Summary:

In Melbourne’s main event, Holly Holm will finally get her chance at Ronda Rousey and the Bantamweight Title. With this fights popularity and promotion, It can be hard to see the forrest through the trees. In this analysis I’ll attempt an overhead view as I try to trim the fat for you. From Holly’s arguably inflated accolades, to her conservative footwork based approach, many pundits & fans alike have already drawn forgone conclusions. Though 20 to 1 odds don’t help the argument, I still find this very amusing given the general hypothetical hypothesis on beating Rousey. In the wake of Rousey’s often single round storms, it’s left many people wondering how she would fair against a superior striker who can stay away from her game.

Whether you think Holm can beat Ronda or not, She certainly has the distance management & discipline to present said challenge. To quote Robyn Black, Holly is more of a “Play-runner” as she shows a machine-like consistency in her attack and approach. Her key to distance control and attack angles come off her circling style. Holly will circle to her left defensively or to reset, and will circle right to set up attack angles that force opponents to their weak side(being that she’s a southpaw primarily facing orthodox opposition). Off this movement, Holly shows a myriad of combinations in which she’ll use to set up hard body or head kicks.

It should however be noted that Holm’s faced largely lower level competition who played this distance game, a luxury I’m not sure she’ll have with Ronda’s renown pressure fighting. Though disciplined with her movement, Holly will need to lean on her lead leg side-kick to aid her distancing. Where as Holly’s best offensive tool will be her left liver kick. Ronda’s shown a solid chin to go along with her mental toughness, but liver shots supersede all that as we’ve seen body work be a strength in Holm’s past. The predicament I see in Holly’s kicking game is that she’ll often set them up with short/shallow punches which open her up to counters(particularly right hands as seen in the Pennington fight).

Considering Ronda wields a deadly right hand over the top, this should be the strike/opening Ronda needs to enter and sway momentum. Though Holm doesn’t posses traditional KO power in her hands, Rousey will still need to be mindful on her entries as she is hittable. I know it’s a small sample size, but Ronda has been consistently hit(although not hurt) by 2-3 straight punches in the first 30 seconds of 5 out of 6 UFC bouts. That said, Holly’s chances of stopping her entries are low, as an aggressive Rousey entry is near certain. Though Holly has shown an improved clinch awareness, her grappling experience suggests she lacks the competitive tools to defend.

Should Holly find herself on bottom, it will be the first time in her career which is a scary proposition in it’s own right. With said lacking ground experience, I can’t in honesty tell you what she will or won’t do under such pressure. I’d imagine at that point Holly will begin to feel like the Biker Gang from “A Bronx Tale”, when Chazz Palminteri locks them in the bar and says,”Now you can’t leave.” If Holm can cease Rousey’s progress before the fight even gets there, then she may be able to build her own momentum. But to me, this match isn’t about the “if” as much as it’s about the “when”.

Official Pick: Rousey – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Holm – KO – round 2.

Summary:

The Co-Main Event of the evening comes baring fireworks, as Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her Strawweight Title against Valarie Letourneau. With both women coming from striking bases and showing little offensive wrestling, I expect this match to stay standing. Valerie holds less striking accolades but brings in more MMA experience as she’s competed against some of the sports best(at multiple weight classes) since 2007. Moving to American Top Team and down to Strawweight, Valerie’s worked hard to shore up ground deficiencies and rejuvenate her career. Preferring to stand, Letourneau shows an aggressive countering style.

Not afraid to engage range or exchange, Letourneau will slip just outside of punches and fire back in volume & variety. Favoring an accurate left hook and right uppercut, she also possesses a nice left switch kick. Against Jedrzejczyk however, I feel Valerie’s counter right hand will serve her best.  As we saw in her last bout with Moroz, Letourneau showed the timing & power to counter aggression and sway the fight momentum. Joanna, who primarily set up strikes from the jab, will often show a body jab(usually setting up a R. hand over the top). In doing this  she tends to lean her head more forward as apposed to angling off toward her power side.

