Summary:

The main event for UFC 203 is a promising one as Stipe Miocic defends his title against Alistair Overeem. Just four months after silencing a stadium in Brazil, Stipe Miocic will return to a home game in Cleveland as he looks to cement his status against one of the best in the world. A Champion in organizations such as Strikeforce, Dream, and K-1, Alistair Overeem will get his first chance to add the biggest title in the world to his collection.

Starting off on the feet, I feel that this fight may begin in a similar fashion to Overeem’s fight with Junior Dos Santos. In facing a pressure-fighting boxer who holds a knockout threat, we saw Alistair play the outside edges in a safe manner, keeping his space and looking for his openings. If you have been watching Overeem since his days in Pride, then you will know that the Dutchman didn’t always fight this way. Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn’t until Alistair’s run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork & approach.

Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, Alistair’s confidence in his head movement and technique often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. However, after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, Overeem seemed to find a home at Jackson-Wink as he would embrace a slightly different approach. Like many fighters who come from that camp, Alistair will now circle the outside comfortably as he looks to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run. With the highest striking accuracy in the division at 75%, this style is optimal for Overeem as it also plays a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness.

This approach will likely force Miocic to implement his pressure-fighting ways to close the gap as Alistair searches for his shot. With both men being of similar stature, I feel that Overeem should have the advantage at range given his wide array of attacks. As the matador, I suspect Overeem will look to land leg and body kicks in abundance. Usually moving forward in an upright boxing stance, Miocic has traditionally been open to the body as he also shows lackadaisical leg kick defense. Although Stipe showed attempts at leg checks in his last fight against Werdum, Alistair’s attacks are on another level as I see him doing very well from range.

That said, I am not sure Stipe will be letting Overeem breathe that much on the outside given the Clevelander’s advantage at boxing range. A Golden Gloves winner before he even began his MMA career, we have seen Stipe still make improvements to his striking game. Although his athletic ability and background in wrestling add an undeniable dimension to his game, it is the work Stipe does in small spaces that is so impressive. Moving his feet like the heavyweight version of Frankie Edgar, Miocic will work steadily behind a series of jabs & feints as he always steps slightly off angle in search of his counter shots.

Moving just as well laterally as he does in-and-out, Miocic shows a good sense of things inside the pocket as he almost preternaturally pulls & returns punches. Whether he is using his patent parries or slick step-offs to the side, it is his battering ram right-hand that Overeem will be attempting to avoid. Although punch crowding seems like Stipe’s best game plan on paper against a fighter who requires space to operate, he will need to aware that this approach may ultimately lead Miocic into multiple clinch engagements during this fight. Although Stipe is competent inside the clinch, we have yet to see him against a high-level clinch fighter, much less Alistair who is arguably the best in the division next to Josh Barnett.

However, if Stipe can avoid the Reem’s intercepting knees on his approach, his pressure and corner-cutting may pay huge dividends against the cage. Even in this less confrontational version of Overeem, we have seen in his fights with Roy Nelson & Andrei Arlovski that it does not take much punching pressure to get the Reem to revert into a shell guard. Although he was able to survive these stanzas against heavy hitters like Nelson & Arlovski, Alistair may not fair so well should he elect for this defense against Miocic. Using his said abilities to step off at angles, Stipe is superb when it comes to working around the guard to find the front-left quarter of his opponent’s face. I am not sure if this is what Miocic’s corner is calling for when shouting “Klitschko Quarter”, but I do think it will come to light should Alistair plant and shell.

I am very curious to see how Stipe deals with Alistair’s hand fighting inside the clinch. What makes a clinch striker so dangerous or a “ground & pounder” so good, ultimately comes down to their ability to grip fight. Hence why most good ground & pounders make good clinch strikers and vice versa. Although Overeem has an uncanny ability for smelling openings inside the clinch, it is the grip game that Miocic will have to beat if means to find success in close. Similar to Cain Velasquez, Stipe’s attack is rounded out by his wrestling that can also serve as a plan B. Although Stipe’s grappling is underrated as I see his top game posing potential problems for the Reem, Stipe will have to clear some risky hurdles to get Overeem down.

