as he executes attacks that catch them off guard. Showing superb timing, Holloway will usually wait until his opposition is in mid-motion before attacking and angling off safely.

Despite Pettis being the more dangerous fighter at range, I feel that Holloway’s movement and ability to dictate distance may compromise the former champion’s shot selections. Max is also the more consistent striker both offensively and off of the counter as I see him having the advantage at boxing range. That said, the Hawaiian will need to mind the counter cross from Pettis, as that is his most accurate punch. Making measurable improvements to his boxing in the past few years, Anthony’s counter right-hand has been his most consistent weapon in both victory and defeat. Although Holloway is seldom caught clean or hurt, we saw him hit by hard counter crosses from Ricardo Lamas in his last bout as this may be worth looking out for in this fight.

Even though I do not see much of this match happening on the floor, I believe Anthony will be the man with more motive to take it there as he has the on-paper advantages. Long known for his attacks off of his back, Pettis has worked diligently on his wrestling with Izi Martinez in effort combat the top-pressure at the upper echelon of the sport. And though many may focus on Anthony’s shortcomings in said department, he has made measurable improvements to his overall wrestling fundamentals. In fact, the former champ has a decent reactive shot that may be worth watching for in this fight. That said, he will not have an easy time taking down Holloway as the Hawaiian has only been taken down 3-times in the past 3-years.

Considering how often the Hawaiian competes, that stat is especially impressive as Holloway only seems to get better from fight-to-fight. Not only does Max show the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows an excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the break as this will be worth watching for in this fight. Pettis will also have to mind his behaviors off of failed shot attempts given what we saw in Max’s last time out. Having his takedown defense tested by one of the best grapplers in the division, Holloway would successfully thwart the shots of Lamas while re-wrestling his way to ride positions.

Where this road of potential possibilities begins to split for me is when looking at Pettis’ head movement. Although Anthony has made improvements in slipping at the end of combos, he still shows the defensive tendencies from his past. Coming from his aforementioned traditional martial arts base, Pettis tends to rely on his fleet-of-foot reactions and trunk movement to manage his defensive distancing. Against faster fighters like Rafael Dos Anjos or Edson Barboza, these tendencies translated into the former champion taking more shots than usual. Not only will Pettis have another fast-fighter on his hands in Holloway, but the Hawaiian is also longer with arguably better footwork as I see him dictating the terms of the action. Couple that with the accuracy of Max’s shot selection, and I ultimately see the Hawaiian stacking up the volume en route to a statement-making performance.

Official Pick: Holloway – Decision

Official Outcome: Holloway – TKO (round 3)

Summary:

The co-main event in Toronto is a war of welterweight gunslingers as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone takes on Matt “The Immortal” Brown. Originally scheduled to face Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 205, Cowboy Cerrone was unfortunately pulled off the legendary card when his opponent failed to make weight. Now drawing a big slot against a name opponent, Cowboy will seek to make a statement to the division’s top-5 with a win here. Coming off the first TKO loss of his career, Matt Brown will look to get back on the horse as he attempts to halt Cerrone’s rise.

In the striking department, both fighter’s skills point to a potential Muay Thai maelstrom. With each man having unique advantages over each other, Cowboy should have the edge when striking at distance. Embracing his frame and kickboxing base, Cerrone does an excellent job of using teeps and legs kicks at range. Mixing in punches appropriately, Cowboy will draw out his opposition’s defenses to set up fight-ending head kicks. When his opponent tries to close-in on Cerrone’s preferred range, Cowboy will intercept them with accurate check-knees up the middle.

Despite these techniques working well against lighter weight fighters, Donald would need to upgrade his game to counter the pressure from bigger, stronger welterweights, and he did just that. Enter Brandon Gibson, the quiet storm in the striking department at Jackson-Wink MMA, as his help has shown in this recent iteration of Cerrone. Moving his head and torso offline and at angles, Cowboy will unload his punches with different mechanics than before–as he now has more of a presence inside the pocket. Often punching his way out of exchanges with his left-hook, Cerrone will feed his newfound flow it into his patent head kicks as his arsenal is much more symbiotic.

Even though Donald is showing a solid technical-renaissance, he will still need to mind the areas that have traditionally plagued him. Despite Cowboy’s improvements to his head movement, he still tends to get upright as this will typically open him up to overhands and body shots. Although Brown lacks the liver kicks that have shown to stop Cowboy in the past, he does have a left hook that he likes to throw in succession as he variates it well to the body. Matt also has an overhand right worth watching for, as we have seen him blitz and dust his opposition in the opening stanzas.

