UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson

Official Pick: Magomedov – TKO – Round 2

Official Outcome: Magomedov – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

For the womens main card slot we have Juliana Pena vs. Jessica Eye. This is an important fight for the division and should answer questions about both girls. Jessica, one of the better undersized Bantamweights in the UFC, has set herself apart from the pack with her striking. Starting from the opening bell, She’ll throw in volume bursts looking to capitalize on counter punching. Juliana however, barring Rousey, is the fastest starter in the division.

Not mincing intentions on the feet, Pena makes aggressive entries off wild hooks, closing the distance to the fence. In this specific transition, will it be Eye’s best chances of catching Pena(Who on her striking entries has shown to leave her head vulnerable). Against the cage, Eye has shown an improved TD defense(shown in Tate fight). In particular the fore-arm to elbow framing used by many strikers to create space off the fence. Showing to struggle in the past when pressure fought, I don’t see Jessica holding off Pena for long.

Once this fight hits the mat, expect Juliana to waste no time closing the show. Eye lacks overall activity/urgency on the floor, where defensively she puts her effort to stalling & stifling. This may keep her safe from immediate submissions, but will only get her into trouble with Pena, who I see positionally out working Eye, and overwhelming her with strikes to give her the first TKO of her career.

Official Pick: Pena – TKO – Round 1

Official Outcome: Pena – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

In this solid match up of top Flyweights, Joseph Benavidez meets Ali Bagautinov. Ali who has an extensive Combat Sambo/Wrestling background, has proven to be one of the divisions most tough & durable fighters. Where as Benavidez has shown a “tough & durable” career, fighting and defeating most of the best fighters in the world. It is also important to note that this is Bagautinov’s first fight back in over 14 months(since testing positive for EPO). On the feet, Ali tends to circle the outside Octagon lines, looking for counter hooks to the head. Given the opportunity he will look to forward pressure to cage clinches.

From here, he’ll  threaten heavy clinch punches to open up TD opportunities. Ali has also shown to play stance switching, incorporating body kicks when he feels comfortable. However Benavides’s aggressive style & work rate, can very well stifle Ali’s game. With a huge footwork and slight speed advantage, Joe should be able to dictate standing. Benavidez shows improved head movement off his punches. I see his heavy handed hooks, which he’ll follow up with well disguised kicks, should keep Ali guessing. I do however see Ali being successful in scoring TD’s. Joe has shown he can be taken down, but I doubt Ali can hold him down and get off here. Joe’s scrambling abilities are incredible, whether he uses it to get back to his feet or score submissions. So long as Joe’s cardio holds up, I see him out working/edging Bagautinov out. With a finish unlikely here, I think it would be a good idea to pass on this for your Fantasy Drafts.

Official Pick: Benavidez – Unanimous Decision

Official Outcome: Benavidez – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

In another fun stylistic match up, Yair Rodriguez draws Daniel Hooker. Both men are young rising prospects who show major improvements between every fight. Though often showing defensive disregard, Daniel is the more aggressive & consistent in his attack. Where as Yair will wildly commit to a seemingly endless arsenal of creative offense. In Hookers last fight, he showed an improvement in defensive movement which will be something he needs here. Daniel also surprised us last time out by fighting Southpaw for the first time in his career. A questionable risk given that it was against an opponent who wanted to take him down. None the less, he stuck to his plan and scored the knock out.

If you factor in all the above information, If can be very hard to predict how either of these two come out. What I can tell you is that both men are most vulnerable to bod kicks & overhands standing. This is where I expect Yair to thrive, offering more of a diverse attack, with potentially momentum shifting strikes. Even if Yair’s “Flashy” strikes don’t land/damage, they traditionally score well with the Judges(especially when thrown late in rounds Ala Jon Jones). Hooker however, has a durable chin and “serial killer-like” stalking abilities. It’s those specific attributes that he’ll have to lean on to make this an inside-range fight.