Miocic, nines times out of ten will go with a head-outside single as his preferred takedown method. Although this takedown transitions beautifully off his punches and stance, it also leaves the neck more vulnerable than any other in regards to Guillotines. Considering that Alistair has one of the best Guillotines in the division, it will be interesting to see if Stipe alters his approach. Brock Lesnar went for a similar takedown attempt in his fight with Overeem but was quickly shut down by the Guillotine threat as this forced Brock to stand for the duration of their bout. Alistair is also an underrated takedown artist himself, as I imagine his attempts will also be live any time inside the clinch.

That said, Stipe is one of the hardest heavyweights to hold down as I don’t see Overeem controlling him for long. However, Miocic is hard to hold down because he is so quick to turtle-out and stand. Although many wrestlers use this method to get up, turtling can often expose your back, or in the case of a heavyweight affair, give up a front headlock. Aside from maybe Ben Rothwell or Fabricio Werdum, Overeem is the worst person to give a front headlock to as he transitions smoothly to devastating ground strikes that sneakily set you up for his patent Guillotine chokes.

Given the arsenal and experience advantage, it is hard not to side with Overeem when forced to make a pick here. Despite being the veteran of both age and in-cage miles, Overeem will be one of the few fighters who can arguably compete with Miocic athletically which makes things interesting. With this fight likely being decided on the feet, I see the Reem searching for his timing while Miocic looks to disrupt it with is own rhythm. In a game of inches, the heavyweight division is king as I predict we may have a new one by the end of the night.

Official Pick: Overeem – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Miocic – KO (round 1)

Summary:

The co-main event in Cleveland is another heavyweight encounter as Fabricio Werdum meets Travis Browne for the second time. Originally slated to dance with Ben Rothwell, the former champion will now have to face an old foe to get back to his title aspirations. Taking this fight on just a few weeks notice, Travis Browne will also be looking to bounce back from a devastating loss earlier this year.

When Werdum and Browne first fought two years ago, we saw Fabricio’s striking come to fruition as he put on one of the best performances of his career. Although Browne fell victim to a broken hand early in the fight, there was clearly an advantage for Werdum in regards to his speed and arsenal of attack. More importantly, the veteran fighter was able to establish his timing & rhythm as he took Travis out of his game. That said, this was against a much different Travis Browne as I feel the Hawaiian may have quietly made more improvements since their last meeting. After said fight, Travis stayed with Ricky Lundell & Neil Melanson for his ground game but moved his training camp to the Glendale Fight Club.

Say what you will about Edmond Tarverdyan, but we have seen measurable improvements to Browne’s striking since his transition. Early in Travis’ career, we saw a sporadic fighter who’s unpredictability and explosive frame posed a lot of problems stylistically. However, as Browne would climb the ranks, we would see him begin to struggle in the boxing range. Often giving away his intentions through awkward and heavy plots, Browne would find himself a step behind his opposition in exchanges. Couple that with his propensity to be aggressive and throw himself out of position, Travis has also traditionally struggled with being countered. In his subsequent camps with Edmond, we have seen Travis move more fluidly as he does a much better job of keeping his feet appropriately synced with his punches.

Measuring behind an active jab and corralling left hook, Browne’s right cross commands even more respect as he keeps it long and accurate. As we saw in his fight with Matt Mitrione, Travis can now counter well with his cross as this was a skill-set previously vacant to his game. I suspect this will be the setup to look for from Travis, as right crosses have been the common culprit for Fabricio. In fact, Fabricio has been dropped in 4 of his last 6-outings due to right-hands finding their mark. However, many of Fabricio’s falls were arguably flops as he is known for his in-cage baits & showmanship. Similarly to a basketball player trying to draw a foul, Fabricio will deceptively roll with punches as he relinquishes to his back.

