Summary:

The main event for the TUF 24 Finale is a flyweight title fight as Demetrious Johnson defends his strap against tournament winner, Tim Elliott. Widely regarded as the pound for pound best fighter in the sport, Demetrious Johnson will take one step closer to the record books with a successful defense here. However, Tim Elliott will be looking to follow in Matt Serra’s footsteps with an equally impactful upset as he seeks to make a statement upon his return to the UFC.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle of two stance-switching flyweights who can move like few can. With Johnson being the more measured and precise striker in his approach, Elliott embraces his free flowing nature as he is almost sporadic in his movements. In more recent years, we have seen Elliott sharpen his assault steadily as he works well off of a dipping crouch(in similar fashion to Dominick Cruz). Utilizing this technique to feint and bait his opposition out of position, Tim keeps his unique preferences of punches and kicks at the ready.

Coming from a wrestling base, Elliot embodies more of a funk style that seemingly translates well to his footwork and transitional takedowns. Once grounding his opponent, Tim wastes little time in working for advancements. Often encouraging scrambles to capitalize on the chaos, Elliott does well when able to establish a ride position. Favoring a cross-ride position whenever he can catch his opponent turtling, Elliott will insert one leg hook as he secures a cross-wrist grip on the opposite side. This technique lets Tim strike while still allowing him to threaten with different choke variations.

That said, Elliott’s aggression can also cost him as he will often lose positions due to his offensive eagerness. Even in his semifinal fight with Horimasa Ogikubo, we saw Tim lose position repeatedly against his opponent as he even gave up a Guillotine at the end of the match. Against one of the most technically sound fighters in the sport, Elliott will not be able to afford such mistakes as it will make for a short night. As fun as Tim’s transitions are, Johnson is on another level in regards to his creativity and process. A flow master and multi-tasker, there is no better examples of Demetrious’ brilliance then when watching the evolution of his clinch game.

After being dropped in his first fight with John Dodson, Demetrious intelligently adjusted by taking the fight into the clinch. Using a myriad of grips to trips, or strikes into high-crotch hikes, Johnson has developed quite the taste for breaking his opposition in close. Since then, we have only seen these skills sharpen as we last saw the champion dismember an Olympic wrestler within his comfort of the clinch. As much as I could spend time pontificating on Mighty Mouse’s multiple skill sets, I ultimately see his more efficient flowchart paying dividends early and often. Whether Johnson’s speed and angles tax Tim’s low-handed defenses or his superior clinch game takes over, I believe the challenger’s aggression will only bring out the best in the champion.

Official Pick: Johnson – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Johnson _ Unanimous decision

Summary:

The co-main event is a battle between TUF 24 coaches, Joseph Benavidez and Henry Cejudo. A perennial number one contender of the flyweight division, Joseph Benavidez will seek to cement his case for a third shot at the champion, Demetrious Johnson. Standing in Joseph’s way is Olympic gold medalist, Henry Cejudo. Coming off a failed attempt at dethroning Demetrious Johnson, Cejudo will look to get back on the winning track by beating his newfound rival.

In a matchup of two wrestlers who potentially hold ill will toward one another, I suspect much of this fight to contest on the feet. Although Benavidez should have an edge when it comes to striking, Cejudo is no slouch in that department as he has shown to prefer to fight upright in MMA. Consistently demonstrating a stick-and-move curriculum, the former freestyle wrestler displays a surprising fluidity as he rarely throws himself out of position. Favoring left hook-right cross setups, he often finishes his combinations with hard kicks to the body.

However, Benavidez has some brutal body kicks of his own as I favor him in the standing exchanges. Showing constant improvements and evolutions, Joseph employs a much more active and unpredictable style. Consistently changing angles and stances through a series of shifts, Benavidez is constantly dictating the offensive terms. Though still dangerous blitzing forward with hooks, it is his developments in counter fighting that is most interesting.

Primarily standing in southpaw, Benavidez has shown a recent trend to fire off weapons from orthodox. Often stepping back into this stance to give the perception of retreat, Joseph will draw opposition into his counter right hand as I feel it will serve him well in this fight. Often keeping his head slightly upright in both attack and retreat, right hands over the top and off of the counter seem to be the common culprit for Henry Cejudo.

Although Henry shows confidence in his striking, it is inside the clinch where he is truly most comfortable as I suspect he will take it here anytime he can. Utilizing fundamental hand-fighting, Cejudo will subtly stifle his opposition’s offense inside as he delivers a healthy dose of hard knees. Even though I see Cejudo having his best advantages from this space, Benavidez is seldom seen in the clinch outside of terms that behoove him.

Aside from his aforementioned footwork, Benavidez can be difficult to pin down in a clinch due to his awareness of when to leave and when to stay. With that in mind, takedowns may become problematic for Cejudo as he generally scores most of his against the fence. Although Cejudo wields a good reactive double-leg that may help his efforts, he will need to be careful anytime he extends himself due to Benavidez’s looming Guillotine threats.

Despite Joseph no longer training at Team Alpha Male, I doubt that his chokes in transition skills have gone anywhere as I give him the clear submission edge. Even if Cejudo can ground Benavidez, it is hard to see him doing so for long given that Joseph is one of the best scramblers in the division. Transitional threats aside, Benavidez is consistent when it comes to his getup urgency and technique. Although you can never count out an Olympian, I feel that Benavidez is a bad matchup for Henry as I suspect a statement to be made here.