This has opened her up to counter right hands(seen the Carneiro & Gadelha fights) and she’ll need to mind this against Letrourneau. Joanna has however showed massive fight to fight improvements in her last two fights. Showing excellent ring generalship, Joanna uses footwork & striking pressure to dictate opposition against the fence. This is her most effective operating space as she displays dangerous fight ending volumes. Jedrzejczyk also does an excellent job of mixing up her angles of attack. Depending how her opposition defends, she’ll adjust from overhands, uppercuts, to straight punches down the middle.

Giving Joanna the speed and overall striking advantage, It’s easy to say that Valerie should test the Champion on the ground. But with a lack of shown offensive wrestling, I’m not sure what new tricks the French-Canadian can pull out on a short notice fight in this stage of her career. On the flip side of that coin, Joanna shows much improved counter grappling/TD defense and an underrated ground IQ. Though we’ve barely seen Joanna on the floor, it’s for good reason as she’s shown superb cage awareness in her second nature to get to/up from the fence. Even from the bottom she shows more IQ than a lot of female and male ground fighters, as she consistently uses under-hooks from half guard to get up to a single-leg(one of the safest, simplest, and most effective reversal/get up approaches in MMA that surprisingly not a lot employ).

If Valerie fails on take down attempts, she may find herself in a clinch battle. Favoring a hard over-hook she’ll look to land knees, but with Joanna’s “Fore-arm framing” style, I doubt she’ll find her desired leverage. Instead of a traditional Thai clinch or over-under approach, Joanna violently frames her fore-arms into opponents faces only to break off devastating short elbows. I see this not only out doing Valerie, but eating up most girls in the division. I’m not counting out Letourneau completely by any means, but her willingness to brawl & exchange will make for a violent affair that may not go well for her. Between Valerie’s durability to Joanna’s output & aggression, the Champion could be worth a Fantasy spot but I’d avoid any straight plays either way.

Official Pick: Jedrzejczyk – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Jedrzejczyk – Unanimous Decision .

Summary:

Two years ago we were treated to a fantastic contest that was ultimately deemed winner-less leaving us wanting more. Picking up where they left off in Brisbane, Mark Hunt and “Bigfoot” Silva will look to sort things out in Melbourne. There are more than the usual Heavyweight intangibles here as you look at each man’s career since their first meeting. In the last two years we’ve seen suspect preparation from Mark as he’s came in heavier than usual while also taking more damage than usual(which is a lot). On the flip side of the intangible coin, is Bigfoot’s positive test & health issues post their original encounter. Since then, there’s been much speculation on Silva as we’ve seen head scratching inconsistencies in his performances and durability.

That all said, both men look to be in amazing shape & spirits as they rightfully are taking this rematch very serious. Mark Hunt has moved shop to AKA Thailand, and after an 8 week camp  the “Super Samoan” looks to be as slim & trim as ever in his career. He’s also had a wider range of training partners including Silva’s last opponent, Soa Paleilei. Where as Bigfoot has been working hard at American Top Team, where he’s also had the company of Junior Dos Santos these past 8 weeks. With an assumption of both men healthy and the intangibles out of the way, let’s jump into the technical action.

As their first fight(and most fights in each man’s career) I expect the majority of this one to be contested on the feet. Despite Bigfoot’s plotting demeanor, he has an underrated striking variety & volume. Being able to string together heavy punch combinations, Silva also possesses heavy right leg & body kicks. Leg kicks in particular could be a big key standing for Silva should he choose. In their last fight he sent Hunt hobbling to his corner to end round 2, but mysteriously abandoned it thereafter. Bigfoot’s most effective space standing is when he has opponents backed into the cage, as we’ve seen Silva show a second nature aggression here.

However, in his first bout with Hunt we saw his style consistently countered in said space. Though landing blows of his own, it appeared that Mark’s shots were more effective given Silva’s counter susceptibility. Though keeping his hands up and showing improved head movement, Silva will bring his head back in range and protected off strikes as he shows a slight delay in hand retraction. It’s in these exchanges where an experienced counter striker like Hunt thrives. Employing a rather basic Boxing arsenal, it’s Hunt’s deceptive speed changes that set him apart from the pack. Showing blatant lackadaisical movement & punches, Hunt will bait opposition toward him or lull them into a false sense of security. From here, he’ll explode into range with deadly counters.

