Summary:

Headlining this legendary card in Brazil is Fabricio Werdum as he hosts Stipe Miocic in a battle for the heavyweight title. From his legendary upset of over Fedor Emelianenko to his dismantling of Cain Velasquez, you can easily make the argument for Fabricio in being atop the heavyweight history books. That said, the current champion has a tough task ahead as he meets Stipe Miocic. One of the most athletic prospects to rise amongst the heavyweight division in recent years, Miocic will now have his chance to upset an arena as he attempts to take the Brazilian’s gold.

Similarly to my take on Werdum’s fight with Velasquez, this fight comes down to the environment needed for Miocic’s style to be successful, and how those terms factor into Fabricio’s strengths. Similarly to Velasquez, Miocic’s game is heavily predicated on his takedown threats & executions to open up his punches. However, Werdum is so dangerous off of his back that takedown threats are not only nullified but welcomed. Considering Miocic averages 4-takedown attempts per round, it will be interesting to see how Werdum’s unique threats affect the Croatian’s transition game. With Fabricio being able to take that option off the table, it inherently forces his opponents to take their striking to task. And in a pure striking matchup, Werdum has the more dangerous & dynamic attacks on paper.

Werdum is very unique in the fact that he is truly a double-threat in devastating proportions, whether we are talking about his renown ground game or his drastically improved striking. Under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, we have seen Fabricio’s confidence & competency in striking skyrocket since his awkward encounter with Alistair Overeem in Strikeforce. Stringing together punches, kicks, and uppercuts fluidly, it is Werdum’s ability to improvise that is so impressive. What I mean is, Fabricio can not only set you up high to come underneath, but can also change course mid-motion when he senses something awry. This preternatural instinct combined with Werdum’s ability to read & react makes him a very fun technical watch, as we saw these skills in full conjunction with his flying knee execution against Mark Hunt.

Despite said improvements, Werdum still has a lot of defensive holes that Stipe can exploit in this fight. Relying heavily on head movement & defensive-pulling, Fabricio will often keep a low & loose standing guard. Welcoming most oncoming exchanges, Werdum tends to keep a low left-hand that traditionally gets him caught with right hands over the top. With the right-cross being Miocic’s most accurate punch, this will undoubtedly be his best weapon in this fight given that right-hands were the common culprit in dropping Werdum in 3/6 of his last outings. However, many of Fabricio’s falls were arguably flops as he is known for his in-cage baits & showmanship.

Similarly to playing the Matador, Werdum will deceptively roll with punches as he relinquishes to his back. Appearing like a basketball player trying to draw an offensive foul at first glance, this madness has a method on multiple levels. The first being Fabricio’s invitation to the ambush that is his guard. As we’ve seen time and time again, Werdum can not only submit world champions here but more importantly, he creates situations to scramble and sweep his way topside(often utilizing deep-half & X-guard variations). If Fabricio’s opponents decide not to chase him into deep waters, they inherently let him off the hook if he is in fact hurt, or give him a breather at the very least. This tactic has stifled the best of killer instincts and has allowed Werdum back into many fights.

The book on how to beat Werdum was once widely thought to be by pressure fighting against the fence. That said, we have seen Fabricio’s devastating clinch game put those theories to rest with his most recent statement of establishing terms on Velasquez. Although Stipe is positionally sound inside the clinch, he carries less offensive weapons there than either Cain or Fabricio as he relies heavily upon his takedown threats against the cage. I am not so certain Stipe will want to engage in takedowns against the submission ace, especially since Stipe favors a head outside single-leg, a takedown that particularly exposes your neck.

If Miocic is forced to fighting at range, he has more than enough speed & power to change this fights course. However, I feel that Fabricio has a deeper arsenal to pull from, as I see his Stipe’s low priority kick-defense not doing him any favors here. Although Stipe is a firefighter by trade, he may likely find himself in the middle of a four-alarm fire should he not find an answer early. Ultimately, I have a hard time seeing Stipe make it out of the kitchen without being burned.

