Summary:

The main event of UFC 202 features a rematch that stems from UFC 196 as Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor run it back one more time. In a last minute shakeup earlier this March, Nate Diaz stepped in for an injured Rafael Dos Anjos with just 10-days notice. Accepting this stand-in, and even allowing for weight accommodations at welterweight, Conor McGregor would take what was his 1st loss with the organization. With the fallout from this event being equally compelling, Conor McGregor will now have his shot at repaying one of the more memorable upsets of 2016.

The hardest part about breaking down a rematch of this magnitude is the thickly spread narrative that has already been laid out. The common-narrative has went from: “How can Nate win with just 10-days notice?” to “How can Conor win if Nate beat him with just 10-days notice?”. Not that either of these statements are not valid, but I’ll try and steer clear of those reasonings for my pick as I will focus this breakdown on what adjustments we could see from both men.

Although my pick was incorrect when these two first met, many of the things I predicted came to light on both sides of the stanzas. Although many, including myself, called for Conor’s patent left-crosses to coat-tail behind the strike retractions of Diaz, I felt that uppercuts would be the unspoken threat as Conor will dust off those techniques against fellow southpaws. Despite McGregor’s conviction to these left-handed shots off of slipped jabs, it was Nate’s steady grasp of timing down the center lane that helped him take over the contest. Firing jab-cross continuums with the snap of a coiled cobra, Nathan will off-set striking rhythms or, as we saw at UFC 196, disrupt a fighter’s overall approach.

With Conor arguably controlling the fight until the middle of the second round, we saw a distinct example of Nathan’s off-beat offense take effect at the 2:21 mark. Although it looked like a jab-cross combo that Nate has thrown a million times before, he broke the perceived rhythm of McGregor as it caught him mid-motion and off guard. What compounded the effect of the blow was the manner in which Diaz fires his cross. Shifting his rear hip forward to accompany the lunge off his attack, Diaz will attach his cross directly behind his jab for cover as this also cuts down the strike’s delivery time. With the initial jab causing a slight disruption to the senses, Nate’s follow-up cross becomes a game-changer when gone unseen.

That said, the side-effects of Nate’s style remains the same as the uppercut will still be a live threat. Often leaning heavily forward on his approaches, Diaz’s posture off his punches inherently allows him to be available to shorter ranged weapons despite his advantages of height & length. When retracting said strikes, Diaz will heavily lean back and to his left as Josh Thomson most famously capitalized on this by timing a head kick. Conor’s chief corner & coach, John Kavanagh, also picked up on this tendency as he strongly urged his fighter to follow-up his left crosses with right uppercuts to intercept Diaz.

To McGregor’s credit, he did try to follow his corner’s advice as he came out for the second round, but Diaz had seemingly begun to grasp the center striking-lanes as this prevented Conor from a proper setup. With Diaz’s defensive habits causing him consistent damage to his right eye throughout the Stockton native’s career, it is hard to imagine that McGregor will avoid emphasizing his left handed attacks. However, if Conor intends on catching Diaz off guard in the punching department, I suspect a shovel hook from the right side will be the punch that holds the most potential given said tendencies. Regardless, as we saw in their last outing, all will be for not if Conor fails to apply an answer to Nate’s control of the center lane.

Once Diaz establishes a rhythm, it quickly becomes difficult to dissuade him at a distance as we saw McGregor’s more diverse arsenal eventually run out of road against the Stockton slugger. Considering that Conor surprisingly uses minimal jabs and check-hooks as a southpaw, I have a hard time seeing McGregor outdo Diaz down the center striking lanes. Instead, I suspect we will see Conor stick to his original approach in the 1st round by mixing in base-debilitating kicks. However, McGregor may forgo the oblique kicks and instead go with more traditional leg kicks as these have been crucial keys for success in Diaz’s past opponents.

Usually using his kicks to corral his opposition, we seldom see Conor throw leg kicks. Although I am sure that McGregor is capable of being effective with an outside leg kick, I suspect the inside leg kick may make for a more likely culprit given its connectivity to Conor’s arsenal. For example, If Conor’s right shovel hook comes off of his left cross, then by nature McGregor will need something to setup said cross to have success and avoid a repeat of his last performance. The inside leg kick provides a low-risk solution to debasing Diaz and also is a technique that feeds naturally into overhands & crosses ala Dan Henderson. Regardless of the Irishman’s approach, control of the center striking lanes will be the key factor in this fight.