Although this may not win him favor with the judges, there is a method the former champ’s madness. The first being Fabricio’s invitation into the ambush that is his guard game. As we’ve seen time and time again, Werdum can not only submit world champions here but more importantly, he creates situations to scramble and sweep his way topside(often utilizing deep-half & X-guard variations out the back door). If Fabricio’s opponents decide not to chase him into deep waters, they inherently let him off the hook if he is in fact hurt, or give him a breather at the very least. This tactic has stifled the best of killer instincts and has allowed Werdum back into many of fights.

That said, it may not come to that as we may see Werdum look to change things up and explore his advantages on the floor. However, Browne has an underrated ground game that was able to keep him safe in their first fight, as I suspect Browne has only gotten better since then. In fact, Travis has shown us glimpses at his ground improvements against Brendan Schaub & Matt Mitrione. Despite both instances involving compromised men, Travis still showed an excellent technical understanding from his time spent with Ricky Lundell & Neil Melanson. From his utilization of the gift-wrap on Brendan Schaub to the sturdiness of his mount against Mitrione, I feel we have yet to see the best from Browne.

None the less, it is hard to like the Hawaiian’s chances on the mat against the world champion grappler. Unless Travis can hurt Werdum first, then he will likely be at an on-paper disadvantage both standing and on the ground. However, if Browne can use his improved boxing and patent front kicks to control the range, he may be able to steal the momentum or land a fight-changing shot. Although I am siding with Werdum, a Browne upset would not surprise me as this is heavyweight MMA. But with both men facing two consecutive losses for the first time in their careers, expect extra high intangibles for this fight as I forecast a tightrope walk between conservation and chaos.

Official Pick: Werdum – Decision

Official Outcome: Werdum – Decision

Summary:

In a unique main card attraction, Phil Brooks(aka “CM Punk“) will make his long-awaited MMA debut against Mickey Gall. A straight edge punk rocker who seemingly found success as a pro wrestler in the WWE, Phil Brooks is about as unlikely a competitor you will find on a UFC main card. Although the Ohio Athletic Commission recently likened CM Punk to Brock Lesnar, Phil Brooks does not come from a collegiate wrestling, nor athletic background. Although Brooks does have limited experience in Karate, and more relevantly Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, the man formally known as Punk will have his work cut out for him.

Enter Mickey Gall, a professional debutant who was able to capitalize on the UFC Fight Pass show, “Looking for a Fight”. There, we saw Mickey Gall introduced to the MMA mainstream as the New Jersey native was quick to call out CM Punk following a win where Dana White was in the audience. Although his organizational debut against Mike Jackson was faster than his first professional fight, Mickey Gall showed us that he is serious about competing in this sport. In fact, Gall is going about his career in an ideal fashion as the 24-year old has already gained a decent amount of experience. Traveling between multiple Gyms in the tri-state area, Gall is Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu as well as ranked in Muay Thai.

Mickey has also competed in many grappling tournaments as he shows a solid ground game from top and bottom. Ultimately, you do not have to analyze this deeply to see who holds the clear on-paper advantages. As a former straight edge punk rocker who is addicted to challenges, I can understand and appreciate what Phil Brooks is trying to accomplish. But as someone who has also competed in combat sports and martial arts for the last twenty years, it is not difficult to see the level Brooks is at through the limited footage that is available. Even within the pro wrestling world, Punk was more of an entertainer than an acrobat. I don’t even know what my expectations are for this fight, except to say that I do indeed wish Phil Brooks well.

Official Pick: Gall – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Gall – Submission (round 1)

Summary:

In a potential fight of the night matchup, Urijah Faber will face-off against a rising contender in Jimmie Rivera. A legend of the lighter weight classes for some time now, Urijah Faber recently sounded uncertain about his future after coming up short in another bid for the title. Still appearing to be in the best shape of his career, the California Kid has decided to keep going as he looks to fend off yet another young lion. Despite coming up short in a featherweight stint on season 14 of the Ultimate Fighter against show Finalist Dennis Bermudez, Jimmie Rivera has not suffered an official defeat in 8-years. Now receiving the biggest showcase of his career, Rivera will look to capitalize on an opportunity against one of the sports greatest.

