Summary:

The main event in Manchester features an epic rematch for the middleweight title as Michael Bisping defends the crown from Dan Henderson. The word “epic” can often be overused, but it is highly appropriate when describing the two roads that each man took to get here.

Michael Bisping, who many had written off to challenge for the title, has had one the best years of his career at 37-years of age. Now, he will not only get to defend his newfound championship belt–but also get a chance to avenge one of the most notorious knockout losses in UFC history, as he gets another crack at Dan Henderson.

Despite having one of the most accoladed careers you could ask for in MMA, Dan Henderson finds himself on the other side of the coin coming into his second meeting with the Count. Although his support from fans and fighters have not dwindled, Dan’s mileage has finally started to show as he is the oldest fighter on the roster at 46 years of age.

Numbers aside, they say that power is the last to go–as I give my take on how these two stack up this time around. Spending most of his storied career sharpening the effectiveness of his forward pressure, we have steadily seen Dan round out his approach. From his left-handed paws–to his patent inside leg kick, Henderson has kept his setups consistent for his right-hand. This forward-pressure approach worked great for Dan in their first meeting, especially when you consider the way Michael used to move.

Coming from more of a kickboxing base, Bisping was still in the process of learning how to sit down on his punches as he had a tendency to keep upright, particularly on his exits. Although his then habit of circling to the left did not help Michael, it was his overall defensive posture that made him so vulnerable. Since then, we have seen Bisping improve upon his hand and head positioning. Though his high-output approach still makes him hittable by nature, we have seen Michael minimize these scenarios since joining forces with Jason Parillo.

A striking coach with strong boxing roots, Parillo has helped many great fighters grow, including the lightweight legend, BJ Penn. In turn, we now see Michael move much more fluidly with his footwork as it fuels his pulls & returns. Applying angles appropriately, Bisping will also change his level more, which opens up his options and makes him harder to hit. What is most impressive about the Englishmen’s renaissance is the fact that he is largely doing it with one eye. Shortly after a loss to Vitor Belfort, Bisping sustained an eye injury that required surgery, albeit not corrective.

Although initially struggling in his return fight against Tim Kennedy, Michael has since shown a heightened urgency and awareness in regards to exiting exchanges. Much better about retracting his right hand, Bisping will also look to exit safely from right crosses or clean-up hitting hooks. Due in large part to his angle awareness and foot placement, Michael is most successful when punching his way out of the exchanges, as that is how he was able to drop the likes of Luke Rockhold and Anderson Silva.

However, Bisping will still often pull back from exchanges without punching, and in turn exposing his head. Even if you go back to Bisping’s wins over Dolloway and Leites, you will see that this was apparent during the times he was in trouble. Considering that the counter game has deceptively been the quiet improvements to Henderson’s offense, these spaces will likely be the American’s best path to victory. Since Dan will more than likely be on the wrong side of the speed equation, his feints will be crucial in opening up his opportunities.

A key in equalizing speed advantages, feints are also useful in drawing out “stick & move” fighters, especially ones who have a habit of preemptively parrying. Although Henderson has shown to incorporate feints since his most recent return to the UFC, he has struggled to find success with them as Dan’s tightness tends to turn them into preemptive plots that give away his attacks. We saw multiple examples of this in his fights with Shogun Rua and Vitor Belfort, as both men were most successful when catching Henderson coming in.

That said, we may see Henderson look to flip the script and counter Bisping. As we saw in his fights with Tim Boetsch and Hector Lombard, Dan’s “H-Bomb” is just as effective moving backward, as this will be the looming threat to Bisping’s onslaughts. Although right hands have been the common culprit in 6/8 of Dan’s recently sustained knockdowns(due to his low lead hand), the left-hand of Bisping may be his biggest problem. Naturally leaning heavily to his right side, Henderson also has a tendency to lean dangerously forward on his approach.

With these two habits in mind, Dan could very well run into Michael’s jabs and hooks. “Left Hook Larry” moniker aside, Bisping’s left-hook has developed into one of his more accurate shots as it often punctuates exchanges. That said, Dan has an underrated left hook of his own that often follows failed right hands. When it comes to the grappling advantages, I would have to side with the former U.S. Olympian on paper. However, Bisping may have a quiet edge here that could unfold depending on the circumstances.