Despite Diaz holding the clear advantages on the floor, I feel that Conor’s ground skills have been underestimated grossly if not written off altogether. Now, I am not going to tell you that McGregor’s game is elite, much less a threat to submit Nate. But what I will say is that there are small intricacies to his grappling techniques that suggest a sober McGregor may be able to stay safe in-close. In Conor’s fights with Holloway & Siver, we saw the Irishman’s diversity on top as he smoothly pressured and passed. Although a knee injury made for a lackadaisical display from his back at UFC 189, McGregor gave us a brief glimpse of his bottom acumen at the end of the 1st round against Diaz as he hit a “Curu Curu” sweep variation.

That said, unless Diaz can once again force McGregor into desperation mode, I do not see Conor carrying any intentions of grappling engagements. Although traditional wrestling shots are all but devoid of Diaz’s game, he does have some craftiness inside the clinch that could see the light of day. The utilization of an over-hook will be a key tell for grappling initiations from Nate. Not only will this setup Nate’s patent Uchi Mata(hip toss), but it will also open up trips and guard pulls should Diaz be so inclined. Deadly and proficient in transition, Nate only needs but a moment to shift the fights momentum. McGregor did a great job in their first outing of avoiding Nate’s over-hook entanglements as he was able to break away from clinches early.

Although I am officially siding with Diaz, I believe that Conor has more options available overall to adjust and win this fight. That said, the key to all of Mcgregor’s paths to victory lies within his ability to maintain the utmost amount of discipline. Against a physical & psychological threat as durable as Diaz, Conor will need to upkeep his focus as Nate will only grow stronger should the Irishman slip. Unless Conor’s power can produce a different outcome on Diaz, he will likely need a safe or near perfect fight to earn a decision. But with only 1-bout reaching the distance in a 22-fight career, we will likely have another do-or-die scenario on our hands. Though I have a strange feeling Conor has something special in store, the Irishman’s reliance on defensive trunk movement may once again get him burned should he not find an answer for Stockton’s fire starter.

Official Pick: Diaz – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: McGregor – Majority Decision

Summary:

The co-main event in Las Vegas features the top 2 contenders at light-heavyweight as Anthony Johnson takes on Glover Teixeira. Coming off a pair of knockout victories, “Rumble” Johnson will seek to cement himself once again as the number one contender for Daniel Cormier’s belt. Also considered the division’s most dangerous man not long ago, Glover Teixeira will look to earn another title shot should he add to his 3-fight finishing streak.

Starting off on the feet is an interesting battle of pressure-style strikers. Subtly stalking forward in left-to-right plots, Anthony Johnson maintains a state of constant offensive and defensive readiness. Using said left-to-right shifts, Johnson is already set in motion to move defensively one way in order come back offensively the other. These movement principles keep Rumble in balance and translate beautifully to his kicking game. As seen in his fight with Jimi Manuwa, we saw Anthony throw left power kicks as he counterbalanced this attack with hard right hands from the other side.

Although Anthony’s overhand right is seemingly always on the table as a threat, he may find some success with his uppercut in this contest. Even though Teixeira is no stranger to eating his fair share of overhands, I noticed that Glover’s defenses are a bit lackadaisical to uppercuts on the inside. In fact, all four of his opponents previous to Rashad Evans were able to exploit him inside this space(Jones, Davis, OSP, & Cummins). Though Teixeira took these shots with little issue, Johnson’s power is proven and not to be taken lightly. It will also be interesting to see what Johnson’s kicking selections are for this fight, especially given that Glover has a knack for catching body kicks and turning them into takedowns.

As for the Brazilian, Teixeira also maintains a solid economy of movement as he employs a tight and technical boxing game. Wielding a dangerous right-hand of his own, I feel that Glover’s left hook will be the punch to look for in this fight. Often initiating exchanges with his right cross, Teixeira will create chaos that draws out his opposition’s defense and allows for his accurate left-hand to serve as a cleanup hitter. Training Rashad Evans for Teixeira earlier this year, I am sure that Henri Hooft is more than aware of this as he and the rest of the Blackzilians staff ready Rumble for this fight.

That said, Anthony will need to maintain discipline with his hand positioning as his inherent aggression could cost him if he is not careful. Often in the heat of exchanges, Johnson tends to wind up when chambering as well as retract his right-hand low. Given Glover’s looming left hook, these small windows inside the pocket could be crucial pickings for a veteran fighter like Teixeira who shows wherewithal under pressure. With the standing exchanges between these two destroyers feeling like a heavyweight affair, it will be interesting to see if either man employs a ground fight.

With Teixeira obviously having more motive to take this fight to the floor, we will likely have a further gauge of the grappling improvements of Anthony Johnson. A former collegiate wrestler, Anthony has been even harder to take down since improving the balance of his striking. With Anthony’s defense difficult to penetrate on initial shots, Teixeira’s patent single-legs may not be enough as he’ll likely have to chain his attempts for success. Should Glover ground Johnson, his on paper advantages may not be as big as projected. Working with renown catch wrestling coach Neil Melanson, Anthony has shown improvements to his grappling game in recent performances.

