Summary:

The main event for UFC Brasilia is a catchweight contest as Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino meets Lina Lansberg. A long-time legend amongst female fighters, Cyborg will continue her quest into the biggest organization despite not competing at a traditional weight class. Looking to play the spoiler is Lina Lansberg, who traditionally plies her trade at bantamweight but was more than happy to jump on this opportunity when the big show came calling. Making history as Sweeden’s first female to compete in the UFC, she will attempt a much larger feat when she faces the Brazilian legend.

Although Lansberg has accrued a respectable record of 6-1 as a professional mixed martial artist, she has mainly competed in Muay Thai where she holds a record of 37-11 as well as multiple titles & accolades. Carrying over her well-rounded striking arsenal, Lansberg has steadily developed her surrounding game to support her strengths. Although here striking game translates well to the cage, Lina has a tendency to start slowly as this is also a carry-over from traditional Muay Thai. Against a more Chute Boxe based Thai fighter like Cyborg, Lansberg will likely find herself tested from the word go. The only striker that was successful in keeping Justino at bay in recent history was Jorina Baars.

Granted it was a Muay Thai fight against a Muay Thai champion, Baars was able to work her game after dropping Justino twice in the first round. Utilizing her advantage in length, Jorina was able to use her teep and leg kicks to distance Cris, and even catch her coming in. Although Lansberg has decent jab and teep she likes to work behind, she does not have near the same length as Baars, nor the speed to compensate for it. Despite having a good shot selection and showing the ability to put together combinations when necessary, her strike retractions aren’t the tightest as this may cost her against an aggressive swarmer. Couple that with her propensity to fight on the outside, and it becomes harder to like Lansberg’s chances.

However, Lansberg’s left hook is amongst her sharper tools as I see that being the punch to watch for in this fight. Although she primarily uses her hook as a connecting piece for combinations, Lina may find success with it if thrown as a check. Against the oncoming onslaughts of Cyborg, a check hook may be Lansberg’s best friend in rough spots and resets. That said, Cristiane Justino is no longer just a bloodthirsty brawler, as the Brazilian’s style has matured in the later part of her career. Moving shop the United States, Cyborg has found a solid fit in California as she has been working with Jason Parillo to sharpen up her striking. A coach who has helped refined fighters like BJ Penn and Michael Bisping, Parillo has also shown his skills through his work done with Cyborg.

Displaying a much more measured approach, Cyborg will steadily stalk forward while still managing the distance to her preferred terms. The Invicta champion has also improved her stance, showing to keep her balance much better as she now will rarely throw herself out of position. Prodding with a jab as she enters space, Cyborg needs all but the slightest bite to swarm her opposition with punches. Although her sample-size of opposition in Invicta make it hard to get a solid sense of where Cris is at, the footage released of her sparring top male boxers was shocking. Cyborg was essentially able to slip and roll with what were high volume punches, coming from a legitimate talent who was throwing with the speed and precision she will not likely see in the UFC.

Should this fight hit the clinch, expect Justino to have the advantage there as well. Despite wielding solid knees and elbows in close, Lina shows a lack of hip positioning and pummelling ability to compete with Cyborg’s improved wrestling. Favoring to work from a body-lock, Cris will look for outside trips or suplex variations when applicable. Even when unable to establish both under-hooks, Cris will gladly take an over-under position as she loves the lateral drop. Although Lansberg will likely have trouble defending, Cris will need to be mindful as Lina shows a good sense of things inside the scramble. Maintaining her composure at all times, Lina has the propensity to find the back when her opponent makes positional errors.

That said, I suspect Cyborg should have the advantage on the floor as her ground technics are underrated as well. Although each fighter is dangerous from topside, Justino should be the one who is dictating the terms of action. Even when caught on the bottom, Cris has always shown a solid urgency to get up and scramble for position. The biggest potential issue for Cyborg in this fight is the weight cut. Despite working with George Lockhart, Cris will be competing at a catchweight that is below her natural weight class(which she already had trouble making). Although I do not like these type of fighting terms, these will be the intangibles to look out for on fight week. Ultimately, crazy things happen on every fight card, but I doubt we see any of it here.

