Summary:

With two careers spent hunting in the same waters, Robbie Lawler & Carlos Condit are perfect parallels of violence as they state their cases for Gold. Not many complaints, nor bold predictions, as this matchup is almost too promising in it’s possibilities. Although I initially felt this way going in, my view of this fight is much more clear after reviewing extensive footage. I’ll do my best here to explain the key factors that will allow each man to expand their paths to victory, and the reasonings behind my prediction(of course all viewpoints are ultimately subjective, my breakdowns are simply here to help your reference points).

Starting off with “The Natural Born Killer”, Condit operates out of an ever-evolving & seemingly sophisticated Muay Thai stance. Known for having a great striking base from his years with Mike Winklejohn, Carlos has made even more improvements to his Boxing and range-finding game since working with Brandon Gibson. At a long frame of 6’2″ these skills are not only crucial for Condit, but something he really needed to tie his game together. As we’ve seen in the last few years of his career, Carlos’s understanding & application of Boxing range has helped him manage distance(especially in regards to takedown threats) and even help open up his deadly knees & kicks.

Despite said improvements on his hands, I feel Carlos’s kicking game will be paramount in dethroning the Champion. I see the Front Kick in particular to be the key technique to a Condit victory. Even in his recent UFC resurgence, Lawler has traditionally shown a lackadaisical kicking defense. In watching film you’ll see that Robbie will reluctantly check or block Thai kicks, and show even less resistance for said Front kicks(With almost all attempts of recent opposition landing). Though not typically a “fight ending technique“, the front kick is an excellent distance management tool that can allow Carlos space from Lawler’s heavy handed attacks, and even open up his own offense(as Condit shows a knack for misguiding opposition into head kicks & knees).

As noticeable as Robbie’s kicking defenses may or may not be, I found Condit’s defensive liabilities are surprisingly much more apparent. Despite never being knocked out nor seldomly seeming hurt(credit an awesome poker face), Carlos Condit in plain english gets hit a lot.. at least a lot more than you’d expect. Although showing improved offensive head movement, Carlos tends to lean his head heavily right or upright upon retreat. This habit has shown to cost him a healthy amount of punches, especially of the left handed nature. Consistently hit with jabs & hooks from orthodox opposition, the left overhands & crosses from Southpaws have also shown to find natural homes and even sway the momentum standing(as seen in fights with Nick Diaz & Johny Hendricks). Not to mention most of these instances of retreat vulnerability took place between the inner black Octagon lines and the Fence, which just so happens to be Robbie’s preferred Kill Zone.

With Lawler showing little interest in the ground and Condit arguably not possessing the wrestling to take it there, the common forecast for this storm is that it may remain standing. Although Condit’s game is ultra-impressive and ever-evolving, I’m not sure how I feel about his chances going head-to-head or even evading Lawler’s corralling offensive pressure. Though well conditioned himself, the Champion has shown a propensity to lull in activity mid-fight. Now this may be due to strategy or pacing, but with a Killer who comes on late like Condit, Lawler cannot afford breaks with his “hit you & hurt you” approach. With both men ridiculously tough & durable it almost feels like a crime to predict a stop on either end. However, with no man ever taking a Decision win over Condit without using wrestling, I see the nature of this knife fight forcing the referees hand before the final bell.

Official Pick: Lawler – Inside the Distance

Official Outcome: Lawler – Decision.

Summary:

In the evenings co main-event is a Heavyweight showdown between Stipe Miocic vs Andrei Arlovski. Stipe is the on paper favorite coming into this matchup and I can totally see why. Despite being long marked the division’s contender with his athletic transition game, Miocic has recently struggled with back issues that inevitably sidelined his appearance in Dublin last October. With Miocic still showing physical rehab work leading into this fight(via his Instagram), I strongly feel this will be the live intangible heading into this battle.

I always avoid putting heavy weight into what some would consider “private issues” or “personal intangibles”, because I don’t feel it makes for ethical or accurate analysis. That being said, there are sometimes where it qualifies as a justified intangible and allow me to explain why. First off, I believe the key factor in this fight will be Stipe’s “Frankie Edgar-like” transition game, and how effective he can be to keep Arlovski working & guessing(which has traditionally shown to take away from his offense).

