UFC 191: Johnson vs. Dodson – Breakdown

Official Pick: Johnson

Summary: 

The similarities in the supplementals above show just how much both these fighters careers have mirrored each other. Both men are Former UFC Heavyweight Champs who entered the organization around 21 yrs of age. This is a match that was originally supposed to happen roughly a decade ago, and since then both fighters have put on a lot of miles & wear. Which is why match ups with resurgent veterans like these can be hard to call, because it’s difficult to get a beat on who’s showing up. Looking at recent/relevant footage on these two, I believe this fight will take place on the feet. Mir has the edge on the ground, where under Ricky Lundell he’s improved his wrestling/TD entries and is not beyond pulling guard.  Still, I’m not sure it will be enough for Arlovski’s second nature footwork & clinch base/defense when he’s against the cage.

On the feet they both put together their combinations well, with the slight edge in speed going to Arlovski here. Andrei keeps good defensive technique & movement except when he’s moving forward in “offense mode”, his head goes high and chin comes up. Where as I feel Mir has the opposite defensive liabilities, but with a noticeable improvement in head movement during combos(credit to his boxing coach Angelo Reyes). Given the gamut of performances from both fighters this could potentially be a starring clinch fest on the feet, but I feel we could be in for a good old fashion gun fight.

Official Pick: Arlovski

Summary:

At first glance here Anthony Johnson’s talent & chin is more proven against the higher level & variety of opponents. Although Jimi Manuwa has only been stopped once, he’s shown a good durability and composure. Even with his opponent Johnson being in the UFC when Manuwa only began training martial arts, Manuwa will be one of the more technical KO strikers “Rumble” has faced. Jimi really impresses me with his feint set ups and the mis direction he conducts with his kicks. For a striker Manuwa will look for TD’s once in clinch position, but I doubt we’ll see him taking down Johnson in this contest. Manuwa has also finished 14/15  of his victories but all of his 3 UFC finishes have come by strange outlying scenarios(2 leg injuries, and a Doctors stoppage).

As far as overall striking goes, I gotta side with Johnson on proven power, chin, and overall activity here. I’m a big fan of his progression under Henry Hooft, Rumble isn’t just “Stalking” but is also defensively moving his head while loading offense/counter offense in simultaneous movements. Not to mention the latest edition to his camp, Neil Melanson who’s one of the sports top ground coaches. This could mean that Rumble may revisit his wrestling base(like he did against Dan Hardy who’s another technical striker) to acquire an additional edge here. Physically(and possibly mentally) Rumble tends to struggle when being pressure fought or the fight isn’t going his way. So unless Manuwa can hurt/frustrate Johnson early with disciplined offense, then this will be Johnson’s fight to lose here.

Official Pick: Johnson

Summary: 

I can very much understand why Jan Blachowicz is coming in as the favorite over Corey Anderson on paper. But I feel this is a good example of paper, not exactly representing where either two fighters are in their respective careers. Corey Anderson is potential talent who despite coming from a good wrestling base, has taken up quickly to striking/improving in all areas every time he steps in the Octagon. Although I don’t consider his last(and only) loss to be a condemnation of his chin, he does take a little more damage than he needs to for my liking. In particular, he’s shown a vulnerability to leg kicks and his lack of experience to adjust his game during  a fight. His last few camps have been with Mark Henry & Ricardo Almeida, who I’m sure are doing a great job with him, but Blachowicz can definitely hurt him standing if he’s not careful.

From recent in-fight to overall fight activity, Jan’s only been active in small spurts. This could largely be due to knee injuries that’s plagued him lately in his career. Never the less, he feints & throws intelligently and when he does open up he has the power to close the show. At this stage of his career I’m giving him a slight edge standing and on the ground overall. But if Corey can mix in TD’s with his newfound love for striking I can very much see him exhausting Jan’s defenses to victory.

Official Pick: Anderson

Summary:

Another fairly straight forward match up here. Both girls have shown to take damage on the feet, but can take it well. And with neither having anything particularly dangerous in said area, I don’t see this fight being decided here. Paige has shown to not mince strikes long before pushing forward with cage pressure to TD’s. This is where I feel Alex Chambers game particularly compliments Paiges. Alex tends to fight on the outside allowing her opponents to heavily dictate the fight, which in this case is terrible when facing someone with a relentless pace. Also factor in that when Alex has shown to fade, it’s been in rigorously “grinding” scenarios that Paige stylistically can bring.

Alex does transition really well from striking to level changing on TD’s, and is not beyond getting this done in the fight. Paige however, shows a freakish ability to scramble in these situations and often finds herself on top. When VanZant is on her back(although no official victories from here) shows a slick competent arm-bar game(Chambers only methods of defeat). Never count out Alex Chambers but unless Paige get’s caught speeding on the ground here, I don’t see her losing this fight.

Official Pick: VanZant

Summary:

Yet another fun match up on this card, but I feel this is one of the more straight forward ones. For obvious reasons on paper you can see why Felder is the favorite, But on a technical level I see big openings for Paul here. Although I like Pearson’s distance managing and feel he has the slight speed advantage, his defensive movement is what actually opens him up to be hit. When Pearson retreats, his head goes high as his arms almost open up to a “T” which for general reasons can be bad. More importantly, when he slips & rolls, his head comes way too low and out to the side. Now couple Pearson’s defensive habits with Paul Felder’s best offensive tools, being his ability to set up a variety of switch kicks & knees, and this spells trouble for the more shop worn Englishman.