Whether he’s rolling with his left hook or slipping to his right uppercut, Mark’s style relies heavily on reaction speed & durability. That can be a troubling proposition considering the wars he’s been through, but I still feel the Super Samoan should have enough left to edge this particular match up standing. Bigfoot’s best chance in this fight is to take it to the floor. When on top we’ve seen the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt display aggressive passing and ground & pound. The problem is that most of his career ground time has been initiated through knock downs or scrambles(unless of course his opposition took him down). That coupled with the fact he has no official UFC take down attempts, makes this path to victory less of a reality for me.

Bigfoot is also a traditionally slow starter and given this is 3 rounds apposed to 5, he may find himself in a pressure cooker. It will be interesting to see if Silva makes the said adjustments as he’s more than capable of winning. As a Heavyweight bout this should be tempered as so, but that said I feel Mark Hunt could be decent spot on your Fantasy Team. As Hunt started his career in Melbourne, I can see him walking away with the win here, and if we’re lucky..  another walk away KO.

Official Pick: Hunt – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Hunt – Inside the distance.

Summary:

In an obvious choice for potential Fight of the Night, Uriah “Primetime” Hall steps in against Robert “The Reaper” Whitaker. With both men coming from traditional martial arts backgrounds, they keep a noticeably low standing guard. As each fighter relies heavily on their head movement & countering ability, this may very well be decided upon early mistakes. Coming out of the gate, Whitaker shows little hesitation in starting quickly looking to get his left hand established. Welding an accurate jab-hook, it’s his off-tempo counter timing that’s most impressive.

Often seen with Karate based strikers, Robert will show/set one speed to draw his opposition into a “general rhythm” only to disrupt the perceived timing with deceptive counters. We saw an example of this in his last fight, as he caught Tavares with a check hook coming forward as apposed to traditionally fading back. It’s this type of speed changes that he’ll need to utilize to beat Hall. Though Hall has shown mental lulls of inactivity, he’s silenced much of his doubters with his gutsy performances against Santos & Mousasi.

Also showing low defensive hand positioning, Uriah will use this to bait counter opportunities. Though opponents & fans alike will focus on Hall’s kicking variety, I believe his right hand will play the biggest factor. Effective from both stances, Uriah will use an accurate straight right to measure & stifle oncoming attacks. This could be especially useful given Whitaker’s low left guard and shown right hand availability(Hit cleanly in 4 of last 6).  Hall will be carrying more interesting intangibles than usual heading into this fight.

From taking another short-notice fight overseas, to his first fight prep with KingsMMA(self admittedly his first time training at that high level), this tends to produce sinking or soaring results. With Whitaker showing improved durability & confidence at Middleweight(not to mention stadium behind him) I expect a more than honest showing from Robert. Truthfully, you’re better off rolling dice then picking a sure winner as even “the under” scares me on this one.

With a fight as close as this, I look to their commonalities & vulnerabilites for the edge in this one. Both men traditionally struggle when pressure fought(even in the striking realm) as we’ve seen each men outdone by lesser on paper talents. Though both men are still effective counter strikers, it’s Robert Whitaker who has shown he’s got an equally effective pressure game. Even when clearly or potentially down on the cards, Hall often shows little adjustments as he’s happy to counter(except for the Santos fight where his toe was fractured, that was an amazing performance).

As we all saw Uriah Hall’s coming out party in Japan, I have a sneaky suspicion that it will be Whitaker’s turn this time around. Though I’m slightly leaning toward to the Australian to get it done, I caution any plays as either man is worth looking at for Fantasy picks. Should Hall find his hand raised, I can almost guarantee it will be his right hand that kicks off the party. That said I see Robert Whitaker’s style and fight-to-fight improvements edging it out. You’re best bet here is to crack open a beer and enjoy what may be the most fun match up on the card.

Official Pick: Whitaker – Decision

Official Outcome: Whitaker – Unanimous Decision.

Summary:

To kick off the UFC 193 main card we’re treated to a clash of Heavyweights, as Stefan Struve and Jared Rosholt do battle. Though having a couple shaky outings since returning from health issues, Stefan shows a rejuvenation since joining the Blackzilians, and I suspect he’ll be in good form for this one. Rosholt on the other hand, will be the more consistent fighter with his grinding wrestling style. In the striking department, I believe Struve is more well-rounded as I give him an edge here. Though widely criticized for his lack of jabs and propensity for damage, he should match up well here stylistically regardless of this.