If he can pressure Yair repeatedly, the volume could be troublesome for the Mexican prospect. Although Rodriguez, who has improved his wrestling, is also not afraid to pull guard.  And given Yair’s camp & opponents style, I suspect he’ll try to close this one out on the mat. His length & creativity translates even better off his back(a place most avoid this day in MMA). He uses his long legs to lock up Triangle/modified Corner locks. From here he attacks(or sweeps) seamlessly with leg locks, arm bars, and chokes. Thought Daniel Hooker shows good composure & submission defense, I’m not sure he makes it out of the kitchen without being burned here. Both men are high scorers, but unless Hooker can “Matt Brown” this kid, I expect Yair’s offense to stifle, if not catch the Kiwi.

Official Pick: Rodriguez – Submission – Round 2

Official Outcome: Rodriguez – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

You can’t bring a card to Texas without a shoot out, and here it is. The always entertaining Alan Jouban meets the dangerous Albert Tumenov. I’m not gonna lie, this is probably the fight I’m looking forward to most on the card. As much as I could pontificate on each fighters standing abilities, I’ll stead trim the fat to give you the meat & potatoes here. Starting off on the feet, Jouban has been known to get his rhythm slowly while seemingly taking damage early. Where as Tumenov, traditionally comes out and matches/adapts to his oppositions pace, and looks to find/exploit opponents early.

This won’t be Tumenov’s first southpaw, as he’s faced 2 in his recent UFC career. Jouban however, will be one of the more faster/dangerous strikers Albert has faced. Alan fights a high break-neck pace that can steal the momentum of this fight, especially if Albert fails to control the distance/get a stop early. Tumenov also shows good cardio, but it will certainly be tested in this fight. Despite not being the longest Welterweight, Albert controls the striking distance well. Possesing a solid jab, he’ll also use efficient footwork to angle off right cross counters/attacks.

His best weapon is his “Clean-up Hitting” left hook. A weapon that he throws with consistent accuracy, should play a factor in this fight. Given Jouban’s tendency to keep his head exposed in pocket exchanges, he’ll drop his right shoulder/guard in mid-strike momentum while throwing the left. This in particular makes him vulnerable to left hooks(See Baczynski fight). Albert also deals out a nasty switch left head kick, but I think his right head kick will suit him better this fight. Alan has a defensive tendency to lean/slip heavy to his left, borderline exposing that side(especially as his hands drop during heated exchanges).

Tumenov shows good defense except for his shown vulnerability/willingness to eat body shots. This is one of two “Keys to Victory” I see for Jouban standing. Alan possesses accurate liver kicks & knees to the body that could give him the momentum swings he needs given Alberts durable chin. Though Alan may be more defensively liable with his chin, his second key(and needed objective) should be to pressure fight Albert into cage space. This is something Alan naturally does already in fights, but will need it in full force for this match up. From here, Jouban has a better clinch striking game, where I feel Tumenov can be fed elbows from.

As far as any ground stanzas go, neither man show interest in taking it there. Jouban(a Brown Belt under Eddie Bravo) has a decent rubber guard game, but it should be negated by Alberts solid posture awareness & effective ground and pound. Jouban however, has been working extensively with Kenny Johnson(Bolt Wrestling) and would not be surprised to see him attempt TD’s. If he can get Albert down, his best chances are from top-side half guard. Albert has a very strong bridge he’ll use to get out of mount/side control to create escapes/scrambles. But by holding a Half Guard from the top, it will neutralize Albert’s game, and perhaps open up elbow opportunities for Jouban.

I’m a big fan of Alan Jouban fights but I feel he’s the much more liable man here. For that reason I’m slightly leaning toward the more durable & dangerous Tumenov. I can even see him getting a stop on Jouban here should he get too reckless. Just remember that this is the most palpable gun fight on the card and should be treated as such. Should you choose either men for your Fantasy picks, their output, knockdowns, and finish rates make them high scoring selections.

Official Pick: Tumenov – Split Decision

Official Outcome: Tumenov – KO

Summary:

In this Straw weight bout, we have two potential talents in Rose Namajunas & Angela Hill. Rose is a very dangerous but emotional fighter who had a lot of pressure/expectations on her coming out of the TUF house. Now, almost 10 months removed from her last fight, She’s looking to rebound against the ever improving Hill. Angela, who has a strong Muay Thai background, showed in her last fight against Kagan that she has a lot of potential for this game. But she’ll need to replicate that particular performance to win here. With Rose who’s at her best when given space to conduct, Hill will need to stalk forward with her active work rate and force her to a cage clinch.