Official Pick: Werdum – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Miocic – KO (round 1)

Summary:

Serving as Curitiba’s co-main event is a battle of Brazilian standouts as Jacare Souza faces Vitor Belfort. The longtime dark horse to the division’s title, Jacare Souza will look to recover from a setback at the hands of Yoel Romero last December. Standing in his way is the living legend that is Vitor Belfort, as the former champion attempts another late run for the top.

In what is a potentially an exciting affair on paper, may surprisingly be subject to a slow start. With both fighters preferring to counter strike and showing surprising stints of action, we could experience some staring and activity lulls early on. None the less, Vitor should have the intangible advantage early given his drop of a dime killer instinct. Although Vitor is the more technical striker on paper, he may have some stylistic liabilities standing.

Displaying his retention for space & movement, Vitor often slips and operates in heavily left leaning dips. This movement will get Belfort offline of oncoming strikes, as well as set up his left uppercut-right hook returns. However, leaning left at the inopportune time could put him on course with Souza’s intercepting right hand. Demonstrating effectiveness offensively and off the counter, Belfort will have to be respectful of Souza’s improved striking abilities. That said, I suspect Belfort may be more preoccupied with Jacare’s looming takedown threats.

Stepping up his wrestling game since entering MMA, Souza has made notable upgrades to his shot entries and takedown chains. With Vitor only being shot on or taken down twice in the last four years, it is hard to make a fair assessment of where he stands. However, the Brazilian has traditionally struggled with grappling pressure as this seem to be the case most recently against Chris Weidman. I can only imagine how much Souza salivated when seeing Belfort’s lack of hip & posture awareness.

The key factor in this matchup will obviously be Belfort’s ability to avoid grappling engagements. Although Vitor will have the big cage in which to move, Jacare has excellent penetrations on his entries, not to mention reactive shots that may limit Belfort’s attack. Outside a big left hand or kick, I have a hard time seeing Vitor fair well in this fight.

Official Pick: Souza – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Souza – TKO (round 1)

Summary:

Making her long-awaited UFC debut, Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino will fight Leslie Smith in front of her home country of Brazil. Never one to turn down a fight, Leslie Smith was more than happy to welcome Cyborg to the UFC in this catchweight bout.

With insane betting lines that we haven’t seen since the Rousey era, Cris Cyborg will be the largest favorite listed on UFC 198. Although Cyborg is the justified favorite and my official pick, Leslie Smith will be the toughest opponent she has faced in some time. With Smith’s strongest assets being her durability & heart, she may be able to defy the odds long enough to capitalize on possible intangibles.

More specifically, this is Cyborg’s first cut to 140-pounds, which is just five pounds shy of a weight class that she says she cannot make. That said, it will be interesting to see her on the scale come Friday, as that may bear tells to how this weight venture south has been. Intangibles aside, it is pretty clear that Cyborg should have the on-paper advantages in this bout.

However, do not be too quick to count a fighter like Smith out. If there were such a thing as a Diaz sister, Smith would be it as she possesses similar qualities to her Cesar Gracie stablemates. A consistent volume & combination striker, Leslie puts on a pace that can often offset her opposition. Favoring a lead-leg kick to finish combinations, she is also active in striking off the breaks. Leslie’s head does tend to stagnate mid-combination, as she is usually open to counters and traditionally takes damage.

Although leaning on her durability has saved her before, Cristiane Cyborg is not a storm you sail into head first. The Brazilian has always been an explosive Muay Thai knockout artist, but in recent years she has shown the evolutions of a technically refined striker. Displaying improvements from her energy to distance management, Cyborg executes her dangerous flurries much more efficiently. Even though she carries an advantage standing, it is on the floor where I can see her closing this show.