Weilding an effective variety of kicking attacks, it’s Struve’s accurate right hand that should serve him best. Jared shows to get a tad sloppy in entries & exchanges, especially when throwing his left hook as he retracts it low. This has shown to open up Rosholt to right hands as he’s been hurt or dropped in 5 of his last 6 fights. Rosholt does however show good movement off his right hand, as he’ll usually change his level to get in on a clinch. This will be his most effective route to get this fight in his preferred space.

Once in the clinch(especially against the cage), Rosholt applies a solid pressure and dirty boxing game(dangerous uppercuts). But with the clear height discrepancy, he’ll have a limited availability of his tool kit. With the clear wrestling advantage, I suspect Jared will be able to use his patent “against the cage” take-downs to ground Struve. It’s on the ground however where I feel that not only Struve has an advantage, but is also his highest probability to close the show. Don’t get me wrong, Rosholt has shown a solid top game thus far in his career.

Jared will also have the great Marc Laimon for game plans & in-corner adjustments to further aide his effort. That said, he’s yet to face anything close to the level of Struve’s ground game(much less anyone that can imitate his size & style). Struve has also been working extensively with Neil Melanson(widely considered one of the best Grappling for MMA coaches in the game), who at 6’7″ 270 lbs. also provides the physicality & hands-on training that Stefan’s needed in the past.

Not to mention Neil is one of the best Triangle-Choke technicians out there(Author of “Mastering Triangle Chokes”), As I suspect he’ll be able to help Struve with his favorite submission(8 wins via Triangle). I hope I don’t come off as discounting or disrespecting Rosholt, as I’m a fan of him and his team(Even touting him as a prospect early in his career). But with that said, this match broken down on paper will be very difficult for him.

With all but one of Struve’s losses coming in the first round, the facts suggest Rosholt will have to get it done early. That not being Jared’s strong suit, most see his best path to victory in grinding this one out. However, Struve has never dropped a decision in his career as he shows a knack for recovering, sweeping, and swaying himself back into fights. I don’t know if Rosholt makes it out of the kitchen without being burned in this one.

Official Pick: Struve – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Rosholt – Decision.

Summary:

In a promising scrap of Lightweight grapplers, Jake Mathews collides with Akbarh Arreola. This will be the stiffest test of the Australians career given Akbarh’s extensive experience. Starting off on the feet, Arreola shows an awkward but effective style as measures and manages distance. Akbar will use his proding right hand to set up hard left kicks(primarily to the body). Though these will be open with Mathews orthodox stance, it’s Akbrah’s uppercuts that will serve him best.

Often leading with his head on entry, Jake has shown uppercut susceptibilities in all 3 of his UFC bouts. Though possessing a solid chin himself, Mathews will have to mind this in his advance. Jake being only 21 makes his fight-to-fight improvements massive, as he’s shown to add variety & fluidity to his striking. This however makes him hard to value accurately as I give a slight edge standing to Arreola.

I feel Jakes best chances in this fight will be his grappling pressure. Though Akbar is arguably more crafty & experienced, I believe Mathews grinding style will pose problems. Jake will however have to find success in the clinch first, which will be this fights key junction. Though caught speeding in his last time out(Guillotined by Vick), I suspect Mathews has learned from this mistake. He will however have to show improved TD fluidity from the clinch to ground Arreola.

Akbarh can be difficult to deal with as she shows good hand fighting/grip disruption in close. That said, he struggles once on bottom as he mainly operates from closed guard. Aside from his Edwards fight, Akbar has shown a lack of ground agency as he’s largely ate shots while searching for Arm-bars. Though Akbar is proven hard to finish, I suspect Jakes top pressure and elbows will earn him rounds should he not find an opening to close. As we’ve seen before, Arreola possesses plenty of tools to play spoiler, and with that I caution any plays on this one.

Official Pick: Mathews – Decision

Official Outcome: Mathews – TKO(Doctors stoppage) – Round 2.