Official Pick: Cyborg – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Cyborg – TKO (round 2)

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC Brasilia features a featherweight fight between Renan Barao and Phillipe Nover. Coming off a failed debut to Jeremy Stephens earlier this year, Renan Barao will look to get back to the form that earned him the bantamweight title. Standing in his way is Phillipe Nover, who will be seeking to steal the spotlight with this showcase opportunity.

According to the odds, this showcase should favor the former champion, and it is hard to disagree. Stalking in a similar fashion to his Nova Uniao stablemates, Barao traditionally comes forward with a full clip on the ready. Wielding a classic Muay Thai repertoire, Renan will occasionally show his wild side with surprisingly accurate spinning attacks. Although his right-hand seems to be more prominent on the highlight reels, Barao possesses an effective left hook that may serve him well in this fight. Although Phillipe has made efforts in improving his boxing game to accompany his kicks at range, his head position is often upright and available for the counter.

With Nover’s stagnant head positioning in mind, Barao’s accurate hooking shots will be especially potent off of the breaks or on Phillipe’s entries. I suspect Nover’s best chances standing will come at range as tends to revert to out-fighting more often than not. That said, Renan is deceptively good at range as he offers an arsenal that is dynamic as well as accurate, not to mention his ability to make opponents miss. However, Nover will not be without opportunities on the feet as I feel his left body kick will be his best bet. Not only is the liver kick Nover’s best weapon, but Barao’s tendency to revert to a shell defense often opens him up for body shots and uppercuts.

With uppercuts being vacant from Phillipe’s arsenal, expect to see the body kick utilized by the Philipino at range. What usually helps open up Nover’s game is his improved wrestling. That said, Renan Barao is arguably the best wrestler to come out of Nova Uniao, a camp that is renown for producing fighters who can wrestle effectively in a caged environment. Not only should Barao be able to dictate where this fight takes place, but I also feel he is the better scrambler and overall ground fighter. Phillipe is no slouch when it comes to submissions and works well from a front headlock, but I don’t think he can compete with Renan in the transitions.

Whether Barao is forcing you into positions or cooking you slowly, he only needs but one tactical error to pounce as we saw this demonstrated beautifully in his fight with Michael McDonald. I believe Barao’s ability to float positions intelligently, as well as meld his wrestling and jiu-jitsu fluidly, will ultimately make the difference in ground exchanges. Although much crazier upsets have happened in MMA, I feel that a lot will have to go Phillipe’s way for him to find success in this styles matchup. I see Renan’s craft, skill sets, and overall volume either earning him a dominant decision or late finish in this fight.

Official Pick: Barao – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Barao – Decision

Summary:

Due to my affiliation with Xtreme Couture MMA, as well as the fact that I helped Roy Nelson’s camp in scouting Bigfoot Silva, I have exempted myself from making a pick for this fight. I apologize for shorting you a breakdown but hope you understand my efforts to maintain professionalism.

Official Pick: No pick.

Official Outcome: Nelson – Knockout

Summary:

In what I feel is the closest fight of the night, Francisco “Massaranduba” Trinaldo takes on Paul “The Irish Dragon” Felder. A fan favorite in Brazil, Francisco Trinaldo has steadily accrued more eyes upon him with his exciting fight style and inspiring story. Now riding a 6-fight winning streak in the UFC’s deepest division, Massaranduba will attempt to cement his status as a contender at the age of 38-years old. Looking to crash the party is Paul Felder, who is building on some wins of his own as he also seeks the next step in his career.

On the feet, each man employs a Muay Thai maelstrom but does so in different ways. As the more traditional stalker, Felder will throw his diverse arsenal of attacks off of feints and shuffle-steps forward. Mixing-in accurate spinning attacks from his Tae Kwon Do base, Paul’s ability to keep himself on balance and reset technically is very impressive. That said, Felder has admitted that he can become predictable in his overall movement, and has subsequently struggled with technically proficient strikers who can counter(Barboza & Pearson). Although Trinaldo is more associated with his aggression and power inside the pocket, he has steadily developed a countering game from the outside.

