Saturday, November 7th 2015 UFC Fight Night 77: Belfort vs. Henderson



Johnny Case (21-4)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’1″ Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 72.5″
  • Last Fight: Decision win / Frank Trevino (6-13-15)
  • Camp: Power MMA (AZ)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
  • Risk Management: Moderate
  • Overall Fight Grade: B-

Supplemental info:
+   Regional LW Titles
+   Wrestling Base
+   BJJ Purple Belt
+   14 first round finishes
+   15 KO victories
+   11 fight win streak
+   Excellent footwork & movement
^   Sets up strikes & TD’s
+   Strong hips/TD defense
+   Good scrambles/get ups
^   Uses butterfly guard well
+   Accurate right hand
+   Solid top game/G&P
^   Good hand/grip fighting



Yan Carbral (12-1)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’0″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
  • Last Fight: Submission win / Naoyuki Kotani (10-25-14)
  • Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
  • Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
  • Risk Management: Fair
  • Overall Fight Grade: C+

Supplemental info:
+   TUF Brazil Alumn
+   BJJ World Champion
+   BJJ Black Belt
+   5 first round finishes
+   11 Submission wins
+   Active & effective passer
^   works for full/back mount
+   Good G&P shot selection
–    will succeed bottom
–    Hips elevate during passes
^   Space allows guard retention
+   Improving stand-up
^   Good right hand & power kick
–    Shows signs to fade


In another potentially fun Lightweight affair, Johnny Case and Yan Cabral go head-to-head. Cabral is a talented BJJ World Champion coming out of the renown Nova Uniao. Here he has diligently worked on his MMA game and sharpened his striking up. On the feet, he shows his camp’s staple of Muay-Thai stylings. Though lacking overall volume, he shows improved defense, counter-rights, and offensive power kicks.

That said, he does not match up well with Case when it comes to standing and trading. Johnny uses excellent movement & footwork to dictate range, keeping his opponents at the end of his punches. He’s also shown an improved TD/counter TD game, in which he can smoothly transitions to. Though his athleticism translates well with his TD’s in open spaces, he’s shown TD availabilities in the clinch. This is Cabral’s best chance to get the fight in his strong suit.

On the ground and especially on top, Yan is most dangerous. Using good strike selections and a relentlessly active passing game, Cabral methodically will make his way to mount. Should he get here, he poses many submission threats and controls that can at the very least steal the round. However, in his largely “float & flow” top game, he tends to leave his hips elevated. Unlike a rookie who would do this mistakenly, Cabral uses this space to bait overcompensating defenses. For example, from half guard, he’ll elevate his hips in blatant effort to free his leg and pass to side control.

Most people from bottom will naturally try and use this space to get back into the fight. It’s here Yan uses his recently liberated leg to misdirect as he jumps to mount. That all said, Cabrals space baiting style has shown to be stifled as he’s faced UFC level competition. In watching his UFC bouts, opponents have been able to reverse & reclaim guard multiple times. For this reason, should he get Case grounded I don’t think he keeps him there long. Not only being an active scrambler, Johnny also has a very effective butterfly guard(which stylistically poses problems for Yan’s style).

These factors, coupled with Johnny’s ever improving counter wrestling should get him top-side on the majority of grappling exchanges. Here I can see his solid hand fighting and G&P causing fits for Cabral. Similar to his Nova Uniao counter parts, Yan possesses underrated counter wrestling. But with a lack of offensive shot pressure, I see Johnny Case dictating the “where” and “how” of this fight. Unless Yan can shift the momentum early and capitalize, Cases chances only increase given Yan’s shown susceptibility to fade.

Official Pick: Case – Decision

Official Outcome: To be determined.

Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Thomas Almeida

Low Tier Picks:

-Dan Henderson

Pieces for your parlay:

-Johnny Case
-Alex Oliveira
-Chas Skelly

Props worth looking at:

-Almeida vs. Birchak – inside the distance
-Chas Skelly by Submission

Fights to avoid:

-Guida vs.Tavares
-Burns vs. Magomedov
-Andrade vs. Umalatov

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