Summary:

In a battle of experienced Welterweights, Kyle Noke meets Peter Sobotta. With Noke showing to struggle of late as Sobotta has seemingly resurged, this fight should tell us a lot about each man’s career trajectory. On the feet, Kyle will march forward measuring with his improved kicking variety. In close, Noke also wields deadly knees & hooks that should keep Sobotta honest. It’s in Kyle’s defense and hand positioning that presents him problems.

Though the gritty Australian’s durability has allowed him to get away with low hands, his defenses have been exposed in his last few outings. Counter susceptibility aside, his style may be weathering his chin as he’s been dropped/hurt 5 times in his last 2 fights. This makes for some live intangibles standing with Sobotta’s improving striking. Though not shy to attack, Peter’s shown a lot of improvement on his distance management.

Measuring with a solid right jab, Sobotta will look to set up hard left kicks(primarily to the body). When opponents choose to counter his style with aggression, Peter shows an excellent ability to time & transition into effective TD’s. With Noke’s shown TD Vulnerability, I suspect this to play a huge key in the fight. This could be especially bad for the Australian should he not have shored up his defenses.

Noke, who traditionally struggles on bottom, shows little scramble variety as he will generally lock up full guard. This may stall Peter’s advances, but will unlikely win him rounds or sway fight momentum. Don’t get me wrong, Noke more than has the heart and capabilities to upset here, I just see him at a constant hair behind the more well rounded Sobotta.

Official Pick: Sobotta – Decision

Official Outcome: Noke – TKO – round 1.

Summary:

In this Light-Heavyweight tilt, Gian Villante draws a road game against the hometown favorite Anthony Perosh. At 43 years of age and still fighting at the highest level, it’s hard not to admire “The Hippo”. Perish however will have his work cut out for him stylistically against the always tough Villante. Gian, who initially bursted onto the scene outshining his training partner Chris Weidman, has since struggled with inconsistent performances. Though still not leaning on his wrestling base offensively, Villante has shown strides in his striking game.

Despite the outcome of his last fight, Gian’s also shown a clear effort & improvement in his defense, discipline, and overall MMA game. Starting on the feet, Perosh employs a traditional Boxing style as he’ll generally circle & prod with his jab. When circling Anthony will have to be careful as he tends to move left. Not only has he eaten right hands in this fashion, but this movement will also run him into Gian’s thudding right leg kicks. Though Anthony’s head movement has improved since working at Jackson-Winks, he still shows to get caught upright on entries.

On paper, Perosh’s style doesn’t bode well with Gian’s aggressive counter hooks & uppercuts. Though I give Villante an edge standing, it’s on the ground where Perish will have a stronger foothold. The problem with that scenario is that I’m not confident in Anthony’s wrestling chops or athleticism to get it there. Not only has Gian showed good TD defense(89% in UFC), his overall movement limits TD availabilities. As stated before, I have a strong bias in wanting to see older fighters upset the odds. And though I’d love nothing more than to see Perish win on such a stage, I feel his “Finish or be Finished” career trend will work against him here.

Official Pick: Villante – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Villante – KO – round 1.

Summary:

In another potentially fun Flyweight affair, Richie Vaculik greets Danny Martinez. With both men being tough, durable, and aggressive fighters, expect a high momentum shifting pace. On the feet, Richie shows more of a traditional boxing attack from Orthodox. Possessing a solid jab-cross, he’ll need to effectively wield straight punches if he means to mange Martinez’s aggression. Though showing striking improvements, it doesn’t take much before Danny falls into his brawling nature.

In Martinez’s wild offensive entries, will be Vaculik’s best chances to do damage in this fight. Richie however, will have to tread carefully given his own defensive liabilities. With a tendency to lower hands and expose his head off punches, Richie will have to mind this and respect Danny’s power. Given Richie’s orthodox stance and said defense, Danny’s proven left hand will surely be his best option. Though I give Martinez a slight edge in the striking and chin department, he’ll have to be aware of Vaculik’s recoverability & staying power.

We’ve seen Danny near finish opposition early, only to let them back in for a win later. I feel Richie’s best area for success will be on the ground. Though I also give a slight edge to Danny in wrestling, he shows take down availabilities with his aggressive forward pressure. Should Martinez find himself on the ground, he’ll have to be especially careful in standing. With the shown effectiveness of Richie’s scrambling, Danny will have to mind his usual “Turtle get-ups”. In doing this, he’s shown to give his back which could cost him the round at the very least with Vaculik(5 of 6 sub wins by RNC).

