Saturday, November 21st, 2015 in Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78 “Magny vs. Gastelum” by Daniel Tom


Jussier Formiga (18-3)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’5″ Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 67″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Wilson Reis (5-30-15)
  • Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox . Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Good
  • Overall Fight Grade: B

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ Black Belt Judo
+ 8 Submission wins
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Improved footwork
^ Head & all-around movement
+ Accurate counter R. hand
– R. Hook/body availabilities
+ Solid counter wrestling
^ 88% TD defense
+ Excellent scrambler
^ Always looks for back
+ Transitional ground game
+ Good leverage/positional controls


Henry Cejudo (9-0)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’4″ Age: 28 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 64″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Chico Camus
  • Camp: Fight ready (Arizona)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: B+

Supplemental info:
+ OLympic Gold Medalist
+ Multiple Wrestling Accolades
+ Amateur Boxing experience
+ 4 TKO victories
+ 4 first round finishes
+ Strong in clinch
^ Active hand fighting
+ Over/Under-hook awareness
^ Favors inside trips
+ Improved striking volume
+ Hard right body kicks
^ Often finishing combos
– Shows right hand availabilities
– Hard time making Flyweight
^ Output bares watching


In an important match for the standings of the Flyweight division, Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo are set for battle. With so much hype & heavy implications predicated on his success, Cejudo will look to make a statement and solidify his contender-ship. Henry may have a difficult time accomplishing that as he’ll meet his biggest challenge yet in four-time BJJ World Champion Jussier Formiga. Known as one of the best “back-takers” in MMA, Jussier shows excellent abilities in initiating scrambles in which he’ll quickly & competently capitalizes to catch and control positions. Couple that with his impressive transitional submission arsenal, I suspect Cejudo to avoid initiations or entries into Formiga’s strengths.

Boasting a 100% TD defense rate and not engaging ground stanzas for longer than 50 seconds in his past 5 fights, Henry’s tools & trends suggest this one should be primarily contested standing. On the feet, Jussier has shown fight-to-fight improvements in his overall movements and defense. Still showing to counter fight and allowing opponents to lead, I give the standing edge to Henry’s variety & volume-pressure style. Favoring cross-hook combinations, Cejudo will often finish with hard body kicks(mainly from the right side). Henry has however shown counter right hand availabilities and will need to be mindful as thats Formiga’s best punch.

Cejudo will also have to be careful on overextending his left punches as that’s the side Jussier prefers to slip to as he’ll initiate scrambles(often getting the back or a clinch at the very least). With Formiga being the quickest and most dangerous threat to Cejudo yet, expect the clinch to be the key junction in this fight. This will be a fun clash of styles as both men show their background here. Cejudo shows good over/under-hook awareness as he’ll use solid pressure to drive opponents toward the cage(taking inside trips along the way should they be there).

It will be interesting to see if Jussier can counter this with his more “Judo-clinching style” as he shows good head positioning, hip awareness, and shuffle-stepping(used to avoid & set up clinch TD’s). For my money, it’s going to be the hand/grip fighting that will decide the grappling exchanges. Whether he’s playing inside the guard or striking off cage-clinches, Cejudo shows excellent inside fighting of his hand positions. I believe this will keep him safe in close and his striking should win him the fight. I do however caution plays here as Henry will only be one mistake away from submission/positional adversity. Though I would love to see Cejudo tested technically on the floor, I believe he’ll keep the trend of fighting on his terms.

Official Pick: Cejudo – Decision

Official Outcome: to be determined

TUF Finale Predictions

  • Enrique Marin def. Erick Montano
  • Horacio Gutierrez def. Enrique Barzola

Preliminary Card Predictions

  • Taylor Lapilus def. Erik Perez
  • Bartosz Fabinski def. Hector Urbina
  • Scott Jorgensen def. Alejandro Perez
  • Andre Fili def. Gabriel Benitez
  • Valmir Lazaro def. Michel Prazeres
  • Vernon Ramos def. Alvaro Herrera
  • Cesar Arzamendia def. Polo Reyes

Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Kelvin Gastelum
-Andre Fili

Low Tier Picks:

-Taylor Lapilus
-Diego Sanchez

Pieces for your parlay:

-Kelvin Gastelum
-Andre Fili
-Bartosz Fabinski

Props worth looking at:

-Gastelum – Inside the distance

Fights to avoid:

-Escudero vs. Silva

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