From here Angela has some very accurate knees that can steal her some momentum for this fight. Rose also showed to struggle here in her fight with Calderwood. Hill however, will need to mind Rose’s guard pulls, which can be equalizing in their own right. If Angela fails to keep pressure in any fashion, Rose will have the opportunity to gain momentum. Namajunas shows a good subtle stance switching in her movement. She favors right leg kicks off combos, and left head kick set ups off a southpaw stance. Her most effective strike is the check hook(either stance) which I believe will give Hill trouble.

No matter the styles, female fights tend to go everywhere. That being said, I give Rose a distinct advantage on the ground. With her superior scrambling & submission abilities, I would not be surprised if she catches something here. However there are 2 intangible factors you should keep in mind for this fight. Firstly, Angela Hill’s Athleticism/fight to fight improvements.  Hill is both young in years & experience, with that in mind, She could surprise everyone showing new skills. The second intangible factor is Rose’s potential to fade. She’s shown that as the fight progresses(especially when not her way) she struggles/mentally fatigues. Unless you’re very confident in Rose, I’d avoid any Fantasy plays here.

Official Pick: Namajunas – Submission – Round 2

Official Outcome: Namajunas – Submission – Round 1

Summary:

In a card full of competitive match ups, this one nears the top for me. We have rising Dagestani prospect Islam Makhachev, meeting the dangerous & talented Adriano Martins. For Martins, this will be a similar stylistic match up to his last fight against Rustam Khabilov. The difference being Makhachev, a Southpaw of more conservative striking variety, who also shows to be a more aggressive & efficient grappler. On the feet, Makhachev keeps a good outside distance until blitzing forward winging aggressive but accurate hooks. He’ll use these as entry vehicles for his clinch. Here Makhachev will “make his money”, dirty boxing his way into his solid chain of Sambo trips/throws. He also wields a good check right hook, which Martins can be susceptible to given his habit of leaving his head high and in range when finishing combos.

Martins has however shown striking improvements defensively & offensively since training with ATT. His overall experience shines through primarily in the “Timing” dept. of his strikes & transitions. Adriano will prod/conduct with his right hand only to intercept/time the left. This could prove particularly useful with Makhachev’s wide open blitz attacks(where I feel his chin will be tested in this fight). As far as Makhachev’s highly regarded clinch/clinch TD game, I’m not so sure Martins will make himself available there. With his own strong frame & grappling IQ, Martins doesn’t show too much trouble in escaping/exiting bad spots. More specifically in his last fight(Against a similar grappling style) he used his underrated wrestling, and times double legs to thwart his opponents offense.

That being said, I believe Makhachev has better(all be it not by much) TD/TD defense than Martins or his last opponent(Khabilov). No matter who initiates it, this one should be largely decided on the mat, where I see both men looking for subs, but ultimately fighting for round advantages. Though he doesn’t show a lot of his ground skills in MMA, Martins is very crafty & dangerous on the mat. But he’s more of a top position player, favoring top-side Half Guard. From here, Adriano has a wide range of attacks and passing threats. If he manages to get Makhachev here, then we will really him tested. But given Makhachevs consistent ability to grip fight out of bad spots and use positional controls in the good spots, I see it enough to edge out Martins.

Make no mistake here, Martins has the ability to spoil, and will certainly test the Dagestan. I would avoid all plays & fantasy picks here, instead I encourage you sit back and enjoy.

Official Pick: Makhachev – Split Decision

Official Outcome: Martins – KO – Round 1

Summary:

This is a very interesting match up of experience vs. youth. Not only is the victory important to both fighters, but for better or worse, the future for each man will be a lot more clear when this is over. Since both men strongly lack offensive wrestling in their game plans & attacks, I expect this one to be decided on the feet. Though both men have actively improved their TD defense, I give Cariaso the on paper edge in grappling. Sergio has an ever improving active guard game, but I don’t see him catching Chris with subs or stifling him with his wrist control. Most importantly, Sergio shows a surprising lack of scrambling urgency/IQ, which leads me to think that any intangible advantages also go to Chris.