That said, Danny shows otherwise good grappling competency and G&P that Richie will have to deal with should end up on bottom. With said potential momentum swings & intangibles, I suggest avoiding and enjoying this one.

Official Pick: Martinez – Decision

Official Outcome: Martinez – Unanimous Decision.

Summary:

Stepping in on short notice, Anton Zafir ceases his opportunity against James “Moonwalker” Moontasri. With Anton taking this fight on a weeks notice and holding roughly 14 minutes of online footage, excuse my enthusiam as I’ll keep this short. From what I gather on Zafir he shows a standard variety of kickboxing as he’ll commit forward into combinations. In doing this he seems to primarily use it as an opportunity to drive his opponents toward the fence. From here she shows your standard double to single-leg varieties. Once on the floor, he shows to be happy staying in half guard landing strikes.

Being only KO’d once in his career, he’s seemingly been successful on the Australian circuit(even earning himself a Title). James Moontasri however, has seen this and faced higher competition in and out of the Octogan. Despite the Tae Kwon Do accolades it’s counter punching and timing that’s most impressive. Possessing a solid check hook, it’s his intercepting right uppercut that will serve him best. The little footage I saw on Zafir had one common thread standing, which was his low and forward head positioning on entries.

Though I’m sure Anton’s been getting some work in since his last fight in March of this year, but shoring up second nature on a weeks notice can be tough. Look for Moonwalkers right uppercut here, as I predict this one ends before the third. I apologize if I sound overly dismissive to Zafir as I feel an upset for him would be classic storylines, but I have to play the odds on this one. Moontasri is definitely worth looking at for any of your Fantasy plays.

Official Pick: Moontasri – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Moontasri – TKO – round 1.

Summary:

In another classic battle of old & young lions, Daniel Kelly welcomes Steve Montgomery to Australia. With a solid fourteen years between them, expect the intangibles to be obvious here. Even at this advanced stage of Daniel’s career, he still shows the mental will & physical skill to compete in the UFC. From the on paper miles to the visible dis-jointment of his walking gate, perhaps his recent void of Judo/TD attempts is no coincidence. Primarily electing to stand, Kelly has worked a lot on his boxing.

Using a measuring right jab, Daniel will also mix in feints in order to draw out counters. From here, he’ll look to time his oncoming opposition with his left hand.  With his deceptive power, his left hand will be his best weapon this fight given Montgomery’s defense. Though I consider Steve the more well-rounded & dangerous striker, his slightly low hand positioning amplifies his left hand vulnerabilities(Seen repeatedly in Jardine & Sims fight).

When you’re as tall as Montgomery(6’7″), your hand positioning & strike retraction count for double as mistakes cost you more. That said, Steve has been training hard with some of the sports best(ATT), as I expect him to continue his trend of fight-to-fight improvements. With Kelly’s predictability on the feet, Montgomery will need to utilize his kicking variety. Though possessing a strong left head kick, his knees & switch right kick will serve him best.

Daniel tends to feint heavily forward/low(especially off his cross) putting him in harms way of Steve’s rangy knees. Montgomery’s right switch kick could also limit the availability of Kelly’s aforementioned left hand, even possibly catching him clean given his tendency to lean heavily left. Though Kelly should have the on paper grappling edge, I’m not sure how successful he’ll be in corralling Steve, much less grounding him.

Athletic differences aside, Kelly’s clinch TD’s are stylistically a tall order while at a clear height and frame disadvantage. Less we not forget that the ground is also Montgomery’s strong suit as he shows a solid competency here. I also believe him moving up in weight class will add to his strength and minimize his intangibles for his travel. Though I have a natural bias to root for the older fighters, I suspect youth takes this one. Just like the jungle, the Octagon also bares a delicate and cruel eco-system.

Official Pick: Montgomery – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Kelly – Unanimous Decision.