A product of his evolution in energy management, Massaranduba will circle much more on the outside as this helps him avoid his brawling nature. Not only does this allow room for Francisco to breathe and reset, but it can also allow for tactical advantages depending on the matchup. As we saw in his fight with Ross Pearson, Trinaldo kept a distance from the better pocket puncher and instead looked to counter on his terms. I suspect Massaranduba will elect to do the same in this fight, especially when you consider Paul’s propensity to come to his opponent. Although Felder has recently incorporated Nick Catone and Mark Henry to help him broaden this aspect, we have still yet to see any drastic changes in his approach which makes me lean toward Trinaldo in regards to stylistic edges.

Felder also tends to get fired up after getting tagged, which only makes me further think that technics will play less of a role standing as this fight goes on. Considering that Francisco is traditionally a fast starter in comparison to Felder’s slower starts, expect the first round to go to the Brazilian. That said, the second round will likely be a key factor for the trajectory of this fight(should it go that long). Not only does Trinaldo typically tire as the fight wears on, but Felder is the type of guy who gets stronger the longer things go. Although Francisco has improved his energy management as of late, there are still some common threads in his third rounds that show themselves in both victory and defeat.

Trinaldo’s heart and will alone has gotten him out of bad spots, kept him in fights he was losing, and even earned him some close decisions. That said, he has struggled with anyone who can survive his storms and get up from his takedowns. Enter Paul Felder, a durable fighter who has an excellent get-up game and the athleticism to support it. Despite the Irish Dragon having underrated takedown defense, I do not doubt that Trinaldo can get him down in this fight. The problem will be keeping Felder down given his style, and the fact that Francisco’s aggression on top often allows opponents back to their feet. Should Massaranduba get sucked into this type of fight, we could see a point of diminishing returns in his output come the later rounds.

We saw Felder wear down a more talented grappler in Jason Saggo this way in his debut fight 2-years ago(taken on short notice and in Saggo’s home country). Although Trinaldo is the furthest thing from a fighter who breaks, it will be interesting to see him in the later rounds against an opponent who is just as strong-willed, but with a better gas tank and finishing acumen. That said, Felder will likely find himself fighting out of a hole on the scorecards against a guy who is hard to finish, and at home. For that reason, Massaranduba by decision will be the most likely outcome, but I would be lying to you if I said I didn’t sprinkle some love on Felder to get it done late. Ultimately, I recommend avoiding this one and enjoying instead.

Official Pick: Trinaldo – Decision

Official Outcome: Trinaldo – TKO (cut-round 3)

Summary:

In an odd middleweight matchup, Thiago Santos welcomes Eric Spicely to Brazil. Coming off a tough loss against Gegard Mousasi at UFC 200, Santos will look to get back on track with this main card showcase. Stepping in for the away game is Eric Spicely, a recent alum of TUF 23, Eric will look to score an upset as one of the biggest underdogs on the card.

That said, there is not much of a path for Spicely on paper, especially in what most people consider a mismatch of talent. I feel the biggest skill discrepancy will reside on the feet, as Thiago is the more accoladed and proven man. A devastating Muay Thai striker who moves well, Santos shows a complete arsenal of attacks from switch kicks to elbows in close. With his most dangerous kicks coming from his left side, the southpaw stance is usually a sign of an oncoming storm. With that said, closing the kicking distance and getting on the inside will be Spicely’s biggest challenge in this fight.

Usually prodding with a jab or kick to initiate his entries, Spicely tends to do so in a manner that is slightly sloppy. Now I do not mean to be rude in my critiques of Eric, but I would not be doing my job if I did not call things as I see them. Often retracting his strikes poorly or throwing himself off balance, Eric may seal his own fate if he is not careful when entering. Even if Eric makes it into the clinch, he shows a lack of takedowns or wrestling acumen for me to like his chances. Although it is worth noting that Spicely has been spending time with Tristar Gym, he will not be the first fighter from that camp to fall short against Santos.