Official Pick: Pettis – Unanimous Decision

Official Outcome: Pettis – Unanimous Decision

Summary:

In this Heavyweight match up we have a classic Striker vs. Grappler. Off first glance it’s easy to see why standing favors Lewis. Pesta shows glaring defensive liabilities form his hand positioning to overall striking stiffness. Add to the equation that Viktors a slow starter and you’ll see that Lewis’s best shot at taking him out will be in the first 3 minutes of this fight. Though Lewis is aggressive, he shows a somewhat sporadic fight rate. In the beginning of every one of his UFC fights, Derrick touched gloves and immediately shuffled back to reset himself on the outside Octagon lines. Of course he’ll come forward and attack when given any momentum openings, but by not pressuring immediately he could give Pesta the space to make him fight in his world.

Though Viktor traditionally will counter opponents forward pressure with level change TD’s, He will also commit to wild 3-2-3(hook, cross, hook) combos for offensive TD entries. Now what’s impressive about Pesta’s game, is his consistency in which it’s applied. Going back to his very first fight, Viktor will look for TD’s in aforementioned ways, either passing to side control during TD transitions, or “ground & pounding” his way there. From here, he looks to achieve the crucifix position(which he establishes in 92% of his career matches) and will keep a high work rate in looking for the finish.

Derrick Lewis has made active improvements to his counter wrestling but I have a hard time seeing him stop a determined Pesta. And although Derricks sheer size & strength have gotten him out of bad spots on the ground, Pesta’s the more efficient & athletic scrambler which should prove the difference. I am fairly confident Pesta gets it done inside the distance here, but should either man win, they’ll likely score you high in Fantasy points.

Official Pick: Pesta – TKO – Round 2

Official Outcome: Lewis – TKO – Round 3

Summary:

It’s rare that the opening bout of the evening excites me, but this match does. We have “up and coming” Sage Northcutt vs the dangerous Francisco Trevino. Frank is a Muay Thai stylist with a BJJ brown belt fighting out of Macaco Gold Team. Where as undefeated Northcutt comes out of Gracie Barra(purple belt) with a wealth of experience in traditional martial arts.”Undefeated” fighters outside the UFC can be difficult to value, though I feel Trevino, who has recently had his streak snapped, has still not shown where he’s really at. Keep in mind his only loss comes to one of the divisions best prospects(Johnny Case) in a high altitude fight coming off over a year layoff(Although honest reference points are compromised due to the 1sth round intangible eye poke factor).

What Francisco does do well is accumulating damage on the feet. Trevino consistently switches stances while aggressively countering/trying to draw the counter. From Southpaw, he favors left body kicks offensively with counter right hooks defensively. From Orthodox, he’ll gauge with primarily naked leg kicks as he eventually works his way in looking for elbows. Defensively overall however, Francisco tends to shell & step back, which opens him up for follow up strikes/TD’s. The hinge to Trevino’s stand up style is  the distance management. Unfortunately for him, managing distance is an advantage Northcutt holds over most opponents. It is also in my opinion the “Key Factor” standing and possibly overall in this fight.

Sage’s traditional martial arts striking has translated strongest in the distancing dept. Whether he’s offensively exploding forward with his accurate shot selection, or defensively stifling distance with his lead left side kick, he shows overall good movement. Couple that with a speed & athleticism advantage, and Sage should cause problems here. Don’t be mistaken though, standing is also where Trevino has his best shot at winning this fight. Despite a 5-0 record, Northcutt has been caught on the way in and stopped during his Amateur career.

I believe Sage’s best change of winning is by continuing his recent trend of taking his opponents down. Showing fight to fight improvements, Sage will strike his way into the clinch for TD’s, as opposed to hanging out on the feet. On the the ground he shows a natural & aggressive submission game, while still always looking for the back in scrambles. This could be especially problematic for Trevino given his poor TD defense, and propensity to give his back in scrambles/get ups. I’m not sure if Sage can get a stop of the floor, but thats where I see this one being decided.

Official Pick: Northcutt – Unanimous Decision

Official Outcome: Northcutt – TKO – Round 1