As Henderson has gotten older, we have seen him call upon his wrestling less and less. In fact, we have only seen the two-time Olympic team member offensively wrestle when hurt or threatened in the heat of exchanges. Considering how difficult Bisping’s movement can be when it comes to setting up a shot, I would not be surprised to see seldom attempts from Dan. That said, Bisping has an improved reactive double-leg that could see the light of day if executed on an overwhelmed Henderson.

Although the middle ground known as the clinch game should also be an on-paper edge for Dan, the real action will take place on the separation as each man diligently strikes off of the breaks. Should Dan get the Englishmen grounded, I am not certain he will be able to keep him down given Bisping’s butterfly and under-hook acumen. Ultimately, I see this fight’s fate being decided on the feet and off the breaks, where I believe the sharper man will thrive. Even though I will be rooting for Dan Henderson to win the one trophy missing from his case, I suspect that Michael Bisping will finally have his revenge in Manchester.

Official Pick: Bisping – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Bisping – Decision

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC 204 features a middleweight fight between Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi. Coming off a tough loss to Jacare Souza back in May, the long-tenured Belfort will look to once again ride into glory. Ahead of the Brazilian legend is a tough task as he draws MMA’s lone wolf, Gegard Mousasi. A veteran that has also seen it all, Mousasi will attempt to score another scalp as he seeks title contention.

At this stage of his twenty-year-plus career, it is no surprise that Vitor Belfort comes in as the underdog in this spot. Despite Belfort’s inconsistencies since his controversial testosterone use, the Brazilian will have clear and tangible paths to victory in this fight. A noted first round fighter, Belfort could conceivably get the jump on Gegard, who often starts slow. More specifically, Mousasi’s defensive tendencies could play right into Vitor’s most potent strikes.

Stalking forward in a measured fashion, Mousasi will steadily pressure opponents through jabs and feints. However, when Gegard looks to defend, he tends to lurch forward as he leans/slips to off to his right-side. Against a southpaw in Lyoto Machida, we saw Mousasi struggle to find his jab as he ate left-sided counter kicks and punches. That said, Machida has a knack for throwing off the best of strikers with his unorthodox style, so that should be kept in mind as this was Gegard’s only UFC southpaw sample-size.

Although Vitor is not as fast as Machida, nor as fleet-of-foot, his left cross and kick are still lethal. Belfort also throws a nice uppercut off his check hook that could find it’s home through Gegard’s lurching guard. That said, I expect Mousasi has improved since his Machida bout as he has shown to more efficiently pressure inside the Octagon. Even though Mousasi seems uninterested by the look on his face, he is subtly searching for defensive tells and openings. Gegard also has some underrated leg kicks that could see some light in this fight.

However, as heavy as Mousasi’s leg kicks can be, they may also open him up to explosive counter shots from the Brazilian if he is not careful. Where the road of possibilities begins to narrow for me, is when looking at Mousasi’s reactive shot. Although he is not an active wrestler by any stretch, Gegard’s abilities are solid here as he knows just when to take his opponents down. Even though Vitor initially displayed improvements to his takedown defense in his last outing, he still showed to succumb to grappling pressure within the first round.

Although Belfort will have moments of veteran savvy inside the scrambles, he will also still pull guard or succeed to the bottom. Once underneath his opposition, Vitor has shown surprisingly little hip-awareness, much less the urgency to stand or submit. Not only is Gegard technically sound enough to keep down a grounded Belfort, but he is also intelligent enough to know that this is his path of least resistance. Although Vitor has slightly more than a puncher’s chance, his do-or-die sensibilities will likely see him stopped before the final bell.

Official Pick: Mousasi – Insides the distance

Official Outcome: Mousasi – TKO (round 2)

Summary:

In a light-heavyweight affair, Ovince Saint Preux takes on Jimi Manuwa. Coming off a short notice fight against Jon Jones, Saint Preux will look to right his ship after going the distance with the former champion. Standing in his way is England’s own, as Jimi Manuwa looks to make his return from an inactive 18 months.

Starting off on the feet, Saint Preux is dangerous, but Jimi is arguably the superior striker. Despite only doing martial arts since 2008, the 36-year old Manuwa looks to be one of the more refined technicians in the division. Keeping a classic defensive-guard, Jimi mixes in fundamentally sound strikes with traditional techniques like hook kicks. That said, Manuwa tends to throw his kicks nakedly, which could allow for counters.

I feel that Manuwa’s left hook may serve him well in this fight. Although Jimi does not have a huge sample size against southpaws, he shows good foot placement in his footwork that allows him to place his punches appropriately. Throwing his left hook coming forward or off of the counter may be Manuwa’s best chances of catching the elusive southpaw. One of the most natural athletes to compete in the UFC, we have seen Saint Preux steadily attach technics to his strong base.