We saw Elias Theodorou fail to ground Thiago when getting him pressed against the fence, and Elias is arguably a much better takedown artist then Eric. Not only was Thiago able to stifle said takedowns, but the Brazilian also showed to be effective with his elbows in close. Ultimately, this is little more to say about this match as I feel Santos gets it done decisively in the first round.

Official Pick: Santos – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Spicely – Submission (round 1)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card are two featherweights who bring fireworks as Godofredo “Pepey” meets Mike De La Torre. Coming off the first season of TUF Brazil, Pepey has made a name for himself by producing exciting fights inside the Octagon, despite them not always going his way. Looking to bounce back from a loss to Darren Elkins earlier this year, Godofredo will attempt to score big in his home of Brazil. No stranger to fighting behind enemy lines, Mike De La Torre will seek to spoil the homecoming for Pepey.

On the feet, I feel De La Torre is the more technically sound striker with the heavier hands. However, Pepey’s more wild and diverse arsenal has proven potent as well, which could spell trouble for De La Torre anytime he exchanges with the Brazilian. Stalking forward and looking to punch his way inside, De La Torre will almost urge his opposition into exchanging with him. Aside from Mike’s willingness to trade, he also has a tendency to keep his head upright as this has traditionally cost him right hands in fights. Although there is not a lot of craft nor technique in Pepey’s striking, he has been diligently working to improve this area of his game.

Despite the improvements initially shown by Pepey in his last fight, the Brazilian would quickly revert to his old ways shortly after the fight was underway. Feeding off his emotions and pursuing with unabashed vigor, Godofredo would still consistently throw himself out of position whenever stepping forward to strike. Against an eyes-open pocket puncher like De La Torre, counter shots could be extra potent as I see Mike’s left hook being the shot look out for in this fight. Although De La Torre is dangerous with his left hook coming forward, he throws a check hook that I see being particularly effective against an oncoming Pepey.

Aside from Godofredo’s explosive strikes, the key factor in this fight will rely upon De La Torre’s anti-grappling techniques and Triangle defense. An underrated counter wrestler inside the clinch, De La Torre will stifle his opposition’s attacks with his solid base, balance, and defensive fundamentals. Maintaining a good awareness for under-hooks and hip positioning, De La Torre should have a clear wrestling advantage over Pepey, who is officially 1 for 11 in UFC takedown attempts. However, it’s not the takedown Mike will have to worry about as the Brazilian has no problem pulling guard. Despite this technique usually being frowned upon in MMA, the manner in which Pepey executes his guard-pulls is what makes him so dangerous.

As we saw in his fight with Andre Fili, Godofredo needs only but a high-overhook to get his game going into Triangle setups. With Mike(along with most fighters) going for under-hooks out of second nature, Pepey’s transitional threats will be live whenever tangling inside the clinch. Since De La Torre tends to lack an offensive presence in his clinch game, he could allow Godofredo to dictate the action or bait him into a trap. That said, De La Torre works with a great team at the MMA Lab, who I am sure are more than onto the habits of Pepey and how to deal with it. Couple that with Mike’s fundamental hand-fighting shown in close, and I feel that De La Torre’s chances of staying safe are good should he remain sober.

With each man carrying a pension for first round finishes, I am not sure how long this one will last given their sink-or-swim sensibilities. However, the longer this fight goes, the better it will be for De La Torre considering Pepey’s propensity to fade. In a featherweight fight filled with heavyweight intangibles, I recommend playing this one cautiously. That said, I will be siding with the dog as I feel De La Torre’s streak outside of North America will remain intact.

Official Pick: De La Torre – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Peper – Submission (round 1)

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Burns def. Prazeres
• Yahya def. Tanaka
• Formiga def. Ortiz
• Chagas def. Silva
• Ray def. Patrick
• Luque def. Urbina
• Franca def. Gillespie

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