Demonstrating solid wrestling chops, Cyborg has improved her ability to not only defend takedowns but complete them as well. Primarily operating from the body-lock, Cyborg favors lateral drops and foot sweep variations. Although Leslie shows some craftiness on the mat, Cyborg is a completely different animal from topside. Displaying solid positional awareness, Cyborg will transition seamlessly from knee-on-belly to ground strikes. I am a huge Leslie Smith fan personally and would love nothing more than to see an upset, but it is hard to pick against the baddest woman on the planet.

Official Pick: Cyborg – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Cyborg – TKO (round 1)

Summary:

In a crossroads fight in the light-heavyweight division, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will take on Corey “Beastin 25/8” Anderson. An absolute legend in the world of mixed martial arts, Shogun will attempt to maintain relevancy with a win in his hometown of Curitiba. As one of the division’s more promising prospects, Corey Anderson will look the take the next step as he faces by far the biggest name of his career.

As a long time fan of this sport, it is hard to fathom Shogun’s recent state since following him from his 2005-run with Pride. The talent was never a question with Mauricio, as we saw in fast ascensions with both Brazilian Jiu-jitsu & MMA. Embodying the quintessential Chute Boxe style, Shogun stormed onto the scene in an aggressive awe-inspiring manner. That said, we have seen him progress little progress since making his way into the Octagon. Granted many Pride fighters had difficulty adjusting from overseas, and Shogun’s slew of knee surgeries between ’07-’09 did not help, but he was ultimately able to return and score a title.

Although Shogun returned with similar successes, we saw the effects of his Chute Boxe stylings as he steadily diminished in front of us. Since losing his title to Jon Jones, we have seen Shogun come into fights with vast inconsistencies from his lack of motivation to physical state. Even more disturbing, Mauricio has demonstrated a decreasing ability to take a shot, as what’s left of his chin often keeps him in fights longer than he arguably should be. Even though Anderson is not a knockout striker, Shogun’s classic Thai marching may not bode well for him in this matchup.

Displaying excellent distance management as he moves his feet, Anderson’s footwork will likely be the biggest problem for a plotting Shogun. Training under the tutelage of Mark Henry & Co. for the better part of two years, we have seen consistent fight-to-fight improvements from Anderson. Even though his overall output is his biggest strength, it is his transition game that makes him effective. Similarly to his stablemate Frankie Edgar, Anderson mixes in volume & variety to keep his opposition behind the 8-ball.

However, despite Corey’s ever-growing offense, he still has shown defensive liabilities that could see the light in this fight. Like many high-volume strikers, Anderson runs the risk of getting hit early & often if his entries are not technically sound from hands to feet. We saw him taken to task on this in fights with Gian Villante & Tom Lawlor, as both men were able to score big with right hands. Since Mauricio’s right-hand is a threat that is still intact, Corey will have to be mindful in his approach as this will be a live threat throughout the contest. Ultimately, if Shogun can’t get a beat on Anderson early, I feel he will be subject of a stick & move tutorial.

Official Pick: Anderson – Decision

Official Outcome: Shogun – Split Decision

Summary:

Kicking off the main card in Curitiba is fun welterweight scrap, as TUF Brazil winner Warlley Alves locks up with the gritty Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena. One of the more promising young Brazilian prospects, Warlley Alves has made strong statements and impressions thus far with the organization. Warlley will look to keep his undefeated record intact as he meets the always-dangerous Bam Bam Barberena. A quintessential underdog, Bryan will look to score another upset against what is his third straight undefeated prospect the UFC has given him.

Let me first thank you for not immediately condemning my pick before actually reading my explanation. As my positive winning ratio per card and overall would suggest, I do not make an official pick without reason. If you have read my work, then you know that I do not corners in my research as I usually bring a solid evidence-based argument to the table(whether you agree with it or not). I will attempt to do the same here, as I explain my take on why conforming to the common narrative can be dangerous as I feel this is a closer fight than the line suggests.

Although I do feel Warlley is the justified favorite, the jury is still out on this young fighter as his sample size of scenarios are still relatively small. That said, I believe Alves is the more superior striker, wrestler, and submission artist on paper. But as I stated(and as we saw) in my last breakdown on Krylov-Barroso, consistent pace & pressure can unwind on-paper advantages. Even though Warlley shows very few deficiencies technically, his lone knock thus far is that he has the propensity to fade as the fight goes on.