Official Pick: Felder

Summary:

Equivalent to when Super Mario acquires the “star of invincibility”, is John Lineker in the way he stalks opponents with his power. He always keeps his level low & power loaded which allows him to defend TD’s & threaten offense consistently. Lineker should have the speed advantage against Rivera, but I do favor Francisco in the technical aspect of the striking dept. Not only that, this will by far be the most technical and dangerous opponent Lineker has faced on the feet. That being said, Rivera is 33 and although improving at this stage in his career, he’s also shown a high vulnerability to being hurt despite only one stoppage loss. Add the fact that Rivera’s lack of head movement makes him very touchable, it’s hard to argue that Linekers looping punches & body shots won’t pay dividends.

If Rivera decides to use utilize his wrestling by taking Linker down, he could steal rounds by controlling here. Lineker, despite competing in technical weight classes, utilizes little technique on the ground or off his back, where he’ll attempt poor leg locks with a reluctance to scramble. Despite obvious defensive liabilities I like Rivera overall here, but make no mistake, this is the closest you can get to a gunslinging match at 135.

Official Pick: Rivera

Summary:

In their first meeting, these ladies fought a closely contested affair. Both fighters style was displayed but the more consistent style(both literally & in favor of MMA judging) edged through. For this reason I’m giving the slight edge to Andrade in this match up. She fights consistently to her style of frame, and I believe that can be a problematic one for Pennington. Raquel will either have to hurt Andrade early and often, or display some newfound footwork & volume. Otherwise, she’ll likely be defending TD’s & offense with her back pressed against the cage all night. Although Pennington has shown an improvement in this area against what was thought to be a stronger grappler in Ashley Evans Smith, she’s still yet to show a consistency or edge in any particular dept. of the fight.

Where as I feel not only Andrade consistently fights best to her body type, but her improvements have all been in areas relevant to her overall game. It’s when Jessica is on top, and in guard baiting attacks to pass where she gets caught speeding. If “Rocky” Pennington comes in game mode she is more than skilled to compete here, but I’m siding with the more consistent fighter.

Official Pick: Andrade

Summary:

Tiago Trator is the only guy I can think of who fought Southpaw the majority of his career, only to switch Orthodox once arriving in the UFC. And despite not coming from any type of martial arts background, he looks the part of a natural striker. Just as oddly, his opponent Clay Collard comes from an experienced striking background(65-20 as an amateur boxer) yet keeps his head high, takes damage, and can show low/sloppy hands. Those things stated, they’ve both been effective with contrasting styles largely due to their aggression, mental toughness, and ability to take punishment. Naturally, predicting match ups like this can feel like you’re basically flipping a coin.

On the feet I’d like to say Clay’s hooks find their home off angles, and his uppercuts make Trator pay for tucking his head too low when under fire.. But I’m gonna side with Tiago who I feel has more horse power and gas here. If Clay can effectively mix in his TD attempts he could steal rounds from Tiago, but it’s doubtful he can do this or the latter intelligently without gassing. Slightly siding with the semi-short notice replacement here, but be well aware that this fight will probably be a sloppy contest of who wants it more.

Official Pick: Trator

Summary:

Joe Riggs may have a serious experience advantage on paper, but I consider both of these guys advanced fighters. Stallings, despite getting subbed by Phillipe Nover to kickstart his career in 2003, has been stopped 3 times(one via Doctors stoppage, another to freak slam).  Stallings main weakness I see going into this fight is his tendency to break his own positive rhythms/allow the fight to be dictated by his opposition. This was shown in recent fights with his willingness to engage in fence grappling exchanges, leaving him the one with his back to the fence. And with Riggs who’s shown an aggressive TD game from the clinch(Although using more strength than technique) this could cause problems and cost rounds for Stallings. Even if said scenario doesn’t play out, I’m not sure how reliable Riggs wrestling will be against the bigger stronger man.

Aside from the gym-to-fight inconsistency that’s troubled Riggs career, He cuts very easily and is injury prone. In fact, Joe has suffered multiple bizarre injuries this year. Most recently he’s coming off fractured hand injury into this fight. I think in this fight Riggs will pay for a lack of kick defense, which will open him up to Stallings angling attacks. I believe Stallings style & length should be enough to frustrate and-or hurt Riggs earning him the victory here.

Official Pick: Stallings

Summary: 

In this curtain jerking bout, what stands out about these two are their records. Inflated records on regional circuits are much more common than most know, but these records take it to another level. Both share multiple wins throughout their career against winless opponents. Undefeated to semi-intruiging records aside, I feel Silva will probably come forward with his signature “Thai-marching” style, looking to throw powerful hooks. Despite striking not being Malegarie’s strong suit, he shows decent head movement, and comes forward with punches for a purpose.

That purpose usually being to clinch/press his opponent to the cage and use his go to body lock TD’s & single-leg dumps. His Judo & grappling base allows him a strong top game where he uses powerful ground & pound to open up finishes. That’s what I expect to see here, but beware of this sloppy affair.

Official Pick: Malegarie