Official Pick: Benavidez – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Benavidez – Split Decision

Summary:

In a potential war in the welterweight division, Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger meets Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal. After a rough stretch of inconsistent performances inside the Octagon, Jake Ellenberger displayed an amazing turnaround in his last fight as he blew away the dangerous Matt Brown. Now looking to get back into the mix at welterweight, Ellenberger is tasked to take on the always game Jorge Masvidal. Although Jorge has only amassed a 2-2 record since moving up a division, those losses were close decisions that came against quality opposition. That said, a win over Ellenberger would cement that Masvidal deserves to be amongst welterweight’s finest.

Starting off on the feet, we essentially have an edge-of-your-seat style striking matchup between a power puncher and a technician. A devastating slugger since coming onto the scene, we have seen different iterations of Ellenberger over the course of his UFC tenor. A deceptive distance closer, Jake has always had a good right-hand despite being amongst the shorter of his welterweight contemporaries. Now working with Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA, Ellenberger was able to show us a glimpse of his improvements in his last fight. Despite Jake’s early success straight out of the gate, the experienced veteran was able to collect himself and get back to the game plan.

Showing stance switches early and often, it was clear that Ellenberger was looking for a liver kick. A weapon that Cordeiro has imparted to many of the grapplers who have studied under him, it was impressive to see Jake take so quickly to the former Chute Boxe coach’s style as he implemented his game plan concisely(something he hasn’t shown to do in quite some time). Although Ellenberger has a history with inconsistencies in his activity, he can pose some real stylistic threats to Jorge in this fight. That said, Masvidal is the more technical man as I give him a slight edge standing. A fighter who has always been noted for his boxing technique, we have seen Jorge Masvidal steadily mature as the rest of his game caught up to his striking.

Confident in his takedown defense, we have seen Masvidal add-in accurate knees and body kicks to his arsenal of attacks. Although Jorge also shares similar criticisms of activity lulls, Masvidal has shown measurable improvements in his output since moving up to welterweight. Working well off of his left hand, Jorge will look to create angles as he tries to encourage his opposition to pull and return punches with him. That said, Masvidal’s comfortability comes with a cost as he seems to be too willing to allow the fight to come to him. Whether he is inside the pocket or clinch, Jorge’s lackadaisical approach to defense often opens him up to shots he should arguably be avoiding.

Despite wearing damage well, relying on head movement and reaction times is a dangerous game to play with a heavy-hitter who is also a deceptively fast distance closer. Even when Jorge elects to keep his shields up, he usually utilizes a shell-defense. Coupled with his upright posture, this typically has opened up Masvidal to overhand rights and body kicks as these are the strikes landed on him most. Considering that those strikes are Ellenberger’s best tools, Masvidal will have to demonstrate a consistent discipline in his defenses for this fight. That said, I expect Jorge to have an inherent edge in exchanges as he should get the jump on Jake’s attacks. A side effect of Ellenberger’s heavy-handed nature, Jake tends to load up on his punches as he preemptively plots before launching an attack.

Given that Masvidal may already carry a speed advantage on paper, we could see Ellenberger get picked apart should Jorge find his rhythm. Despite Ellenberger often being associated with a wrestling background, I give a slight edge to Masvidal as he shows to be the more technical wrestler, both defensively and offensively. Although Ellenberger has an excellent power-double that could certainly ground Jorge, he has not used it as much in recent years and will typically shoot naked(without strikes for disguise). Furthermore, Ellenberger’s aggression that causes him to throw himself out of position on the feet will often translate to the floor.

Even though the drive on Ellenberger’s takedowns is what makes him so effective, the Juggernaut tends to turtle for a beat too long should he fail on his attempts. This tendency has allowed Jake to get his back taken in 3 of his last 5-fights(Gastelum, Thompson, & Saffeidine), and could be something worth watching for in this fight. Although Masvidal is not known as a back taker, he is an underrated transitional grappler who works best from the front headlock. Should Jake find himself turtled against Masvidal, expect to see the patent D’arce choke attempts and arm-in Guillotine sweeps that Jorge uses to put his opponents in precarious positions.

Although Ellenberger has all the skills to control Masvidal on the ground and do damage, I ultimately give the grappling edge to Jorge due to his advantages in transitions and scrambling scenarios. With Masvidal currently having more tools and trends in his favor, I can see why he is favored to win this fight. However, at his current listing price of an over 2-to-1 favorite, this line screams of a trap fight when incorporating the stylistic matchup. Even though I initially sided with Masvidal as I can see him pulling away as the fight wears on, I cannot get around the fact that his susceptibilities standing are Jake’s strengths. As a huge Jorge Masvidal fan, I hope I am wrong here, but I ultimately have to side with what my eyes are seeing.

Official Pick: Ellenberger – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Masvidal – TKO (round 1)

Main Card Predictions:

• Johnson def. Elliott
• Benavidez def. Cejudo
• Ellenberger def. Masvidal
• Cutelaba def. Cannonier
• McMann def. Davis
• Moreno def. Benoit

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• *Maynard def. Hall(*=stated bias)
• Font def. Schnell
• Kim def. O’Reilly
• Curran def. Moyle
• Smith def. Mutapcic
• Clark def. Stansbury