Summary:

In Melbourne’s main event, Holly Holm will finally get her chance at Ronda Rousey and the Bantamweight Title. With this fights popularity and promotion, It can be hard to see the forrest through the trees. In this analysis I’ll attempt an overhead view as I try to trim the fat for you. From Holly’s arguably inflated accolades, to her conservative footwork based approach, many pundits & fans alike have already drawn forgone conclusions. Though 20 to 1 odds don’t help the argument, I still find this very amusing given the general hypothetical hypothesis on beating Rousey. In the wake of Rousey’s often single round storms, it’s left many people wondering how she would fair against a superior striker who can stay away from her game.

Whether you think Holm can beat Ronda or not, She certainly has the distance management & discipline to present said challenge. To quote Robyn Black, Holly is more of a “Play-runner” as she shows a machine-like consistency in her attack and approach. Her key to distance control and attack angles come off her circling style. Holly will circle to her left defensively or to reset, and will circle right to set up attack angles that force opponents to their weak side(being that she’s a southpaw primarily facing orthodox opposition). Off this movement, Holly shows a myriad of combinations in which she’ll use to set up hard body or head kicks.

It should however be noted that Holm’s faced largely lower level competition who played this distance game, a luxury I’m not sure she’ll have with Ronda’s renown pressure fighting. Though disciplined with her movement, Holly will need to lean on her lead leg side-kick to aid her distancing. Where as Holly’s best offensive tool will be her left liver kick. Ronda’s shown a solid chin to go along with her mental toughness, but liver shots supersede all that as we’ve seen body work be a strength in Holm’s past. The predicament I see in Holly’s kicking game is that she’ll often set them up with short/shallow punches which open her up to counters(particularly right hands as seen in the Pennington fight).

Considering Ronda wields a deadly right hand over the top, this should be the strike/opening Ronda needs to enter and sway momentum. Though Holm doesn’t posses traditional KO power in her hands, Rousey will still need to be mindful on her entries as she is hittable. I know it’s a small sample size, but Ronda has been consistently hit(although not hurt) by 2-3 straight punches in the first 30 seconds of 5 out of 6 UFC bouts. That said, Holly’s chances of stopping her entries are low, as an aggressive Rousey entry is near certain. Though Holly has shown an improved clinch awareness, her grappling experience suggests she lacks the competitive tools to defend.

Should Holly find herself on bottom, it will be the first time in her career which is a scary proposition in it’s own right. With said lacking ground experience, I can’t in honesty tell you what she will or won’t do under such pressure. I’d imagine at that point Holly will begin to feel like the Biker Gang from “A Bronx Tale”, when Chazz Palminteri locks them in the bar and says,”Now you can’t leave.” If Holm can cease Rousey’s progress before the fight even gets there, then she may be able to build her own momentum. But to me, this match isn’t about the “if” as much as it’s about the “when”.

Official Pick: Rousey – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: To be determined.