Summary:

In this battle of Aussie vs Aussie, Richard Walsh faces Steve Kennedy for home turf supremacy. Despite having Pro Boxing & Muay Thai experience, Kennedy shows low hands and little footwork. Using head movement & stagnancy inside range, Steve will attempt to draw out counters. As traditional to a fighter that moves his head but not his feet, he’s susceptible to body shots and leg kicks. Given his hand positioning & opponent, Kennedy will have to be most weary of the overhand right. Though Richard’s striking credentials are listed as amateur, he shows to be the more effective standing.

Aside from lacking in overall pace & volume, Walsh is the more aggressive man as he’ll consistently come forward in attack. His right hand isn’t his only weapon as he also possesses nice body kicks, and will set up a nice switch high kick. He generally won’t trade long before engaging in his appetite of clinching opponents to the cage. Though wielding good knees & elbows here, Richard has shown to lull the action in his willingness to stay here. Even after hurting his opposition he’s shown to allow them back into the fight by overstaying his welcome in this space.

It’s here where Kennedy will have his best chances to win this fight. With his Judo & Greco-Roman base, Steve wields a nice variety of clinch trips & take downs. Should he get Walsh grounded, I suspect Kennedy will have an advantage on the floor(at least on top) making the clinch a “key junction”. I predict this fight will be a low scoring(an possibly sloppy) affair that will mostly be contested in clinch space. Given the big hometown show and both men likely fighting for their jobs, the pressure cooker will be turned to high as I strongly suggest avoidance here.

Official Pick: Walsh – Decision

Official Outcome: Walsh – Decision.

Summary:

In my pick for potential “Fight of the Night”, Ryan Benoit an Ben Nguyen collide down under. With both men’s style and aggressive nature, this is one of the few Flyweight bouts where judges shouldn’t be needed. Coming off his comeback win over Sergio Pettis, Benoit will be looking to make a more positive statement in Australia. Since his last fight he’s shown to make big efforts in improving, from his physical preparation to working with Kenny Monday & Team Take Down. Ryan’s mainly showed an emphasis on improving his hands(even going to Cannelo’s gym in Mexico) which he’ll need if he means to beat Nguyen.

Possessing nice power kicks from Southpaw, Ryan will primarily wing hard hooks & uppercuts off his steadily improved head movement. The problem with Benoit’s primarily power shot attacks, is that he’ll consistently put himself out of position opening him up to counter strikes. Ryan will have to be especially careful here with Ben’s accurate & aggressive punch styling. Though appearing early in his career to be a grappler with a TKD base, Nguyen’s showed massive improvements to his striking the past 3 years.

Often switching stances, he primarily fancies his left hand cross(from southpaw) and left hook(from orthodox). These punches should serve him well and have ample opportunity in this fight. Ben however has defensive liabilities of his own, especially on the feet. Consistently and aggressively moving forward, Ben has shown to be very hittable when entering & exiting range(right hands in particularly). Thought showing an improved approach of head movement, he’ll tend to dip his head ow in effort to “sell” an attack.

This could however present openings for Benoit’s well polished uppercut-hook combinations. Thought Ryan’s toughness & durability has allowed him success standing in such brawls, I wouldn’t recommend it here. I suspect he’ll lean on his wrestling skills in close range where I feel he has the advantage in this fight. Given Nguyen’s shown take down vulnerability, Ryan can possibly get on top and sway the rounds. Showing strong ground strikes and second nature back-takes, these are Benoit’s best ground attributes.

However he’s traditionally struggled when on bottom, as he relies on an explosive bridge being his main initiative. For this reason I give the overall ground edge to Nguyen with his wide variety of scrambles & submission threats. With his last few opponents looking to get him grounded, Ben shows consistent get up abilities while showing no signs of tiring. Despite being a strongly conditioned athlete, Benoit’s said power shot style has also shown to tax him by the second round(especially if it’s not going his way).

His skill & pure toughness has shown he can get things done late as well as early. However the longer this fight goes, it will favor Ben(who also cuts a lot less weight). This one is insanely close and with that said, I slightly lean toward Ben to outlast/capitalize on openings. Though this should be a high scoring affair(Fantasy MMA) I’d caution parlay picks and instead suggest to sit back and enjoy the fireworks.

Official Pick: Nguyen – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Nguyen – Submission – round 1.