Saturday, May 14th, 2016 in Curitiba, Brazil for UFC 198: “Werdum vs. Miocic” by Daniel Tom
Rogerio Nogueira (21-7)
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 39 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 75″
- Last Fight: Decision loss / Mauricio Rua (8-1-15)
- Camp: Team Nogueira (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Boxing
- Risk Management: Good
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ BJJ World Champion
+ Pan American Boxing Medalist
+ 6 KO victories
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 7 First round finishes
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate L. hand-R. hook
+ Hard knees to the body
+ Crafty submission setups
^ Excellent grip/hand fighting
+ Favors deep half guard
^ Creates sweeps & scrambles
– Struggles w/wrestling pressure
? Questionable physical state
Patrick Cummins (8-3)
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
- Last Fight: TKO loss / Glover Teixeira (11-7-15)
- Camp: Kings MMA (California)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
+ 2x All-American Wrestler
+ 2x US National Team Member
+ 2004 NCAA Runner-up
+ 4 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 4 First round finishes
+ Physically strong/stopping power
+ Excellent reactive shots
^ Well timed level changes
+ Powerful forward TD drive
^ Usually takes opposition to cage
+ Solid ground striker
+ Good scrambling ability
– Low hands & often leads w/head
^ Counter availabilities
Serving as the featured bout for UFC Fight Pass, Brazil’s own Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is set to do battle with the American, Patrick Cummins. A legend amongst hardcore fans and his countrymen, Rogerio will seek his first victory in Brazil under the UFC. With his last Brazilian victory coming over 7-years ago, Nogueira has since spent his time battling opposition & injuries in a tough .500-run thus far in the UFC. A frequent visitor to Brazil, Patrick Cummins will look to once again mix business with pleasure as he attempts to spoil the hero’s homecoming.
From Nogueira’s point of reference, he has seen this matchup many times before. In fact, the bulk of his UFC career(’10-’14) was spent facing the who’s who of wrestlers in the light-heavyweight division(Ryan Bader, Phil Davis, Tito Ortiz, and Rashad Evans). Despite showing improvements to his surrounding game and making for competitive affairs, Nogueira’s style ultimately scored poorly within the western scenes of MMA as the Brazilian spent most of his Octagon time defending shots & losing rounds.
Although he has not taken as much on-paper damage as his brother Rodrigo Nogueira, the list of layoffs & surgeries are just as long when looking back at “Little Nog’s” career. Despite coming back strong with signs of resurgence early on in the organization, Rogerio showed a huge change in trend upon his 2014 return when he faced Anthony Johnson. Even though the bout did not last long, the memory of it does due to the horrific brutality of the destruction.
After another year-long layoff, Nogueira would again return to face fellow countryman Shogun Rua in August of last year. In that fight, we saw Rogerio show his intentions of old as he threw his signature left hand and right hooks. However, we also saw the Brazilian legend execute his said game at a much slower & labored manner than before. Despite hurting Rua early in the fight, Nogueira struggled to close the show or continue a consistent pace to see it through. On the positive side, Rogerio looks in fantastic shape & spirits coming into this fight as he will need to be against Pat Cummins.
With his Olympic accoladed past and his freakish athleticism, Patrick Cummins bursted onto the big scene in his last-minute match with Daniel Cormier. Six fights later, we have steadily seen what Cummins brings to the table. Although he has made gradual improvements to his footwork & head movement off strikes, Pat does not hide his intentions of setting you up to take you down. That said, Nogueira has picked up a few tricks in his experience with thwarting high-level wrestlers.
Like many southpaws, Nogueira has traditionally shown to defend standard shot entries easier with the given space differentials, whereas single-leg attempts can be harder to stop as the lead leg is forward & vulnerable. We saw Phil Davis discover this in his fight with Rogerio, as the Penn state alum was able to adjust & outwork Nogueira. Although Cummins shows competent single-legs within his takedown chains, I feel his power-double from hell will make the most impact. Demonstrating excellent timing on his level change, the looming threat of Pat’s power-double will likely check aggressive advances from Nogueira. Although reactive shots usually work better on Nogueira, I feel that Pat’s proactive takedowns will also have success in testing the Brazilian’s hips given the force of drive he applies.
No picnics will take place on the ground as Rogerio should still be competitive given the technical basis to his style. Utilizing superb grip fighting to stifle & set up opponents from guard, the Brazilian shows an arguably stronger plan B as he favors operating from the half-guard. Referred to as “Deep Half“, Nogueira will brilliantly dive a deep under-hook followed by his head underneath his opposition. Not only does this make Rogerio hard to hit, but it also obstructs his opponents base and opens up multiple avenues to sweep. Those will undoubtedly be Cummins biggest challenges on the mat, however, this won’t be his first high-level submission fighter he has faced. Before entering the UFC, Pat was renown as a guy who shut down and dismantled top talents on the mats, as we saw a glimpse of this in his fight with Antonio Carlos Junior.
Although Carlos Jr. has a different style than Nogueira, we still saw a world champion test Cummins with debasing attacks from a 50-50 & De La Riva Guard. If Pat was able to topple that level of talent two years ago, I suspect he will be able to stay safe positionally against Rogerio’s style. As a huge personal fan of Nogueira, I would love nothing more than to see him turn back the clock in his home country. However, even though a diminished Nogueira should still be able to out-box Cummins on the feet, his chances will be slim given that Pat may only be one level-change away from altering the terms of this fight.
Official Pick: Cummins – Decision
Official Outcome: Nogueira – TKO (round 1)
Preliminary Card Predictions
- Maia def. Brown
- Barberena def. Alves
- Santos def. Marquardt
- Font def. Lineker
- Cummins def. Nogueira
- Trinaldo def. Medeiros
- Moraes def. Chagas
- Tukhugov def. Carneiro