Though Arlovski has abandoned ground intents in fights, his Sambo base still translates to his deceptively strong clinch game and a takedown defense rate of 85%. This means Miocic’s usual cage pressure(and the Double-leg’s he favors from there), may not be as effective as anticipated. That said, Stipe’s transition game in the open caters to his shown single-leg snap downs, which I see being the key takedown technique to ground Arlovski. This technique off his jab is not only Miocic’s go-to takedown, but it also requires the most inadvertent back leverage of anything else he uses in his arsenal(especially the the way in which he executes “running the pipe” to finish).

This is where said “back intangibles” come into play, and here’s how the numbers will tell us it’s validity within the first round. With Miocic’s 47 official takedown attempts over a 9 fight period, he roughly averages 3 to 4 official takedown attempts per round. This may not sound that impressive, but when you put up those numbers consistently at Heavyweight, Miocic’s overall output has arguably pushed him ahead in the pack(coming only second the likes of Cain Velasquez as far as activity goes). If the first round manages to go by with no sign of takedown intentions, it may tell us the physical state Stipe is really at for this fight.

As a noted intelligent fighter with good risk management, I’m sure Stipe and his team know Arlovski’s best chance to win this fight is for Miocic to stand & trade. Even if Stipe manages to ground the Former Champ, Arlovski shows effective stalling techniques & guard retention to get fights stood up(which Referees will seemingly do faster at Heavyweight). All that said, I believe this fight will primarily take place standing where we’ll see Stipe’s in & out Boxing against Andrei’s counter striking. Though Arlovski’s improved kicking arsenal could have play given Stipe’s reluctance to check, I believe his counter punching will be the key to his victory.

Stipe shows fight-to-fight improvements in his Boxing and overall movement, however, his head position will often stagnate mid-combination which has cost him counter shots in the past. If Miocic is not healthy and/or his transition game fails, I don’t like his chances standing with Andrei and only having three rounds in which to work. With a night full of close matchups, I feel Arlovski has some of the most dog value on this card. But tread carefully, after all it’s Heavyweight MMA.

Official Pick: Arlovski – Decision

Official Outcome: Miocic – KO – Round 1.

Summary:

You can’t bring a card out West without a proper gun fight, as the UFC matchmakers grace us with Lorenz Larkin vs Albert Tumenov. In the matchup that’s excited me the most since it’s inception, it’s very hard to see how this technical shootout does not deliver(for however long it lasts). Given both mens lack of interest for takedowns or cage clinches, I suspect this fight will largely be contested & determined on the feet.

With each fighter requiring comfortable spaces to operate their striking games, I believe this matchup may come down to who can disrupt & discomfort the other more effectively. I’ve been following Larkin’s career since his Strikeforce days, and despite coming from a heavier weight class, I believe he’ll carry a slight speed advantage in this fight. Lorenz’s hand speed is accentuated by his foot speed, as you’ll see him dart in & out of striking range. This is something he’ll need in spades if he means to stifle Tumenov’s rhythm.

Albert’s no slouch in the speed department himself, but it’s his technique & timing that he uses to equalize range and speed advantages. In his past fights we’ve seen Albert read and time opposition to set up his deadly counter attacks. Offensively, Tumenov will step into space while subtly taking an off-setting angle, which he’ll use to set up his accurate right hand. This coupled with the proper pressure could be effective against Larkin, who traditionally struggles when being pressure fought.

Though Larkin displays excellent offensive movement, he also shows a habit of moving straight back into the cage when pressured defensively. Often exposing his head, Lorenz will usually retreat in a “Philly Shell“(power hand high-lead hand low). This in particular will expose Larkin to Albert’s said right hands and other offensive tools(as we saw in his last fight against Alan Jouban). I feel Larkin’s best chance of disrupting the Russian’s game is to lean heavily on his kicks, where I feel he has the advantage. With Tumenov showing far less kicking defense than punch defense, Lorenz could potentially frustrate & sway the momentum of the fight here.

That said, Albert has shown durability in all areas as he’ll gladly eat or catch kicks to counter strike. I’m a huge fan of both men and would hate to see either lose, but sadly they both can’t be winners. Ultimately, I feel that Tumenov’s chin and precision pressure will be the key factor in this fire fight.