Despite Brown’s power and technique not being amongst the divisions’ best, his ability to pressure is second to none as I see that being a key factor for him in this fight. Willing to walk through a wood chipper, I suspect Brown will not be waiting around for Cowboy to find his rhythm and test his combos. Not only that, but I also feel that Brown will have his biggest striking edge inside the clinch. Treating the clinch like a butcher shop, Brown will utilize all the angles on his elbows to slice away at any available pieces of flesh his opponent leaves open. Mixing in knees, punches, and slick trips, Brown to could turn the tide of this fight in his direction should Cowboy allow him to overstay his welcome.

Even though Cerrone’s clinch game does not have as much of an offensive presence, he does a deceptively good job of maintaining his base and stifling his opponent as he looks to strike off the breaks. Even if Brown is successful in grounding Cowboy, I do not think ground stanzas will last long as I see Cerrone having the advantage. Despite Brown’s multi-faceted ground game, his aggressive eagerness has often cost him dominant positions as well as submission losses. Against a submission specialist like Cerrone who makes his money in transition, I do not like the Immortal’s odds when tangling with Cowboy. Considering that Cerrone has an underrated reactive shot, we could expect to see him explore possibilities on the floor.

From slow starts to southpaw pressure-fighters, Cerrone has conquered many of his traditional tropes since moving to welterweight. And although he has already topped two pressure fighters in Patrick Cote and Rick Story, he will be put to the ultimate test of pressure against a marauding Matt Brown. If Brown can close the distance and create the chaotic environment he thrives in, then we may see an eye-opening upset in the early rounds. That said, it is hard to side with Brown’s chances of not getting burned when seeing that he has been dropped or stunned in 6 of his last 8-fights. Ultimately, I see Cowboy coming out on top of what should be an entertaining gun fight.

Official Pick: Cerrone – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Cerrone – KO (round 3)

Summary:

In a featherweight fight that has hardcore fans salivating, Cub Swanson squares off with Doo Ho Choi. Coming off of a three-round thriller with Tatsuya Kawajiri earlier this year, Cub Swanson seeks to add to his winning streak as he attempts another run toward the top. Standing in Cub’s way will be the fast-rising Doo Ho Choi. One of the most touted prospects to come out of the Asian scene in quite some time, Choi has met all expectations and more since coming to the big show. With getting his wish to fight Cub Swanson, the Korean Super Boy will now face his most dangerous test to date.

Starting off on the feet is an interesting predicament between two skilled-strikers. One man prefers to bait offense and counter, whereas the other likes to use offense to open up counter-opportunities of his own. One of the organization’s more prolific offensive artists, Swanson shows all the attributes you would want in an action-fighter. Although his movements may seem sporadic at times, there is a method to Cub’s madness as he seldom moves against momentum.

Whether he is shifting his stance to throw liver kicks from southpaw or darting off of his favored lead right-hand, Swanson is ultimately looking to initiate the reactions that will allow for his opposition to open themselves up inadvertently. Working with Yoel Diaz for many years, Swanson’s boxing influence shines through in his follow-up punches as he variates brilliantly to the body. That said, I feel that Swanson’s kicking arsenal may come in handy with this particular matchup.

Accurately prodding with inside and outside leg kicks, Cub could certainly test the checking abilities of his South Korean counterpart. That said, he will, of course, need to be weary of the counters Choi keeps at the ready. However, the Korean Super Boy often leans heavily to his left side so that he can stay loaded for his preferred choices of counter shots. This tendency could put Choi in line with Swanson’s attacks from that side, as Cub throws a cartwheel kick off his offensive flow with surprising fluidity.

But, as impressive as Swanson’s arsenal can be, his reliance on being the speedier man could get him burned against a counter striker of this caliber. An unassuming, smirking assassin, Choi operates his overall game with preternatural instincts that are downright spooky. Despite staying close for conservative standards, Choi keeps a measured distance as he hangs just outside of range. Moving deceptively well, Choi maintains his feet beneath him as he will utilize feints to draw out his opposition’s attacks.

Only needing but one or two bites to get a beat on his opponent’s timing, the South Korean will then accurately intercept his oncoming foe with jab-cross-hook variations. Should Choi successfully counter Cub early, we could see him disrupt Swanson’s rhythm and seriously shift the momentum of this match. Even though Cub should have the on-paper advantage on the floor being the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, I doubt we will see much ground time given each fighter’s trends.

Despite Swanson arguably having more of a motive to take this party to the floor, he has only clocked 7-takedown attempts in his last 22-rounds of fighting. Cub will also have to be careful when shooting for takedowns given that Choi is exceptional at intercepting his opposition with knees and uppercuts. The South Korean also displays deceptively effective defense when thwarting takedowns, as I suspect he may make things difficult for Swanson.

Demonstrating an awareness of his opposition’s takedown range and intentions, Choi keeps his hips at the ready as he possesses a strong sprawl. Floating from the top position opportunistically, the South Korean maintains a solid sense of things as he seldom commits himself unnecessarily. Utilizing subtle but effective grip-fighting, Choi disrupts his opposition’s attempts to re-wrestle while dropping bombs from a comfortable cruising altitude(as seen in his fight with Nagakura). Even when the Korean Super Boy is taken down, Choi has demonstrated in past bouts that he is no slouch from here.