Although I do think highly of Urijah Faber, I feel this may be a tough matchup for him stylistically. Looking back at Faber’s career, Urijah has traditionally struggled with fighters who can match his wrestling ability(nullifying the grappling exchanges) and outwork him on the feet. Although Urijah’s speed often evened the playing field, those attributes can be difficult to rely upon as you age in a lighter weight division. Enter Jimmie Rivera, who despite being stout and well-muscled for a bantamweight, moves deceptively well as the New Jersey native grew up with wrestling and martial arts. A 3rd-degree black belt under Tiger Schulmann, Jimmie’s kickboxing chops shine through as he melds a traditional boxing arsenal disguised behind slick kicks and fundamental footwork.

Although Rivera is aggressive in nature, he does his best work countering inside the pocket and off the breaks. Throwing strikes in an intercepting effort, Rivera will meet his opposition’s attacks as his slight angles and slips inside often allow him to punctuate the exchanges. This countering style could be effective against Faber, who’s darting attacks fueled by his speed make him difficult to time. If Faber is not careful, he may find himself landing the initial shots only to be followed-up on as he leaves the pocket(in a similar fashion to his fight with Frankie Edgar). Although Rivera’s left hook is punch he prefers to punctuate with, I feel that the uppercut may be the punch to look out for in this fight.

A possible carry-over from his level-changing takedown feints, Faber’s head will often come dangerously low and forward on his entries. Not only can you see this cost him uppercuts in his battles with Dominick Cruz, but Urijah was also caught similarly in recent bouts with Frankie Saenz & Cisco Rivera. As we saw in Jimmie’s fight with Pedro Munhoz, Rivera will dust off his uppercuts when facing other orthodox fighters as I suspect this will be something he looks for against Urijah. Despite Faber’s offense often being criticized for its predictability, his patent right hand will be live in this matchup. Although Jimmie keeps a good sense of things in the pocket, his propensity to trade often leaves him open for counters by nature.

Both Iuri Alcantara and Pedro Munhoz found success with counter shots as they were each able to drop Jimmie in their fights. Although Rivera has shown an ability to absorb and recover quickly, he will be playing with fire should he show any signs of weakness against the killer instinct of Faber. That said, I feel that Rivera should have the clearer advantage in the striking realm the longer this fight goes. Urijah’s best chance in this matchup will be testing the grappling skills of Jimmie Rivera. Although Jimmie shows solid wrestling chops and superb takedown defense, even Faber’s failed attempts will force Rivera to work, and possibly wear on that thick frame of his.

Even though Faber is probably the more diverse clinch fighter, Rivera may have the perfect style to stifle him. In a straightforward clinch battle of striking and wrestling, Urijah can hold his own just fine with the division’s best. However, when facing said wrestling stylists like Cruz or Edgar, we have seen the body lock to tight-waist style clinch do wonders in regards to killing Faber’s game. Given that this is a position where Rivera has shown to embrace(most recently in his Alcantara fight), I would not be surprised to see Jimmie use this in close to nullify Faber’s striking and scrambling ability. However, it is in the scramble where Urijah will have his best chances to win this fight.

Despite Rivera having excellent takedown defense, he tends to do so using classic wrestling tools like bellying-down or turtling-out. Although these are effective techniques to stand, they tend to show your back which is the last thing you want to do against an active back taker like Faber. That said, Rivera shows some scrambling ability of his own, as we have already seen him tested against two of the division’s best BJJ Black Belts in Munhoz & Alcantara. Even though an upset win for Faber is well within grasp, I see his reliance on speed costing him as that is the fastest fleeting commodity for an aging bantamweight. Ultimately, I see Rivera having the right of way in this crossroads fight.