The term “front-runner” can be tricky since it can be used generally or perceived negatively. But the truth is, that some of our favorite fighters fit under this umbrella from Mike Tyson to BJ Penn. I also feel Warlley Alves could be a similar fit to that prototype based upon his fights inside the Octagon. Now again, me feeling that Alves may operate better as the hammer as opposed to the nail is no way a condemnation of his skills. But as we saw in his fight with Alan Jouban, Alves was clearly facing some in-fight adversities that he did not react favorably to.

What I found telling, was that although Alan hit him with solid shots to the body that help turn the tide, Warlley succeeded momentum before the damaging blows ever came. Like many aggressive, out of the gate finishers, we often see the strongest forces lose steam when not able to complete their heavily emphasized objectives. Not only did Warlley’s physical(and arguably emotional) tank fade, we also saw him call for referee interventions multiple times in that match for phantom fouls. That said, I am not here to condemn Alves for that lone performance, much less the controversial decision that followed.

However, in watching Warlley’s fights since, he showed similar tells even in bouts he was clearly controlling. In his fight with Nordine Taleb for example, we saw Alves score a knockdown and takedowns in each round as he dictated the overall pace and clearly won the frames. That said, Warlley still consistently took deep breaths and checked the clock throughout the back end of rounds. Again, these are not condemnations, but they are consistent tendencies you can see when reviewing his UFC tape. Although he out-marks his opposition on paper, that same paper also points to durable pressure fighters posing the most problems for this prospect.

Enter Bryan Barberena, a deceptively slow burn, it is very easy to underestimate him upon first glance. It is also hard to confidently pick his most likely path to a finish, given that he is not your typical one-shot knockout or submission artist. That said, the previously mentioned key intangibles that show to be effective with Warlley is something Bryan has in spades. Not only is he durable, but he is also a solid southpaw striker. Although Alves was able to top his southpaw opposition in fights with Marcio Lyoto & Alan Jouban, he showed difficulty in establishing his punches and a surprising availability to kicks(especially against Marcio in a bout he was controlling). Barberena also throws a deceptive check right hook that could find it’s home on an oncoming, aggressive Alves.

That said, Barberena will likely be the one with a target for right-hands as those have been consistent culprits throughout his career. Being a southpaw the right cross is naturally open, but more importantly, Bryan keeps a low guard as his sometimes stagnant head opens him up for counters. He will have to be mindful of this as he will be playing with fire when comes to the right hand of Alves. With the praise & pontification going the way of the Brazilian prospect, there is little talk of his wrestling as I feel this will be a key factor for a victory here. Warlley wields an underrated takedown game that could help him control portions of this fight and perhaps catch his breath should he not find a finish.

Even though Warlley should have an advantage from topside, Bryan demonstrates a good urgency & technique in getting up or creating scrambles. More importantly, Bryan displays excellent positional awareness as he seldom gives his head & neck in transition, much less from the top or bottom. In facing one of the best Guillotine applicators in the division, these technique tendencies become very important, as I am sure Bryan’s coach John Crouch has worked this extensively with him. Not to mention Alves gets most of his Guillotines from the clinch, a place where Barberena is active with dangerous elbows & strikes off the break. Honestly, I feel that claiming certainty for either side is silly given each man’s sample size and the game they’re playing, as I strongly caution any plays on this match. Ultimately, I stand by my pick as I feel the 5-1 odds in Alves favor turns into a “pick’em” should this fight go past the first.

Official Pick: Barberena – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Barberena – Decision

Preliminary Card Predictions

• Maia def. Brown
• Santos def. Marquardt
• Trinaldo def. Medeiros
• Font def. Lineker
• Cummins def. Nogueira
• Moraes def. Chagas
• Tukhugov def. Carneiro

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