Despite being one of the bigger men in the division, Ovince is also one of the most fleet-of-foot in regards to the way he moves. Displaying a shift variation referred to in traditional martial arts as “opening the gate“–the southpaw will swing his lead foot backward into an orthodox stance. These deceptive stance-switches change OSP’s attack range as well as his opposition’s perception of it. It will also allow Saint Preux to keep his left-hand in play as we saw this depicted in his fight with Shogun Rua(I also refer to this technique in my Cruz-Dillashaw Breakdown as Cruz has been masterfully doing this for years).

Even though Ovince’s left side is dangerous in regards to his punches and kicks, I believe his uppercut may be most potent in this matchup. Although the shell defense Manuwa employs can often expose the body, Jimi has shown a good job in defending body kicks in his fights with Ryan Jimmo and Jan Blachowicz. However, the shell guard can also make one open for attacks up the middle–like knees or uppercuts. Considering that those are strikes that Jimi has traditionally struggled with, this could be the punch to look for from OSP as his finish of Patrick Cummings shows his potential there.

Where the road of advantages begins to split for me, is when I look at each man’s grappling prospects. Regardless of how things go on the feet, OSP should always have the option of taking this fight to the floor as the superior wrestler, and arguably superior clinch fighter. Manuwa can strike well from the clinch as his leg dexterity lends itself to some nice knees inside. However, his efforts inside have largely been to anti-clinch as he faced a higher level of opposition. Both men have a good aptitude in striking off the breaks, but Saint Preux’s ability to changes levels for a shot should make the difference here.

Once on top, Ovince has been looking for fewer submissions and showing more positional awareness. Although that does not initially sound ideal, it is a sign of growth and maturity as this has also allowed OSP’s ground striking and control to become more efficient. I do not mean to discount Manuwa on the ground, but what little we have seen from him has not been the best account. Despite being a natural learner with excellent leg dexterity, we have seen no sign of a developing guard, much less the utilization of butterflies to stand. Unless Jimi can unveil some new skills he picked up from All-Stars Training Center, then I see OSP being able to control this fight.

Official Pick: Saint Preux – Decision

Official Outcome: Manuwa – KO (round 2)

Summary:

In a heavyweight battle, Stefan Struve will take on Daniel Omielanczuk. Originally slated to face Ruslan Magomedov, Struve will now face another Eastern European striker in Daniel Omielanczuk. Coming in on two weeks notice, Omielanczuk will put his 3-fight winning streak on the line as he looks to score the upset.

With both fighters technically skilled, the standing exchanges should tell us the most about this fight’s trajectory. Although Struve was preparing for one of the division’s more technical strikers, Daniel Omielanczuk is a different kind of fighter as he seldom sits back to counter. A deceptive distance closer, Daniel shows solid footwork for a heavyweight as he maintains an outside-foot-awareness. Although he has Muay Thai experience, his overall movement has a nod to his traditional background in Wushu Sanda.

Despite having an affinity for head kicks, Omielanczuk may not have many realistic looks against a foe who is a foot taller. That said, the body should be open all day long as I suspect the liver kick will be the shot to look for from the Pole. Although Stefan has traditionally struggled to keep his distance, he has made steady improvements to his game in the past few years. Dusting off his jab with more consistency, Stefan will also lean on his long teep kick to assist his efforts of distance management.

However, Struve will need to be careful when throwing it as Omielanczuk has a knack for countering kicks. In his UFC debut against Nandor Gueimino, Daniel was able to counter the Austrian’s teep kick with a thunderous left-hand that dropped him flat. Granted, Nandor did throw the same kick three times consecutively, but Struve will need to respect Omielanczuk regardless.

Although Daniel has the propensity to push into the clinch, he does not show a strong takedown game that I see giving Struve trouble. Daniel primarily attempts his takedowns against the fence, an area where Stefan has shown marked improvement. Despite an aging Minotauro Nogueira not being the best measuring stick as far wrestling goes, Struve did show some real technical improvements in not just defending takedowns, but also killing clinch engagements and circling out.

Although Struve’s fight with Rosholt was seemingly stranger, we still saw Stefan show these improvements as he was able to defend and adjust as the fight went on. Despite that being one of the more painful fights of recent memory, I do not feel it is a condemnation of Struve’s potential career. That said, his 16-second victory over Bigfoot Silva last May was not the best sample-size either. Never the less, Struve is training with quality coaches down in Florida as I suspect to see his improvements should this fight hit the floor.