From his top pressure to positional rides, Anthony appears to be embracing the part of his game that has plagued him in the past. Although Anthony has the tools to pose problems from the top, I am not so certain how much he will look to initiate grappling exchanges. Possessing a dangerous Guillotine choke threat, Glover is also an underrated wrestler himself. Using under-hooks or fighting hands and turtling out, Glover is relentless in his reversal and get-up attempts. With the grappling back-and-forths being what traditionally tires Rumble, he could get burned if he plays Teixeira’s game for too long, or trapped should he end up on the bottom.

A smooth pressure passer, Glover is a veteran chef when it comes to cooking his opposition underneath him. Methodically(and brutally) using ground strikes, Glover adds fuel to the fire as he force-feeds opponents to turning into head & arm chokes, or catching them with rear-naked-chokes as they turn away. Although I initially came into this fight favoring Anthony Johnson, I feel that this bout is closer than the betting lines reflect. Not only does Teixeira have more than enough tools for the job, but the Brazilian also demonstrates the durability to contest with Johnson as well as the veteran savvy to capitalize where he needs to. That said, bet carefully and enjoy one of the best matchups on the card.

Official Pick: Teixeira – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Johnson – KO (round 1)

Summary:

**Full Disclosure**: Due to personal affiliation’s with Rick Story for this fight week, I have opted out of doing my usual in-depth breakdown for this matchup. That said, I stand by my pick as I will loosely list some of my thoughts for this fight below.

As I always say, a durable southpaw who can wrestle can be the most potent style to upset fighters inside the cage. With Donald traditionally struggling with pressure fighters, the styling’s of Story could bring these problems to light. Now fully healthy and operating at 100%, it will be interesting to see more from Rick as this will now be his second fight since his return. Reuniting with an old coach of mine, Neil Melanson, Story has spent this entire camp with the Blackzilians.

Not only will Neil’s catch-wrestling style help Story with his overall grappling, but Neil also specializes in Triangle chokes which happens to be Cerrone’s most potent submission threat. On the feet is where Cowboy should have his biggest on-paper edge, but it is hard to overlook to body onslaught Story brings. An underrated counter and combination puncher, Rick will repeatedly rip lefts to the body with impunity. In similar fashion to the shots that Rafael Dos Anjos landed on Cerrone in their contests, this will be the punch to look out for in this fight.

Usually, this is the part where I tell you that Cerrone’s superior kicking game will be a key to dissuading Story at a distance and winning this fight. However, the wild card for Cowboy comes in the form of Brandon Gibson. A quiet storm in the striking department at Jackson-Wink MMA, Six Gun Gibson has been a crucial and cerebral piece behind the scenes to some of the biggest fighters. Coming more into his own, we saw Cowboy have his 1st camp under the supervision of Gibson as the results were evident against Cote.

In fact, that last fight Cowboy turned in completely flipped the sample size we had on him as he looked like a different fighter within the boxing ranges. Showing slicker head movement than before, Cerrone connected it beautifully in conjunction with counters and combination punches. Assuming that Donald continues with this recent recipe, we may see an even more improved Cowboy in what will be his 22nd fight with the organization. Although a Cerrone win would not surprise me, I feel the intangibles Story brings are equally compelling as I’ll be siding with his on paper attributes to score the upset.

Official Pick: Story – Decision

Official Outcome: Cerrone – TKO (round 1)

Summary:

In a potential war at welterweight Hyun Gyu Lim welcomes UFC newcomer Mike Perry. Originally slated to face Sultan Aliev, Hyun Gyu Lim will now meet Mike Perry, an undefeated up-and-comer from the South Florida fight scene. With an injury keeping the Korean Top Team fighter from the Octagon for over a years time, Hyun Gyu Lim will attempt to get back on track.

Although he is amongst the shorter end of the welterweight stable, Perry is deceptively agile and athletic. Utilizing a boxing-based style, Mike Perry will attempt to slip and dip his way inside similarly to a vintage Mike Tyson. Carrying potent one-shot stopping power, Perry will often blast his way inside with overhands as he favors uppercuts & hooks in the pocket. It is in this space where Perry will be the most dangerous in this fight given Lim’s defensive tendencies.

Despite the height and reach advantages Lim carries into most fights, his aggression often causes the Korean to close the distance for his opposition as he eagerly looks to intercept. With a low guard by nature and a tendency to retract strikes even lower, Lim will be playing with fire anytime he lacks discipline inside the pocket. With Lim being no stranger to absorbing right-hands in his fights, I suspect that will be the likely culprit in a Perry victory.