Displaying a solid transition game, Choi will intelligently chain together his submission attempts into sweeps or standups. Showing off deceptively strong hips, the Korean pops up with the immediacy and ease of a wrestler. In his last bout, we saw Choi effectively utilize the cage to get back to his feet against a veteran fighter, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Thiago Tavares. With the young Korean’s fight-to-fight improvements, ground stanzas will certainly be interesting, even if they are brief. Considering both men’s nature to scramble and stand, I do not expect grappling exchanges to last long no matter who ends up on top.

Where this road of potential chaos becomes clearer to me is when looking at Swanson’s tendencies. Even when at his best, Cub tends to keep his hands low as he relies heavily upon his speed and reaction times. These instincts have cost Cub in the form of strikes and scorecards when facing technically proficient strikers who have a good grasp of timing(Holloway, Edgar, & Stephens). Against a fighter that is possibly more precise and powerful than those aforementioned, Swanson could very well find himself in the fire as I see the Korean Super boy scoring big.

Official Pick: Choi – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Swanson – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

In an interesting fight in the middleweight division, Tim Kennedy makes his return against Kelvin Gastelum. Originally slated to face Rashad Evans at UFC 205, medical issues forced the former champion off the card, leaving Kennedy without a dance partner in New York. With Toronto following suit in denying Evans a license, Kelvin Gastelum will now step up to his new home of 185-pounds. After failing to make weight at UFC 205, Kelvin will be looking to take a step closer to redeeming himself with a big win against America’s finest.

In one of the most intangible filled fights on the card, it can be tricky when trying to get a beat on how this one will unfold. Although I do agree with Kennedy being favored to win, I feel that Kelvin is more than a live dog here. With weight issues plaguing the majority of his UFC career, it is easy to get lost in the negative narrative of Gastelum when initially assessing his chances in a fight. However, when looking closer at his actual career, Kelvin’s only losses are two split decision’s to top competition that could have gone his way. One of which was to the current champion, Tyron Woodley, in a fight where Kelvin was sick and hospitalized within 24-hours of the event.

That said, Tim Kennedy may be one of his toughest tests stylistically in quite some time. A strong middleweight who is not deterred easily from his tasks, Tim may be able to put Kelvin in positions we have yet to see him in inside of the Octagon. A tactical fighter, Tim will tailor his approach to his opponent as the former sniper stays focused on his objectives. Considering he has a ground advantage on paper, I suspect we may see Kennedy look for takedowns early and often as he did in his fights with Michael Bisping and Melvin Manhoef. Considering that Kelvin has been taken down in 5 of his last 7-fights, it is hard to deny Tim’s chances in grounding Gastelum.

However, Kelvin may not be as easy to takedown as the statistics suggest. Although Tim is not shy in committing himself to his shots off punches, he is most effective when he can get his opposition to the cage. In Gastelum’s fight with Neil Magny, we saw Kelvin surprisingly taken down from the fence multiple times in their match. Even though Magny’s long frame undoubtedly helped his leverage, Neil was ultimately able to work takedowns off of high under-hooks in a similar fashion that Tim likes to score. That said, we saw Kelvin show improvements to this area in his last fight with Johny Hendricks.

Utilizing high and tight over-hooks, Gastelum was able to thwart Johny’s attempts against the fence. Using his free hand to disrupt grips and retain under-hooks, Kelvin was able to reverse position and separate on multiple occasions. Although it will be interesting to see if he can stuff Tim’s attempts, it will be even more interesting if Tim can get Gastelum down. With both men scrambling well, ground stanzas should be fun as each fighter consistently hustles for position. That said, Kennedy has a smothering top game that could prove to be the antithesis for Kelvin’s style of grappling.

Whether Tim is hanging heavy in half-guard or grapevining into his mounts, he leaves little room for rebudle as his transitions are air-tight. Regardless of who is on bottom, both men tend to turtle out when standing, which makes things intriguing when you consider that they both are proficient back takers. Although I can see Tim winning a dogfight within this realm, it is on the feet where my opinions begin to sway. Despite Kennedy being able to do a little bit of everything standing up, he tends to revert to fighting along the outside of the cage when his initial attacks fail.

Although Kennedy is accurate with his counter shots, hanging out along the outside of the fence could ultimately play into Kelvin’s hand as he does his best work when his opponents are in this space. An inherent pressure-fighter, we have recently started to see Gastelum’s skills come to fruition under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA. Having a history of transforming southpaw grapplers into dangerous pressure-fighting strikers, Cordeiro has seemingly imparted the same knowledge to Kelvin as he now incorporates crushing kicks to his already potent punches.