Working with Blackzilian’s ground-marshall, Neil Melanson, Stefan has had the tutelage of one the best MMA grappling coaches in the game. A triangle choke specialist at 6’7″–250 lbs., Neil makes for an ideal coach to the man known as the Skyscraper. Moving his hips exceptionally well for a big man, I suspect that Struve will be able to give Daniel an unusual look that will likely cause him fits. Even when failing on initial attempts, Struve has shown to parlay his efforts into scrambling scenarios that serve him well.

With neither man possessing an aggressive takedown game, it is hard to forecast how much of this fight will take place on the mat. That said, I have to give an advantage to Struve as he will be the more dangerous man from top or bottom. Although Struve is the deserved favorite coming into this fight, Omielanczuk has all the intangibles of an underdog as he has a knack for dishing out unfavorable dog fights. Although Daniel is not the biggest finishing threat, he is physically durable with a deceptive gas tank attached. Considering that Omielanczuk has yet to be stopped, the safe play may be the over in what I feel is a heavyweight coin toss.

Official Pick: Struve – Decision

Official Outcome: Struve – Submission (round 2)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card is a fun featherweight fight between Mirsad Bektic and Russell Doane. Originally slated to face Arnold Allen, Bektic will yet again deal with an opponent change as the Bosnian is eager to make his return. Saving the show and stepping in on five days notice is Hawaiian fighter, Russell Doane. Coming up from bantamweight to take this fight, Russell will put his 3-fight losing skid aside and look to upset an undefeated fighter.

Even though the odds are strongly against Doane to do it, the Hawaiian will bring some interesting intangibles to the table. Although he is the smaller man, Russell is one of the better movers Bektic has faced on the feet in his short UFC tenor. Despite the fact that Doane has struggled to show the same potential standing as he did in his bouts outside the UFC, the Hawaiian showed signs of his improvements in his last fight with Pedro Munhoz. Similar to his stablemate Max Holloway, Russell came out southpaw as he would shift his stances and attack

Firing accurate left-hands and body kicks in a continuum, the fast starting Hawaiian looked to be controlling the fight early. Although Doane ended up losing to Munhoz(via a beautiful boa choke), his quick starts standing could be his best shot here. Even though Mirsad is no slouch in the striking department, he has not competed in well over a year as strike timing can be the hardest adjustment initially. That said, Bektic shows disciplined defenses and is also fleet-of-foot, as he circles off and angles appropriately.

Where the rubber meets the road in this fight is within the wrestling exchanges. Both men show preternatural hip awareness and strength but go about their games differently. Bektic employs an excellent reactive shot that is reminiscent to a prime GSP when attached to his jab. Doane, on the other hand, will rely on his quickness to get in on shots as he works more of a chaining takedown game. Although Russell has the technical ability to create his moments here, I suspect that the bigger man’s high-percentage game will eventually take over.

However, bigger is not always better when it comes to grappling matchups. A technical grappler can do well against bigger opponents but struggle against the smaller ones, as scrambling plays a huge factor in forcing a control player to work. Since most top game players who have a size advantage seldom stray from trying to control the action, things could get interesting should Russell force Bektic to play his game. That said, the Hawaiian’s game is a double-edged sword as his scrambles often get him burned as well.

Like many wrestling based grapplers, Russell tends to turtle out when he stands which always runs a risk for back takes. Despite Doane having superb submission defense, his is too comfortable in fighting from bad spots as this has cost him crucial rounds in the past. Mirsad plays an air-tight, and patient top game where he will use his pressure to open up his advances. Although he is not as flashy a scrambler as Russell, the Bosnian will smoothly snatch a back at the appropriate times.

Even though a layoff is not as troubling as a short-notice fight, I would go easy on expectations for Bektic, as I predict a measured approach from the Bosnian. Although Russell is a bantamweight, he has heavy-hands and a submissions game that Bektic will need to respect. Although I would not mind seeing the scrappy Hawaiian score an upset, I will be siding with Bektic as I see him getting back on his horse and riding out the storm.

Official Pick: Bektic – Decision

Official Bektic – Submission (round 1)

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Pickett def. Alcantara
• Font def. Entwistle
• Grant def. Stasiak
• Tumenov def. Edwards
• Roberts def. Perry
• Martins def. Santos
• Diakiese def. Sajewski

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