Although most of Perry’s finishes come off of his knees in close, I am not sure how available those shots will be due to height differentials. That said, the renown knees of Hyun Gyu Lim may be more than live in this particular matchup. Utilizing said boxing stance and stylings, Perry will often dip heavily forward and or to his right side. Though this habit allows Perry to slip off the centerline and come back with his noted right-hand, it also puts him directly in-line with Lim’s intercepting knees.

A specialty of the South Korean, Lim will reign down strikes from above as this will often force his foes to come at him from below. Anticipating this, Lim does a spectacular job of shuffling in to land with his left knee. Considering that Perry habitually dips to that same side, I expect that to be the key strike to look for from Lim. Despite neither man wielding a particularly impressive wrestling acumen, an effort from either fighter to get this to the floor wouldn’t surprise me. Although the Korean is the more experienced and diverse submission fighter on paper, Perry shows surprisingly good submission defense from credible threats outside the Octagon.

Perry’s athleticism also translates to his wrestling, as the Floridian appears to be a good scrambler with a natural inclination to get after it. That said, I suspect ground fighting to be a near wash should each man engage soberly. Although I agree that Lim should be the favored fighter, I heavily caution playing him at the current price as this fight is closer than the odds indicate. Although I am siding with South Korean, it is hard to be confident as this is essentially a welterweight war with heavyweight intangibles.

Official Pick: Lim – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Perry – KO (round 1)

Summary:

Kicking off the main card of UFC 202 is a guaranteed scrap in the welterweight division as Tim Means meets Sabah Homasi. Originally slated to face Sean Strickland, Means does not seem concerned with the late opponent switch as he is hungrier than ever coming off of a brief layoff. Stepping in for the injured Strickland is Sabah Homasi, an American Top Team staple from the TUF 21 season. Coming straight off a victory as recently as August 5th, Homasi was more than happy to make a quick turnaround to debut on the big stage.

An athletic and physical force bred by American Top Team, Sabah shows the well-rounded game you would suspect. Though demonstrating a competent wrestling ability, Homasi prefers to make his money on the feet. Showing solid footwork & head movement, Sabah gauges the distance well as he works behind his jab. Wielding hard hook & cross follow-ups, Homasi has more than enough skill and power to pose problems for the veteran Tim Means.

That said, “The Dirty Bird” Tim Means will be the more technical striker by a longshot. Proficient from both stances, Tim primarily operates out of southpaw as I suspect he will do here. Not only does Means have a deeper arsenal to pull from, but the angles in which he creates makes it difficult for opponents to get a beat on the oncoming waves of pressure. Considering that Sabah seems to rely heavily upon the establishment of his jab to get going, the southpaw stylings of Means may pose problems for Homasi in finding his target.

Couple that with Means’ seemingly nonstop pressure and volume, the short notice debutant may have difficulty establishing himself comfortably. If Tim can put Sabah behind the 8-ball early, he will likely force a fight that favors his terms. Although Homasi throws his punches technically with power, Tim demonstrates superb head movement as he is amongst the top-5 at welterweight in regards to striking defense.

Should this contest hit the floor, I expect the action to remain high as both fighters have increased their urgency on top and bottom as of late. With Means showing to struggle with succeeding to his back early in his career, there could be some motive for Sabah to ground Means(especially should he start to get tagged). Should Sabah make his way on top, he shows to execute elbows well from inside the guard. However, Means has made marked improvements to his wrestling, Particularly in his get-up ability.

Showing an urgency to turtle out and stand, Tim has proven increasingly difficulty to control. When Tim is on top, he is a terror as the Fit NHB fighter shows superb catch-like controls. From his excellent top pressure, submissions setups, and strike activity, Tim Means is all offense all the time. In the sport of MMA, you cannot discount anyone as Sabah has the skills to score on the big stage. That said, the division’s dark horse is a tall order as I see it hard for Sabah to make it out of the kitchen without being burned.

Official Pick: Means – Inside the distance

Official Outcome: Means – TKO (round 3)

Preliminary Card Predictions:

• Garbrandt def. Mizugaki
• Pennington def. Phillips
• Lobov def. Avila
• Casey def. Markos
• Magny def. Larkin
• Covington def. Griffin
• Vettori def. Uda

For the complete analysis of future & past UFC events visit MixedMartialAnalyst.com and for future breakdowns & your latest in world-wide MMA news, stay tuned & follow @MMALatestnws MMALatestNews.com

*This breakdown is in memoriam to Rick Budo. An MMA hardcore who touched many in the short time he was here. Rest in peace, Rick. #JunkieNation