Staying in the Southern California scene, we have also seen Kelvin make measurable improvements to his boxing and footwork. In his last fight, we saw Gastelum pivot more off of his right hand which allowed him take superior angles and get the jump on Johny. In fact, I feel Kelvin’s right hand will be a key factor in this fight. Tim’s last two losses come to hands of southpaws who were both able to drop him with leaping right hooks. Considering that a leaping right hook is Kelvin’s most consistent and accurate strike, this could be a shot worth looking for on the feet.

That said, the biggest intangible in the striking department will be the potential improvements of Kennedy. Although two years out of competition is troublesome no matter who you are, Tim Kennedy has not exactly been inactive as his background certainly gives him some competitive edges. Tim has also spent a lot of time under the tutelage of Brandon Gibson over the years, which I feel is also worth noting. However, if Kennedy cannot establish himself early on the feet or floor, Kelvin’s output and pressure could turn into a runaway train that earns him scorecards standing. Ultimately, I recommend caution in playing what is one of the harder fights to call on the card.
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Official Pick: Gastelum – Decision

Official Outcome: Gastelum – KO (round 3)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card is a firefight as the returning Jordan Mein welcomes Emil Meek to the UFC. Despite his young age, Jordan Mein has been competing in professional MMA since high school as the young gun comes from a fighting family. Retiring after a loss to Thiago Alves almost 2-years ago, Mein will make his return to a mainstage spot as he attempts another ascension up the ranks. Seeking to spoil the homecoming is Emil Meek. Despite Meek being a year older with a fourth of Mein’s experience, the Nordic fighter has stormed the European scene as he now sets his sights on the UFC.

Coming off of a 45-second dusting of former UFC welterweight Rousimar Palhares, Meek made himself known to many as that win put him on the international radar. Although his record is lacking in name value, Emil carries raw, but impressive abilities to go along with a particular type of confidence that draws comparison to Conor McGregor. Despite the ferocity and aggression that often opens up his finishes, Emil shows a surprising amount of technique in his boxing. Prodding with jabs just outside of range, Meek is not shy in exploding forward with cross-hook variations.

Changing his level on feints as well as attacks, Emil demonstrates some solid head movement when he is not going in for the kill. Even when throwing his crosses from the rear, Meek rolls fluidly off of them which typically clears his head from check hook counters. Considering who Emil is facing, these head movements will be crucial for the aggressively advancing Nordic fighter. Although Mein is known for his hooks, it is the diversity in his setups that make him so dangerous. Often switching to southpaw, Mein throws accurate check-hooks from both stances as he pivots appropriately. Given Emil’s pressure-fighting sensibilities, I suspect Mein to lean heavily on his crafty counters in this match.

Never bashful in going to the body, Jordan will variate his hooks with impunity when he senses his opponent is hurt. Even though the Canadian has an aggressive killer instinct and approach, Mein’s technical craft and experience has seemingly molded him into a stick-and-move stylist. Typically prefering to play just outside of range, Jordan will steadily apply pressure as he looks to establish his timing and rhythm. That said, Jordan has traditionally struggled with maintaining his process when pitted against fighters who are not afraid to pressure, as he will need to keep his cool as the likely Matador in this matchup.

Where the striking exchanges get even more interesting is when entering the clinch space. Despite both fighters being effective with similar weapons, Mein is much more technical as he wields wicked elbows that will be worth watching for anytime these two get close. Although more brutish, Emil is equally effective in close range with his dirty boxing and knees. Getting creative with angles, Meek showed us in his last fight that he can get it done with elbows as well. With the clinch fighting also being difficult to forecast, I can only promise that this storm will be violent for as long as it lasts.

If Mein fails to put out the appropriate fires on the feet, we may see him explore his on-paper advantages on the floor. Even though Jordan seldom shoots for takedowns, he does work well from a head-outside single as he shows competent chains from that position. That said, those type of takedowns typically exposes the neck, which in turn could open up a Guillotine choke. Although there is not a huge sample-size on Meek’s ground game, he seems to be strong from the front headlock as he owns Guillotine wins on his professional and amateur record.

Although I do not usually side with the fighter who is making their UFC debut, Meek shows the type of intangibles in his attitude and abilities that play potent parts in a successful debut. Not only that, but I feel that Emil also presents a stylistic matchup that has traditionally troubled Mein. Despite Jordan being much more technically refined, shaking off ring rust and reestablishing rhythm can be tough to do when facing a pressure-fighting madman with crushing power. If you are considering a play on this fight, then I recommend you sprinkle lightly as this shootout can go either way.

Official Pick: Meek – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Meek – Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Cirkunov def. Krylov
• Dober def. Aubin-Mercier
• Letourneau def. Pereira
• Gagnon def. Lopez
• Vannata def. Makdessi
• Khabilov def. Saggo
• Makovsky def. Ortiz

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