Saturday, November 21st, 2015 in Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78 “Magny vs. Gastelum” by Daniel Tom


Valmir Lazaro (13-3)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
  • Last Fight: Split Dec. win / James Krause (2-28-15)
  • Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: D

Supplemental info:
+ Boxing State Champ (Brazil)
+ 9 KO victories
+ 5 first round finishes
+ KO power/heavy hands
+ Switches stances well
+ TD’s from body-lock
– Head upright on retreat
^ Right hand availabilities
+/-Relies heavily on head movement
^ Uses it to bait counters
+ Solid cross-hook return
+ Good TD defense
? Suspect Gas Tank


Michel Prazeres (18-2)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 67″
  • Last Fight: Decision loss / Kevin Lee (2-14-15)
  • Camp: Coalizao Fight Team (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: D

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ Multiple BJJ Accolades
+ 8 first round finishes
+ 7 Submission wins
+ Heavy hands
+ Favors overhand right
^ Counters well
+ Quick level changes
+ Physically strong in clinch
^ Looks for body-lock TD’s
+ Strong top game
? Suspect gas tank

Kick starting the evening is a battle of Brazilians as Valmir Lazaro meets Michel Prazeres. Given each mans style this one pretty much lays out as your classic “Striker vs Grappler” match-up. Starting off on the feet, Valmir will quickly come into striking range as he will occasionally switch stances. With a loose standing guard he’ll bait opponents in as he’ll look to counter strike. Showing good head movement, Lazaro doesn’t lack in defensive liabilities. In particularly during retreat, Valmir tends to leave his head upright as he’s consistently shown right hand availabilities. This will be especially dangerous against Prazeres, who despite not displaying a large arsenal, bares a heavy overhand right.

Michel being the shorter man standing, will look to counter as he uses his right hand to explode into entry. Possessing natural power and showing improved overall striking, Valmir can’t be over confident in this space. Lazaro is however the better on-paper striker, which makes Prazeres best path to victory on the floor. Michel does an excellent job of changing levels to counter forward striking pressure. This will be his best chances of grounding Valmir, especially considering┬áhis availabilities in open floor as apposed to against the fence.

Once on top, Michel shows a strong positional transition game as he’ll constantly seek out mount. Whether working a finish or riding out the round, this will be Prazeres most realistic way to win. Valmir however has shown to improved counter wrestling as he’s yet to officially succeed a take-down in the UFC. If Prazeres gets take-downs he’ll likely have to work hard to earn them. Couple that with his shown cardio issues & limited striking arsenal, and I have to slightly side with Nova Uniao fighter as I heavily caution plays on this match.

Official Pick: Lazaro – Decision

Official Outcome: to be determined

TUF Finale Predictions

  • Enrique Marin def. Erick Montano
  • Horacio Gutierrez def. Enrique Barzola

Preliminary Card Predictions

  • Taylor Lapilus def. Erik Perez
  • Bartosz Fabinski def. Hector Urbina
  • Scott Jorgensen def. Alejandro Perez
  • Andre Fili def. Gabriel Benitez
  • Valmir Lazaro def. Michel Prazeres
  • Vernon Ramos def. Alvaro Herrera
  • Cesar Arzamendia def. Polo Reyes

Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Kelvin Gastelum
-Andre Fili

Low Tier Picks:

-Taylor Lapilus
-Diego Sanchez

Pieces for your parlay:

-Kelvin Gastelum
-Andre Fili
-Bartosz Fabinski

Props worth looking at:

-Gastelum – Inside the distance

Fights to avoid:

-Escudero vs. Silva

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