Saturday, November 21st, 2015 in Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78 “Magny vs. Gastelum” by Daniel Tom


Neil Magny (16-4)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’3″ Age: 28 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 80″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Erick Silva (8-23-15)
  • Camp: Grudge Training Center (Denver, CO)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+ All-Army Combative’s Champ
+ TUF 16 Alum
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 5 KO victories
+ 5 second round finishes
+ Good movement & footwork
^ Angles off attacks
+ Excellent conditioning
^ Consistent pace & volume
+ Long & accurate jab
^ Often doubles up
+/-Circles the outside
^ Allows fight to come to him
+/-Gets hurt/recovers well
+ Active ground pressure
+/-Short notice replacement


Kelvin Gastelum (11-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’9″ Age: 24 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 72″
  • Last Fight: TKO win / Nate Marquart (6-13-15)
  • Camp: Kings MMA
  • Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+ TUF 17 Winner
+ State Champ Wrestler
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 5 KO victories
+ 5 first round finishes
+ KO power/heavy hands
+ Hard left body kick
+ Keeps pace & pressure
+ Good volume & combinations
^ Solid uppercuts-hooks
+ Accurate left hand
+ Favors double-leg TD’s
+ Excellent scrambling ability
+/-Willingness to exchange
– Counter availability on entries
+ Durable chin/never stopped

In Monterrey Mexico’s main event, Neil Magny steps in to face Kelvin Gastelum. Magny, who is accustom to short notice fights, shouldn’t be to effected by this quick turn around as he was already prepping for a bout. Gastelum will be making another attempt at a Welterweight run as he’s moved camp to Kings MMA. Looking in great shape and training under Raphael Cordeiro, I expect Kelvin to come into this fight prepared and possibly very improved. Given their styles and this being their first¬†5 round affair, I expect the opening rounds an majority of the fight to contest standing.

On the feet, Magny shows consistent lateral movement as he’ll circle on the outside. Though wielding an accurate jab, it’s Neil’s willingness to operate in that cage space that gets him in trouble. Allowing the fight to come to him will be a bad choice against the striking pressure of Gastelum. From Kelvin’s flowing uppercut-hooks to his hard & accurate left hand/body kicks, it could be a potentially long night for Neil. Kelvin can however be reckless upon his entries which will be Magny’s most viable openings.

Should Magny stay behind his jab and judiciously angle off attacks, he ¬†may be able to disrupt Kelvin’s offense and sway fight momentum(especially in later rounds). Still, despite Neil’s conditioning it’s hard to give him the later-round advantages as he has a propensity to fight to opponents strengths. Whether he’s striking with brawlers or grappling with submission specialists, Neil will allow opposition back into fights that are ultimately full of swings and hard to call. With that said, I expect this fight to eventually hit the floor where I feel each man cancel each other out.

Even if Neil gets to his patent mount position, his floating style has allowed escapes that an effective scrambler like Kelvin should manage. With neither men being huge positional players, I suspect heavy transitional exchanges(unless Gastelum finds the back/commits himself to the floor). In summation, I feel Magny’s nature of flowing with the fight will burn him here. In particularly his playing of the outside which I see inviting & allowing Gastelum to get off where he’s strong. Neil’s well rounded skills and recoverability make him a perennial live dog, but with Kelvin coming into this fight prepared, I expect him to hurt Magny and capitalize within five.

Official Pick: Gastelum – Inside the distance

Official outcome: To be determined

TUF Finale Predictions

  • Enrique Marin def. Erick Montano
  • Horacio Gutierrez def. Enrique Barzola

Preliminary Card Predictions

  • Taylor Lapilus def. Erik Perez
  • Bartosz Fabinski def. Hector Urbina
  • Scott Jorgensen def. Alejandro Perez
  • Andre Fili def. Gabriel Benitez
  • Valmir Lazaro def. Michel Prazeres
  • Vernon Ramos def. Alvaro Herrera
  • Cesar Arzamendia def. Polo Reyes

Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Kelvin Gastelum
-Andre Fili

Low Tier Picks:

-Taylor Lapilus
-Diego Sanchez

Pieces for your parlay:

-Kelvin Gastelum
-Andre Fili
-Bartosz Fabinski

Props worth looking at:

-Gastelum – Inside the distance

Fights to avoid:

-Escudero vs. Silva

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