Official Pick: Rivera – Decision

Official Outcome: Rivera – Decision

Summary:

Kicking off the main card of UFC 203 is a fun scrap in the strawweight division as Jessica Andrade meets Joanne Calderwood. A former usual suspect in the bantamweight division, Jessica Andrade will be making her second appearance in her new home of 115-pounds. Looking like an instant contender in her debut against Jessica Penne earlier this year, Andrade will make a huge statement to the division if she can beat Joanne Calderwood. A fan-favorite coming off season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter, Calderwood had a slower start than expected as the initial number two seed. With camp changes and personal problems now behind her, Joanne will look to take a step closer to the top should she get past another tough test.

With this fight, in my opinion, being the most tightly contested match on the card, I do not blame you for not having confidence in your pick as I admittedly do not have much in mine. That said, there are some distinct pathways and advantages each fighter will have over the other on paper. At a distance, Calderwood commands an impressive, and seemingly growing arsenal of attacks. Whether it’s her knees and Thai kicks off of the shuffle or her newly sharpened spinning attacks, Joanne will have a good a choice of weaponry as she should hold the advantage at range. With that in mind, I expect Calderwood’s patent teep kick to be at play as well as her improved jab.

Although Andrade has typically shown to take shots well, she is more than hittable at range as I am sure Calderwood will be quick to test her as long as it remains there. Usually using her teep kick to initiate the action, Calderwood will often use her jab to punch of out exchanges, almost as a check. These tools will undoubtedly be crucial for Calderwood, especially considering that she is facing a fast starting pressure-fighter. Consistently coming out like a bull in the China shop, Andrade’s pressure-fighting may be even more imposing at strawweight. An equivalent to the female John Lineker, Andrade is most optimal when able to push her opposition toward the cage.

Once able to get her opponent in between the fence and inner black Octagon lines, Andrade will unleash in left-to-right continuums as she variates well to the body. Given that Calderwood was stifled in similar scenarios against Maryna Moroz & Cortney Casey, the path should be clear for the fast-starting Brazilian. That said, the slow starts of Calderwood(a carry-over from traditional Muay Thai), did not show themselves in her last outing as we saw distinct improvements to her game. Now training with Firas Zihabi at Tristar Gym for the better part of a calendar year, Calderwood gave us glimpses of her growth against Valerie Letourneau.

Calderwood showed upgrades in her wrestling ability, jab fundamentals, and ring generalship as these are all staples Firas Zihabi instills in his fighters. Joanne will need these improvements and more, especially if she finds herself pinned to the fence by Andrade’s pressure. That brings us to the key factor in this fight, the clinch game. Both women are deceptively effective clinch fighters, but with different approaches. Although the arsenal advantage should go to the more technical Thai fighter in Calderwood, the stout frame of Andrade may stifle much of the offense. Given that both fighters favor outside trips and tosses, it will be interesting to see who wins out that battle as I feel landing takedowns will be crucial in a fight this close.

Although Calderwood’s base & balance from Muay Thai translates well to her takedown defense, she hasn’t faced a fighter who will force the issue like Andrade. Should the Brazilian get on top, Joanne will have opportunities to submit or stand as Andrade tends to rely on baiting submissions to open up her passes. Should Calderwood get topside, we could see her force her positional ground & pound to wear down Andrade, as she has shown to slow as fights wear on. With one fighter having more tools to win and the other having a clearer path, the intangibles of this matchup justifiably earn its spot on my fights to avoid list. Although an Andrade victory would not surprise me in the least, I will be siding with Calderwood to survive the storm early and come alive late.

Official Pick: Calderwood – Decision

Official Outcome: Andrade – Submission (round 1)

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Eye def. Correia
• Tavares def. Magalhaes
• Lentz def. McBride
• McCall def. Borg
• Medeiros def. Spencer
• Dolloway def. Barroso
• Dober def. Gonzales
• Hadzovic def. Kasuya

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